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Kembesan Civil War
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The Kembesan Civil War is an armed conflict that began on January 5, 2025. Following the attempted coup of the Federal Parliament and the Imperial Palace by the Federalist faction, the conflict quickly devolved into a tripartite civil war between Imperial loyalist forces, the Federalists, and the Tewahedo Coalition of the Imperial Parliament. As the war progressed, a number of foreign powers launched interventions in favour of different factions, escalating the war to a major regional conflict.
Background
Historic expansion
The modern Empire of Kembesa was formed in 1930 following the Kingdom of Meharia's conquest of the Principality of Degama, the Duchy of Masara, and finally the Kingdom of Janubia. With the proclamation of the Empire, the four constituent monarchies were recognized as subnations, ostensibly as equal members of a federation, but with absolute rule from the office of the emperor, who was simultaneously the king of Meharia. A constitution was introduced in 1936 following popular clamour for reform which empowered a popular legislature while retaining significant executive powers with the monarch and providing a forum for the landed aristocracy to check the power of the commons.
Over the past century, Kembesa has continued to be politically dominated by Meharia, both in terms of the influence exerted by the Emperor in support of his home domain, and in the legislature where the Kingdom of Meharia sends 82 of 137 representatives to the Popular Assembly of the Imperial Parliament, just under 60% of all seats despite Meharia representing only 44% of the total population of the Empire.
Kembesan federalism under the 1936 constitution recognizes the local authority of each subnation, but this authority extends primarily to only bureaucratic affairs and infrastructure, with little formal control over local laws and traditions outside of property and tort laws.
Political conditions
The Imperial Parliament of Kembesa devised in the 1936 constitution was heavily influenced by the Dominion of Lion's Rock which had formed a self-governing parliament in 1898 and was therefore indirectly inspired by the Arthuristan parliamentary tradition. The Imperial Parliament has two chambers: the Popular Assembly which is the full-time elected lower house which drafts and proposes legislation on behalf of the citizens and subjects of the Empire, and the Noble Assembly which sits for a shorter portion of the year and is made up of representatives from the landed aristocracy of the Empire who primarily act as a check on the power of the Popular Assembly and are frequently drawn on for ministerial appointments by the Emperor.
Beyond the Imperial Parliament, the Emperor maintains significant executive authority including executive decrees, ministerial appointments, and emergency powers. Subnational politics tend to be more conservative and stratified, but vary among the subnations from hierarchical chiefdoms to local parliamentary systems.
In the 21st century, Kembesa has faced a number of major political divisions and had repressive laws on freedom of expression. Since the 1960s, public expression in favour of overt socialism has been banned, particularly following the rise of Orthosocialist Focus, a militant authoritarian socialist movement which has been behind dozens of terrorist attacks over the past half-century. While the organization was dismantled by Kembesan security forces in the early 2000s, the group was quickly revived in 2016 and Kembesa has been faced with consistent political violence for the past decade.
Other substantial crises included agricultural failures - a sector which employs between 20% and 30% of Kembesans. Failures in both economic policy and climate impacts fueled significant resentment among the rural lower class along with rural flight as failing agricultural operations and restricted land ownership led to mass unemployment. The rural flight also put significant strains on infrastructure in Kembesa's cities.
Despite repression, left-wing radicalization was on the rapid upswing in the leadup to the August 2024 election for the Popular Assembly. Due to the laws on repression, Kembesan news agencies reported little on the growing strength of the Tewahedo Party - a new left-wing party. The core of the Tewahedo Party (Tewahedo meaning "United" in the She'dje language which is a liturgical language in Kembesa) is based in non-denominational religious socialism, but became more broadly populist in the leadup to the election. The Tewahedo Party was led by Tesfaldet Woldemesfin, a former Azdarin mullah, widely recognized as a charismatic speaker both in public and in private, who succeeded in bringing the political centre of Kembesa into a coalition with the radical Tewahedo Party.
On the other end of the political spectrum, perceived deficiencies in the Empire's governance, even under the conservatives, led to the decline of the Conservative Party of Kembesan and the rise of a populist right-wing party under the leadership of Prince Makonnen Yemata, the nephew of the Emperor, called the Kembesan Unity Party. The KUP was quickly able to achieve legitimacy as a conservative alternative to the political establishment across a broad swath of Kembesans, but particularly among the Mehari base, calling for increasingly centralized authority while blaming the various crises of the Empire on subnational and pluralist influences.
