Tsabaran Civil War

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Tsabaran Political Crisis
DateJanuary 2019-present
Location
Status Ongoing
Belligerents
Tsabara Tsabaran federal government
Tsabara Tsabaran Federal Armed Forces
Tsabara Federal Police
Lions of the HomelandEmblem.png Lions of the Homeland
Haganah Symbol.svg Haganah
Beitar
Tsabara Atudite units of the TFAF
Flag of alIsbah.png Al-Isbah
TBR Emblem.png Tsabaran Resistance Brigades
Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq
Commanders and leaders
Tsabara Atwan al-Tughluq (2019)
Tsabara Yahya Aboud (2019-)
Tsabara Gen. Amir Salah (2019-)
Tsabara Gen. Rafiq Ali Benjedid (2019-)
Elazar-ben Ya'ir
Avraham Begin
Yair Ben-Avi
Hanna Markovna
Flag of alIsbah.png Hussein Ardashir al-Shar’a
Flag of alIsbah.png Hussein Al-Battar
Mustafa Saab
Samir Badreddine
Faizan Salah
Strength
~790,000 soldiers
114,385 police
Lions of the HomelandEmblem.png ~6,000-15,000 fighters
Haganah Symbol.svg 3,000-4,500 fighters
2,500-3,500 fighters
Tsabara ~11,000 soldiers
Flag of alIsbah.png 3,000-5,000 fighters
TBR Emblem.png 4,000-10,000 fighters
10,000-19,000 fighters
Casualties and losses
Per Tsabaran Government: 218 killed
358 injured
Per CBHRW: 613 killed
1,194 injured
Per TLDA: 777 killed
2,000 injured
Lions of the HomelandEmblem.png 191 killed or injured
~300 arrested
Haganah Symbol.svg 105-340 killed or injured
205 arrested
Flag of alIsbah.png ~88 killed
17 arrested
TBR Emblem.png +100 killed
+200 arrested
300-568 civilians killed (per Ministry of Health)
600-1,100 civilians killed (per CBHRW)
558-900 civilians injured

The Tsabaran Political Crisis or Tsabara Crisis is an ongoing ethno-sectarian conflict and political crisis in Tsabara. It began in response to political reforms under President Atwan al-Tughluq, in which the ethno-sectarian balance of power and representation was undermined in favour of the Badawiyan Irfanic population. President al-Tughluq died on 7 October 2019 from a heart-attack. His death led to a powergrab by Premier Yahya Aboud and a subsequent escalation in tensions. The political tensions have been deepened by widespread sectarian and ethnic violence, that has left an estimated 300-1,100 people dead.

While inter-sectarian tensions existed prior to 2019 over the political agenda of Atwan al-Tughluq, subsequent reforms at the start of 2019, including the removal of Atudite justices from the Supreme Court and their replacement by Badawiyans and the introduction of pro-Badawiyan taxation policies led to a significant increase in actions by the Lions of the Homeland-Tsabara. Repeated government efforts to undermine the confessionalist system alienated many mainstream Atudite figures and politicians. Tensions were further enflamed by the rise of Badawiyan pan-irfanics within Tughluq's government. Anti-government protests in Atudite-majority areas began in the Spring of 2019, which were met with harsh police responses. In August, the situation escalated significantly with the 2019 Sfira Attack, in which Atudite military units of the Tsabaran Federal Army entered the military base, attacking the base commanders and taking the estimated 2,500 Badawiyan soldiers hostage. An estimated 111 Badawiyan soldiers were killed and led to negotiations between the Atudite attackers and the government. President al-Tughluq agreed to a series of concessions to avoid storming base in late August, before dying on 7 October.

Following al-Tughluq's death, Premier Yahya Aboud assumed the office of President, without relinquishing the office of Premier. This led to widespread condemnations by Atudite and Sotirian political parties, accusing Aboud of a powergrab. Mass anti-government protests broke out, while the situation in Sfira was left uncertain. Inter-ethnic and sectarian violence escalated significantly, while Pan-Irfanic factions began to agitate the Badawiyan population against the Atudites. On the 2 November, seven Atudite-majority states threatened to secede from the Tsabaran federation if Aboud did not step down and call elections.

Origins

Communalist regime

Presidency of Atwan al-Tughluq

Failure to reform the economy

Pro-Badawiyan policies

Strongman rule

Constitutional weakenesses

Economic disparity

Income inequality

Rise of Pan-Irfanism

Timeline

January-March 2019

April-June 2019

July-September 2019

October-December 2019

Sfira Attack

Einat Kibbutz attack

Neogitations

Death of Al-Tughluq

Mass anti-government protests and threats of secession

Armed groups

Atudite

Badawiyan

Other

Reactions

Domestic

International