Mabifia food crisis (2019-present)
The Mabifia food crisis is an ongoing food security crisis in Mabifia, which has primarily affected the regions of the Boual ka Bifie, Central Green Belt and major urban centres such as Ouagedji and Kangesare. The crisis has varied in its intensity across the country and at different stages, but the overall trend of greater food insecurity since 2019 has been observed using many different metrics. Numerous factors have contributed to the start and continuation of the crisis, such as desertification, poor rainfall which has reached drought levels in certain municipalities, demographic pressure from a rapidly growing and young population, urbanisation which has outpaced supply of food to urban areas, and internal unrest in conflicts in the Boual ka Bifie and Makania. Many of the problems have seen to have been compounded by the political situation in the country, with corruption an ever-present element and Mahmadou Jolleh Bande's government focused on large-scale infrastructure projects which have taken much of the country's budget. The crisis has led to an increased role played by humanitarian aid in food supply, bringing risks to future sustainability of food production in Mabifia.
History
Food security has always been a major area of concern for Mabifia, as much of the country's north is dominated by savannah and desert biomes which are not condusive to agriculture. Much of the northern population is reliant on pastoralism, which has been a response to the irregular weather conditions of the Boual ka Bifie, while the Central Green Belt relies on sedentary cultivation. In the precolonial era, relations between herders and farmers were governed by customary agreements which limited conflict. However, the arrival of Toubacterie introduced northern ideas of private property and ownership of land which had not previously existed. Headmen from the Central Green Belt and southern Mabifia now possessed the complete right to their lands and excluded pastoralists. Rising populations, caused by the introduction of modern medicine and other significant urban improvements, also created a need for more reliable agricultural production. These changes cut many boualic peoples off from their traditional means of subsistence, resulting in a famine in 1987.
The colonial administration did not prioritise the agricultural question. Large swathes of fertile land were bought up by white settlers, to be used to cultivate cash crops such as coffee. This led to food insecurity even in areas which had previously been highly self-sufficient. However, the Gaullicans also introduced new farming practices and technologies which allowed Mabifian farmers to increase their yields. The socialist Mabifian Democratic Republic, which won its independence from Estmere in 1943, opted to nationalise these estates and focus on collective farming as a means of assuring food supplies. While this was initially destructive, the increase in farmed lands would eventually increase agricultural production. These collective farms were highly inefficient and struggled to meet the demands of a growing population, which was one of the major sources of unrest which eventually started the Second Mabifian Civil War.
The second civil war destroyed much of the agricultural capability of the nation, which caused several localised famines. The international community stepped in, with a Community of Nations mission providing food aid to large sectors of the population. The destruction and sale of collective farms led to a return to subsistence farming, which is the largest occupation in Mabifia and source of the vast majority of the country's food. This reliance on local economies and smallholders has left the Mabifian economy vulnerable, especially in regions such as Makania where supply chains are threatened by violence.
Causes
Ecological
Ecological forcings have played a key role in the Mabifia food crisis. Between 2018 and 2020, Mabifia recorded record lows for rainfall in the Boual ka Bifie and Central Green Belt. This decreased rain had a major effect on agricultural yields, as many crops were unable to cope with the dry spells and died. Farmers often harvested their crops prematurely, which diminished their production. Soils dried, which further damaged their agricutural usefulness. In desperation, many farmers overexploited groundwater reserves, which led to subsidence and environmental damage. Though the conditions did not reach those of a drought in the Central Green Belt the mountains of this region are a major watershed for river systems, leading to issues downstream.
A major factor which has impacted upon the precarious ecological situation has been the process of desertification. Climate change has led to increased aridity in many historically dry areas, leaving them at risk of desertification. The increased intensification of agriculture, particularly the expansion of cash crop cultivation encouraged by the Global Institute for Fiscal Affairs as part of a loan, compounded this risk and led to the loss of large tracts of land. The droughts of 2018 led to a feeling of desperation among those most at risk of desertification, and many attemped to grow more crops to protect their livelihoods. On the Boual, traditional watering holes had their vegetation stripped and replaced with short-rooted foodstuff crops. This in turn accelerated desertification, wiping out much of the crops and further pressuring food supplies. Due to the interconnected nature of the crisis, many of these effects have in turn had follow-on consequences such as creating climate refugees who have pressured urban economies.