Zemplen War

Zemplen War
Clockwise from top: Syaran artillery during the initial invasion; A Syaran tank on the outskirts of Sagerejo; A Syaran soldier taking up a defensive position at the base of the Kurilla Mountains; Ruvelkan armor advances; A Ruvelkan attack helicopter taking off in the summer of 2009; Ruvelkan Fusiliers during the Winter Counteroffensive.
Date 23 May 2008 – 19 July 2010 (2 year, 1 months, 27 days) Location Ruvelka, Syara Result Treaty of Aragon Territorial changes The Zemplen, Armavir, and Imerti regions are returned to Ruvelka in exchange for returning the Tarnova and Rostuša regions to Syara.
Belligerents
Ruvelka Supported by: Acrea	Syara
Commanders and leaders
Edviná Molnár	Dragomir Zhelev
Strength
4.7 million	4.1 million
Casualties and losses
355,671 killed 24,452 missing 1.2 million wounded	370,791 killed 27,886 missing 1.3 million wounded

The Zemplen War (Syaran: Zemplenska vojna) was a major conflict fought between Ruvelka and Syara over the long-disputed territory of Zemplen. The war took place between 23 May 2008 to 19 July 2010 following a period of heightened tensions between the two nations over the Zemplen territory, a border province that was populated primarily by ethnic Ruvelkans but controlled by Syara. After a period of escalation, conventional hostilities broke out that pitted largely two equal powers against one another in what would be one of the bloodiest conflicts in Tyran of the 21st Century.

Syara and Ruvelka had long fought over disputed territory following the collapse of the Arkoennite Empire. During the Ruvelkan Civil War, Syara had invaded and occupied several regions of western Ruvelka and maintained a number of these territories even in the era following the end of the Siduri War, the Zemplen area being the largest in terms of size and population. Per an agreement between the Syaran and Ruvelkan governments, both sides had deployed peacekeepers to the area in an attempt to reduce tensions. In 2005 the two nations came to blows in the Imerti Conflict, a brief five day war that further soured relations between Ruvelka and Syara. After a rise in nationalist activity, however, the Syarans doubled the size of their peacekeeping force. While this increase in military presence was within the parameters of the agreement, the build-up was heavily armed and included tanks and artillery. Ruvelka protested and responded with an increase in its own forces. A series of unresolved standoffs followed and eventually broke out into fighting between the two sides, prompting both nations to mobilize their armed forces. Attempts to mediate the conflict failed after neither side was able to come to an agreement.

Syaran and Ruvelkan forces were largely evenly matched in terms of numbers, technology, and training. As a result, many of the early major battles in the early months of the were were largely inconclusive. In August 2008 Syara unleashed a major offensive aimed at northern and southern Ruvelka, resulting in major gains made between August through October. In late November Ruvelka launched a strategic counter-offensive that lasted until late December, which reduced Syaran gains across the entire front. In the Spring of 2009 Syara launched a number of offensives in the north and south but failed to make much progress against Ruvelkan forces in the south, resulting in a stalemate around Aszód. By the summer of 2009 Syara had captured Kaposvar and Kunhegyes, but another failed offensive against the Aszód front resulted in a protracted stalemate in the autumn of 2009. In the winter of 2009-2010 Syara launched a major offensive in central and northern Ruvelka, but suffered heavy casualties and failed to achieve a major breakthrough. In early 2010 Ruvelka began gathering its strategic reserves for a major offensive, which it unleashed in June, throwing the frontline into dissarray and forcing Syara to withdraw from Ruvelka entirely. Both sides agreed to a ceasefire in July.

The peace talks were mediated by Shalum and resulted in the Treaty of Aragon. Syara was forced to abandon all its claims to Zemplen and all disputed territories inhabited primarily by Ruvelkans; in exchange Syara received lands that were controlled by Ruvelka but populated by ethnic Syarans. Although the terms of the treaty exchanged ethnic territories, it was largely seen to have favored Ruvelka as Syara lost 8,045 square kilometers of territory. Diplomatic relations between the two nations were eventually re-established in 2011.

Fought between two modernized and industrialized nations on par with one another in terms of technology and organization, the war shattered many pre-concienved notions about how a modern war between peer opponents would play out. Expectations of a rapid war of technological dominance were overshadowed quickly by the rapid depletion of smart munitions, advanced fighter aircraft, and modern armored fighting vehicles, and instead boiled down into a war of attrition marked by heavy casualties and slow moving offensives. Both Ruvelka and Syara conducted extensive information warfare efforts to sway international opinion to either side. In an agreement with Ossoria and Cacerta, both Ruvelka and Syara abstained from naval operations in the Sundering Sea so as to avoid interference with the major sea lanes that ran through the Divide. In the air, Ruvelka initiated a strategic bombing campaign to destroy Syaran military production facilities and manufacturing capability. Both sides conducted cyberattacks on one another. The war was extensively covered by international media outlets on television and the internet. Tensions remained high between Ruvelka and Syara in the years following the war, and only recently have both sides made efforts towards establishing a peaceful relationship.

Background

The territory of Zemplen had been contested between Ruvelka and Syara for much of modern history. Tensions between the two sides increased following the dissolution of the Ruvelkan Imperium and the outbreak of the Ruvelkan Civil War. Before becoming distracted by the Divide War, Syaran forces intervened in the fighting by seizing control of Zemplen. None of the Ruvelkan factions were in a position to stop the seizure, and Zemplen was annexed by Syara following the war.

