2020 Scalizagastian federal election

2020 Scalizagastian federal election

August 13, 2020
All 516 seats in the Parliament of Scalizagasti 259 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Leader Sarah Millard Michel Garon Thomas Smith Party Social Democratic Party Revolutionary Republican Party Green Party of Scalizagasti Leader since 26 January 2015 21 December 2015 3 November 2007 Leader's seat Bewundal East Maldati South Torlu Last election 154 seats, 26.5% 160 seats, 28.0% 83 seats, 14.0% Seats before 154 160 83 Seats won 231 111 60 Seat change 77 49 23 Percentage 42.1% 19.9% 10.1% Swing 15.6pp 8.1pp 3.9pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Les Erlosto Moe Trellos Ester Nortust Party New Scalizagasti Party Liberal-Conservative Alliance Labour and Socialist Party Leader since 16 September 2018 8 August 2017 1 June 2010 Leader's seat Jurein North Islander Group Outer Blicamy Last election 54 seats, 9.3% 21 seats, 5.3% 20 seats, 4.2% Seats before 54 21 20 Seats won 50 19 17 Seat change 4 2 3 Percentage 8.9% 4.7% 3.3% Swing 0.4pp 0.6pp 0.9pp   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader Steve Pertillo Guy Manderson Curtis Soeder Party Patriotic Defense Movement Progressive People's Party Aulden Democratic Party Leader since 18 March 2015 9 June 2012 19 January 2008 Leader's seat Palgaroca Interior (lost re-election) Saroya Region Badger Valley Last election 14 seats, 3.6% 6 seats, 2.3% 3 seats, 2.1% Seats before 14 6 3 Seats won 14 8 5 Seat change 0 2 2 Percentage 3.5% 2.4% 1.8% Swing 0.1pp 0.1pp 0.3pp
Prime Minister before election Sarah Millard SDP Prime Minister after election Sarah Millard SDP

The 2020 Scalizagastian federal election was held on August 22, 2020, to elect 516 members of the Parliament of Scalizagasti. Prior to the election, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), led by Prime Minister Sarah Millard, governed Scalizagasti in a coalition with the Greens, Labour and Socialist Party (LSP), and the Progressive People's Party (PPP). It was the second election for Millard as SDP leader and first election as the incumbent Prime Minister.

With 42.1% of the popular vote and 231 seats, the SDP won one of the largest parliamentary victories in Scalizagastian history. Up 77 seats from 2016, Prime Minister Millard formed government with a SDP-Green coalition, no longer needing the LSP and PPP as they did previously. The large gains by the SDP mostly came at the expense of the Revolutionary Republican Party (RRP) and Greens, dropping by 8 and 4 points of support respectively. The RRP dropped to second place with 111 seats and the Greens remained third with 60 seats. With exception to the SDP and PPP, every party dropped in support, although marginal regional gains allowed the Aulden Democratic Party (ADP) to pick up 2 additional seats. All ten parties which had a presence after the 2016 election returned to Parliament.

Background

Following the 2016 federal election, the SDP managed to form a governing coalition with the Greens, LSP, and PPP, despite only winning 154 seats to the RRP's 160. The 2016 election gave the left-wing parties (SDP, Greens, and LSP) a large enough seat share to govern with support from the agrarian centrist Progressives. As the largest party, the RRP was given the first opportunity to negotiate a coalition, but the SDP-Green-LSP-PPP coalition presented their agreement in the middle of coalition talks, forcing the President to recall Parliament before the RRP had finished their negotiations.

The 2016 election also led to the collapse of Scalizagasti's right-wing parties. The New Scalizagasti Party (NSP), Liberal-Conservative Alliance (LCA), and Patriotic Defense Movement (PDM) all suffered severe defeats from earlier elections, where they managed to consistently form government for over a decade. Anger over austerity measures enacted by the conservative government led to success for the centrist RRP, centre-left SDP, and left-wing Greens.

The NSP and LCA were the only parties to switch leaders between the elections. Moe Trellos, a former Garor City councillor, was elected as leader of the LCA on 8 August 2017. Les Erlosto, MP for Jurein North, was elected as leader of the NSP on 16 September 2018.

