Aquitaynian general election, 2017

Aquitaynian general election, 2017

8 December 2017
786 in the Commons (394 for a majority)
Opinion polls
Turnout	64.1% (1.7%)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Richard Larrow Nikolas Renaldt Simon Elswith Party Royalists People's Party Republican Leader since 8 December 2017 5 January 2002 24 January 2018 Leader's seat 349th District 221st District 350th District Last election 315 seats, 40.07% 298, 37.9% 63, 8.01% Seats won 298 279 73 Seat change 17 19 10 Popular vote 34,016,700 31,847,850 8,332,950 Percentage 37.9% 35.49% 9.28% Swing 6.7% 5.86% 6.88%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   File:Dmitry Medvedev 2016.jpg File:Al-gore.jpg Leader Ethan Krosch Evelyn Varys Jacob Carlisle Party Independent Socialists Nation First Environmentalists Leader since 16 February 2014 12 June 2016 5 January 2015 Leader's seat 81st District 759th District 101st District Last election 72, 9.16% 0, 0% 38, 4.83% Seats won 74 31 31 Seat change 2 31 7 Popular vote 8,447,100 3,538,650 3,538,650 Percentage 9.4% 3.94% 3.94% Swing 5% 3.94% 1.66%
Colors denote the winning party, as shown in the main table of results.
Prime Minister before election James Zaeir Royalist Party Elected Prime Minister Richard Larrow Royalist Party

The Aquitaynian general election of 2017 took place on Saturday 8 December. Each of the 786 constituencies elected one Member of Parliament (MP) to the House of Commons. Under the guidelines set forth in the constitution, the election was held on time.

The Royalist Party, which had governed as a senior coalition partner from 2014 was defending a working majority of 17 seats against the People's Party, the official opposition led by Kirk Macklin. The Royalist Party viewed the election as the best opportunity to secure its hold on a majority in parliament and continue its agenda into 2020.

Opinion polls had shown consistent leads for the Royalist Party over the People's Party. However, the polls were much closer than in previous elections, with widespread national discontent with the Royalists' handling of various situations under the Zaeir administration. Consequently, polling for non-traditional party platforms like the Republican Party was much higher than in past elections. In final results that surprised many, the Royalist Party came away with a net loss of 17 seats with 37.9% of the vote, a 6.7% decrease from the last election - a huge indicator as to large discontent nationwide about Royalist policies. The People's Party came away with a larger loss than the Royalists, losing a total of 19 seats with 35.49% of the vote, a 2% decrease from the last election. The Republicans came away with a huge win, gaining 10 seats with 9.28% of the vote, its largest share to date. The ISP came away with a 2 seat increase with 9.4% of the vote, its largest share in over three decades. The Environmentalists lost 7 seats with 3.94% of the vote, its biggest loss since 2006.

The most surprising result out of the entire election, however, was the success of the Nation First movement in securing seats in parliament. Opinion polling had estimated Nation First to gain between five to ten seats in parliament, but actual voter turnout for the party shattered projections. With 3.94% of the vote, Nation First secured 31 seats in parliament, matching the long-standing Environmentalist party for seats. The right-wing organization was not given much credence during the campaigns, which may have played into its success.

Electoral system

Each parliamentary constituency of Aquitayne elects one MP to the House of Commons using the STV system. If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government, with its leader as Prime Minister. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a minority government or a coalition.

Voting eligibility

To vote in the general election, one had to be:

• a registered voter;
• aged 18 or over on polling day;
• be an Aquitaynian citizen with single or dual citizenship;
• a resident at an address in Aquitayne or an Aquitaynian territory, or an Aquitaynian citizen living abroad who has been registered to vote in Aquitayne within the past 15 years and;
• not legally excluded from voting (felony convictions may carry a sentence of revocation of the right to vote for some convicted criminals, for example, or any criminals at large)

Individuals had to be registered to vote by midnight 14 days before voting day (8 December). A person who has two homes (such as a university student with a term-time address and lives at home during holidays) may be registered to vote at both addresses, provided they are in separate districts, and can only vote in one constituency per election.

