Namorese presidential election, 2015: Difference between revisions
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| Turnout | 67.25%, ( 4.01%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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File:Election2378map.png Election results by prefecture | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Namorese presidential election of 2015 was held on March 21, 2015 to elect the 19th-term President-General and Vice President of the People's Republic of Namor. It coincided with the legislative election.
The incumbent, Fu Wen, was not eligible to participate in this election, as according to the Namorese Constitution he was not allowed to seek a third consecutive five-year term. The Namorese media frequently covered this election as it would determine whether the New Democrats retain control of the government.
Three candidates had support from at least 1% of voters according to successive polls: Huan An, a CenCo deputy running for the New Democrats; Antelope Shohai, a CenCo deputy running for the Popular Front, a coalition of left-wing parties; and Kuo Zhang, chairman of the People's First Coalition. Minor candidates who failed to meet the 1% threshold included Namorese Revolutionary Liberationist Movement leader Bao Ding, Communist Party of Namor leader He Pingtao and Liberty Party of Namor leader Fen Tzi.
In the months leading up to the election, Antelope Shohai consistently led polls with support from 40-50% of voters. This led many to believe that an Antelope victory was a foregone conclusion. Huan had initially been in second place before he was eclipsed by Kuo Zhang. Huan would eventually surpass Kuo by a narrow margin in polls taken over a week ahead of Election Day.
Antelope won the election with 59.5% of the popular vote (141,955,052 votes), scoring a landslide victory unseen since the 2005 election. Antelope's victory marks the first time in 30 years a Liberationist President-General was elected to office and the first time in Namorese history that the Liberationists seized power by election. Huan performed poorly with only 22.3% of the vote (53,203,322 votes), only 5.1% ahead of Kuo, who won 17.2% of the vote (41,035,746 votes). This is by far Kuo's best performance in any presidential election; he had won nearly 5% of the vote in 2010.
Background
Since 1970, every President-General and Vice President-General of Namor has been elected by direct popular vote. Additional Article Four of the Namorese Constitution requires the winning candidate to receive over 40% of the popular vote and lead by a margin of over 5%. A second round must be held if no candidate meets those requirements.
Fu Wen was elected in 2005 as the first New Democratic President-General in the history of the PRN, amid widespread dissatisfaction with the Democratic Socialist government of Kaitlyn Kan. At the same time, both the Democratic Socialists and Liberationists suffered tremendous losses in the coinciding election for Central Council.
The election was referred to by political commentators as the "Revolution of 2005" due to its significance; besides bringing the New Democrats to power, it officially ended the party system where the Democratic Socialists and Liberationists were seen as the country's two main competing parties. For the first time in history, both the Liberationists and D emSocs became opposition parties and were forced to subside their rivalry to confront the ruling New Democrats. Consequently, many began to see the two parties as "frenemies" vying to retake control of the government. This became evident in the 2010 presidential election, when the Democratic Socialists endorsed Liberationist nominee Antelope Shohai (albeit reluctantly) in order to form a bulwark against Fu Wen. However, Fu Wen won a majority of the popular vote and a second term in office.
Timeline
| Date | Events | |||||||||||||
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| Primaries | ||||||||||||||
| November 8 | 1st Popular Front debate held in Po'ai, West Namor and broadcasted by WNTV. | |||||||||||||
| November 29 | New Democratic debate held in Hai Nang, Tuhao and broadcasted by THDB. | |||||||||||||
| December 29 | 2nd Popular Front debate held in Mojing and broadcasted by TFTV. | |||||||||||||
| January 1-4 | Liberationists announce Antelope Shohai as their nominee. | |||||||||||||
| January 5-8 | Democratic Socialists announce Namsa Singho as their nominee. | |||||||||||||
| January 9-11 | Socialists announce Tao James as their nominee. | |||||||||||||
| January 15-18 | New Democrats confirm their presidential and vice presidential nominees. | |||||||||||||
| January 20-23 | Popular Front announces presidential and vice presidential nominees. | |||||||||||||
| Post-primaries | ||||||||||||||
| February 1 | Deadline for presidential candidacy registrations. | |||||||||||||
| February 10 | First presidential debate held in Arra City, Arra and broadcasted by PTH. | |||||||||||||
| March 10 | Second presidential debate held in Sicho, Southern Namor and broadcasted by RCTV. | |||||||||||||
| March 18 | Beginning of election silence. | |||||||||||||
| March 21 | Election Day. | |||||||||||||
Preliminary stage
The preliminary stage is considered to be the first stage of the election season, during which candidates emerge and vie for their party's nomination. It is expected to last until mid-February, when the New Democrats hold their national convention and nominate their candidate. So far, the only candidate confirmed to be running on behalf of his/her party is Kuo Zhang, who was immediately declared the nominee for the People's First Coalition upon announcing his candidacy.
