2024 Arabin Senate elections
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11 of the 32 seats in the Arabin Senate 17[1] seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Democratic incumbent Republican incumbent No election Circular inset (Windsor): both seats up for election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 Arabin Senate elections are scheduled to be held on December 7, 2024, during the 2024 Arabin elections. 10 of the 32 seats in the Senate will be contested in regular elections, the winners will serve six-year terms in the Arabin Congress from January 5, 2025, to January 5, 2031. A special election will be held concurrently to fill the seat vacated by Lucien Orton who resigned to become president. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of term until 2027. Senators are sorted into three classes with staggered terms so diffrent classes are elected every two years. Class 3 senators, who were last elected in 2018, will be up for election in 2024. Other federal, state, and local elections will also be held concurrently.
As of May 8, 2024, no Senators have announced plans to retire and all are expected to run for re-election.
Partisan structure
All 10 Class 3 Senate seats and one Class 1 seat are up for election in 2024; Class 3 currently consists of 5 Democrats and 5 Republicans. The one Class 1 seat is currently vacant and awaiting a gubernatorial appointment.
Predictions
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe": near-certain chance of victory
| Constituency | Incumbent | Ratings | ||||||||||
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| State | Senator | Arabin News Journal October 16, 2023 |
Political Forecasting October 26, 2023 |
PolitiTrade November 1, 2023 | ||||||||
| Dellcourt | Eloise Carey | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | ||||||||
| Drakeland | Louie Richards | Lean R | Safe R | Safe R | ||||||||
| New London | Harry Bradshaw | Tossup | Likely R | Lean R | ||||||||
| New Plymouth | Justine Greer | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | ||||||||
| Saint George | Julio Vance | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tilt R | ||||||||
| Severn | Melissa Townsend | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | ||||||||
| Terranova | Gerard Albert | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | ||||||||
| Walpole | Elois Neal | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | ||||||||
| Welwald | Maddison Davidson | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | ||||||||
| Windsor (regular) |
Joel Dunn | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | ||||||||
| Windsor (special) |
Jessica Downey | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | ||||||||
| Overall | D - 15 R - 14 3 tossup |
D - 14 R - 15 3 tossup |
D - 14 R - 17 1 tossup | |||||||||
Notes
- ↑ 16 plus the vice president