Mariranan legislative election, 2018

Mariranan legislative election, 2018

10 April 2018
All 232 seats of the House of Councillors and all 90 seats of the House of Senators
Leader Amadeo Tajani Guglielmo Silva Rosa Michelozzi Alliance Avanti Marirana! Parties PDS MP UDV-AE PGS Popular Force 2018 Parties PNU UdCdD PPF CPLD Parties PAR AD FM Last election New party New party 127 C / 47 S Seats before 83 C / 23 S 44 C / 20 S 105 C / 42 S Seats won 145 C / 55 S 51 C / 20 S 34 C / 15 S Seat change 62 C / 30 S 7 C / S 71 C / 27 S Popular vote 13,704,186 (C) 13,048,372 (S) 8,057,947(C) 8,061,396 (S) 5,478,960 (C) 5,847,988 (S) Percentage 49.13% (C) 47.21% (S) 28.89% (C) 29.17% (S) 19.64% (C) 21.16% (S)
File:Marirana election 2018 transparent.png Results in districts in the Councillors (above) and Senators (below)   PDS   PNU   PAR   UdCdD   MP   UDV-AE   DA   PGS   FM
Prime Minister before election Amadeo Tajani PDS Prime Minister-designate Amadeo Tajani PDS

Marirana had a legislative election on the 8^th April 2018 with the date being set after prime minister Amadeo Tajani approached president Lorenzo Occhetto to dissolve both houses of the parliamentary election. Voters elected all 232 members of the House of Councillors and all 90 members of the House of Senators.

The main contenders for the election were three electoral alliances - the centre-right Coalition for Democratic Action, the left-wing Avanti Marirana! and right-wing Popular Force 2018.

The election saw Avanti Marirana! get a qualified majority in both houses of the parliamentary assembly enabling them to sumbit changes to the constitution. Popular Force 2018 became the largest opposition coalition whilst the CPLD suffered a crushing defeat losing most of their seats, with the Anti-Revolutionary Party losing its place as the largest parliamentary party since 1938.

Electoral system

The House of Councillors and House of Senators are elected using different electoral systems. The House of Councillors is elected a mixed-member voting system wherein its members are elected using a mix of single-member plurality districts, proportional districts and additional member seats. The House of Senators meanwhile is elected in multi-member plurality districts.

The House of Councillors have 232 members elected in three different ways. 125 members are elected in a first-past-the-post system within single member districts with the candidate with a plurality of votes becoming the representative in that district. 75 members are elected on a separate closed list system wherein members are elected using party list proportional representation with a 3% electoral threshold. The final 32 members are elected in an additional members system being designed to provide a more proportional result to the single-member seats with the seat distribution being based on the PLPR results.

The House of Senators 90 members are elected in a single non-transferable system. Each province is assigned 15 senators with each province being divided into three multi-member districts with each district having five senators.

Background

The Mariranan legislative elections since 1992 have been held three months after the Mariranan presidential elections to limit the risk of cohabitation and government deadlock.

The last legislative election in Marirana - held in 2013 - saw a victory for the Coalition for Democratic Action (Coalizione per l'azione democratica; CPLD) a centre-right coalition of the Anti-Revolutionary, Democratic Alternative and Forza Marirana parties with the main opposition to the CPLD consisting of the Democratic Party of Socialists (PDS) and the United National Party (PNU).

In 2017 after a failed movement to impeach than-president Giorgio Macciocchi 22 Councillors and 5 Senators left the CPLD to form the Union of Centrists and Democrats, resulting in the CPLD to lose its majority in both houses.

The 2017-18 presidential election saw three main candidates - Rosa Michelozzi (CPLD), Lorenzo Occhetto (PDS) and Alfonso Hatoyama (PNU) lead in most opinion polls. In the first round of the election Occhetto came first with 44.1% of the vote followed by Hatoyama with 18.2% and Michelozzi with 16.5%. As a result for the first time since 1938 a member of the PAR did not advance into the second round of a Mariranan presidential election. Following the first round several smaller left-wing parties backed Occhetto for president creating Avanti Marirana! whilst several right-wing parties backed Hatoyama forming Popular Force 2018.

Occhetto won the second round of the presidential election with 59.3% compared to Hatoyama's 40.7%, with their being a 6.6% abstention rate. Occhetto was inaugurated as president on the 28^th January and the next day named Amadeo Tajani - a former member of the rebel group the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Indigenous Peoples - as prime minister.

