Opinion polling for the 2023 Pacitalian elections

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National elections will be held in the Pacitalian Republic in November and December 2023.

Eligible voters will elect the 715 members of the Constazione Repubblicana, 100 Senators to the Senato Repubblicana, and the country's next Archonate, the head of state. This article details public opinion polling firms' various findings over time; for example, levels of support for political parties, party leader approval ratings, individual support levels for candidates, and public sentiment about the state of the country and the economy.

Parliamentary election polling

Main article: Pacitalian parliamentary elections, 2023
Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link CSDP FDP PDC PSE LMJ PVP LE VdR AR eDem PDU Other[b] MoE[c] Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e] Lead
Centreprise-UCMA[f] October 24, 2023   13 [g] [g]   28 5   2 3 9 39 1 ±3.6 pp 758 Online PDU +11[f]
Strategic Vision October 24, 2023   32 13 20 2 1 2 1 10 2 15 1 1 ±2.5 pp 1,494 IVR CSDP +12
ABM/Capax October 24, 2023   33 8 28 2 1 4 1 6 2 13 1 1 ±1.9 pp 2,600 IVR CSDP +5
UOE[h] October 20, 2023 [1] 10 [g] [g] 33   [i] 31 3 3 13   7 ±3.1 pp 960 IVR PSE +2[h]
UOE October 20, 2023 [1] 29 13 22 2 1 3 1 7 2 17 1 2 ±2.1 pp 2,186 IVR CSDP +7
Centreprise October 16, 2023 [1] 31 14 23 2 1 3 1 5 2 16 1 1 ±2.1 pp 2,250 Online CSDP +8
Foro Civile-UdM October 14, 2023   37 15 20 1 1 3 1 4 1 15 1 1 ±1.5 pp 4,130 Mixed online and IVR[j] CSDP +17
Strategic Vision October 10, 2023   35 17 21 2 1 3 1 5 1 12 1 1 ±2.5 pp 1,494 IVR CSDP +14
ABM/Capax October 10, 2023   36 18 18 2 1 4 1 4 1 13 1 1 ±1.9 pp 2,600 IVR CSDP +18
UOE[h] October 6, 2023   12 [g] [g] 35   [i] 30 4 2 11   6 ±3.1 pp 960 IVR PSE +5[h]
Centreprise October 3, 2023   40 16 18 2 1 3 1 6 1 10 1 1 ±2.1 pp 2,250 Online CSDP +22
Centreprise-UCMA[f] October 3, 2023   12 [g] [g]   31 7   2 1 5 40 2 ±3.6 pp 758 Online PDU +9[f]
ABM/Capax September 29, 2023   33 21 20 2 1 4 1 5 1 9 2 1 ±1.9 pp 2,600 IVR CSDP +12
Strategic Vision September 29, 2023   33 17 22 1 1 4 1 6 1 12 1 1 ±2.5 pp 1,480 IVR CSDP +11
Foro Civile-UdM September 29, 2023   36 20 18 2 1 3 1 5 1 11 1 1 ±1.5 pp 4,130 Mixed online and IVR[j] CSDP +16
Centreprise September 22, 2023   39 22 16 2 1 2 1 4   10 2 1 ±2.1 pp 2,250 Online CSDP +17
ABM/Capax September 19, 2023 [2] 38 23 19 2 1 2 1 2 1 8 2 1 ±1.9 pp 2,600 IVR CSDP +15

Archonal election polling

Main article: Pacitalian archonal election, 2023

First round

Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Russo Bosa Bamidele Ferrache Osman Arancella MoE[c] Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e] Lead
Strategic Vision October 24, 2023   26 11 34 2 7 20 ±2.5 pp 1,448 IVR Bamidele +8
ABM/Capax October 24, 2023   34 10 37 2 6 11 ±1.9 pp 2,595 IVR Bamidele +3
UOE October 20, 2023   30 9 35 2 5 19 ±2.1 pp 2,195 IVR Bamidele +5
Foro Civile-UdM October 14, 2023   29 11 35 2 4 19 ±1.5 pp 4,124 Mixed online and IVR[j] Bamidele +6
ABM/Capax October 10, 2023   31 11 35 2 5 16 ±1.9 pp 2,600 IVR Bamidele +4
Centreprise October 3, 2023   34 9 36 3 5 13 ±2.1 pp 2,250 Online Bamidele +3
Strategic Vision September 29, 2023   30 11 36 2 7 14 ±2.5 pp 1,480 IVR Bamidele +6
Foro Civile-UdM September 29, 2023   28 14 32 5 7 14 ±1.5 pp 4,124 Mixed online and IVR[j] Bamidele +4
Centreprise September 22, 2023   26 12 37 3 4 18 ±2.1 pp 2,250 Online Bamidele +11
ABM/Capax September 19, 2023 [2] 29 15 34 5 5 12 ±1.9 pp 2,600 IVR Bamidele +5
Strategic Vision September 14, 2023   27 14 36 6 4 13 ±2.4 pp 1,645 IVR Bamidele +9