Kickoff
Nantai defector and Socialist CenCo deputy Tao James became the first person to announce his candidacy for President-General on August 5, 2014. He was followed by Tuyet An of the New Democrats, who announced her candidacy on August 11. Upon Tao's entrance into the race, the government of Luziyca announced that it was granting him clemency, revoking his Luziycan citizenship (which Tao had long discarded himself) and allowing him to return to Nantai for 60 days "for business and/or diplomatic reasons." Tao viewed the clemency with skepticism, while in Luziyca the decision to grant Tao clemency stirred controversy.
On August 9, Antelope Shohai called on Namor's left-wing parties to unite behind one candidate, saying "If someone from each party gets nominated and runs, the New Democrats will definitely have a better chance of maintaining control of the Executive House. Since we swore that will not happen next year, we should take all actions necessary to consolidate our votes and form a united front." He added "We're still in the preliminary stage, but what I'll like to see is our party, the DemSocs, the Socialists, even the People's Firsts, convene and decide who should represent us all. Given that we've done this before, it shouldn't be a hard thing to do." Antelope officially entered the race on August 18.
On August 16, People's First leader Kuo Zhang announced his bid for the presidency, choosing the chairman of the Namorese Peitoa Party Chao Se as his running mate. This is the second time Kuo is running for President-General; his campaign headquarters is situated in Peitoa, the PFC's primary support base.
A Tesong poll released August 18 showed that 35% of Namorese support Antelope Shohai, 34% support Tuyet An, 25% support Tao James and 6% support Kuo Zhang.
On August 30, New Democratic deputy Huan An became the fifth candidate to run for President-General, directly challenging Tuyet An whose hold to the New Democratic nomination had been unchallenged for weeks.
Democratic Socialist party leader Namsa Singho announced his candidacy in August 31; he was followed by Socialist leader Gongchan Zhushi in September 1. Namsa refused to support Antelope Shohai as President-General unless Shohai dropped his support for the Nari Pipeline. This led to speculations that the DemSocs would nominate their own candidate and split the leftist vote; however, the DemSocs later moderated their position and allowed members to support the pipeline. Namsa subsequently voiced support for an electoral alliance.
On September 21, sources said that Vice President and potential presidential contender Derrick Lee would not be running for the New Democratic nomination "for now" because he is satisfied with the current list of New Democratic candidates.
Formation of Popular Front
On October 5, the Socialist, Democratic Socialist and Liberationist parties announced that they had successfully formed an electoral alliance - the Popular Front, or PF. The first poll released by the Popular Front showed that Antelope Shohai was ahead of the other Front candidates with 27 percentage points, two percentage points ahead of both Namsa Singho and Tao James.
Nantai referendum proposal and Kenyen Declaration
On October 19, Huan An proposed a territory-wide referendum for Nantai to decide the region's political status. Huan's proposal sparked heated debate domestically - it received lukewarm support from Tuyet An, and opposition from Antelope Shohai and Namsa Singho, both of whom accused Huan of pandering to Luziyca. Tao James refused to clarify his stance on the referendum proposal, reiterating his own plan for reunification instead. That same day, the leaders of Luziyca's major parties (with the exception of Narsete La Via of the NLP) signed the Kenyen Declaration, voicing support for Huan's proposal and pledging to hold a referendum on Nantai's political status. The move was criticized as "unilateral" by the Namorese government, to which the Luziycan parties responded that the declaration "was meant to be vague."
