User:BobOrson/Sandbox4
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All 39 seats in the Senate of the Union. All 183 seats in the House of the People 92 House seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 89.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2018 Vinalian parliamentary election took place the 31st of August 2018. The election was called by Minister-President Turden Najic, on May 5th 2018, as per law which mandates parliamentary elections 2 years after the previous parliamentary election, which had been carried out the 31st of August 2016. Najic had announced his intention to not run for reelection, thus opening the position of leadership for the Unionist Party from which Omelyan Pavlov the Minister of the Cabinet and Senate member arose to, new leadership headed the Conservative party with the young Vevetsian House member Stepan Martynyuk.
The election was a surprise to many, as the Workers party following strong results in 2016, lost senate and house seats still mantaining the position as the 2nd biggest party, but having lost ground to the Unionist party and a resurgent Conservative party which attempted to reclaim it's previous status before the breakup, after posting the worst losses in it's history both in the North and unified Vinalia Ihor Oleh stepped down. The election saw the Freedom and Nationalist parties also lose to a resurgent Conservative party, causing both their leaders to step down.
Electoral process
Voters elect using the closed list Proportional representation method, each province/federal district is slotted at the minimum one seat, with seats being added in relation to the province/district with the smallest population (currently the province of Juyu Ruwach South with 134,600 people). The largest province by population and seats is that of Chervona with 43 seats followed by Vevetsia with 35 seats. For a party to seat a member in that province/district they must gain a necessary % of votes with parties in Juyu Ruwach South only requiring 51% of the vote to win a seat, while in Chervona for every 2.33% of the vote won a candidate is seated. Elections are held every two years, with seats being assigned every 10 years following a census (the Federal district of Vinalinsk had a census performed in 2017, adding three more seats into the district.)
Elections for the Senate are similar to House elections with the exception that all provinces/districts elect 3 members regardless of population, a 33% of the vote is required for a party to sit a member, although this is hard to achieve. As with the house, the party with the largest % of the vote gets seated, if the vote is split and the threshold can not be reached.
Background
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Entering into the 2018 elections the Unionist party under Turden Najic had seen great success following the snap election of 2016, which saw the Conservative government of Ulyana Hryhorivna collapse, as rival parties dominated in Conservative strongholds such as Catherinsk, Vevetsia, and Velkarichka. Najic's government had been successful in maintaining many of the policies of Hryhorivna and maintained a successful leadership role in the government. But concerns regarding Najics health created concern specially after Najic suffered a heart attack in December 2017, Najic was unable to attend to his duties for 3 weeks, and afterwards involved Omelyan Pavlov his Minister of Cabinet much more widely in the government, some criticized Najic demanding he step down. Najic announced in March that he would not stand up for re election in the Velkarichka Senate, and stated that Omelyan Pavlov become his successor, at the time the Unionist Party was polling incredible numbers at around 45%.
Going into 2018 the most important change was the issue of Mariranan refugees streaming into the south of the country, the Najic government had reached agreements with neighbouring nations to alleviate the issue of masses of refugees in the border, and had mantained a Conservative friendly quota, in spite of Workers party desires for a higher quota. The Conservative party had rebuilt around the young House member of Velkarichka in Stepan Martynyuk, and the party seemed poised to strike at Freedom, and Nationalist seats that had changed hands, the Workers party had seen influential policy passed under Najic, but they suffered from setbacks following a scandal involving Ihor Oleh the party leader with an illegal meat trade in the city of Morechia in early 2018.
Party leaders
Opinion polls
| Date | Institute | Unionist | Workers | Conservative | Freedom | Nationalist | Green | Red | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| End of public opinion polling (28/8/2018) | |||||||||
| 6/5/2018 | Безкоштовна преса (Free Press) | 40% | 30% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
| 16/5/2018 | BI (FI) | 38% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 11% |
| 26/6/2018 | Безкоштовна преса (Free Press) | 45% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 20% |
| 11/7/2018 | Безкоштовна преса (Free Press) | 41% | 27% | 17% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 14% |
| 18/7/2018 | Виналінський університет (Vinalinsk University) | 51% | 24% | 12% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 27% |
| 5/8/2018 | Безкоштовна преса (Free Press) | 47% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 21% |
| 15/8/2018 | Об'єднані Натисніть (United Press) | 45% | 26% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 19% |
| 25/8/2018 | Моя Натисніть (My Press) | 45% | 25% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 20% |
| 28/8/2018 | Безкоштовна преса (Free Press) | 40% | 25% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 15% |