Head-to-head

Bamidele vs. Russo

Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Bamidele Russo
Strategic Vision October 24, 2023   55 45
ABM/Capax October 24, 2023   52 48
Foro Civile-UdM October 14, 2023   53 47
ABM/Capax October 10, 2023   53 47
Centreprise October 3, 2023   51 49
Strategic Vision September 29, 2023   52 48

Bosa vs. Russo

Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Bosa Russo
Foro Civile-UdM October 14, 2023   43 57
ABM/Capax October 10, 2023   41 59
Centreprise October 3, 2023   40 60
Strategic Vision September 29, 2023   45 55

Arancella vs. Bamidele

Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Arancella Bamidele
Strategic Vision October 24, 2023   46 54
ABM/Capax October 24, 2023   47 53
Foro Civile-UdM October 14, 2023   46 54
ABM/Capax October 10, 2023   45 55
Centreprise October 3, 2023   47 53
Strategic Vision September 29, 2023   46 54

Arancella vs. Russo

Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Arancella Russo
Strategic Vision October 24, 2023   50 50
ABM/Capax October 24, 2023   48 52
Foro Civile-UdM October 14, 2023   49 51
ABM/Capax October 10, 2023   44 56
Centreprise October 3, 2023   36 64
Strategic Vision September 29, 2023   43 57

Russo vs. Osman

Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Russo Osman
ABM/Capax October 10, 2023   93 7
Centreprise October 3, 2023   89 11

Other polling

Party leader approvals

National parties

Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Moya de Brincat Demarco Bardolin Demasso Moretti Gallo MoE[c] Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e]
Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg
ABM/Capax October 10, 2023   55 30 15 39 44 17 46 33 21 40 31 29 40 36 14 46 25 29 ±1.9 pp 2,600 IVR
ABM/Capax September 29, 2023   56 29 15 40 40 20 48 33 19 40 27 33 36 37 17 21 16 63 ±1.9 pp 2,600 IVR
Centreprise September 22, 2023   55 32 13 39 42 19 42 33 25 35 28 37 40 37 13 n/a ±2.3 pp 1,748 Online

Regional parties

Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Capderoig Salvador Gaudí i Piqué Gómez MoE[c] Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e]
Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg Symbol thumbs up green.png Thumbs down red.svg Question Mark Solid Black.svg
ABM/Capax[k] October 10, 2023   45 35 20 45 37 18 41 30 19 57 18 25 ±4.4 pp 530 IVR
Centreprise[k] September 22, 2023   43 39 18 40 45 15 42 27 31 60 16 24 ±4.4 pp 502 Online

Important election issues

Other ratings of politicians

State of the nation

Polling firm Last date
of polling[a] 		Link Positive Negative Neutral MoE[c] Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e]
Foro Civile-UdM September 29, 2023     ±1.5pp 4,130 Mixed online and IVR[j]
The country is on the (right track/wrong track)... 52 27 21  
The economy is on the (right track/wrong track)... 56 15 29  

References

Notes
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above). In the parliamentary polling table, parties are organized by largest to smallest parliamentary assembly, then by poll popularity where possible. In the archonal poll table, candidates are organized based on how their party's candidate placed in the 2017 election.
  2. ↑ Support for other parties may include the eDemocrats, Defence of the Republic, PDU, the Radical Anticapitalists, the Empordian Greens, or others, depending on the poll.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Conducted only in Marquería.
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 Under a cooperation agreement signed in July 2023, the Federation of Progressive Democrats and the Christian Democrats are not running electorate candidates or publishing a party list in Empordia or Marquería, in an attempt to consolidate the centre-right vote behind regional liberal or conservative counterparts, the Llíga Empordán and Podemos-Derecha Unida. Accordingly, the FPD and Christian Democrats are not presented as an option for survey respondents in polls conducted in these regions.
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 Conducted only in Alt-Empordà and Baix-Empordà.
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 The Pacitalian Green Party does not run candidates or publish a party list in Empordia due to the presence of the regional Empordian Greens. Accordingly, even though the two organizations are loosely affiliated, the national party is not presented as an option for survey respondents in polls conducted in Empordia.
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 Some pollsters use a combination of different methods of voter contact in an attempt to improve accuracy and allow for larger sample sizes.
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 As part of its overall national survey of likely voters, pollsters have a separate regional breakout to poll relevant voters on parties, leaders, candidates and issues that are regionally specific. This may affect the margin of error and the accuracy of results, due to the smaller sample cohort, when compared against the wider poll.
References
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 PBC News (2023-10-21). "PSDC polling lower ahead of campaign launch". Retrieved 2023-10-21.
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 PBC News (2023-09-22). "eDemocrats elect Moretti Gallo as spokesperson". Retrieved 2023-09-24.
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