Despite Syaran efforts to encourage Ruvelkan emigration from Zemplen, a sizeable Ruvelkan population remained within the territory in the years leading up to the Siduri War. Zemplen was used as a staging point for the Syaran invasion, and remained under Syaran control after the end of the war, as the Commom Axis felt that pre-war borders needed to be restored. Syaran control over Ruvelka remained a sore spot for Ruvelka, but in the post-war reconstruction there was little desire to force another conflict. In the 1980s both sides had undergone radical domestic changes, with Syara sliding into the Refusal War. Despite the ongoing civil war, the Ruvelkan government elected to avoid any attempt at recapturing Zemplen, fearing the possibility of getting dragged into the conflict. The Wardens rise to power in Syara prompted concern within Ruvelka, which was fearful of a nationalist, revolutionary Syara. Relations between the two powers managed to remain largely cordial despite comments made by public officials on both sides. Beginning in the 21st century however relations began to sour considerably. In 2003 Syara and Ruvelka clashed in the Imerti Conflict, a brief five day undeclared war in which Ruvelkan military forces attempted to seize control of strategic areas within the Imerti territory. Ruvelkan forces however were unable to force out Syaran garrison troops, and a ceasefire was brokered by Acrea.

The brief fighting over Imerti set the tone for Ruvelkan-Syaran relations over the next several years, with both sides viewing each other with suspicion and accusing the other of fostering and promoting instability. Both nations began extensive military buildups, increasing productions of weaponry and armaments while expanding the size of their armed forces. As part of the Imerti ceasefire, both Ruvelka and Syara had agreed to deploy peacekeepers to disputed territories to prevent the outbreak of nationalist inspired acts of violence. In Zemplen, both sides were authorized to deploy peacekeeping contingents of 2,000 personnel, though in practice nominal levels were roughly 1,200 on each side. Tensions remained high between 2003-2008, eventually coming to a head in the spring of 2008.

In January 2008 Telev Mining Consortium, the second largest employer in all of Zemplen, filed for bankruptcy and laid off it's entire workforce within the region. Unemployment skyrocketed, and Zemplen's economy, long dependent on the mining industry, began to collapse. In Feburary after extensive lobbying the Syaran government agreed to implement a stimulus program aimed at revitalizing Zemplen's economic fortunes. However in the midst of a general economic downturn caused by a recession in Azurlavai, Syara's largest trading partner, the Syaran government limited it's stimulus package to focus on urban areas populated predominantly by ethnic Syarans. While not officially excluding Ruvelkans, the prioritization of Syaran neighborhoods had clear effects on Zemplen. By March revitalization efforts had largely stabilized wages and unemployment numbers for Syaran towns, while Ruvelkans living in Zemplen struggled with rabid unemployment, food shortages, and rolling blackouts. On 11 March the Ruvelkan government announced its intentions to start aid deliveries to ethnic Ruvelkan enclaves in Zemplen, which Syara refused to allow out of fear that the Ruvelkan government would attempt to smuggle in weapons, as had happened in Imteri five years prior.

Riots soon broke out in ethnic Ruvelkan population centers, leading Syara to increase its peacekeeping force to the maximum limit of 2,000 troops. Debrecen condemned the act, pointing out that Syaran peacekeepers were being reinforced with main battle tanks and heavy artillery, and not further law enforcement or riot police. In response Ruvelka deployed additional peacekeepers, a move that Zovahr denounced as a "flagrant attempt at intimidation through escalation". Through April 2008 there were more than 50 reported clashes between peacekeeping forces and rioters, resulting in 27 deaths and hundreds of injuries, along with hundreds of arrests. On 13 April Ruvelkan peacekeepers operating near the border town of Siratz were shelled, resulting in the death of two Ruvelkan soldiers. Syara denied responsibility, blaming the attack on Ruvelkan nationalists within Zemplen.

On 25 April riots broke out in Sopron as over 15,000 ethnic Ruvelkans occupied the city center, demanding a withdrawal of Syaran peacekeepers and allowance of aid from the Principality. The protestors remained in Sopron until 14 May, when they were finally forced to disperse by Syaran riot and military police in clashes that killed 17 people and left more than 500 wounded. Ruvelka urged the Organization of Tyrannic States to officially condemn Syara, which the Commonality responded by accusing Ruvelka of inciting ethnic violence within Zemplen. Tensions finally came to a head on 20 May when Ruvelkan nationalists seized control of a radio station on the outskirts of Szellő and began broadcasting anti-Syaran messages. A Syaran peacekeeping force was dispatched to take control of the radio station and arrest the Ruvelkans, all of this just 2 kilometers from a Ruvelkan peacekeeping outpost. According to Syara, when Syaran peacekeepers approached the radio station they were fired upon by the inhabitants, forcing them to level the building. Ruvelka maintains that Syaran forces purposefully destroyed the building before attempting any kind of take over. A nearby Ruvelkan patrol, which was attempting to respond to a distress call issued by the radio station, arrived on the scene shortly thereafter. Both sides reacted negatively to the other's presence, and a firefight broke out between the two forces. Syara and Ruvelka to this day maintain the other side fired first, but by 16 May clashes between the two peacekeeping forces had broken out across Zemplen.

