Chaibian War

Chaibian War
Part of the Pax Atomica (1945–present)
Clockwise from top left: A Fallish UC peacekeeper during UCOMCA involvement in the Battle of Caridoso in 1989, a Nadauran military helicopter hovers over an abandoned FLP anti-aircraft weapon in 1987, the Easter Agreement is signed by President Tadeu Espíndola in 1990, internally displaced persons in Itzalcoatl
Date 2 January 1982 – present (42 years and 10 months) Location Nadauro, with spillover into X Status Ongoing, Nadauran peace process Easter Agreement of 1990 Nadauro–FLP peace deal of 2016
Belligerents
Nadauro Supported by: Free States (1982–) Waldrich (1982–) UCOMCA (1987–1992)	Nadauran drug cartels and right-wing paramilitaries Armala cartel (1984–) Nahia cartel (1985–) Bloque Aral (1982–1990) CLUN (1982–1988) Lei e Ordem (1983–1995) AAE (1983–1988) Boaventura cartel (1982–1987) Loarquei Popular Front (1983–1990) As Zermasas (1985–1989) X (1983–) Supported by: X	Nadauran guerrillas FLP (1980–) ER1M (1982–) FDDI (1984–1990) MAR (1981–1992) PDT (1984–1990) ERDL (1987–1989) FPS (1985–1986) Supported by: Hyacinthe (until 1990) X
Commanders and leaders
Nataniel Magalhães (2021–present) Former Enrico Pimentel † Ernesto Ranieri Filho Juan Manuel Duque Tadeu Espíndola Ernesto Sarneyso Luiz Pimentel Luciana Chagas Fernando Maciel Itamar Linhares José de Moura Andrade Epitácio Alves	Érico Lópes Dutra  † Gilberto Dutra  † Alfonso Cheueta Iago Prestes Paz Michaël Berlioz Émerson Delchiaro Dutra Pedro Barreto do Vale	Claude Lamar  † Benício Bezerra Nunes Cláudio Costa Lobo Benício Esteves Ito Fabio Guerra Antonio Sanchez
Strength
Ground Self-Defense Force: 177,400 Naval Self-Defense Force: 47,250 Air Self-Defense Force: 33,350 National Police: 267,560	Paramilitary and successor groups: 4,500–26,000 CLUN: 40,200	FLP: 34,000 (2015) ER1M: 13,890 (2006) MAR: 1,200 (1990)
Casualties and losses
Nadauro: 6,401 killed (1982–1990) 19,840 injured (1982–1990)	CLUN: 1,065 killed 39,000 demobilized AAE: 967 killed 1,740 captured Armala cartel: 3,400 killed	FLP: 7,829 killed (1982–1990) 22,000 demobilized (since 2016) 900 captured (since 1985) ER1M: 2,990 killed 4,000 captured (since 1990)
Civilians killed: 164,427 Individuals abducted: 25,027 Total number of individuals displaced: 3,363,000–5,100,000 Total number of refugees: 100,000+

The Chaibian War (Lavish: Guerra do Chaibia), also referred to as the Nadauran War (Lavish: Guerra do Anadaúro) and commonly as A Violência (lit. "The Violence"), was a low-intensity conflict dominated by asymmetric warfare throughout the 1980s between the federal government of Nadauro and the state government of Chaibia, far-right paramilitary groups, drug cartels, and far-left guerrilla groups, following the collapse of the Caravelas regime and the Third Empire of Nadauro in 1979.

The power vacuum left behind by the rapid paradigm shift of Nadauran power was swiftly exploited by numerous factions vying for control in the then-impoverished and underdeveloped state of Chaibia. Previously having been the center of popularity for the fledging Combinationalist Workers' Party (PMC) and minor secessionist groups advocating for Chaibian independence, differing political visions and desires caused conflict. In December of 1981, hoping to provide social justice through combinationalism, the PMC re-organized into the Popular Liberation Front (FLP) and initiated the outbreak of violence. By January of 1982, public order largely collapsed in Chaibia.

The Nadauran government's response was harsh and initially unyielding; on 30 September 1985, President Enrico Pimentel was assassinated in Itabira by the Revolutionary Army of 1st of March (ER1M) after repeatedly rejecting political concessions in the far-left groups' favor. Anti-combinationalist suppression by the government military in Chaibia prompted the creation of multiple far-right paramilitary groups such as the United Free Corps of Nadauro (CLUN), supposedly reactionary to the guerrilla activity, and the involvement of both domestic and international drug cartels and crime syndicates. The peak of wartime activity occured from 1987 to 1989, during which large parts of territory in Chaibia were effectively occupied by multiple fighting groups; major events include the 1987 Hotel Marizur bombing, the Battle of Selmestas, and the 1988 Bahia Minor raid.

Juan Manuel Duque pursued a controversial peace policy during his tenure in the late 1980s, negotiating the disbanding of CLUN and a temporary truce with FLP and ER1M in March of 1988; the peace deal fell apart when the rejecting National Congress moved against Duque with a vote of no-confidence in January of 1988. Fearing regional spillover, the United Congress Security Council passed Resolution 609 and created the United Congress Observer Mission in Nadauro (UCOMCA) to aid in peacekeeping and monitor the Nadauro–X border. Following the climactic Battle of Caridoso in August of 1989, diplomatic efforts by presidential successor Tadeu Espíndola culminated in the Easter Agreement, a historic ceasefire treaty signed on 4 August 1990.

The Nadauran peace process has made steady progress since the 1990s and the 2000s, even when experts consider it to be fragile. According to a study by the University of Itabira, a total number of 235,000 people have died in the conflict from 1982 to 2010, the vast majority of which civilians (up to 80%). Estimates of the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) range from 3.4 to 5.1 million people, generating the world's third-largest such population. According to UCCAF, 37,000 children have been killed in the conflict and another 1.8 million designated as "victims"; human trafficking, more notably child trafficking, persist as broader societal issues and are the subject of political and public attention.