In the lead-up to this election, it was estimated that over 2 million Aquitaynians between 18 and 35 registered to vote before the deadline, and over 200,000 were under the age of 22.

Date and cost of election

Timetable

18 June	Prime Minister James Zaeir formally announces election date
19 June	MPs voted to dissolve Parliament
23 June	Royal Proclamation under Article II of the Constitution issued to formally dissolve parliament
23 June	Royal proclamation was issued summoning a new Parliament
24 July	Deadline (5pm) for the delivery of candidate nomination papers
24 July	Deadline (7pm) for the publication of the Statement of Nominated Persons
1 August	Earliest date where polling officers could issue polling cards to voting locations
1 September	Party primaries are held if more than one candidate for a single party files candidacy papers within the deadline in the same district as another candidate
20 September	Advertising gag closes
15 November	Deadline for proxy votes to be submitted in the mail (verified by postal stamp)
24 November	Deadline (5pm) for the public to register to vote
8 December	Voting day (polling stations opened at 8am and closed at 9pm or once voters present in a queue at or outside the polling station at 9pm had cast their vote). Counting of votes started no later than 2am on 9 December.
18 December	Parliament re-assembled
25 December	State Opening of Parliament

Cost

The cost to the taxpayer of organizing the election was $160 million NSD - slightly less than the previous election in 2014, which cost taxpayers $171 million NSD.

Parties and candidates

Unlike in other countries throughout the world, independent candidates are not authorized to run for parliament. They may, however, run in local elections. This guideline is due to the Parliamentary Standardization Act of 1894, which states that any candidate running for office in parliament must be registered with a traditional political party. Such a party can be registered with the government after 5,000 membership signatures are collected, a party head elected from the signers, and a party office established.

The leader of the party commanding a majority of support in the House of Commons is the person who is called on by the monarch to form a government as Prime Minister, while the leader of the largest party not in government becomes the Leader of the Opposition. Other parties also form shadow ministerial teams, which follow the current Prime Minister and create policy decisions based on the party's values.

The Royalist Party and the People's Party have been the two biggest parties since the creation of the modern state of Aquitayne in 1741, and have supplied all Prime Ministers since 1936. The Royalist Party changed their leader just before the 2017 election during the May Royalist Convention, where the current Prime Minister, Richard Larrow, announced and secured his place as the head of the party. The People's Party changed their leader after the disappointing results of the 2017 election, ousting longtime chairman Kirk Macklin and replacing him with a younger candidate, Nikolas Renaldt. The leadership of the Environmentalist coalition remained in tact, and the leadership of the Republicans also changed hands just before the election, being handed over to a very young and charismatic Simon Elswith. Nation First also secured its place as a legitimate force in parliament for the next three years, with it being the first new political party in parliament with over 10 seats in a decade. Some of the smaller registered parties chose not to seriously run any candidates during this cycle, as they focused on local elections in 2018.

Candidates

4,102 candidates stood for election, up from 4,076 in the previous general election in 2014. The Royalist Party held candidates in 762 districts, the People's Party in 769, the Republicans in 489 districts (up from 423), the ISP in 523 (down from 612), and the Environmentalists in 392 districts (up from 345). Nation First had 482 registered candidates in this election cycle, almost four times the amount predicted by political analysts at the time. There were a total of 782 contested districts during the election, with only four districts reporting a single candidate or only multiple candidates from the same party running.

Party selection process

As is typical of general election cycles, the national franchise of each political party will create a selection process for finding potential candidates to run that align well with the party platform and who have an excellent chance of winning a seat in parliament.

For the Royalist Party, local affiliate branches were tasked with finding members of their community whom they believed would stand the best chance of winning an election and who also would represent the party values. The national branch was responsible for handling vetting and receiving of candidate profiles, but the Royalist Party has kept its grassroots method for finding candidates since the early 1950's. Standing members of parliament who wished to run again were given preference over any potential candidate running against them under the Royalist Party name, which often lead to primaries being held locally to determine who stood a better chance of beating a contender. In the 2017 Royalist Party primaries, only 24 incumbent candidates lost the primary to a newcomer.