Although both sides made efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, neither was able to come to terms. Syara refused to remove it's peacekeepers until Ruvelka did so, and Ruvelka was unwilling to remove their protection of ethnic Ruvelkans in Zemplen. Both sides hastily mobilized nearby military forces and deployed them to Zemplen, resulting in a series of engagements that began on 23 May, which is generally considered to mark the beginning of the war.

Build up and deployed forces

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities between the two sides both Ruvelka and Syara had mobilized military forces and placed units near the border on high alert, but the rapid unfolding of the conflict meant that both sides were largely caught unprepared for the scale of the fighting. The months of June and July 2008 saw frequent but disorganizing engagements between Syara and Ruvelkan forces as military units were committed piecemeal, responding to tactical developments rather than any greater operational or strategic planning. By late July however the Syaran Commonality Armed Forces had been organized enough to launch a series of general offensives across the entirety of the border, resulting in heavy Ruvelkan losses.

Both sides would go on to mobilize large conscript armies and produce large amounts of military hardware and ammunition over the course of the war. Ruvelka enjoyed a numerical advantage during most of the war due to it's larger population and deeper reserve system, namely the Territorial Forces.

Course of the War

Border Battles

Although both the Imperial Armed Forces of Ruvelka and the Syaran Commonality Armed Forces had been placed on high alert and partially mobilized prior to the outbreak of hostilities, neither side was fully prepared for the scale of the fighting, which quickly escalated to beyond Zemplen. On 24 May two battalions of the Ruvelkan 18th Royal Mechanized Division were ordered to advance into Zemplen and secure strategic areas near ethnic Ruvelkan towns, while on the same day elements of the Syaran 23rd Mechanized Infantry Division were ordered to take up positions within Zemplen to repel expected Ruvelkan assaults. Fighting quickly erupted across the rest of the border in a series of confusing and ad hoc engagements between border forces.

On 25 May Syaran troops shelled Ruvelkan positions along the border in the Kunhegyes Distrct, resulting in a number of casualties both civilian and military. Further south on 27 May Ruvelkan fighters from Albertirsa bombed Syaran border outposts, killing or injuring twenty Syaran border guards. Such one sided engagements continued until roughly mid-June, when mobilized military forces began conducting organized operations. On 4 June the Syaran Central Command issued a full mobilization and call up of all reserves, which was followed by an official declaration of war issued by Zovahr later in the day. The Syaran declaration placed the blame fully on Ruvelka for "instigating ethnic violence and lawlessness within disputed regions". Debrecen responded with it's own declaration of hostilities just after midnight, resulting in both nations being in a state of war effective 5 June. The Ruvelkan Imperial General Staff ordered an immediate mobilization of all military forces including the Territorial Defense Forces.

A Ruvelkan HH1 Attack Helicopter abandoned by the Ruvelkans.

While sporadic fighting and skirmishes continued to erupt all throughout June and July, the Organization of Tyrannic States attempted to negotiate a ceasefire between Ruvelka and Syara. Despite 12 sessions over a two week period in mid July no agreement was reached, with both sides blaming the other for a refusal to compromise. Once it became clear the conflict would not be halted in the short term, pressure from both Ossoria and Cacerta resulted in a rare joint Ruvelkan-Syaran agreement to refrain from any kind of naval operations within the Sundering Sea. A joint Ossorian-Cacertian task force would remain off the cost of the two nations for the duration of the conflict, and no major incidents occurred between the Ruvelkan and Syaran navies in the Divide.

By late July it was clear that a negotiated settlement would not bring an end to the fighting. In the meanwhile both Syara and Ruvelka had deployed hundreds of thousands of troops to the border, and major military operations were underway. Both sides developed plans on how to resolve the conflict. The Syaran Central Command envisioned a major thrust into all disputed regions with the assumption that once all territory was under Syaran control, Ruvelka would have no choice but to accept a ceasefire. Ruvelkan planning was largely focused on Zemplen; despite the outbreak of fighting across the entire border the Imperial General Staff believed that Syara would not pursue a large scale conflict given how suddenly it had broken out. As a result Ruvelkan forces were arrayed across the border in a generally uneven defensive line, with units unable to support each other and little depth to their lines. Syaran forces assembled on the border were organized into three Army Groups, Alpha in the north, Beta in the center, and Gamma in the south. The total Syaran front line strength was roughly 43 divisions. Ruvelkan border forces consisted of 49 divisions, but Ruvelkan formations were smaller than Syaran ones, and possessed less combat power.

August offensives

On 1 August Syara launched a series of offensives aimed at seizing control of all disputed territories, including Zemplen, Armavir, and Imerti. Syaran forces began shelling Ruvelkan positions in the early morning before armored and mechanized forces began ground assaults. The scale of the operations overwhelmed the Ruvelkan defenders, whom had organized their forces centered around defending Zemplen. As a result many Ruvelkan units were poorly arranged to defend against the scale of the attack, resulting in rapid Syaran gains during the first few days of the offensives. By 7 August Syara had captured over 150 villages, towns, and cities in the disputed regions, causing a mass exodus of the Ruvelkan populations of those territories. Within two weeks an estimated 1.5 million Ruvelkans had fled from the disputed regions.

