Hugo's War

Hugo's War
Date 12 May 1928 - Ongoing Location Orun Redisus Ayeli
Belligerents
Pro-Hugo Coalition Mutul Hugoist forces South Ayeli Supported by: Charnea Ankat Tikal	International Coalition Belfras Orun Redisus Gristol-Serkonos Latium North Ayeli Supported by: Yisrael
Strength
526,800 100,000+ Charnea 10,000 10,000 5,000 2,400	1,141,850 592,000 350,000 331,120 <1,000
Casualties and losses
Mutul 488 Killed 1,345 Wounded 95 Captured or missing South Ayeli 1,203 Killed 3,610 Wounded 1,000+ Captured or missing	Belfras 396 Killed 519 Wounded 80 Captured or missing Gristol-Serkonos 204 Killed 800 Wounded 15 Captured or missing Orun Redisus 6,725 Killed 3,225 Wounded 13,450 Captured or missing
As of 7th of January 2025

Hugo's War is an ongoing military conflict involving primarily the Mutul against Orun Redisus, supported by an international coalition led by Belfras and including Gristol-Serkonos, Latium, and North Ayeli. It began in December 2024 when the Mutul escalated the diplomatic crisis with Orun Redisus' monarchy by launching a large scale invasion of the country and began occupying vast sways of territory in support of Prince Hugo of Ivorea bid for the throne. The war further escalated when the Federation of Belfras declared war to the Mutul in the hours following the invasion, quickly joined by Gristol-Serkonos and Latium. All three countries then launched a joint military invasion of Ayeli to save the North Ayeli regime which, during the previous Campaign of 2023, had collapsed until it could only hold on to territories protected by the Belfrasian Army. The island was rapidly put into strategic encirclement. The scale of the war and its intensity makes it the largest conflict in both Norumbia and Oxidentale since the Belfro-Mutulese War of 1928, earning the monicker of Third Belfro-Mutulese War or Belfro-Mutulese War of 2025.

Background

Cavalier Coup

On August 26th 2024, the government of Orun Redisus announced that a coup d'état was foiled by the Silver Knights of the Royal Palace. The king's older brother, Hugo of Ivorea, and a number of other disgruntled nobles, were immediately accused of leading the conspiracy with the aim to overthrow Indóre II of Orun Redisus. While some of the suspected conspirators were arrested, Prince Hugo managed to flee the country and find refuge in the Mutul where he obtained the K'uhul Ajaw protection as the Divine Throne publicly raised questions about the veracity of the official story surrounding the event, the Mutulese press accusing Indóre II and his cousin, Grand Duke Ixdira Ivorea, of running a defamation campaign against Hugo and referring to the arrestations as "purges" within the military, government, and administration of Orun Redisus.

The Coup take its name from the 12th Cavalry Platoon which, under the young lord Alarc Melendos leadership, spearheaded the coup attempt as well as the high number of cavalry officers who were part of the conspiracy.

2024 Ayeli Crisis

The Josanek, or foreign minister, of the Mutul, Ahin Chan Toktan, visited South Ayeli on the 7th of December 2024. It was the first direct visit of a Bakab ranked Mutulese official since the beginning of the civil war. In the following reunion and press conference, he reaffirmed the Mutul commitment to the State of Ayeli which had reconquered about 90% of the island, and that negotiation with Belfras were ongoing with the goal to remove the last Belfrasians troops present on the island that had prevented the fall of North Ayeli capital Uyatlaudali. The Mutuleses and Ayelians officials notably referred to plans for an Oceanic Enclosure in the South Kayamuca: a joint international shared defense area that would allow free trade, safe passage, and territorial safety between Tikal, Ayeli, and the Mutul. Military and naval exercices were also publicly announced with international observers suspecting those movements to be a preleminary to a direct Mutulese intervention on the island.

The Oceanic Enclosure project was immediately denounced by Belfras as "unacceptable aggression" and announced plans for a high-profile freedom of navigation operation through the waters which they considered had been claimed by the Divine Throne, the latter emiting an official statement refuting the accusation and reasserted that the Oceanic Enclosure was a defense project that did not affect international water treaties and proposed a resolution of the misunderstanding through the Common Congress of Oxidentale.

On December 08, Gristol-Serkonos National Office of Defence made the surprise announcement that the Royal Gristo-Serkonan Navy was deploying units in Southern Belfras: an initial task force of 8,098 naval personnel and 2,500 marines to be stationed in NS Aegaeon and Fort Bellatoris. Naval assets included the newly commissioned carrier RGSS Mammut and guided missile cruisers RGSS Eidsvold and RGSS Nidaros. A further 4,200 civilian personnel were to make up the civilian support element. Elements from Gristo-Serkonan Army's 1st Army Division and Royal Gristo-Serkonan Air Force's 2nd Air Division added a further 10,000 army personnel and 6,000 air force personnel. Furthermore, the frigates RGSS Leopard and RGSS Argonaut were sent to take part in the Belfrasian's freedom of navigation operation.

Orun National Army

In the wake of the Cavalier Coup, pro-Hugo partisans from within the army regrouped and met up with Orun nationalists and Chieftains representatives on the southern reaches of Orun. They formed a new organisation, called the Orun National Army in opposition to the Orun Royal Army. They openly proclaimed their support to Prince Hugo of Ivorea and, more importantly, to his promised program of social and economic reforms aimed at industrialising and revitalizing the state of Orun which had fallen economically and demographically behind the island of Redisus.

Throughout the month of december, the ONA led a campaign of drone attacks, surprise attacks, and ambushes against the Royal Quasitores, the military police forces of Orun Redisus and the main symbol of royal authority in Orun.