Campaign

The official campaign period for the election began on the 7^th March 2018 but was de facto taking place after the 2018 presidential election. Like with the majority of other elections, parties mainly colesced into coalitions rather than present individual lists - these coalitions being the Coalition for Democratic Action, Avanti Marirana! and Popular Force 2018.

Prime Minister Amadeo Tajani meeting Avanti Marirana! supporters at a campaign stop

President Occhetto on behalf of the Avanti Marirana coalition announced that the coalition would run an electoral list of "workers, farmers' and representatives of the ordinary people" rather than career politicians. Occhetto also called the opposition parties as "agents of the elite, agents of foreign capital, the enemies of the people" stating that by giving Avanti Marirana a majority "the people will have destroyed the elite". Avanti Marirana expressed its intention to secure a qualified majority of 60% of legislators in both chambers of the parliamentary assembly (140 Councillors and 54 Senators) the necessary number needed to submit constitutional changes to a referendum. The top candidate for the Avanti Marirana campaign was prime minister Amadeo Tajani.

Avanti Marirana promised that if elected it would ensure that the policies proposed by Occhetto in his presidential campaign would be implemented in their fullness by officially starting a peace process, implementing stricter anti-narcotics laws, creating a new welfare system and wiping out corruption. Tajani stated if the qualified majority was met it would also seek to introduce a presidential system, reform the electoral system and ensure water, healthcare and housing for all citizens.

The CPLD campaign was led by former prime minister and presidential candidate Rosa Michelozzi who declared the CPLD would lead the next government if it achieved 30% of the vote. The CPLD's campaign attacked Occhetto as "divisive" and called for

Alfonso Hatoyama campaigning for Popular Force 2018 in Monticello

Avanti Marirana to fail in its ambition to attain a majority in both chambers of the parliamentary assembly. The majority of those on the CPLD's electoral list were sitting members of parliament. In regards to the prospect of an electoral pact between the CPLD and the right-wing Popular Force 2018 Michelozzi stated the "door was open".

The CPLD stated if they led a government they would ensure the retention of Marirana's free market economy, strong anti-terrorism policies and pro-Federation foreign policy. Michelozzi confirmed that the CPLD would be in "total opposition'" to the Occhetto presidency.

FP 2018's lead candidate was its federal president Guglielmo Silva although the de facto leader of the campaign was former presidential candidate Alfonso Hatoyama. Hatoyama warned voters that a vote for Avanti Marirana was a vote for a dictatorship and accused Occhetto of "selling our country to terrorists and appointing them to positions of power" (in reference to Occhetto's support of a peace process to the Mariranan insurgency and his appointment of Amadeo Tajani as prime minister). Silva said that he would "leave Marirana" if Avanti Marirana attained a majority. The government accused FP 2018 of receiving funding from the Federation of Asteria, a charge denied by Popular Force 2018.

FP 2018 stated they would if getting into power they would seek to impeach Occhetto and end the peace process, as well as approve of massive military action in areas held by insurgent forces. FP 2018 also stated they would raise the minimum wage and being to privatise the state-owned uranium sector.

The campaign was called by external observers as "mean spirited and ugly with a focus on personal attacks, scaremongering and incendiary rhetoric over policy discussion".

Coalitions and parties

Coalition		Party		Main ideology	Councillors	Senators
	Coalition for Democratic Action		Anti-Revolutionary Party (PAR)	Christian Democracy	82 / 232	32 / 90
			Democratic Alternative (AR)	Popolarismo	13 / 232	7 / 90
			Forza Marirana (FM)	Economic liberalism	10 / 232	3 / 90
	Avanti Marirana!		Democratic Party of Socialists (PDS)	Liberation socialism	59 / 232	22 / 90
			Positive Marirana (MP)	Social liberalism	13 / 232	2 / 90
			Union of Green Democrats - Ecological Action (UDV-AE)	Green politics	11 / 232	0 / 90
			Party of Social Justice (PGS)	Indigenismo	0 / 232	1 / 90
	Popular Force 2018		United National Party (PNU)	National conservatism	21 / 232	15 / 90
			Union of Centrists and Democrats (UdCdD)	Liberal conseravtism	22 / 232	5 / 90
			Family First Party (PPF)	Christian right	1 / 232	0 / 90
	Liberty and Justice Party (PLG)			Neofascism	0 / 232	0 / 90