The People's Party, after the dissolution of parliament, immediately required sitting MPs to state their intention to stand, and automatically re-selected those that wanted to run again. The party then advertised for party members to reach out and announce interest a few weeks before the filing deadline to ensure background checks and vetting could be completed.

Nation First almost selectively chose candidates who had attended the First Nation First Congress in June of 2016, and pre-selected those members who chose to run. Otherwise, it allowed local offices to reach out to potential candidates and allow the national office to conduct vetting procedures. Nation First took advantage of discontent in rural and urban areas where jobs had been lost to seize on weak showings by the Royalists and People's Party candidates.

Campaign

Television debates

As is standard with all Aquitaynian general and snap elections, a series of debates were set up with all of the major parties in the lead-up to voting day after the advertising gag closed on 20 September. In a controversial decision made by the Atreum Terrae in 1992, they ruled not only that advertising gags did not infringe on the freedom of speech granted by Section IV of Article VI in the Aquitaynian constitution, and that debates did constitute advertisement. Thus, any televised debate must occur after the advertising gag closed.

During this election cycle, as is traditional for most elections, the Aquitaynian News Network, Aquitayne's largest private news corporation, and the National Broadcasting service hosted the majority of debates throughout the country. The first debate was scheduled for just two days after the advertising gag closed, on 22 September, with the four major parties being invited. Notably, Nation First was not invited to the first debate, as there were still doubts in the news media that they were a serious contender.

Public Access hosted the second debate of the cycle, with all parties being invited, but the Royalist delegation being absent due to Richard Larrow being engaged at a party fundraiser. This debate was notable as it pitted traditional choices against a newcomer, Nation First, who's Evelyn Varys performed better than analysts had predicted. The right-wing nationalist group lauded her success at shutting down People's Party leader Nikolas Renaldt multiple times throughout the night.

As is customary, ANN hosted a series of specified debates towards the end of the debate cycle, highlighting key issues in the upcoming vote. The first debate, named The Third View, ignored the major Royalist and People's Party candidates, and focused solely on third-party options. The debate was highly viewed, and is considered a direct reason why both the Royalist Party and People's Party lost seats during this election.

The second specified debate was the opposite of the first, a town hall meeting with the leadership from the Royalists and People's Party. The debate focused on domestic issues surrounding healthcare, gun reform, taxes, and economic health. The debate was toned down compared to the others, and it was widely acclaimed as to how both candidates treated one another while in the spotlight.

The third specified debate was entitled David v. Goliath, and focused on the Royalist Party debating third-party options. The debate quickly spiraled into the third-party candidates lamenting at Royalist policies over the last six years, and Richard Larrow spent the majority of the night on the defense. The result was not what many had expected, though, with polls indicating that people favored Larrow more than they had before the debate since they felt he had been ambushed.

The second to final debate focused solely on foreign policy, and forced Richard Larrow to announce major policy shifts in Royalist planning to combat the almost unified assault he was facing from the other candidates on-stage. Larrow spent the night defending his predecessors actions in Insula Fera and the Western Tundra, while the Republican Party candidate, Simon Elswith, attacked Larrow for his participation in gathering the votes that sent the nation to war.

The final debate was broadcast by the National Broadcasting Service, and focused on general topics regarding the election.