Syaran troops in Kunhegyes District

By 10 August Ruvelkan defenses along the border were beginning to crumble under the weight of the Syaran offensives. In the Kunhegyes District Ruvelkan forces began to retreat starting on 11 August, allowing Syaran forces to capture the small city of Gerjen on 12 August. Elsewhere along the front Ruvelkan forces began to buckle and withdraw further east. On 15 August Chancellor Edviná Molnár confirmed that Ruvelkan forces were pulling back from the disputed regions but denied that Ruvelka was willing to accept a ceasefire. Molnár later stated that Ruvlelka would not accept an armistice until "the invaders have been driven from every inch of our soil". By 20 August Syaran troops were in control of over 90% of the disputed regions. Executive Dragomir Zhelev announced a unilateral ceasefire on 22 August, but it was quickly broken when Ruvelkan and Syaran forces clashed near the town of Tira in the Sagerejo District.

The Ruvelkan refusal to accept terms surprised the Syaran government, who assumed that Ruvelka would sue for peace after being driven out of the disputed regions. Attempts to negotiate a ceasefire was outright refuted by Debrecen, who stated they would only negotiate once Syaran forces had pulled back to pre-war borders, a demand that was summarily refused by Syara. For the next few weeks there was comparatively little fighting save for sporadic skirmishes bewteen Syaran and Ruvelkan forces as the Syaran government tried to decide a new course of action. In general the Syaran government did not desire a protracted war, but did not believe that Ruvelka would simply accept Syaran control of the disputed regions. Beginning on 27 August Syaran intelligence also deduced that Ruvelka was massing forces for a counter offensive, aimed at 'liberation' the disputed regions from Syaran control. With that in mind Syaran Central Command devised a new strategy; the destruction of the Imperial Armed Forces of Ruvelka, under the assumption that with it's military destroyed Ruvelka would have no choice but to cede to Syaran demands. Syaran assumption that the SCAF would be able to defeat the IAFR was based on the success the Syarans had found during the August offensives, but Central Command failed to take into account that a war of attrition favored Ruvelka, with it's larger population and deeper reserves of manpower. Aware that Ruvelkan reserves were beginning to mass, the SCAF began preparing for an immediate resumption of the offensive.

Syaran invasion

On 14 September 2008 Syara launched a full scale invasion of western Ruvelka. The Syaran Air Force began the offensive in the early morning by striking at Ruvelkan airfields and defensive positions, hoping to sow chaos behind Ruvelkan lines and prevent the escape of Ruvelkan forces along the border. Syaran success was limited as the Ruvelkan Imperial Air Force counter attacked and downed several Syaran aircraft. Throughout the morning Syaran artillery continued to shell Ruvelkan outposts and bases across the border. In conjunction with airstrikes, the Syarans managed to disrupt the coordination and defensive efforts of the Ruvelkan Imperial Army. Not long after Syaran ground forces crossed the border in a multi-pronged offensive across the 600 kilometer border. The Syaran government publicly stated the intention of their invasion was ultimately to force Ruvelka into a ceasefire, but the action nevertheless drew condemnation by several countries.

The Syaran invasion force was divided into three Army Groups, Alpha in the north, Beta in the center, and Gamma in the south. Each Army Group was composed of three field armies, and three corps per field army. A total of 140 Syaran divisions, many of which had only been activated in the four weeks before the invasion, took part in the invasion, which was known to the Syarans as Operation Aspis. Opposite were six Ruvelkan Fronts, each composed of four or five field armies. A total of 171 Ruvelkan divisions had been activated, although nearly all were smaller than their Syaran counterparts. Although Syara framed its invasion in ultimately defensive terms, right up to the name (Aspis meaning 'shield'), the Syaran goal was to destroy as many Ruvelkan forces as possible and therefore focused on wide sweeping offensive operations designed to encircle and destroy Ruvelkan divisions in detail. Although on average heavier and better armed than their Ruvelkan counterparts, Syaran divisions had difficult maneuvering in the thick forests and valleys of western Ruvelka.

A Ruvelkan soldier fires an anti-tank guided missile at Syaran forces near Bokros, Sagerejo District.

By 3 October both sides had traded numerous operations, but in mid-October Syaran forces achieved a major victory in Operation Dzvezdan. In the sky the Ruvelkans enjoyed more success, where their numerical superiority (Ruvelka started the war with 933 fighter jets, Syara fielded 620) allowed them to contest and frequently bombard Syaran ground forces. Syaran efforts to do the same were limited. Despite fielding over 800 strike aircraft, fixed wing gunships, and tactical bombers, these slow moving aircraft proved especially vulnerable to Ruvelkan air defense systems. The Commonality Air Force would spend the duration of the war playing catch up to the Ruvelkan Imperial Air Force, losing 422 aircraft in the process.

By 15 October the Syarans had made serious inroads into Ruvelka, capturing Kunhegyes, Balatonalmadi, Dunakesi, Pannonhalma and Albertirsa, while laying siege to Aszod. Syaran forces were also closing in on Sagerejo and Kaposvar. Further advances were beginning to be harder to come by however as Syaran forces began approaching the foothills of the Kurilla and Matra mountain ranges. As the frightening began to grind to a halt both sides were forced to call up further reserves and mass produce more armaments, which Ruvelka was able to pursue with more efficiency. Both sides soon fielded thousands of tanks and artillery pieces, but foreign observers were quick to note this was accomplished largely be fielding outdated models and weaponry. Syaran armor became increasingly composed of 40 year old tank designs, while Ruvelka was forced to press light tanks and light armor into roles typically reserved for heavier main battle tanks.