Opinion polling

File:Mariranan opinion polls 2018.svg

Results

House of Councillors

 Summary of the 10 April Mariranan House of Councillors election results

Political Party			Plurality district seats			Proportional representation seats			National Seats	Total Seats
			Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats		Total	%	Seat change
	Avanti Marirana! (AM!)		14,028,045	50.29%	107	13,704,186	49.13%	38	0	145 / 232	62.5%	+62
		Democratic Party of Socialists (PDS)	10,625,860	38.09%	88	9,744,462	34.93%	28	0	116 / 232	50.0%	+57
		Positive Marirana (MP)	1,539,395	5.52%	10	1,735,666	6.22%	4	0	14 / 232	6.03%	+1
		Union of Green Democrats - Ecological Action (UDV-AE)	1,276,041	4.57%	8	1,173,563	4.21%	3	0	11 / 232	4.74%
		Party of Social Justice (PGS)	586,749	2.1%	1	1,050,495	3.77%	3	0	4 / 232	1.72%	+4
	Popular Force 2018 (FP 2018)		7,980,584	28.61%	8	8,057,947	28.89%	22	21	51 / 232	21.98%	+7
		United National Party (PNU)	5,004,617	17.94%	7	4,608,359	16.52%	13	6	26 / 232	11.21%	+5
		Union of Centrists and Democrats (UdCdD)	2,767,275	9.92%	1	3,222,013	10.83%	8	15	24 / 232	10.34%	+2
		Family First Party (PPF)	208,692	0.75%	0	227,575	1.53%	1	0	1 / 232	0.43%
	Coalition for Democratic Action (CPLD)		5,604,948	20.09%	10	5,478,960	19.64%	13	11	34 / 232	14.66%	-69
		Anti-Revolutionary Party (PAR)	4,025,892	14.43%	9	3,543,795	12.70%	10	8	27 / 232	11.64%	-55
		Democratic Alternative (AD)	803,343	2.88%	0	1,067,491	3.83%	3	2	5 / 232	2.16%	-8
		Forza Marirana (FM)	335,226	1.20%	1	440,749	1.58%	0	1	2 / 232	0.86%	-8
	Liberty and Justice Party (PLG)		449,725	1.61%	0	867,474	3.11%	2	0	2 / 232	0.86%	+2
	Others/Spoilt		147,622	0.53%	0	214,583	0.77%	0	0	0 / 232	0.00%
Total			27,896,425	100.00%	125	27,896,425	100.00%	75	32	232	-	-

House of Senators

 Summary of the 10 April Mariranan House of Senators election results

Political Party			Multi-member district seats
			Votes	%	Seats	% of seats	Seat change
	Avanti Marirana! (AM!)		13,048,372	47.21%	55 / 90	62.5%	+30
		Democratic Party of Socialists (PDS)	10,575,311	38.26%	50 / 90	50.0%	+28
		Positive Marirana (MP)	784,744	2.84%	1 / 90	6.03%	-1
		Union of Green Democrats - Ecological Action (UDV-AE)	458,739	1.66%	1 / 90	4.74%	+1
		Party of Social Justice (PGS)	1,229,578	4.45%	3 / 90	1.72%	+2
	Popular Force 2018 (FP 2018)		8,061,396	29.17%	20 / 90	21.98%
		United National Party (PNU)	4,763,963	17.24%	15 / 90	11.21%
		Union of Centrists and Democrats (UdCdD)	3,058,838	11.07%	5 / 90	10.34%
		Family First Party (PPF)	238,595	0.86%	0 / 90	0.43%
	Coalition for Democratic Action (CPLD)		5,847,988	21.16%	15 / 90	15.52%	-27
		Anti-Revolutionary Party (PAR)	4,506,644	16.31%	12 / 90	11.64%	-20
		Democratic Alternative (AD)	667,495	2.42%	1 / 90	2.16%	-6
		Forza Marirana (FM)	673,849	2.44%	2 / 90	1.72%	-1
	Liberty and Justice Party (PLG)		205,968	0.75%	0 / 90	0.00%
	Others/Spoilt		474,849	1.72%	0 / 90	0.00%	-3
Total			27,638,573	100.00%	90	-	-