According to a straw poll organized by the Popular Front, PF frontrunner Antelope Shohai would defeat New Democratic frontrunner Huan An in a two-way race. The Liberator reported that the verbal clashes over Nantai contributed to Shohai's strong standing in the poll, saying "Huan left many questions to his referendum proposal unanswered, including how the international community would ensure that Luziyca, working in tandem with Nantai's Namophobes, do not skew such a referendum in their favor." Huan's campaign dismissed the poll, citing the Liberator's pro-Liberationist bias.
New Democratic race
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Unlike the race for the Popular Front nomination, which was widely considered to be more intense, the race for the New Democratic nomination was marked by a comfortable lead for Huan An, who consistently led by a 20-30% margin ahead of Tuyet An.
Many noted that the race between Huan and Tuyet represents the power struggle between two major rival factions in the New Democratic Party - the ruling establishment (represented by Tuyet An) and the libertarian insurgents (represented by Huan An). Huan's lead suggested that the balance of power within the New Democrats had shifted in favor of the libertarians, and there were reports that the establishment was unhappy with the situation. Huan continued to lead after the November 29 New Democratic debate, which some hoped would improve Tuyet's standing in the polls.
The following day on November 30, Esquarileaks revealed that President-General Fu and Vice President Lee had allegedly talked over the phone regarding the New Democratic race. Both expressed disapproval of Huan. The Executive House dismissed the call as "political black propaganda," but nevertheless the leak led to speculations that the New Democrats were embroiled in an intense power struggle.
Neither Tuyet nor Huan's campaign commented on the leaked phone call. According to the Liberator, both candidates were downplaying factionalism in an effort to appear united against a resurgent Namorese left.
Huan An was officially named the New Democratic nominee on January 15, the opening day of the New Democratic Party Convention in Hai Nang. A poll released by the party showed that 70 percent of New Democrats supported Huan as the nominee while 30 percent supported Tuyet.
On January 18, the New Democrats announced former Hoy Phong mayor Gang Yuchin to be the vice presidential nominee. Many observers said Gang's nomination was a move made by the New Democratic establishment to counterbalance the rising popularity of Huan An, but Huan An stated he looks forward to working with Gang in the campaign.
Popular Front race
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In October 24, Gongchan Zhushi announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, calling on supporters to endorse Tao James. Tao thus became the only Socialist Party candidate running for the Front nomination.
The move was widely speculated to have been made in an attempt to challenge Shohai's lead. Combined, Gongchan Zhushi and Tao James had 48 percentage points. Assuming all of Gongchan's supporters switch to Tao, Tao would be ahead of Shohai by 21 percentage points, putting Tao in an easy position to win the Popular Front nomination.
By October 26, polls showed that Tao James was starting to challenge Shohai's position as front-runner, although not all polls determined Tao to be the front-runner. The Mojing Sibo reported a lead for Tao at 40%, followed by Antelope Shohai at 31%. A straw poll conducted by PTH resulted in a clear Tao lead at 50% while Shohai trailed far behind at 30%. But The Liberator's straw poll showed Shohai still leading at 38% while Tao followed closely at 37%. TFTV reported that after Gongchan's withdrawal, Shohai still led at 41% and Tao was last at 22%.
After the November 8 Popular Front debate, Tao was confirmed to be the new front-runner of the Popular Front. According to the Front's latest poll, Tao leads with 45 percentage points, beating Shohai (who has 35 percentage points) by 10 points.
Commentators, starting with Commoner Mandate columnist Kaotzu Pinghan, coined Tao's lead "the T-storm" (Т-фон). There was speculation over how long the lead would last, given the longstanding trend in Namorese politics in which more radical candidates initially fare better in the polls before yielding to more moderate ones. Indeed, the gap between Antelope Shohai and Tao James started to close in most polls starting December.
Following the second Popular Front presidential debate on December 29, some polls showed that Antelope had once again become the front-runner. On January 3, a PTH/Mojing Sibo poll showed Antelope Shohai leading the race with 47 percentage points and Tao James trailing behind by a seven-point margin. Strategist Kao Fang noted that around this time, "it's going to be difficult for him [Tao] to keep the momentum that he has consolidated in the past several months."
The Popular Front Convention opened on January 20. Two days later, the Popular Front announced that Antelope Shohai has 45 percentage points in the latest nationwide poll, more than Tao James (41%) and Namsa Singho (14%). Antelope was declared the Popular Front nominee. Long Jiao-Che, Deputy Secretary-General of the Liberationist Party, was named the vice presidential nominee.