With the Tewahedo Party and the Kembesan Unity Party rising as the major radical ends of the political spectrum, many rural and ethnic minorities strained under a lack of representation among the major political groups of the country and were especially impacted by the economic woes of the country. Alienation became associated with a failure to uphold the principles of the 1936 constitution, which was drafted in part with the goal of preserving some degree of autonomy for the subnations.
In the context of increasing radicalism, populism, anomie, and the normalized violence of terrorist attacks, combined with economic and demographic crises, the successful Tewahedo Party embarked on an ambitious endeavour to reform the Kembesan constitution.
Timeline of the 2024 parliamentary crisis
August 14, 2024 - The Tewahedo Party forms a coalition government in the Popular Assembly of the Imperial Parliament joined by the moderate-left Democratic Freedom Party. Tesfaldet Woldemesfin is the chancellor presumptive.
August 22, 2024 - The Kembesan Unity Party (chaired by Emperor Hailu II's nephew, Makonnen Yemata) disputes the result of the election, launching proceedings in the Imperial Court of Justice. The Fall session of the Imperial Parliament is suspended pending the proceedings.
September 28, 2024 - The National Agrarian Party pledges support to constitutional reform in exchange for concessions from the Tewahedo Coalition, bringing a total of 2/3 of the Assembly on board.
October 31, 2024 - The major points of the constitutional reform are publicly unveiled: including Georgist tax reform, expanded suffrage, the unitary reorganization of the country's administrative subdivisions, and the abolition of the upper house of parliament.
November 18, 2024 - The KUP's complaint in the Imperial Court of Justice is dismissed and Tesfaldet Woldemesfin is set to be officially acclaimed as chancellor.
November 27, 2024 - The Popular Assembly begins the autumn session and the draft constitutional reform's first reading is philibustered by members of Kembesan Unity Party and the Conservative Party.
December 4, 2024 - Continued legislative deadlock devolves to violence in the streets. Opposition to the reforms is galvanized among regional minorities who are disproportionately unrepresented in the Popular Assembly.
December 10, 2024 - Rioting in the capital of Azwa leads the Emperor to order the deployment of Imperial Army to bolster the Capital Gendarmerie.
December 21, 2024 - The Emperor declares martial law in the capital.
December 23, 2024 - A bomb attack destroys a police station in the capital, prompting a 24-hour curfew. The Popular Assembly's session is effectively suspended.
December 25, 2024 - Members of the Tewahedo Coalition defy the curfew, declare the Popular Assembly to be quorate, and vote to approve the package of constitutional reforms before submitting the bill to the Imperial Palace for assent.
December 28, 2024 - Chancellor Tesfaldet Woldemesfin is found murdered.
January 3, 2025 - The deadline for the Emperor to assent, veto, or refer the reform bill to the Noble Assembly passes without event; violence and civil unrest intensifies across the country.
January 4, 2025 - Dejazmač Sebhat Melekot occupies the Imperial Parliament complex and declares martial law across the entire country; the Imperial Palace is surrounded by the Imperial Army. Dejazmač Melekot proclaims that the events of the past four-and-a-half months have violated the Kembesan principles of federalism under the constitution and declares his cause to protect the constitution and the rights of the constituent nations of the Empire.
January 5, 2025 - Emperor Hailu II abdicates in favour of his nephew who now reigns as Emperor Makonnen; the new Emperor declares that the leaders of the Imperial Army and the Tewahedo Coalition are enemies of the state and the country descends into civil war.
Belligerents
Civil war factions
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- Makonnen's Loyalists are a conservative monarchist faction fighting against the Imperial Parliament's imbroglio and the Federalist coup. The Loyalist forces are made up of the Capital Gendarmerie, the Imperial Navy, and elements of the Imperial Army.
- The Tewahedo Coalition is made up of a centre-left to left-wing parliamentary coalition. Their goals are to enact democratic reforms and centralization. The core of the movement is based in non-denominational religious socialism, but became significantly more "big tent" over the past four months in the process of trying to negotiate for reforms in the Popular Assembly. At the outset of the war, they don't have much in terms of materiel, but they have significant popular support in the Empire's core and outlying cities.
- The Federalists are a militaristic and regionalist faction fighting against the cultural and political imperialism of the Empire's core. The Federalists are supported by a significant portion of Imperial Army regulars from minority regions as well as members of the minor nobility who have seen regional autonomy eroded after the 1936 Constitution which significantly favoured the Kingdom of Meharia.