Ruvelka improvised a number of tactics to deal with Syaran superiority in firepower. Chief amongst these was infiltration, often carried out by Fusiliers who either snuck in through dense forests or by crossing over mountains, or being inserted by helicopter behind enemy lines. Ambushes, raids, and constant shifting of forces became standard for Ruvelkan troops, who were often able to slip out of Syaran attempts at encirclement. Syaran army units countered by continually trying to force Ruvelkan forces into set piece battles where Syaran armor and artillery was usually enough to win the day. Both sides were forced to develop counters to each other's tactics. Syaran troops often had to be peeled off the front lines to perform rear security, while air defense units had to be deployed very close to the front lines in order to protect against Ruvelkan attack helicopter raids. Ruvelkan troops on their part attempted to avoid engaging Syaran forces for an extended duration of time, out of fear of being targeted by Syaran heavy artillery.

Syaran troops in Ruvelka

Winter Counter-Offensive

Ruvelkan forces had been on the back foot since August and despite fierce resistance much of western Ruvelkan was under Syaran control. Beginning in October the Imperial General Staff began planning out a general strategic offensive aimed at pushing back Syaran forces on all fronts. To accomplish this goal the Imperial General Staff envisioned a series of piercing thrusts, code named Operation: Szablya, to destroy the Syaran 6th and 3rd Armies. It was in effect, a reversal of what the Syarans were planning (unknown to the Ruvelkans). Ruvelka aimed to cut off and destroy Army Group Beta, the largest of the Syaran formations. It was hoped that a collapse of the Syaran center would then force Army Groups Alpha and Gamma to withdraw or face being outflanked, and opening up central Ruvelka for future advances to recapture Zemplen.

Ruvelka began massing troops even as Syaran forces pushed deeper and deeper into Ruvelka. The Imperial General Staff counted on the Karilla mountains to stall the Syaran advance, which it largely did. Behind the protection of the Karilla range Ruvelka massed some 250,000 troops in addition to thousands of armored vehicles and artillery pieces. Syaran intelligence remained largely in the dark about Ruvelkan intentions originally, but by mid-November there was general awareness among Syaran senior leadership of Ruvelkan intentions to launch a counter-offensive, but mistakenly assumed that Ruvelka aimed to focus on Army Groups Alpha and Beta. Only Colonel General Arisdages Koundakjian, Deputy Commander of Army Group Beta, suspected the main blow would fall on the Syaran center, but his efforts to redeploy the Army Groups reserves were loudly rejected by it's commander, Field Marshall Aleksandar Čorić.

The Ruvelkan counter-offensive began on 13 November with infiltration into the Syaran rear by multiple regiments of Ruvelkan Fusiliers, who proceeded to wreak havoc with Syaran lines of communication and supply. Shortly thereafter Ruvlekan forces counter-attacked across all sectors manned by Army Group Beta. Within 72 hours the Syaran first echelon had collapsed, resulting in thousands of Syaran troops being captured by the Ruvelkans. The situation facing Army Group Beta remained in chaos as the days went by, interrupted by pitched battles from isolated Syaran forces against the Ruvelkan advance. Syaran forces struggled to contain the outbreak of Ruvelkan forces smashing through their defenses, and by 25 November they had suffered more than 15,000 casualties. Because of his failure to contain the situation, Field Marshall Aleksandar Čorić was sacked on 1 December and replaced by his deputy, Colonel General Koundakjian. Koundakjian immedatiely began organizing Army Group Beta's armored reserves to move into blocking positions along the Ruvelkan line of advance.

Ruvelkan mechanized troops counterattack

While Ruvelkan forces in the north and south had been ordered to carry out their own local counter-strokes in order to keep the Syarans off balance, by late November it was clear that the main drive was against the Syaran center. At the request of recently promoted Field Marshall Koundakjian, Army Groups Alpha and Gamma launched their own local offensives against Ruvelkan forces. Meanwhile in the center, the rapid Ruvelkan advance began to founder as heavy Syaran mechanized and armored divisions entered the fray. On 6 December the Syaran XII Corps launched a series of counterstrokes in the Sagerejo District, blunting the Ruvelkan advance and destroyed the Ruvelkan 8th Infantry Division. By 10 December the Ruvelkan advance had been halted in all sectors. Over the next few days sporadic fighting broke out as both sides attempted to resume the offensive. The counter-offensive was finally declared over on 23 December by the Ruvelkan Imperial General Staff, and a Christmas ceasefire was agreed to the next day.

Operation Szablya resulted in impressive initial gains for the Ruvelkans, but in the end it had been a costly operational failure. Ruvelkan losses amounted to nearly 100,000 killed, wounded, missing, and captured. Syaran losses were not much better, standing at roughly 78,316. Although Szablya had fallen short, the lessons learned by the Ruvelkans would later return to prominence later in the war.

