2020 Garamburan presidential election
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147 members of the National Assembly 74 districts needed to win | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2020 Garamburan presidential election is a presidential election scheduled for July 31, 2020, in the Republic of Garambura. The elections will elect the new President of Garambura by district-based voting, and were called following the resignation of Muzukuru Chiyangwa on March 4 following a financial scandal within his party. The 2020 elections will be the 12th quadrennial election held in Garambura, and is the first time a snap election has been called in the country's history. Five of six candidates have declared for the election on March 4, along with a series of independents, the Garamburan National Party followed suit on March 5, declaring current Vice President Zivai Mushohwe as their candidate.
Candidates began launching their campaigns as far back as 2018 for the scheduled election in 2021, these campaigns have since increased in frequency due to the election's rescheduling. The Garamburan National Party will be seeking their seventh President and the continuation of their dominant electoral record, having won every election since 1969. Other parties, in particular the left-wing PSG-SGIO coalition, will be looking to secure the presidency for the first time in their histories.
Background
The 2020 election is the first called snap election in Garambura's history following the resignation of Muzukuru Chiyangwa on March 4, the election was announced officially on March 5 and most candidates were announced by the fifth. Article 4 of the Garamburan constitution states that elections will be held every five years, meaning the succeeding election to 2020 is scheduled to take place in 2025, should no snap elections be called during that period. Presidential nominees must be fluent in Gaullican and have resided in the country for at least five years. Unlike many other countries, there is no age limit on presidential candidacy. Tapfuma Mkondo has been the country's youngest president, taking office aged 42 in 1984. There is also no limit on the number of terms a president may serve, the source of much debate throughout the 2010s on amending the constitution.
Polls and outlets have predicted the 2020 election to be one of the closest in Garambura's history. Due to the nature at which Chiyangwa's presidency concluded, the Garamburan National Party is expected to take a hit in the votes, which could end its 50-year dominance period within the country. The left-wing coalition of the Social Party and GSWI will look to enter government for the first time, a pivotal moment, should it occur, in the country's political history, due to its staunchly right-wing, neo-liberal history in Bahia.
The white demographic of Garambura is expected to be crucial in the upcoming election. Representing around 18% of the total electorate and some 30% of the electorate of Mambiza, the white demographic, particularly among those over 30, have historically been one of the Garamburan National Party's strongest electoral bases. The Social Party are looking to sway the black vote in Mambiza towards themselves, with black voters in Mambiza often voting PSG or SGIO in more extreme circumstances for the past 35 years, since the exit of Takakunda Kuda Kani from the presidency. An emerging 16-to-30 year old demographic is also expected to bolster the votes of the left-wing parties. The Forum for Change will also look to pounce on the dissuaded right-wing voters of the Garamburan National Party to expand their political presence within the country. The party, led by Mbira Masunda of New Mina, has spent the better part of its existence providing confidence and supply for the Garamburan National Party, and have only entered government once with the election of Chisi Ndlovu's 2009 coalition government, before being ousted from government again with Chiyangwa's 2014 election.
Opinion polling
Ethnic trends
Geographical trends
Mambiza
District predictions
| 2020 Election Predictions | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Previous result (2017) |
