Kainan Crisis

Kainan Crisis
Part of Swahili Spring
Protestors in the streets of Tokoya, Kainan
Date	2021
Location	Kainan
Caused by	Authoritarianism Economic exploitation Human rights violations Dayashinese imperialism Stratification Separatism Racism Poverty
Goals	Regime change Human rights Economic freedom
Methods	Civil disobedience Civil resistance Protests Riots Internet activism Insurgency Urban warfare Uprising
Status	ongoing
Parties to the civil conflict
Kainan Dayashina Themiclesia Freedom League IUFOI Native State New Generation Vanguard Various local insurgencies
Casualties
752 killed (670 Kainan, 81 Dayashina, 1 Themiclesia) 17,000+ killed (9,000+ Native State insurgents)
3,000+ civilians killed Hundreds of thousands of civilians displaced

The Kainan Crisis is an ongoing series of anti-government protests, riots, and armed insurgencies taking place in Kainan in 2021. The movement has been organised against the repressinve Inui regime in Kainan, which enforces policies that maintain high levels of inequality between the country's ruling classes and its much larger working classes. Major issues which led to the beginning of the protests in Kainan include racism, economic stratification, and labour exploitation.

Timeline of protest and insurgency period

March 2021

Protests erupt in Tokoya, Kumamoto, Okamachi, and Hyogo against repression of the indigenous population of Kainan by the ethnic Dayashinese and half Dayashinese ruling classes
Protestors start a massive social media movement to share information about oppression in Kainan

April 2021

Protests grew in size and area covered, with isolated instances of violence and non-lethal force undertaken by police against protestors
Kainan reinforces police barricades with military and paramilitary personnel and equipment in response to protestors threatening to pour into businesses, public facilities, and ethnically Dayashinese priveleged neighbourhoods
Dayashina issued a recall for all Dayashinese citizens in Kainan to return home within two weeks, under threat of violence
Kainanese military and police secured embassy district in Tokoya, blocking it off from protestors
Kainanese military undertook a probing offensive against separatist factions inland, utilising loitering munitions and drone strikes to seize control of a number of separatist checkpoints

May 2021

Situation escalated as protestors attempted to seize control of University of Tokoya, Maya Financial Tower, and multiple Shijukunese luxury auto dealerships - police responded with excessive force and mass arrests
Separatist activity in inland provinces decreases notably following Kainanese offensive
Native State insurgents infiltrated the Tokoya protests, escalating violence, recruiting, and attempting to seize narrative control of the protest movement at large
Following confirmed reports of Native State infilitrations, Kainanese military and police successfully undertook a concerted effort to push protests out of city centres and into surrounding slums in Tokoya, Kumamoto, Okamachi, and Hyogo
Moderate reformist leader Manuel Ngombele forced into hiding amidst immediate threats from Native State and from government-associated paramilitaries, but vowed to remain active in leading the protest movement via social media
Dayashina declared it's support for Ngombele and his moderate reformist faction and hinted at preparedness to intervene in their favour and against "insidious and destabilising radical insurgent groups"
President Akio Inui declared martial law on 21 May, 2021
Following the martial law declaration, protests steadily devolved into full-blown street to street combat over the course of late May, with insurgent groups and associated civilians in engagement with Kainanese government forces in the slums of the nation's largest cities
Internal unrest within the Kainanese one ruling party mounted amidst the fighting as it factionalised on the question of compromise and foreign intervention

June 2021

Inui regime purged 34 members of the ruling party for yet undisclosed reasons, but likely due to aforementioned factionalisation
Fighting intensified across the board in city slums as Kainanese ground forces became bogged down in door-to-door fighting, whilst civilian casualties rapidly escalated as a result of reckless actions taken on both sides, including but not limited to airstrikes and VBIED attacks in densely populated environments
As regime forces steadily retreated from several locations in rural and suburban Kainan to direct attention to the cities, multiple insurgent groups including Native State and New Generation Vanguard gained territory left abandoned by the regime
On 11 June, President Akio Inui formally called upon Dayashina to intervene to stop the situation from deteriorating any further
On 12 June, Prime Minister Daichi Noru of Dayashina announced his intent for Dayashina to intervene in Kainan primarily against radical insurgent and separatist groups and in favour of the ideals espoused by Manuel Ngombele and the moderate reformist faction
The Dayashinese Ministry of Defence confirmed that they had outlined a plan to undertake a comprehensive combined arms operation to destroy several insurgent groups, re-establish order, and facilitate humanitarian aid as well as human rights focused reforms

Intervention period

A transport aircraft carrying Dayashinese soldiers takes off from Nakatosa AB en route to Kainan