Syara resumes the initiative

Having weathered the Ruvelkan winter counter-offensive, Syara prepared to resume offensive operations in the spring. Fighting died down during the winter months due to heavy snowfall across most of Ruvelka. Although the Syaran Central Command was confident following it's handling of the Ruvelkan offensive, there was growing concern within some circles of Syaran senior leadership. The winter counter-offensive had shown the Ruvelkan military still possessed sizeable reserves, capable of weathering severe losses. Syaran strategy rested on the ability of the SCAF to destroy the Ruvelkan military as a fighting force, but every indication suggested that Ruvelkan forces were still in comparatively good shape. Making matters worse for Syara was the commencement of a Ruvelkan strategic bombing campaign against Syaran industry and military production facilities, which threatened to devastate Syara's war effort. While the bombers were never able to do enough damage to severely impact Syara's industry, the threat of bombings forced Syara to divert fighters and air defense systems away from the front line, depriving their forces of much needed air protection.

Despite such concerns, Central Command remained committed to the offensive and planned several major operations for the spring. With the Karilla Mountains largely deadlocking Army Group Beta, focus was shifted to Army Groups Alpha and Gamma. Central Command envisioned a dual thrust, with gamma cutting through Ruvelkan defenses and breaking into the Püspökladány District. Alpha would push further west into the Mátészalka District, the ultimate goal being to capture Marcali. It was expected that Syaran forces would be able to make the same steady progress against Ruvelkan defenses, while Army Group Beta would continue to pressure central Ruvelka, including Debrecen. It was never the intention of expectation that Syaran forces would seriously threaten the capital, but they would at least divert Ruvelkan reserves away from other sectors of the front.

Having recovered from their losses and the aftermath of the Counteroffensive, Syara took to the attack in mid-March, with a limited offensive by Army Group Gamma. The Syarans encountered unexpected success, encircling and destroying three Ruvelkan divisions that were unable to escape Syaran pincer movements. The surprising victory was enabled in large part to the badly mauled nature of Ruvelkan forces in the southern front, but the major effect of the battle was the convincing of Central Command that Syara's strategy was an attainable goal. In February Syara took to the offensive again, this time in the center. Having completed training in the winter, Syara deployed 6 of it's newly trained Light Infantry divisions to reinforce Army Group Beta, which began a series of offensive thrusts into central Ruvelkan highlands. Here the battles took on a new dynamic as Syaran Light Infantry fought against Ruvelkan Fusiliers and Mountain troops atop some of Ruvelka's highest peaks. Ruvelkan grit and determination won out in the end, and Army Group Beta failed to make major headway.

Despite the lack of success in the center sectors of the front, optimism remained high for the Syarans as they began another series of offensives by Army Groups Alpha and Gamma. In March Syara launched a 40 division assault in the north and south. By now the Ruvelkan military had begun fielding new models and techniques to counter the deficiencies they had previously struggled with, and the repeat of January's southern attack that Syara was hoping for failed to materialize. Intense combat between armored formations saw the largest tank battles since the Great War, but instead of decisive results the end game was simply high casualties for modest gains. Frustrating Syaran efforts was the apparent refusal of Ruvelkan forces to commit fully to battle, forcing Syaran units to engage in long, drawn out operations spent clearing hardpoints and obstacles. Ruvelkan forces spent little time actually engaging Syaran formations, opting instead for light skirmishing before entire regiments could be redeployed and the process repeated from another direction. Ruvelkan forces still could not match Syaran firepower, but it mattered little when the actual engagements were happening too infrequently to bring the full Syaran arsenal to bear.

Syaran tank near Nagytőke, Püspökladány District.

By April the Syarans had once again exhausted themselves for moderate gains that did little to suggest Syara's strategy was working. Ruvelkan formations had been repeatedly smashed only to reappear fresh and refit. Syaran attempts to pin down Ruvelkan forces and obliterate them with heavy artillery and armored assaults proved largely fruitless. Events beyond the battlefield were now directly influencing the course of the war. By April Syaran foreign currency reserves had been badly depleted, and manufacturing was now in danger of faltering. Syara needed a constant stream of ammunition, spare parts, fuel, and vehicles in order to sustain their offensives, but in it's current mode Syara's economy was struggling to meet that demand. Manpower was becoming an issue as well; losses was outstripping replenishment, and war weariness was driving down recruitment numbers. A report by Central Command outlined Syara needed some 300,000 new troops for the summer, but expected replacements would be just 120,000. Enacting conscription was a potentially suicidal political option. By now the Syaran government was growing weary of the perceived failure to defeat Ruvelka and increasingly aware of the time table Syara was operating on.

But more importantly, so was Ruvelka. By March Ruvelkan intelligence had identified Syaran concerns regarding their faltering economic conditions as well, and had determined the ultimate strategic gains of the Commonality. As the Syaran offensives ground to a halt, the Ruvelkan Imperial General Staff concluded that a victory was possible by virtue of another ground offensive. But rather than focus on a distinct objective, the goal would be a complete assault across the entire front. Aware of Syara's growing manpower shortages, the General Staff concluded that by overwhelming Syaran forces across the entire front, Syara would be unable to redeploy reserves to cover all breakthroughs, forcing a complete collapse of the line. It would be costly, but if carried out effectively it could reverse the entire course of the war. The plan gained tacit approval by the Chancellor's Council, and was set forth. Ruvelka began massing it's strategic reserves across the front lines in preparation for the final assault.

