2024 Arabin Senate elections
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11 of the 32 seats in the Arabin Senate 17[1] seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Democratic incumbent Republican incumbent Democratic gain No election Circular inset (Windsor): both seats up for election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 Arabin Senate elections were held on December 7, 2024, during the 2024 Arabin elections. 10 of the 32 seats in the Senate were be contested in regular elections, the winners will serve six-year terms in the Arabin Congress from January 5, 2025, to January 5, 2031. A special election was held concurrently to fill the seat vacated by Lucien Orton who resigned to become president. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of term until 2027. Senators are sorted into three classes with staggered terms so diffrent classes are elected every two years. Class 3 senators, who were last elected in 2018, will be up for election in 2024. Other federal, state, and local elections were also held concurrently.
The Democrats secured major victories on election night. Democrats picked up four seats that were previously held by a Republican.
Partisan structure
All 10 Class 3 Senate seats and one Class 1 seat were up for election in 2024; Class 3 consisted of 5 Democrats and 6 Republicans.
Predictions
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe": near-certain chance of victory
| Constituency | Incumbent | Ratings | ||||||||||
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| State | Senator | Arabin News Journal May 3, 2024 |
Political Forecasting May 15, 2024 |
PolitiTrade May 27, 2024 | ||||||||
| Dellcourt | Eloise Carey | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | ||||||||
| Drakeland | Louie Richards | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | ||||||||
| New London | Harry Bradshaw | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | ||||||||
| New Plymouth | Justine Greer | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | ||||||||
| Saint George | Julio Vance | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | ||||||||
| Severn | Melissa Townsend | Likely D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | ||||||||
| Terranova | Gerard Albert | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | ||||||||
| Walpole | Elois Neal | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | ||||||||
| Welwald | Maddison Davidson | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt R | ||||||||
| Windsor (regular) |
Joel Dunn | Lean D | Tilt D | Tilt D | ||||||||
| Windsor (special) |
Jessica Downey | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | ||||||||
| Overall | D - 13 R - 14 5 tossup |
D - 12 R - 14 6 tossup |
D - 14 R - 14 4 tossup | |||||||||
See also
Notes
- ↑ 16 plus the vice president