Polling
| Date | Polling Firm | Huan An NDP |
Antelope Shohai PF |
Kuo Zhang PFC |
Undecided | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackout period begins, pre-election polls closed (Mar 18) | ||||||||||||||
| 14 Mar | PTH | 17.4 | 49.9 | 15.9 | 16.8 | |||||||||
| 13 Mar | Mojing Sibo | 18 | 47.6 | 14.4 | 20.0 | |||||||||
| 11 Mar | Tesong | 18.0 | 50.2 | 11.9 | 19.9 | |||||||||
| 2nd post-primary presidential debate (Mar 10) | ||||||||||||||
| 7 Mar | New Democrats | 19.4 | 39.7 | 15.4 | 25.5 | |||||||||
| "Speak Up, Keep Namor Yellow" rally (Mar 6) | ||||||||||||||
| 4 Mar | Mojing Sibo | 13.8 | 44.4 | 15.2 | 26.6 | |||||||||
| 1 Mar | Tesong | 14.1 | 46.7 | 15.2 | 24.0 | |||||||||
| 25 Feb | PTH | 12.8 | 48.6 | 13.1 | 25.5 | |||||||||
| 24 Feb | The Liberator | 9.6 | 52.3 | 19.1 | 19.0 | |||||||||
| 20 Feb | Popular Front | 12.8 | 54.2 | 13 | 20 | |||||||||
| 15 Feb | Tesong | 16.5 | 44.5 | 16.3 | 22.7 | |||||||||
| 13 Feb | Mojing Sibo | 26.2 | 42.3 | 11.6 | 19.9 | |||||||||
| 12 Feb | The Liberator | 10.3 | 53.5 | 17.8 | 18.4 | |||||||||
| 1st post-primary presidential debate (Feb 10) | ||||||||||||||
| 1 Feb | Tesong | 24.4 | 40.4 | 10.2 | 25.0 | |||||||||
| 25 Jan | Mojing Sibo | 30.0 | 40.1 | 9.5 | 20.4 | |||||||||
| 23 Jan | New Democrats | 35.8 | 41.5 | 7.7 | 15 | |||||||||
| 22 Jan | The Liberator | 26.7 | 50.1 | 7.5 | 15.7 | |||||||||
| 21 Jan | PTH | 33.6 | 47.3 | 6.0 | 13.1 | |||||||||
| 20 Jan | Popular Front | 25.0 | 50.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | |||||||||
| Popular Front Convention (20 Jan) | ||||||||||||||
Minor parties and independents
- Baoding.jpg
He Pingtao
Communist Party of Namor
Fen Tzi
Liberty Party of Namor
Debates
In accordance with Namorese election law, the independent agency Namora Sanju (Elections Namor) organizes, administers and sets standards for presidential debates. However, it is not responsible for organizing primary debates; broadcasting networks organize them instead.
According to Namora Sanju regulations, a candidate who qualifies to enter a post-primary debate must be constitutionally eligible. Additionally, the candidate must belong to one of the political parties that have representation in the Central Council or have received at least an average 4% in all reputable polls in the two consecutive months leading up to the debate.
Since the two requirements aren't mutually exclusive, a candidate doesn't have to meet both, making it possible for an independent candidate who has more than 4 percentage points on average in all recent polls, as well as a non-independent candidate (nominated by a party with representation in the CenCo) who has less than 4 percentage points on average in all recent polls, to participate. Analysts believe the latter scenario is more likely because Kuo Zhang, the PFC candidate, belongs to a party that's represented in the Central Council but usually does not have more than 5 percentage points in most polls.
Popular Front primary debate
The Popular Front debate was held on November 8, 2014, in East Po'ai, West Namor, where the Popular Front's inter-party convention would open January 20, 2015. It was broadcasted by West Namor Television (WNTV).
The debate was originally scheduled to happen at the Shi Huan Building, which stands right next to the barrier separating east and west Po'ai, but municipal authorities forced WNTV to move it farther away from the border to the Po'ai Library, citing "security issues." In a joint statement, the three candidates running for the Front nomination expressed their disappointment at the authorities' decision but said they would respect it nonetheless.