Political indecision was now handicapping Syaran strategy. Despite countless offensive operations and a quarter of a million deaths, the SCAF could not report the destruction of the Ruvelkan military. While Ruvelkan losses were estimated to be similar, this was of little comfort to Zovahr. By now it was apparent that Syara was losing the ability to wage war, and only drastic measures such as rationing, and conscription could alleviate it. But growing war weariness and unease among the general populace made that a highly suspect and political insanity. Zovahr was now torn between two stances; it could not carry on the war without necessary measures, but it lacked the will to implement them. Meanwhile Central Command was in dire need of leadership itself. Ultimately subordinate to the civilian government, the SCAF could only offer it's suggestions, but when actually faced with difficult strategic questions it failed to deliver. Only two options seemed feasible; continue to attack and hope that the Ruvelkans would break, or hunker down and try to forc a diplomatic settlement.

Neither option was appealing. Further offensives had no promise of succeeding. Diplomacy seemed unlikely to work given that Ruvelka still demanded a complete withdrawal from their soil to pre-war boundaries. That was unacceptable to Zovahr given all the blood that had been shed to get this far. So when strong leadership was needed most, Syara could not come forward with a working solution. Idly, the SCAF planned another round of offensives. In May Syaran forces performed a familiar chorus; costly attacks for little gains. By now tens of thousands of kilometers of Ruvelka were under Syaran occupation, but victory seemed no closer. Indeed, the situation seemed increasingly poor. The SNA was spread out over a vast front line some 2,000 kilometers long. Its positions were awkward, often times warped around difficult terrain so that adjacent units could not directly support one another. To make matters worse, Syaran intelligence had begun to detect a massive buildup of Ruvelkan forces. It was expected that a major counter offensive would be launched later in the summer.

Ruvelkan summer offensive

Throughout March until May 2009, Ruvelka had steadily been mobilizing and organizing a strategic reserves behind the safety of the Karilla Mountains. By May this amounted to over 300,000 troops. Syaran forces by comparison were beginning to run seriously low on reserves, having depleted them during their spring operations. Having abandoned the concept of a series of limited thrusts, on 7 June Ruvelka committed to an all out strategic offensive along the entire front line, throwing the full weight of it's reserves, armor, and air power against the Syaran Army Groups. The overwhelming nature of the offensive quickly overran Syara's primary and secondary defensive lines, and within four days the SCAF was in full retreat.

Pitched battles erupted across the front as Syaran armored and mechanized reserves attempted to stem the tide of Ruvelkan forces, but were largely in vain. On 10 June the Syarans abandoned Sagerejo, and a day later had pulled completely out of the Püspökladány District. Further losses were to follow as on 22 June Syaran forces abanonded the long standing Siege of Aszod, and two days later abandoned Dunakesi. By 28 June Syaran forces had pulled back to the pre-war borders, hoping to establish a new defensive line and halt the Ruvelkan advance. Ruvelka however continued to attack, resulting in climactic engagements in Zemplen, Imerti, and Avramir. Syara forces, depleted of manpower, were forced to abandon most of their heavy equipment as they finally abandoned their positions and fled back into Syaran territory. The Ruvelkan summer offensive finally came to a halt on 9 July.

A Syaran IFV abandoned in Zemplen.

Both sides had suffered heavy losses, but Syaran losses were irrecoverable. By the end of the offensive the Syarans had lost 1,300 tanks, 2,900 IFVs and APCs, 79 aircraft, and 1,600 artillery pieces. 150,000 Syaran troops were killed, missing, wounded, or captured. Syara's front finally stabilized on 10 July, but at that point there were no more reserves, and hardly any units were above 60% strength. Syara had been dealt a crushing defeat.

Ceasefire and Resolution

On 12 July Chancellor Edviná Molnár announced the cessation of Ruvelkan combat operations and declared that Ruvelka was ready to negotiate an end to the conflict with Syara. The next Zovahr signaled it's willingness to come to the table. Later that day both sides agreed to a summit held by Imperator Tyler Holland of Shalum. The summit was held on 16 July in Aragon, where both sides sat down to discuss the resolution to the conflict. It was attened by Chancellor Molnár and Executive Zhelev. The Ruvelkan proposal was as follows:

• Complete cessation of hostilities and signing of an official peace treaty
• All military forces stand down and be returned to their normal garrison stations
• Syaran withdraws all claims to control of Zemplen, Imerti, and Armavir
• Ruvelka will transition control of Tarnova and Rostuša to Syaran control
• Full exchange of prisoners of war
• Re-establishment of full diplomatic relations within an appropriate time frame

Syara was ultimately in no position to contest Ruvelkan demands and agreed to terms on the 17 of July, slated to officially go into effect on 19 July. The war was officially over at 0001 19 July 2009.

Aftermath

The Zemplen War had far reaching ramifications that continue to be felt to this day. Both states were profoundly affected by the conflict and it's aftermath, politically, economically, socially, and culturally.

Analysis

After the war, the Acrean Defense think tank Ruental and the Acrean Royal Institute for Defense and Security at Varberg published reports analyzing the performance of the SCAF and IRAF during the war.

Ruvelka

According to General Friedrich Eklund, Ruvelkan victory in the Zemplen War was largely a result of it's superior strategic planning and preparation for conflict. While Ruvelka did not envision a Syaran invasion, it's much deeper system of reserves, along with it's Territorial Defense Forces, and superior preparation of the civilian economy, allowed Ruvelka to sustain the war effort beyond what Syara was capable of. Ruvelkan grand strategy was fundamentally more sound than Syara's, emphasizing Ruvelka's advantages in numbers and long term planning. Ruvelkan usage of it's air power was tactically and strategically well executed, and Ruvelkan forces demonstrated strong tactical flexibility over their Syaran counterparts.

