Third Sebrenskiyan-Ostlandian War
The Third Sebrenskiyan-Ostlandic War (sometimes the Third Sebrenskiyan-Ostlandian War) is a hypothetical military conflict which would take place between the Republic of Sebrenskiya and the Federal Republic of Ostland. The First Sebrenskian-Ostlandic War took place when Ostland invaded Sebrenskiya in the 1880s, and the Second Sebrenskiyan-Ostlandic War took place when Sebrenskiya entered the Pan-Septentrion War. The term has been occasionally used to describe the Sebrenskiyan-Ostlandic Border Conflict, but has also referred to a full-scale war scenario between the two countries.
Despite active hostilities between Sebrenskiya and Ostland since 1954, the countries have never engaged in large-scale armed conflict. There are many reasons this is likely, but some of the more proliferated ideas by international commentators is the fact that the states are near-parity and fear the consequences of losing the upper hand, and the possibility of the war being a spark of a wider Second Pan-Septentrion War.
International fears sparked of a third war between the two states in 2005 after the Mjors Port Terror Attack, and such a conflict was averted. However, since September of 2019, Sebrenskiya and Ostland have been rapidly spiraling towards military conflict.
Coinage
The first public usage of the term came from the Sebrenskiyan Federal Times, in an article called "Is This a Call to War?", in response to sudden military buildup by Ostland shortly after the Mjors terror attack. The *Times* used the phrase again in 2006, this time in an article titled "Avoiding the Third Sebrenskiyan-Ostlandic War: A Major Diplomatic Success for Themiclesia".
In internal documents, initially the plan for the war was called the "Riverine Defence Option One - Invasion". As Ostland didn't appear to back down, and other states proclaimed they would defend Ostland from unreasonable aggression, the military began planning for "Sebrenskiya-Ostland, War Three". Eventually, the conflict became codenamed "Southern Guard", as revealed through declassified documents.
Military Plans
Riverine Defence Option One - Invasion
Ostlandic resistance to the denial of the waterways caught Sebrenskiyan military planners off guard. It was initially believed that Ostland could not deter military aggression by Sebrenskiya, so Sebrenskiya prepared invasion plans which involved capturing the waterways and seizing of the City of Krossa.
(wip)