Aquitayne general election debates, 2017
Date	Organisers	Venue	P  Present    S  Surrogate    NI  Non-invitee   A  Absent invitee
			Royalists	People's Party	Republicans	ISP	Nation First	Environmentalists
22 September	ANN	Telora	P Larrow	P Renaldt	A	P Krosch	NI	NI
28 September	Public Access	University of Telora, Telora	A	P Renaldt	P Elswith	P Krosch	P Varys	P Carlisle
4 October	ANN	Acril	P Larrow	P Renaldt	P Elswith	P Krosch	P Varys	P Carlisle
10 October	NBS	Cape Town	P Larrow	P Renaldt	NI	NI	NI	NI
16 October	ANN	Tacor	S Strömberg	P Renaldt	NI	P Krosch	NI	NI
22 October	NBS	Telora	NI	NI	P Elswith	P Krosch	P Varys	P Carlisle
25 October	NBS	Helm	P Larrow	A	P Elswith	P Krosch	A	P Carlisle
30 October	NBS	University of Acril, Acril	S Strömberg	P Renaldt	A	S Madore	P Varys	P Carlisle
3 November	ANN (The Third View)	Espir	NI	NI	P Elswith	P Krosch	P Varys	P Carlisle
9 November	ANN (Town Hall)	Telora	P Larrow	P Renaldt	NI	NI	NI	NI
14 November	ANN (David v.s Goliath)	Atlium	P Larrow	NI	P Elswith	P Krosch	P Varys	A
20 November	ANN (Foreign Policy)	Sanuan	P Larrow	P Renaldt	P Elswith	P Krosch	P Varys	P Carlisle
1 December	NBS (Election Wrap Up)	Cape Town	S Strömberg	S Lorrick	S Gunnarsson	S Madore	A	S Fitzgerald

Politicians not standing

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election

MP	Seat	First elected	Party		Date announced
Edward Davies	691st District	1987		Royalists	24 June 2017
Michael Chavez	421st District	2008		People's Party	19 June 2017
Nancy Danielsson	133rd District	2010		People's Party	18 July 2017
Victor Hermansen	405th District	1984		Republicans	19 June 2017
Vladimir Kristiansen	288th District	1996		ISP	24 June 2017
Yuusou Shintani	263rd District	1999		Royalists	25 June 2017

Opinion polling and seat projections

Main article: Opinion polling for the Aquitaynian general election, 2017

In the 2017 general election, polling companies underestimated the Royalist Party vote and overestimated the People's Party vote, and largely ignored the rapid popularity of Nation First, thus failing to predict the election results accurately.

Aquitaynian opinion polling for the 2017 election; moving average is calculated from the last 5 polls. Final point is the actual election result. Polling for Nation First did not begin until after the First Nation First Congress in June, 2016.

Predictions three weeks before the vote

The single transferable vote system used in Aquitaynian elections means that the number of seats won is directly related to vote share. Thus, election predictions can be reliably made prior to voting day in most traditional districts. The table below highlights predictions from three weeks away from voting day from four of the major political predictors.

Parties		Wright & Apollo as of 17 November 2017	Electoral Monitors as of 15 November 2017	ANN Predictions as of 21 November 2017	National Polling Center as of 16 November 2017
	People's Party	395	410	394	400
	Royalists	258	268	247	284
	Republicans	73	84	62	55
	ISP	100	74	82	66
	Nation First	25	15	11	6
	Environmentalists	34	22	15	11
Overall result (probability)		People's Party majority (67%)	People's Party majority (78%)	People's Party majority (62%)	People's Party majority (54%)

Predictions two weeks before the vote

Parties		Wright & Apollo as of 28 November 2017	Electoral Monitors as of 29 November 2017	ANN Predictions as of 27 November 2017	National Polling Center as of 27 November 2017	Telora Tribune as of 24 November 2017
	People's Party	395	402	405	399	400
	Royalists	270	241	205	188	256
	Republicans	81	90	47	59	70
	ISP	102	84	73	77	81
	Nation First	30	29	25	18	33
	Environmentalists	37	31	24	26	19
Overall result (probability)		People's Party majority (73%)	People's Party majority (81%)	People's Party majority	People's Party majority	People's Party majority

Predictions one week before the vote

Parties		Wright & Apollo as of 1 December 2017	Electoral Monitors as of 3 December 2017	ANN Predictions as of 2 December 2017	National Polling Center as of 2 December 2017	Telora Tribune as of 2 December 2017
	People's Party	382	391	375	321	284
	Royalists	249	279	300	298	277
	Republicans	73	94	87	49	56
	ISP	100	91	82	64	73
	Nation First	26	30	18	21	32
	Environmentalists	34	28	19	20	15
Overall result (probability)		Hung parliament (99%)	Hung parliament (95%)	Hung parliament (92%)	Hung parliament (99%)	Hung parliament (97%)