Post-debate polls showed Tao James overtaking Antelope Shohai as the Popular Front's new front-runner.
New Democratic primary debate
The New Democratic primary debate was held on November 29 at the Municipal Convention Hall in Hai Nang, Tuhao, where the party's National Convention will also be held later in mid-January. It will be broadcasted by Northeast Television (Truyền Hình Đông Bắc, THDB), Tuhao's regional public broadcaster.
First post-primary presidential debate
The first presidential debate to take place after the primaries occurred at the Municipal Hall of Arra City, Arra, organized by Namora Sanju and broadcasted by PTH, on February 10, 2015.
Second post-primary presidential debate
The second post-primary presidential debate took place in Sicho, Southern Namor, broadcasted by Tungfang Television, on March 10, 2015. It was the last presidential debate organized by Namora Sanju before Election Day.
Media endorsements
Namorese
| The Liberator | Primary endorsement: Antelope Shohai | Post-primary endorsement: Antelope Shohai | ||
| The Commoner Mandate | Primary endorsement: Antelope Shohai | Post-primary endorsement: Huan An | ||
| Primary endorsement: Tuyet An | ||||
| Namor Today | Primary endorsement: Antelope Shohai | Post-primary endorsement: Antelope Shohai | ||
| Laborers' Daily | Primary endorsement: Tao James | Post-primary endorsement: Antelope Shohai | ||
| Mojing Sibo | Primary endorsement: Huan An | Post-primary endorsement: None | ||
| Peitoa Sibo | Primary endorsement: Kuo Zhang | Post-primary endorsement: Kuo Zhang |
International
| The Constitution (Luziycan) | Primary endorsement: Huan An | Post-primary endorsement: Huan An | ||
| République (Aininian) | Primary endorsement: N/A | Post-primary endorsement: Antelope Shohai | ||
| Santiago Reporter (Cortoguayan) | Primary endorsement: Namsa Singho | Post-primary endorsement: None | ||
| Primary endorsement: Tuyet An |
Results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Antelope Shohai
|
 Popular Front
|
141,955,052 | 59.5% | |
| Huan An | File:NDPsymbol.png New Democrats | 53,203,322 | 22.3% | |
| Kuo Zhang | File:PFClogo.png People's Firsts | 41,035,746 | 17.2% | |
| Bao Ding |  Revolutionary Liberationists
|
1,192,900 | 0.5% | |
| Fen Tzi |  Liberty
|
620,307 | 0.26% | |
| He Pingtao | File:CPUSA Logo.svg Communists | 524,875 | 0.22% | |
| Invalid/Blank Votes | 47,715 | 0.02% | ||
| Total | 238,579,917 | 100.0% | ||
Reaction
Domestic
Shortly after Huan An conceded defeat to Antelope Shohai, President-General Fu Wen telephoned Antelope Shohai and congratulated Antelope for his election victory. Fu said he will work with Antelope to ensure a smooth transition in the days leading to Inauguration Day (April 20).
International
feel free to put your own country in here
Katranjiev: Queen Elis congratulated Antelope Shohai, wishing him "the best of luck in administering the country."
Luziyca: Immediately after the election, Secretary of State Alina Stasov congratulated Antelope Shohai on Twitter. The then-Acting President Damir Agapov said "I am glad that Namor chose who they thought to be the best choice for their country. I am looking forward to working with [Antelope], and I wish him the best of luck in his coming term."
- Republic of Nantai chief executive Tam River expressed concern over Antelope's election: "I am concerned that after years of peace in Nantai, after years of stability and increasingly cordial relations, Shohai will pander to the interests of the Namorese, who seek to integrate Nantai into Namor, without considering what we, the Nantainese, want for Nantai...I want reassurance from Shohai that 'the status quo as it stands now' be upheld in regards to Nantai."
- Template:Country data Riro: Riroese President Ling Mon congratulated Antelope for winning the Namorese presidency. Addressing Antelope as "a fellow compatriot and Liberationist," Ling expressed his hopes that Namor and Riro will "work towards reunification." Although a considerable number of Riroese, including Ling himself, had a positive view of Kuo Zhang, many Riroese remained content with the results because they viewed Antelope as a competent President-General who would admit Riro into the People's Republic.