Contemporary Belhavian Presidential Politics
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Introduction
Contemporary Belhavian politics emerged with the realigning election of 1980 presidential election, when approximately 35 years of politics that had been dominated mainly by the Liberal Democrats (colloquially referred to as the "Lib Dems") following the end of the Galarian autocracy came to an end.
Since 1980, the Conservatives (also known as the Tories) have dominated the national political scene. In the 1980s, the Settas administration steadily dismantled the Imperial Government's nascent welfare state and strongly curtailed its size and scope, limiting the appeal of the pro-activist government-oriented Lib Dems.
Before 1981, there were 4 Liberal Democratic presidents and 1 Conservative president; since then, there has been 5 Conservatives and just 1 Lib Dem as president. Despite this, presidential elections are usually competitive affairs, with only a few "landslide elections" (1972, 1980, 1988, and 2004) since 1955, the start of the current Fourth Party System.
1980 and 1988 Presidential Elections: Conservative Wave, Lib Dem Collapse
Era of Hyper-Competitive Elections (1988 - 2000)
Arnoth-Goldman Era: Tory Edge (2004 - Present)
Goldman Era Electoral Politics
Template:Standard table |- | align=center colspan=1 | Strong Lib Dem | align=center colspan=1 | Lean Lib Dem | align=center colspan=1 | Swing Province | align=center colspan=1 | Lean Tory | align=center colspan=1 | Strong Tory |- | align=center | North Dakos | align=center | Braunswig | align=center | Provisa | align=center | Freeport | align=center | Rustonia |- | align=center | Asland | align=center | East Dakos | align=center | West Dakos | align=center | South Dakos | align=center | Joshualand |- | align=center | Kellsmont | align=center | Latveria | align=center | Janskor | align=center | Raffen | align=center | Weissland Islands |- | align=center | Anaheim | align=center | Judenia | align=center | | align=center | Westland | align=center | Shelvoy |- | align=center | | align=center | | align=center | | align=center | Norvenia | align=center | Aviv |- | align=center | | align=center | | align=center | | align=center | Southern Reaches | align=center | Vannen |- | align=center | | align=center | | align=center | | align=center | South Adrania | align=center | Arkania |- |}
Table Explanation:
Strong Lib Dem: Has voted for the Lib Dem presidential nominee in every election since 1988.
Lean Lib Dem: Usually has voted for the Lib Dem presidential nominee in every election since 1988, though has been won at least once by a Tory presidential nominee.
Swing Province: Has voted for both Tory and Lib Dem presidential nominees at least twice or more since 2000.
Lean Tory: Usually has voted for the Tory presidential nominee in every election since 1988, though has been won at least once by a Lib Dem presidential nominee.1
Strong Tory: Has voted for the Tory presidential nominee in every election since 1988.1
1. With the exception of the 2004 presidential election, where the Libertarian Party nominee won five Tory provinces - Raffen, Arkania, Southern Reaches, Weissland Islands, and South Dakos - though the Conservative nominee has won them otherwise continuously.
Competitive Two-Party System
In Belhavian presidential politics today, despite the Conservative edge, both major parties are considered competitive to win the Presidential Palace. The lowest the Liberal Democrats received since 1980 was 39.3% (1984), and they averaged 45.97% in the seven presidential elections between 1988 and 2012. The Conservatives, in the same period, have averaged 49.2% - a spread of only approximately 3.2%.
However, the only Lib Dem to win, two-term President Garret Holleran (1993 - 1997; 2001 - 2005), only won with a three-way plurality majority of 43.1% in 1992, and earned a ceiling vote share of 49.8% (1996) and 50.7% (2000) in his subsequent election attempts. Some political scientists suggest the Lib Dems have a ceiling of 50.7%, a view echoed by Tory activists who argue their party has more popular policy positions. Other election experts assert that minor third-parties, such as the Libertarians or Independent candidates draw away marginal voters who would otherwise vote Liberal Democratic, which liberal activists argue denies their party a winning 50% + 1 majority in the post-1980 political landscape.
Despite this debate in political science academic circles, strategists from both major parties, as well as the powerful third-party Libertarians, believe that presidential politics in Belhavia is up for grabs to the best performing and most effective campaign.