International involvement
Timeline
Aftermath
Humanitarian situation
Kembesa regnal list
Kingdom of Meharia
- 1393-1405 Woldemesfin I Kebera
- 1405-1454 Woldemesfin II Kebera
- 1454-1477 Makonnen I Kebera
- 1477-1503 Hailu I Kebera
- 1503-1504 Woldemesfin III Kebera
- 1504-1525 Mengesha I Gobeze
- 1525-1567 Makonnen II Gobeze
- 1567-1602 Woldemesfin IV Kebera
- 1602-1616 Hailu II Kebera
- 1616-1659 Woldemesfin V Zeyazwa
- 1659-1700 Tafari I Zeyazwa
- 1700-1733 Tafari II Zeyazwa
- 1733-1772 Woldemesfin VI Zeyazwa
- 1772-1790 Woldemesfin VII Zeyazwa
- 1790-1820 Hailu III Zeyazwa
- 1820-1858 Woldemesfin Zeyazwa
- 1858-1879 Hailu IV Yemata
- 1879-1915 Mengesha II Yemata
- 1915-1930 Mengesha III Yemata
Empire of Kembesa
- 1930-1956 Mengesha Yemata
- 1956-1998 Hailu I Yemata
- 1998-pres. Hailu II Yemata
Kingdom of Janubia
- 1393-1441 Cali Galab I Sharmaarke
- 1441-1481 Cali Galab II Sharmaarke
- 1481-1514 Cali Galab III Sharmaarke
- 1514-1524 Ciise I Ajuuraan
- 1524-1573 Cali Madar I Ajuuraan
- 1573-1586 Xarbi Ajuuraan
- 1586-1608 Cali Madar II Ajuuraan
- 1608-1633 Ciise II Ajuuraan
- 1633-1664 Cali Galab IV Sharmaarke
- 1664-1675 Cali Madar II Sharmaarke
- 1675-1705 Godane I Habar Maroodi
- 1705-1728 Cali Madar III Habar Maroodi
- 1728-1741 Cali Madar IV Habar Maroodi
- 1741-1787 Cali Madar V Habar Maroodi
- 1787-1813 Ciise III Gurey
- 1813-1852 Cali Madar VI Gurey
- 1852-1870 Cali Madar VII Awdal
- 1870-1919 Godane II Awdal
- 1919-1930 Cali Madar VIII Awdal
- 1930-1968 Cali Madar IX Awdal
- 1968-2015 Cali Madar X Gurey
- 2015-pres. Cali Madar IX Gurey
Principality of Degama
- 1396-1444 Gotytom I Zegidey
- 1444-1479 Hagos Zehadera
- 1479-1526 Arkebe I Zehadera
- 1526-1533 Arkebe II Zehadera
- 1533-1561 Arkebe III Zehadera
- 1561-1592 Gotytom II Zekebera
- 1592-1640 Gotytom III Zekebera
- 1640-1660 Debretsion I Zedhanom
- 1660-1694 Arkebe IV Zedhanom
- 1694-1743 Zenawi I Zenawi
- 1743-1759 Arkebe V Zerophnan
- 1759-1798 Debretsion II Zerophnan
- 1798-1808 Gotytom IV Zerophnan
- 1808-1832 Zenawi II Zesehul
- 1832-1868 Debretsion III Zesehul
- 1868-1890 Zenawi III Zesehul
- 1890-1934 Arkebe VI Zesehul
- 1934-1952 Arkebe VII Zesehul
- 1952-1987 Hayelom I Zemaya
- 1987-2006 Hayelom II Zemaya
- 2006-2017 Siye Zemaya
- 2017-2023 Zenawi IV Zemaya
- 2023-pres. Zenawi V Zemaya
Duchy of Masara
- 1395-1445 Gezahegne I Merga
- 1445-1451 Shantam I Merga
- 1451-1487 Gezahegne II Merga
- 1487-1496 Baalu I Merga
- 1496-1542 Shantam II Yetufa
- 1542-1547 Shantam III Yetufa
- 1547-1592 Shantam IV Yetufa
- 1592-1598 Boonaa I Girma
- 1598-1640 Hacalu I Girma
- 1640-1641 Boonaa II Girma
- 1641-1668 Boonaa III Girma
- 1668-1681 Yadesa I Abera
- 1681-1702 Yadesa II Abera
- 1702-1727 Boonaa IV Gelana
- 1727-1764 Baalu II Gelana
- 1764-1802 Shantam V Tola
- 1802-1839 Hacalu II Gelana
- 1839-1882 Shantam VI Yebira
- 1882-1899 Baalu III Yebira
- 1899-1944 Baalu IV Yebira
- 1944-1984 Yadesa III Yebira
- 1984-pres. Hacalu III Yebira