Predictions on voting day

Aquitayne's single transferable vote system means that national shares of the vote do not give an exact indicator on how many seats a party will be granted in parliament. Different polling companies use different metrics to analyze the probability of certain candidates winning in certain districts based on exit polling, and reflect that in how parties will be represented in Parliament:

Parties		2014 election result	Wright & Apollo as of 8 December 2017	Electoral Monitors as of 8 December 2017	ANN Predictions as of 8 December 2017	National Polling Center as of 8 December 2017	Telora Tribune as of 8 December 2017	Aquitayne Decides as of 8 December 2017	YourChoice as of 8 December 2017
	People's Party	298	394	398	401	403	399	374	394
	Royalists	315	254	268	247	274	266	284	295
	Republicans	63	44	50	55	40	52	44	33
	ISP	72	63	70	24	15	25	42	35
	Nation First	0	11	0	29	33	24	21	11
	Environmentalists	38	20	0	30	21	20	21	18
Overall result		Hung parliament	People's Party majority	People's Party majority of 4	People's Party majority of 7	People's Party majority of 9	People's Party majority of 3	Hung Parliament (PP 20 seats short)	People's Party majority

• Wright & Apollo maintains a live poll counter on its website.
• Electoral Monitors announces major updates live via Twitter, Facebook, and other social media platforms.
• ANN Predictions is live from 7am to 2am on 9 December announcing polling data and exit polls as the vote went on.
• The National Polling Center announced live updates to predictions via Twitter, Facebook, and their website throughout voting day.
• The Telora Tribune announced updates live via their Facebook page, Twitter, and website.
• Aquitayne Decides, a non-profit election watcher, announced major updates via Twitter and streamed a podcast throughout the day.
• YourChoice, a Royalist-funded election watchdog, stayed live on their website with breaking updates via an internet news broadcast.

Exit Poll

An exit poll conducted by the National Polling Center on behalf of ANN, the Telora Tribune, and YourChoice, was published at the end of voting at 9pm, predicting the number of seats for each party, with what became a shocking announcement of the Royalist Party retaining their majority in Parliament, but vastly short of a majority. Actual results were closer to the exit poll prediction than any predictions made prior.

Parties		Seats	Change
	Royalists	299	16
	People's Party	285	13
	Republicans	68	5
	ISP	70	2
	Nation First	31	31
	Environmentalists	33	5
Royalists 95 short of a majority

Results

After all 786 constituencies had been declared, the results were:

298	31	31	73	74	279
Royalist	E N	N F	R E	I S P	People's Party

Party		Leader	MPs				Votes
				Of total		±		Of total		±
Royalist Party		Richard Larrow	298	7001379000000000000♠37.9%	298 / 786	17	34,016,700	37.9%		2.14
People's Party		Nikolas Renaldt	279	7001355000000000000♠35.5%	279 / 786	19	31,847,850	35.49%		2.41
ISP		Ethan Krosch	74	7000940000000000000♠9.4%	74 / 786	2	8,447,100	9.4%		0.24
Republicans		Simon Elswith	73	7000930000000000000♠9.3%	73 / 786	10	8,332,950	9.28%		1.27
Nation First		Evelyn Varys	31	7000390000000000000♠3.9%	31 / 786	31	3,538,650	3.94%		3.94
Environmentalists		Jacob Carlisle	31	7000390000000000000♠3.9%	31 / 786	7	3,538,650	3.94%		1.66
Christian Rights Party		Jessica Albright	0	5000000000000000000♠0.0%	0 / 786		25,813	0.0%		N/A
Abolish the Monarchy Party		Thomas Cooper	0	5000000000000000000♠0.0%	0 / 786		153,548	0.17%		N/A
Constitutional Reform Party		Harris Ewing	0	5000000000000000000♠0.0%	0 / 786		89,315	0.9%		N/A
Others		N/A	0	5000000000000000000♠0.0%	0 / 786		5,447	0.0%		N/A
Total			786	100%			89,996,023