During the 2020 CAVID-19 outbreak in the Great Experiment, the SDP's quick and effective response boosted their popularity, eventually skyrocketing them to over 50% support. Prime Minister Millard enjoyed a net personal popularity rate of +58 points (76 positive/18 negative/6 no opinion). Ultimately, the Rally 'round the flag effect created by the CAVID-19 pandemic allowed the SDP to gain immense support during the election.

Electoral System

The 516 members of Parliament are elected by open party-list proportional representation in multi-member constituencies. Seats are allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method, with a 3% threshold for parties and a 1.5% threshold for independents.

480 seats are elected in 46 geographical electoral districts, ranging anywhere from 5 to 19 seats per electorate. The other 36 seats are elected through a national list, where each of Scalizagasti's six recognized ethnic groups (officially documented in the census) vote for 6 seats each. If a party wins 260 or more seats, they can govern without forming any coalition. However, this is incredibly rare due to Scalizagasti's proportional electoral system adopted in the early 20th century.

Changes from 2016

As part of the coalition demands by the Green Party, numerous reforms were undertaken in preparation for the 2020 election. Most notably, the voting age was lowered from 18 to 16 years of age. Permanent residents were also given the right to vote, given that they lived in Scalizagasti for at least five years. Minor parties (those with 16 or fewer seats in Parliament) and any extraparliamentary party which earned at least 2% of the vote were allocated 1.5 hours of free advertising on Scalizagasti National Media Corporation. Previously, only major parties were granted free advertising space equalling 3 hours each.

Election Date

The date of the election, 13 August 2020, was set by President Paul Kruig following the dissolution of Parliament.

Unless an early election is called by the government or no government can be formed following the failure of a confidence vote, a general election is held every four years. The last election was held on 22 August 2016. According to the 2000 Election Law, unless an early election is called, the general election must be held in August.

Polls close in electorates at 7:00 PM local time, and results are usually released a few hours later. However, recounts and other unexpected issues have previously caused vote count delays for up to 24 hours.

Campaign

Political Parties

In total, 25 parties stood in the election. However, only 10 won seats in Parliament. The vote share of minor extraparliamentary parties are not recorded.

Party		Leader	Founded	Ideology	2016 election
					% vote	Seats
	Social Democratic Party	Sarah Millard	TBD	Social democracy	26.5	154
	Revolutionary Republican Party	Michel Garon	TBD	Big-tent, Liberalism, Social liberalism, Civic nationalism	28.0	160
	Green Party	Thomas Smith	tbd	Green politics, Eco-socialism	14.0	83
	New Scalizagasti Party	Les Erlosto	TBD	National conservatism, Social conservatism	9.3	54
	Liberal-Conservative Alliance	Moe Trellos	TBD	Classical liberalism, Liberal conservatism	5.3	21
	Labour and Socialist Party	Ester Nortust	TBD	Socialism, Left-wing populism	4.2	20
	Patriotic Defense Movement	Steve Pertillo	TBD	Nationalism, Right-wing populism	3.6	14
	Progressive People's Party	Guy Manderson	TBD	Centrism, Agrarianism, Social liberalism	2.3	6
	Aulden Democratic Party	Curtis Soeder	TBD	Aulden Democracy, Red Toryism	2.1	3
	Sontalirdenna	George Brownley-Ashton	TBD	Regionalism, Milynian sovereigntism, Social democracy	0.4	1
	Reform Party	Bole Yallussi	TBD	Radical Centrism	–	–
	Pirate Party	Lana Matthews	TBD	Pirate Politics	–	–
	Birthday Party	Joe Kerr	TBD	Satire	–	–
	Ecologist Party of Scalizagasti	Frollis Emmullo	2008	Green politics, Green conservativism	–	–
	Holispet First	Walter Baunck	TBD	Regionalism, Haprian sovereigntism, Conservatism	–	–
	Islander Independence Party	Wendy Benemaw	Regionalism, Torlu Island sovereigntism	x	–	–
	Citizen's Party	Odara Samson	TBD	Centrism, Pro-democracy	–	–
	Animal Right's Party	Elizabeth Peric	TBD	Animal welfare	–	–
	Communist Party of Scalizagasti	Anadi Bains	TBD	Communism	–	–
	Liahuan Heavenly Sutai Faith Party	Propi Wechuk	c	Spiritualism, Sutai Faith	–	–
	Universal Basic Income Now	Yandrew Ng	TBD	Basic income	–	–
	Imperial Restoration Party	Joseph Macton	TBD	Monarchism	–	–
	Scalizagasti Feminist Party	Laura Innis	TBD	Feminism, LGBT rights	–	–
	Vegan and Vegetarian Party	Lin Brown	TBD	Veganism, animal welfare	–	–
	The Family Party	Joseph Randy Ronald	TBD	Religious right, Social conservatism	–	–

