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2018 Vinalian federal election

31 August 2018
All 39 seats in the Senate of the Union. All 183 seats in the House of the People 92 House seats needed for a majority
Turnout	89.5%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Omelyan Pavlov Ihor Oleh Stepan Martynyuk Party Unionist Party Workers Party Conservative Party Alliance Grand Union Coalition Grand Union Coalition Grand Union Coalition Leader since 20 August 2018 20 June 2018 18 January 2017 Leader's seat Kirkonia (Senate) Orlavo 11th D. (House) Velkarichka 6th D. (House) Last election 11 Senate, 60 House 12 Senate, 50 House 5 Senate, 20 House Seats won 14 Senate, 69 House 10 Senate, 37 House 8 Senate, 28 House Seat change 3,9 2,13 3,8 Popular vote 8,860,343 6,794,017 3,219,135 Percentage 37.2% 28.5% 13.5% Swing 5.4% 3.1% 1.5%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Trokhym Radkohn Hryhorij Bujicnovik Yana Perepelytsya Party Freedom Party Nationalist Party Green Party Leader since 20 May 2015 22 June 2012 17 November 2016 Leader's seat Vevet (Senate) Vevet 4th D. (House) Red Bay 8th D. (House) Last election 8 Senate, 28 House 2 Senate, 14 House 1 Senate, 6 House Seats won 5 Senate, 25 House 1 Senate, 11 House 1 Senate, 8 House Seat change 3,3 1,3 2 House Popular vote 3,190,655 3,190,655 3,190,655 Percentage 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% Swing 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
Minister-President before election Turden Najic Unionist Elected Minister-President Omelyan Pavlov Unionist

The 2018 Vinalian parliamentary election took place the 31st of August 2018. The election was called by Minister-President Turden Najic, on May 5th 2018, as per law which mandates parliamentary elections 2 years after the previous parliamentary election, which had been carried out the 31st of August 2016. Najic had announced his intention to not run for reelection, thus opening the position of leadership for the Unionist Party from which Omelyan Pavlov the Minister of the Cabinet and Senate member arose to, new leadership headed the Conservative party with the young Vevetsian House member Stepan Martynyuk.

The election was a surprise to many, as the Workers party following strong results in 2016, lost senate and house seats still mantaining the position as the 2nd biggest party, but having lost ground to the Unionist party and a resurgent Conservative party which attempted to reclaim it's previous status before the breakup, after posting the worst losses in it's history both in the North and unified Vinalia Ihor Oleh stepped down. The election saw the Freedom and Nationalist parties also lose to a resurgent Conservative party, causing both their leaders to step down.

Electoral process

Voters elect using the closed list Proportional representation method, each province/federal district is slotted at the minimum one seat, with seats being added in relation to the province/district with the smallest population (currently the province of Juyu Ruwach South with 134,600 people). The largest province by population and seats is that of Chervona with 43 seats followed by Vevetsia with 35 seats. For a party to seat a member in that province/district they must gain a necessary % of votes with parties in Juyu Ruwach South only requiring 51% of the vote to win a seat, while in Chervona for every 2.33% of the vote won a candidate is seated. Elections are held every two years, with seats being assigned every 10 years following a census (the Federal district of Vinalinsk had a census performed in 2017, adding three more seats into the district.)

Elections for the Senate are similar to House elections with the exception that all provinces/districts elect 3 members regardless of population, a 33% of the vote is required for a party to sit a member, although this is hard to achieve. As with the house, the party with the largest % of the vote gets seated, if the vote is split and the threshold can not be reached.

Background

Turden Najic

Entering into the 2018 elections the Unionist party under Turden Najic had seen great success following the snap election of 2016, which saw the Conservative government of Ulyana Hryhorivna collapse, as rival parties dominated in Conservative strongholds such as Catherinsk, Vevetsia, and Velkarichka. Najic's government had been successful in maintaining many of the policies of Hryhorivna and maintained a successful leadership role in the government. But concerns regarding Najics health created concern specially after Najic suffered a heart attack in December 2017, Najic was unable to attend to his duties for 3 weeks, and afterwards involved Omelyan Pavlov his Minister of Cabinet much more widely in the government, some criticized Najic demanding he step down. Najic announced in March that he would not stand up for re election in the Velkarichka Senate, and stated that Omelyan Pavlov become his successor, at the time the Unionist Party was polling incredible numbers at around 45%.

Going into 2018 the most important change was the issue of Mariranan refugees streaming into the south of the country, the Najic government had reached agreements with neighbouring nations to alleviate the issue of masses of refugees in the border, and had mantained a Conservative friendly quota, in spite of Workers party desires for a higher quota. The Conservative party had rebuilt around the young House member of Velkarichka in Stepan Martynyuk, and the party seemed poised to strike at Freedom, and Nationalist seats that had changed hands, the Workers party had seen influential policy passed under Najic, but they suffered from setbacks following a scandal involving Ihor Oleh the party leader with an illegal meat trade in the city of Morechia in early 2018.

Opinion polls

Date	Institute	Unionist	Workers	Conservative	Freedom	Nationalist	Green	Red	Lead
End of public opinion polling (28/8/2018)
6/5/2018	Безкоштовна преса (Free Press)	40%	30%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	10%
16/5/2018	BI (FI)	38%	27%	17%	10%	4%	3%	1%	11%
26/6/2018	Безкоштовна преса (Free Press)	45%	25%	15%	8%	5%	1%	1%	20%
11/7/2018	Безкоштовна преса (Free Press)	41%	27%	17%	5%	8%	1%	1%	14%
18/7/2018	Виналінський університет (Vinalinsk University)	51%	24%	12%	3%	6%	3%	1%	27%
5/8/2018	Безкоштовна преса (Free Press)	47%	26%	12%	8%	4%	2%	1%	21%
15/8/2018	Об'єднані Натисніть (United Press)	45%	26%	14%	9%	3%	2%	1%	19%
25/8/2018	Моя Натисніть (My Press)	45%	25%	16%	8%	4%	1%	1%	20%
28/8/2018	Безкоштовна преса (Free Press)	40%	25%	18%	8%	5%	3%	1%	15%

Campaign

Campaigning season was dominated mainly by the Unionist party, citing the many achievements the party had accomplished in the previous 4 years under Najic. Large rallies in support of Pavlov were common sight, and opinion polls found little in the way of a major Unionist victory. Opponents specially in the Freedom Party found it hard to attack Pavlov which had an outstanding record, and instead focused in conjunction with the Nationalist party in attacking Stepan's lack of political expertise, which was reinforced by problems Stepan had in a rally in Catherinsk where he spilled water on himself, clearly showing his inexperience in such events.

Ihor Oleh suffered during the campaign, his aggressive ads did little to further the Workers party and became the parody of many online memes, comparing the need to dismantle former Conservative policies to a butcher cutting a piece of steak. An online campaign linked to the Nationalist party, made popular the online hashtag #Ігорм'ясник (Ihor Butcher) tying him to Livy Nazidiksa the so called Butcher of Norelinsk which after the Second Vinalian Civil War, oversaw the execution of some 500 Southern collaborators and was exiled from North Vinalia in 1946.

Results

The Unionist Party as had been expected held a large victory, securing key seats from the Workers Party in the North and the Freedom and Nationalist Parties in the South. The Conservative party had reclaimed lost territory and secured key victories in the South, along with entering the North through minor victories. The Workers party lost over 13 House Seats it's worst defeat in the last 10 years, which prompted Oleh to resign from party leadership the following morning, the Unionist Party had been able to secure a majority in Rigalia and North Bin, ensuring the party remained the dominant party of the North and the South.