However Ruvelka suffered from a number of doctrinal and operational shortfalls. Ruvelkan doctrine emphasized highly autnonomous units carrying out their own operations, aimed at undermining the occupation of Ruvelka by a foreign power, and exploiting Ruvelka's natural terrain as defensive measures against invaders. This emphasis on unit autonomy had the negative consequence of leaving Ruvelkan forces poorly prepared to plan and carry out complex combined arms operations, a field in which they were routinely outclassed by their Syaran counterparts. The Ruvelkan winter-counteroffensive was a principal example of that, when Ruvelkan commanders developed the routinely bad habits of exploiting tactical gains instead of pursuing operational objectives. Ruvelkan operational art could be described as "undeveloped".

Ruvelkan forces routinely struggled to meet Syaran forces in the open field due to deficiencies in firepower and heavy armor. Ruvelkan armor was heavily centered around light tanks, which performed poorly when matched up against their Syaran counterparts. Early battles between armored formations routinely resulted in lopsided losses for Ruvelka, who's lighter tanks lacked the firepower, range, and armor to compete with Syaran main battle tanks. The Ruvelkan counter to this was to emphasize ambushes and asymmetric tactics to offset Syaran armor, but these were never universally effective. Ruvelkan efforts to counter Syaran armor ultimately ended up relying heavily on artillery barrages, which proved more reliable.

Ruvelka's decision to engage in a strategic bombing campaign was a controversial one. Ultimately the damage done to Syaran industry and logistics was negligible. For more damaging was that it forced Syara to divert aircraft from the front lines to protecting Syaran airspace. Ruvelkan willingness to bomb Syara was also impacted by Ruvelka's information war, which wanted to emphasize the defensive nature of the conflict for Ruvelka, and thus limited what the Ruvelkan Imperial Air Force was able to target.

Syara

Syara suffered from two major flaws; lack of a cohesive strategy and sufficient air power. Syara embarked on a war with originally limited gains, but then expanded the conflict into a major war without making proper strategic decisions. The goal of destroying the Ruvelkan military was based on an overestimation of Syaran military capability, and it failed to factor in Ruvelka's larger population and deeper reserves of manpower. Syaran leadership allowed itself to be distracted by operational victories and territorial acquisitions, which largely blinded them to growing strategic imbalances in manpower and frontage. Syara in general suffered from a lack of strong leadership at the highest level, with neither the civilian government nor the Central Command able to effectively communicate with each other when discussing strategic aims. A lack of strategic preparation for the war, namely the zero levels of preparation for the civilian economy meant that Syara was facing financial disaster towards the end of the war, and likely would've had extreme difficulties financing the war effort had the Ruvelkan summer offensive not occurred.

Syaran air power was at a significant disadvantage throughout the war. Syara started the war with almost 300 less fighter aircraft than Ruvelka, and a significant chunk of the rest of the Syaran air force was composed of tactical bombers and fixed wing gunships. Many of these aircraft, similar to the Cacertian Tartaruga, were slow and highly vulnerable to Ruvelkan MANPADS and SHORAD, and constituted the majority of Syaran aircraft shot down during the war. Syara possessed no strategic bombers or ballistic missiles, rendering it largely incapable of directly targeting Ruvelkan industry beyond the Karilla Mountains.

Syaran doctrine was a hit or miss issue throughout the war. Superior operational planning, centralized communication systems, and a more structured chain of command meant that Syaran operations were largely more successful than Ruvelkan. Syaran emphasis on firepower at all levels meant that Ruvelkan forces were routinely outgunned, and artillery exchanges almost always favored Syara. However Syara's emphasis on mechanized maneuver warfare was out of place in Ruvelka's rugged terrain, where Syaran armor and mechanized infantry were routinely unable to prevent lighter Ruvelkan forces from slipping away or escaping encirclement. Syara's attempts to circumvent this with the training and deployment of Light Infantry divisions diminished this flaw somewhat, but Syara continued to rely heavily on mechanized formations that were largely inflexible.

Impact

In Syara, the shock of the defeat after months of what seemed like military success profoundly shook the core of Syara's Warden ideology. The administration of Dragomir Zhelev collapsed shortly after Syara's defeat, with the former Executive receiving much of the blame for Syara's woes. The Syaran economy struggled in the immediate post war aftermath, though by the end of 2009 had largely recovered in terms of trade volume. Syaran society was deeply impacted by the war, doing much to shake faith in Syaran's Warden dominated government and called into question many of the nationalist and revolutionary aspects of the Warden Way.

Syaran culture was affected in many ways. In the immediate aftermath of the war dozens of memoirs and stories were published in Syaran literature, combined with a spike in war-related films, songs, and poetry.

The Ruvelkan victory in the Zemplen War helped to establish the Grand Principality as a capable military power under proper leadership, contrasting heavily with the Ruvelkan performance during the Imerti Conflict. Chancellor Molnár’s Cooperative Commonwealth Party (and by extension the greater political alliance of which it was a part, the Progressive Alliance) dominated the nation’s federal elections in 2010. The war validated the Ministry of Defenses long-term strategy of defense-in-depth and restored the populace’s confidence in its military commanders.