CAVID-19 Response

Scalizagastian health authorites were first notified of CAVID-19 on 24 February by Kigwari, where over 1000 cases were documented. On 26 February, Prime Minister Millard announced that all travel between Scalizagasti and Kigwari would be restricted. Following the advice of health officials, Millard also imposed a mandatory quarantine on all travelers entering Scalizagasti regardless of their point of departure. While some, such as NSP leader Les Erlosto, criticized these measures as being unneccesary and extreme, it was later determined that this quick action mitigated the early spread of the virus.

The first case in Scalizagasti was reported on 14 March, which experts believe were caused by an undetected asympotmatic carrier of the virus. By 18 March, there were 27 reported cases at which point a national lockdown was imposed and all non-essential travel restricted. ScalHealth was given an addition 4 billion dollars in funding for a rigorous virus testing and contact-tracing program, which helped track the spread of the virus and prevent new cases. Containment measures were praised by international medical organizations for their effectiveness, as specific local clusters were targeted, tested, and quarantined. Hesmaron City, for example, was completely sealed off from the rest of Hesmaron following a small outbreak to prevent spread outside of the city.

An effective government campaign saw Scalizagastian society support the pandemic relief efforts. Daily briefings from the Prime Minister and Chief Medical Officer kept citizens informed and aware of new restrictions or relief programs. Programs such as free masks, wage & rent subsidies, and SPEB (Scalizagastian Pandemic Emergency Benefit) helped slow the spread of the virus and lessen the economic damage from lockdown.

As a result of this strong leadership and quick action, the national lockdown was removed in July after no new infections were reported for 20 days in a row. However, the strict border restrictions remained in place in order to prevent new cases from entering the country. When the election occured on 13 August, there were only 2160 cases with 45 deaths.

Leaders' Debate

There were four main debates hosted during the election. The first was a one-on-one debate between SDP leader Millard and RRP leader Garon, the leaders of the two biggest parties. The second was a four-leader debate attended by Millard, Garon, Smith, and Erlosto. The third was a debate between the leaders of the six major parties (parties with more than 16 seats in Parliament); however, NSP leader Les Erlosto did not attend due to alleged "bias" by the moderators. The final debate was for small parties, which was attended by Trellos, Nortust, Pertillo, Manderson, Soeder, Brownley-Ashton, and Reform leader Bole Yallussi.

The second debate was the most-watched debate, with topics including the post-pandemic economy, the environment, foreign policy, and minority relations. Millard was largely seen to have won the debate, attacking the liberal RRP for having similar policies to the conservative NSP. Millard accused Garon, who is seen as the right-wing of his party, of wanting to implement a two-tier healthcare system where "the rich can pay for good care and everyone else can suffer." Analysts agreed that Garon's response to the charges were weak, and that he was largely the loser of the debate.

Wosede Controversy

On 6 August 2020, private comments made by RRP campaign manager James Wosede were published by the media. Wosede made derogatory remarks against the Torlu Islander ethnic group for their support of Alliance leader Moe Trellos, claiming the only reason Islanders support the Alliance is because Trellos is "one of them." He also remarked that Islanders are "stupid" and "traitorous" for their disproportionate support for the LCA.

