2015 Social Democratic Party of Scalizagasti leadership election

2015 Social Democratic Party of Scalizagasti leadership election
Turnout	48.2%
Leader before election; Laura Hannasuya (interim);	Elected Leader ; Sarah Millard;

A leadership election was held to replace David Keyes who died in Bewundal on 3 June 2014

The 2015 Social Democratic Party of Scalizagasti leadership election was held on 22 January 2015. Members of the Social Democratic Party of Scalizagasti, a major party in Scalizagasti, voted for a new leader following the death of David Keyes in 2014. Keyes was killed in a car crash on 3 June 2014, after which the election was immediately called so a new leader would have enough time to prepare for the upcoming 2016 federal election. Between Keyes' death and the election, Laura Hannasuya served as the interim party leader.

Five candidates made it onto the ballot: Saied Anwar, Alina Droste, Sarah Millard, Marcel Nystrom, and Oscar Yakobo. To qualify, a candidate needed to pay an entrance fee of $15,000. Anyone with a valid party membership purchased before 9 January 2015 was eligible to vote in the election. Secret votes were cast by the members using a preferential ranked ballot to determine the winner. In total, 139,651 votes were cast, representing a turnout of 48.2%.

Sarah Millard was elected on the second ballot with 51.3% of the vote, becoming the second-youngest leader of the SDP at 33 years old. Millard would lead the SDP to victory in the 2016 Scalizagastian federal election in their greatest performance in over a decade, forming a coalition government with the Greens and two other parties.

Background

David Keyes was elected as leader of the SDP in the 2013 leadership election, replacing Bill Hu who resigned as leader due to a poor electoral performance. In mid-2014, Keyes was killed in a car crash while driving home from his Bewundal office, ending his time as leader before even having a chance to lead the party into an election.

The Social Democrats had consistently lost support every election since 2004 due to a series of corruption scandals. The 2012 election had been one of the worst performances for the SDP ever, winning only 31 seats with 5.7% of the popular vote. Some predicted the SDP would be permanently displaced by the Green Party which came in a record second place.

Millard and Nystrom both announced their candidacy early and were always seen as the two frontrunners. Millard, the SDP critic for youth affairs, was seen as the candidate representing the progressive urban wing of the party, while Nystrom, the former mayor of Hesmaron City, represented the rural unionist wing. There was a split within the party on whether the strategy for the next election should be to focus on the youth vote which went to the Greens in 2012, or the rural blue-collar vote which went to the conservative New Scalizagasti Party. Millard was also a well-known figure by the public after one of her parliamentary debates went viral in 2014, whereas the other candidates had much less name recognition outside the party.

Election Rules

According to the party constitution, any valid party member who purchased their membership at least two weeks prior to the election date could vote with a secret ranked ballot. The winner of the election would be chosen through an IRV system after someone eventually secures over 50% of the vote. If a candidate secures over 50% of the vote in the first ballot the later stages of vote counting are ended immediately.

To have their name on the ballot, a candidate needed to pay an entrance fee of $15,000. Campaign spending was limited to $500,000 per candidate.

Timeline

2014

3 June — Leader David Keyes passes away in Bewundal.
10 June — Laura Hannasuya is officially declared interim leader by party executive.
14 June — Laura Hannasuya sets date of leadership election to 22 January 2015.
22 July — Leadership election officially opens, six months before the election date.
23 July — Marcel Nystrom announces his candidacy for leader.
30 July — Diana Ronaldson announces her candidacy for leader.
1 August — Sarah Millard and Oscar Yakobo announce their candidacies for leader.
10 August — The candidacy of Marcel Nystrom is approved.
14 August — Alina Droste announces her candidacy for leader.
20 August — Saied Anwar announces his candidacy for leader.
26 August — The candidacy of Sarah Millard is approved.
27 August — Former leader Max Sormann confirms he has "no intention" to run for leader.
28 August — Don Winters announces his candidacy for leader.
2 September — The candidacies of Oscar Yakobo and Saied Anwar are approved.
13 September — The candidacy of Alina Droste is approved.
29 September — The candidacy of Don Winters is approved.
1 October — The entrance period ends, all candidates who did not qualify are dropped from the ballot.
16 October — The first debate is held between the six candidates.
5 November — Don Winters withdraws from the race to endorse Sarah Millard.
29 November — The second debate is held between the five candidates.
27 December — The third debate is held between the five candidates.

2015

1 January — Mail-in voting opens for those who have opted out of in-person voting.
9 January — Deadline to purchase a membership to be eligible to vote.
14 January — The fourth and final debate is held between the five candidates.
20 January — Deadline for all mail-in ballots.
22 January — First ballots announced at 7:00 PM. Alina Droste is eliminated at 7:38 PM and Saied Anwar withdraws at 7:42 PM. Sarah Millard declared winner on second ballot at 8:04 PM.

Candidates

Saied Anwar

Saied Anwar, 39, was an MP for Inner Blicamy from 2008-2012. He was also a Member of Nohachewan Parliament (MNP) for the provincial SDP before entering federal politics in the 2008 election.

Alina Droste

Alina Droste, 48, was an activist and author. Her most popular book, "Blaikie and Biyende: The two men who changed Scalizagastian politics," was published in 2013. She ran in the 2008 and 2012 elections in Nohachewa North but failed to win a seat both times.

Sarah Millard

Sarah Millard, 33, was the SDP Critic for Youth Affairs. She was first elected as an MP in 2012 for the district of Bewundal East. Before entering federal politics, she was a municipal policy advisor under Bewundal mayor John Ammoth.

Marcel Nystrom

Marcel Nystrom, 58, was the former mayor of Hesmaron City. He entered Parliament in the 2012 election as an MP for Hesmaron City, which was one of the few ridings where the SDP vote share increased from 2008. He was also a labour union organizer before entering municipal politics.

Diana Ronaldson

Diana Ronaldson, 46, was a professor of environmental sciences at the Weyburn Polytechnical Institute. She was third on the SDP list in Weyburn in the 2012 election, and did not win a seat. Her candidacy was withdrawn by the party because she did not pay the entrance fee by the mandatory deadline.

Don Winters

Don Winters, 71, was a cabinet minister under SDP PM Blaine Blaikie who left politics after the 2005 election. On 5 November 2014 he dropped out of the race and endorsed Sarah Millard, whom he said would "lead the party far better" than he ever could.

Oscar Yakobo

Oscar Yakobo, 50, was the former SDP governor of Palyria. He also ran in the 2013 Social Democratic Party of Scalizagasti leadership election where he lost on the first ballot to David Keyes. While he did not have a seat in the federal Parliament, he promised (like in 2013) that he would run in Monulla in 2016, or earlier if any openings arrived.

Opinion Polling

Due to the state of the party and the difficulty with such a small sample size, only three polls were conducted throughout the election. They were all conducted by Bewundal University on those with valid party membership. All the polls have a margin of error of 5%, 19 times out of 20.

Don Winters dropped out of the leadership race on 5 November 2014, so he was not included in the two subsequent polls.

Last date of polling	Sample size	ANWAR, Saied	DROSTE, Alina	MILLARD, Sarah	NYSTROM, Marcel	WINTERS, Don	YAKOBO, Oscar	Undecided
2 January 2015	1079	5%	5%	37%	28%	—	9%	16%
10 December 2014	1200	4%	3%	33%	29%	—	7%	24%
10 October 2014	763	2%	1%	15%	22%	1%	4%	55%