On 1 July 2021, the Republic of Dayashina Air Force began a widespread bombing campaign on insurgent positions around major cities of Kainan, and most importantly around the Sakai International Airport, which had been under heavy attack by Native State and NGV elements for weeks. Launching mostly from RDAF bases in Sundan, the bombing campaign would mark the beginning of full Dayashinese intervention in the crisis and continue through the rest of the conflict. On 25 July 2021, a Republic of Dayashina Navy amphibious assault group combined with a Themiclesian Navy humanitarian aid group would reach their final destination for operations in Kainan. RDN Marines landed in Kainan alongside a limited Themiclesian ground presence for aid distribution and inspection. As the ground elements from the amphibious assault group disembarked, aerial coverage would intensify as STOVL fighters and attack helicopters joined the bombing efforts, with transport helicopters ferrying soldiers and equipment. RDAF transport and fighter aircraft began to land in safe and newly expanded Kaianense military bases. Dayashinese military elements furthermore established temporary outposts and fixed positions in safe Kainanese city centres and worked to reinforce barriers separating those areas. Naval AAW assets were reported ready to respond to the possibility of insurgent ballistic missile strikes on civilian targets. RDN Marines reported their first engagement with hostile forces on 27 July 2021 in the slums of Tokoya.

Throughout mid to late 2021, Dayashinese forces led a combined arms operation, supported by elements of Kainanese military forces under transitional government command. RDN Marines led an effort to pacify major Kainanese cities as well as geographically important villages in a series of urban close combat operations taking place over the course of 6 months. Dayashinese and Kainanese force elements established sweeping control over critical connecting infrastructure such as roads and rail, and retain a presence in Kainanese cities and notable villages in order to facilitate the delivery of aid by Themiclesian forces and foster regional stabilisation in preparation for the formal transfer of power to Manuel Ngombele and his Native Moderate faction.

In early 2022, Dayashinese forces began a campaign to isolate and eliminate insurgent cells in Kainanese coastal and near-coastal towns linking to the four large metropolises. RDN Marines also seized control over the Kainanese Presidential Palace and other major centres of governance across the country, and have begun the facilitation of negotiations between the Native Moderate faction and the Inui Regime. The first round of negotiations concluded on 2 April, 2022.

As well in early 2022, the Dayashinese government publicised an intelligence report conducted by the Defence Intelligence Office which detailed an eight month operation undertaken by Dayashinese Special Air Service (DSAS) elements in Mabondeni to stifle cross-border arms smuggling between Mabondeni and Kainan. The report conclusively found that covert elements of Maracaibo were facilitating the delivery of arms and training to insurgent groups within Kainan, including to Native State cells. As the DSAS operation concluded having sufficiently broken up smuggling networks, the ground aspect of the operation was gradually passed over to local forces, which continue to break down the networks with the oversight of Dayashinese intelligence assets.

On 14 May 2022, Dayashinese Minister of Defence Ryutaro Kiyosaki announced the beginning of Operation Zealot, a large-scale offensive into Native State pockets cornered in the south of the Sanuki Province headed by the 2nd Brigade of the Republic of Dayashina Marine Corps. The Dayashinese Ministry of Defence estimated at least 10,000 Native State insurgents, with several thousand more from affiliated groups, operating in the south of the Sanuki Province after being forced away from Kumamoto and other coastal regions following joint operations between Dayashinese and Kainanese ground forces. Stated objectives were the obliteration of high and mid level leadership of Native State, the breakup of large cells into smaller and more isolated splinters, and ultimately the destruction of the organisation at the political level. The Dayashinese Ministry of Defence also indicated that political elements from Mabondeni were being brought into the region to assist the creation of a lasting solution to pacify Sanuki Province.

A Type 102 IFV of the 2nd Brigade engaging insurgents near the border of Mabondeni

Operation Zealot lasted from May to October of 2022 and resulted in the dismantling of Native State into geographically contained pockets of insurgencies, the result of a ground offensive carried by light armour and high-mobility transports in combination with an air campaign largely undertaken via UAS and helicopters. Within the first month of the operation, the 2nd Brigade of the RDMC had divided the large Native State concentration into three pockets centered in villages south-east of Kumamoto. Precision airstrikes and direct action ground insertions were undertaken against Native State leadership within the following months, which veritably resulted in the death or capture of various high level leaders and middle level coordinators. Elements of the 2nd Brigade then committed to a focus on inflicting attrition on the ranks of a divided and poorly-coordinated NS. Meanwhile, political centres in the provinces were secured in order to prepare them for a transfer and integration into neighbouring Mabondeni.

Controversies

As a part of its intervention, the Dayashinese government authorised the deployment of elements of the Dayashinese Special Air Service, including 25 DSAS, into Kawazian territory adjacent to the Kainanese border, and remained in place when the state of Kawazi capitulated and became Mabondeni. DSAS forces embedded themselves into Mabondenian cities, villages, and transportation hotspots in an effort to slow or stop the illegal funneling of arms from rogue elements in Mabondeni into terrorist elements in Kawazi. DSAS forces on the ground, supported by intelligence and reconnaissance aircraft, conducted numerous operations to capture or kill terrorist-affiliated arms smugglers. The government of Mabondeni was notably unsatisfied with the presence of Dayashinese military forces within its borders, but the government of Dayashina denied to leave the region unless local or locally-aligned forces agreed to take up the operation. Eventually, the government of Mabondeni would agree to this condition, leading to Dayashinese forces steadily minimising their presence to make room for local replacements over the course of past months. Dayashinese intelligence officers and personnel remain active, transferring information and directing operations now being undertaken by majority-local forces.