The remarks immediately drew criticism from all sides, and Prime Minister Millard called it a "disgusting, racist, and derogatory rant" against both Trellos and Torlu Islanders. RRP leader Michel Garon was also criticized for remaining silent on the matter until three days later on 9 August, at which point Wosede was fired as campaign manager.

The controversy solidified the RRP's position behind the SDP as voters once again abandonded the party. Previously, they had been slowly eroding support from the SDP as the CAVID-19 pandemic became less of a pressing issue. In a Bewundal University poll taken the day before the election, the net personal favourability rating of Garon had dropped to -15. In the Islander Group, the RRP won only 6.5% of the vote, one of the lowest vote shares for the RRP in the Islander Group ever. Political pundits also cited this controversy as one of the reasons for Garon's third electoral defeat in a row.

Results

WIP

Party vote percentage

  SDP (42.1%)

  RRP (19.9%)

  Green (10.1%)

  NSP (8.9%)

  Alliance (4.7%)

  LSP (3.3%)

  PDM (3.5%)

  PPP (2.4%)

  ADP (1.8%)

  Sontalirdenna (0.3%)

  Other (3%)

Map of electoral results.

Highest polling party in each electorate.

The disproportionality of the 2020 Scalizagastian federal election was 3.56 according to the Gallagher Index

Party		Popular Vote		Seats
		%	Change	Total	Change
	Social Democratic Party (SDP)	42.1	+15.6	154	+77
	Revolutionary Republican Party (RRP)	19.9	-8.1	111	-49
	Green Party (GRN)	10.1	-3.9	60	-23
	New Scalizagasti Party (NSP)	8.9	-0.4	50	-4
	Liberal-Conservative Alliance (LCA)	4.7	-0.6	19	-2
	Labour and Socialist Party (LSP)	3.3	-0.9	17	-3
	Patriotic Defense Movement (PDM)	3.5	-0.1	14	0
	Progressive People's Party (PPP)	2.4	+0.1	8	+2
	Aulden Democratic Party (ADP)	1.8	-0.3	5	+2
	Sontalirdenna (SON)	0.3	-0.1	1	0
Others		3.1	-0.9	0	0
	Reform Party (REF)	-	-	-	-
	Pirate Party (PIR)	-	-	-	-
	Birthday Party (BIRP)	-	-	-	-
	Ecologist Party of Scalizagasti (EPS)	-	-	-	-
	Holispet First (HSF)	-	-	-	-
	Islander Independence Party (IIP)	-	-	-	-
	Citizen's Party (CIT)	-	-	-	-
	Animal Rights Party (ARP)	-	-	-	-
	Communist Party of Scalizagasti (CPS)	-	-	-	-
	Liahuan Heavenly Sutai Faith Party (LHSFP)	-	-	-	-
	Universal Basic Income Now (UBI)	-	-	-	-
	Imperial Restoration Party (IRP)	-	-	-	-
	Scalizagastian Feminist Party (SFP)	-	-	-	-
	Vegan and Vegetarian Party (VVP)	-	-	-	-
	The Family Party (FAM)	-	-	-	-
	Independents	-	-	-	-
Total		100	–	516	–

Parliament seats Social Democratic   44.8% Revolutionary Republican   21.5% Green   11.6% New Scalizagasti   9.7% Alliance   3.7% Labour and Socialist   3.3% PDM   2.7% Progressive People's   1.6% Aulden Democratic   1.0% Sontalirdenna   0.2%

Aftermath

Two days after the election, Millard announced a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party. The joint policy document outlined some areas of focus for the incoming government, including publicly funded university, a comprehensive climate plan (the "Green Shift"), rural internet infrastructure, and more. The PPP announced their support of this document for its investments in rural and farming communities, although their support was not needed to form a government.

The SDP officially formed government on 13 September 2020 following the success of their investiture vote. The SDP, Greens, and PPP voted in favour of the investiture vote; the RRP, NSP, LCA, and PDM voted against; and the LSP, ADP, and Sontalirdenna abstained. The final results were 299 aye, 194 nay, and 23 abstain.

After the election, Michel Garon and Les Erlosto both announced their resignation as leader. While there were calls from within his party to step down as well, Steve Pertillo declared that he would lead the PDM into the next election.