On 12 September, 2021, an RDN Marine unit suffered 11 casualties in just 3 hours of fighting in the Kisarazu District of Kumamoto due to an intelligence mishap. Despite Kisarazu District being marked as one with little remaining resistance, it actually housed the second largest concentration of opposing manpower in the entire city, with Native State forces having remained in hiding (with noteworthy assistance from local civilians) until Dayashinese ground elements closed in. Subsequently, just one platoon sized element of Marines faced upwards of several hundred opposition fighters. The resulting engagement necessitated the distribution of two posthumous awards (Order of the Rising Sun, 2nd class) to Cpl Morizono Kondo and Pvt Shohei Takeda, alongside one award (Order of the Rising Sun, 3rd class) to 1Pvt Shibuki Hasegawa.

Su-30MKMs of the Kainanese Air Force

On 11 November, 2021, Kainanese and Mabondenian fighter aircraft engaged in an aerial skirmish just over the Mabondenian border. On what was supposed to be a routine patrol flight by Su-30MKMs of the Kainanese Air Force, the pilots were ordered by their command to remain on the Mabondenian border for a prolonged period of time to test their response. Reportedly by mistake, the Kainanese aircraft found themselves beyond their own airspace and into Mabondeni's, resulting in the interception of the patrol flight by Mabondenian aircraft. Although there are conflicting reports of how the engagement began, Dayashinese investigators universally claim that the air commander in question ordered the fighters to engage the Mabondenian intercepting aircraft after the pilots reported that they were being threatened to be shot down. Subsequently, Kainanese pilot Shigeru Matsumoto engaged one Mabondenian Su-30MKM with his autocannon, destroying the aircraft. The resulting dogfight went on for fifteen minutes with neither side being able to score another kill, until a MiG-55 (piloted by Akil Kishi), a 5th generation fighter aircraft, ordered into the air by the same commander joined the engagement and instantly downed two Mabondenian Air Force Su-30MKMs with missiles. In response, two H811s, also 5th generation fighters, joined the engagement from inside Mabondenian airspace and took down two of Kainan's own Su-30MKMs. The engagement ended with 3 aircraft downed on both sides, and left observing parties stunned at the transgression. After the engagement, Hallian fighter aircraft from inside Mabondeni scrambled to readiness into the air, resulting in Dayashinese Type 80K+, Type 83, and Type 5 fighters being sent up into the air in confusion. After collating reports from the Mabondenian government and finding out what took place, Dayashinese air command grounded the Kainanese Air Force indefinitely in order to conduct an investigation into the organisation, which resulted in the immediate removal and detention of dozens of individuals in the responsible command chain. The fallout of this scuffle proved immensely damaging to the Kainanese transitional government's image, drawing anger from Dayashinese Association, Hallian Commonwealth, and Slavzone countries, and catalysed the Dayashinese government to seize direct command of Kainanese military forces from the interim regime.

International responses

In April of 2021, Dayashinese Prime Minister Daichi Noru issued a recall for all Dayashinese citizens in Kainan to return within two weeks, followed by an outright travel ban for any Dayashinese to travel to Kainan on grounds of instability and open threat to ethnically Dayashinese persons. Despite outcries on social media and in press conferences for a statement, the Dayashinese government remained notably silent on the issue of the Kainan Crisis, refusing to comment until the situation deteriorated in May.

Themiclesia

In June 2021, the Themiclesian government announced that a special commission had been appointed to study the impact of regional instability on the provision of basic necessities to the population of Kainan. The commission has met two times since July and has taken evidence from 14 local eyewitnesses and 8 experts, some in person and others virtually. The Themiclesian mission to Kainan, headed by Ambassador M.-E. Sram, was amongst those who gave evidence to the commission. It produced an interim report for the government, stating that while resouces are not inherently rare in the region, the wide intersection of the conflict has resulted in unequal distribution across Kainanese society and deprivation in some communities disproportionably affected by civil unrest. The commission recommended that relief funds be expended to provide resources as potable water and medication, and at the same time particular attention towards the welfare of children, who are considered to be particularly at risk from the events in Kainan.

On June 21, the Themiclesian government announced that a relief effort organized through the navy was underway. On July 25, the landing platform docks SS Du and SS Mnga landed in Kainan with the Dayashinese fleet, and after securing a safe zone, disbursement stations for food and temporary shelters were established. Reportedly, medical assistance would commence early in August, due to unexpected delays in creating an adequate medical environment.