Predictions |
| The Garamburan | ||
| Independent | ||
| Chehoko | PNG +10.5 | PNG |
| Jecha | PSG +3.4 | |
| Mabuva | PNG +7.6 | |
| Makado | PNG +11.5 | |
| Mapedza | PNG +4.3 | |
| Matule | PSG +9.4 | |
| Mavairi | PNG +16.4 | |
| Mpilo | PSG +7.6 | |
| Mufahore | PNG +17.0 | |
| Mukutukutu | IND +2.3 | |
| Nenyunka | PNG +6.5 | |
| Rambanapasi | IND +1.9 | |
| Rashamira | PNG +3.1 | |
| Rutenga | PNG +0.4 | |
| Sanangura | PSG +7.1 | |
| Shagari | PNG +6.3 | |
| Shoteli | PNG +5.6 | |
| Suswe | PNG +4.0 | |
| Tavuya | PSG +10.3 | |
| Tshakabanda | PNG +7.9 | |
| Kugura | ||
| Chikutuva | PNG +11.3 | |
| Kuda Kani | PNG +14.0 | |
| Nord | PNG +13.5 | |
| Sud | PNG +21.3 | |
| Makumba | ||
| Chinoda | PNG +2.1 | |
| Emafengwini | PSG +4.3 | |
| Ganga | PNG +3.1 | |
| Hlangano | PNG +2.5 | |
| Masikote | PSG +6.6 | |
| Matombomaviri | PSG +7.0 | |
| Muchinapo | PSG +1.3 | |
| Mungesi | PSG +4.4 | |
| Mupfudze | PNG +5.0 | |
| Ngezi | PNG +0.9 | |
| Somquibe | PNG +1.0 | |
| Tokura | PSG +3.3 | |
| Mambiza | ||
| Amou | PSG +0.5 | |
| Arguillon | PNG +15.4 | |
| Armaillé | PNG +14.3 | |
| Aubure | PNG +9.3 | |
| Aujan | PNG +10.3 | |
| Aurimont | PNG +9.7 | |
| Butabubili | PSG +3.9 | |
| Chalandray | PNG +29.4 | PNG |
| Charumbira | PSG +9.4 | |
| Chauruka | PSG +8.0 | |
| Chebundo | PSG +11.7 | |
| Chidonitofaraseyi | PSG +1.4 | |
| Chilhac | PNG +21.3 | |
| Chilimanzi | PSG +4.7 | |
| Chimhawu | PSG +5.1 | |
| Chipungowe | PNG +3.6 | |
| Chitofa | PSG +2.2 | |
| Chivhu | PNG +3.3 | |
| Chizema | PNG +7.8 | |
| Clavies | PSG +0.3 | |
| Cossonnais | PNG +33.2 | |
| Dzivakwi | PNG +17.9 | |
| Esquay | PNG +20.1 | |
| Forcili | PNG +22.1 | |
| Franay | PNG +19.5 | |
| Gambaiseuil | SGIO +7.0 | SGIO |
| Gare d'Hourege | PNG +2.7 | |
| Gare de Amsalu | PNG +1.7 | |
| Gulakibili | PNG +5.7 | |
| Gwanda | PNG +8.9 | |
| Hagetaubin | PNG +11.4 | |
| Houetteville | PNG +14.7 | |
| Ingezi | PSG +19.4 | |
| Izé | PNG +19.8 | |
| Jera | PSG +11.4 | |
| Jongieux | PNG +3.5 | |
| Labey | PNG +6.3 | |
| Lauban | PNG +9.9 | |
| Levet | PNG +8.7 | |
| Lovette | PNG +10.1 | |
| Luhonja | PSG +2.3 | |
| Mabuze | PSG +10.3 | |
| Machakadze | PSG +3.0 | |
| Madya | PNG +4.5 | |
| Maimbeville | PNG +20.2 | |
| Makufa | PSG +1.4 | |
| Maranami | PNG +3.7 | |
| Mataga | PSG +2.9 | |
| Mathenay | PNG +7.1 | |
| Mbambo | PSG +3.7 | |
| Mowonema | PSG +5.1 | |
| Musonza | PSG +4.2 | |
| Mutasa Village | SGIO +3.2 | |
| Mzilikazi | MUB +2.8 | PSG |
| Ndirazepatswa | PNG +0.5 | |
| Nehonde | SGIO +1.9 | |
| Ntawha | PSG +10.8 | PSG |
| Nyamadzavo | PSG +1.8 | |
| Nyamwanga | PSG +7.1 | |
| Pelela | PNG +3.1 | |
| Place de la Sougoulie | PNG +8.7 | |
| Poire | PNG +15.5 | |
| Rambakudzihwa | PSG +4.0 | |
| Raucoules | PNG +1.4 | |
| Sahlupeka | PSG +2.6 | |
| Salankomo | PSG +4.3 | |
| Sipepa | PSG +9.8 | |
| Takarindwa | PSG +1.8 | |
| Trente-Avril | PNG +0.9 | |
| Tsvangirayi | PNG +3.6 | |
| Urayai | MUB +3.3 | |
| Valluy | PNG +11.9 | |
| Vanhukwavo | PSG +3.7 | |
| Vauxbons | PNG +29.4 | |
| Villefavard | PNG +27.6 | |
| Villemenant | PNG +30.1 | |
| Villevielle | PNG +22.4 | |
| Vincelles | PNG +17.3 | |
| Zhangira | PSG +1.0 | |
| Maware | ||
| Kwa-Nolokoza | PSG +11.3 | |
| Lusulu Village | FC +2.9 | |
| Ngavangava | PSG +14.4 | |
| Sanengeta | PSG +3.6 | |
| Mbiza | ||
| Mashayamambe | PNG +7.6 | |
| Mpilo | PNG +8.3 | |
| Nkarakati | PNG +5.6 | |
| Vulashaba | PNG +4.0 | |
| Mutimukuru | ||
| Avoca | SGIO +10.3 | |
| Kandana | SGIO +11.3 | |
| Lorelei | PNG +2.3 | |
| Luhotswa | SGIO +9.5 | |
| Mademauli | MUB +1.4 | |
| Mangura | MUB +0.7 | |
| Mateverere | PNG +1.0 | |
| Mpotedzi | SGIO +6.7 | |
| Npuma | FC +0.2 | |
| Pumula | PSG +1.8 | |
| Tsaurai | SGIO +8.1 | |
| Zunde | PNG +0.9 | |
| New Mina | ||
| Capitol | FC +4.4 | FC |
| Centrale | PNG +3.4 | |
| Djedet | SGIO +22.1 | |
| Kambou | PM +5.7 | PM |
| veRwizi | MUB +0.3 | |
| Tawira | ||
| Mangoro | PSG +1.7 | |
| Manyanda | FC +1.3 | |
| Mapaniwenyama | PNG +6.8 | |
| Mashake | FC +2.0 | |
| Semawuru | PNG +10.3 | |
| Susmani | PNG +4.8 | |
| Tsetana | PNG +7.1 | |
- ↑ "Candidate Summary: Nakai Mumbengegwi, The Garamburan, 6 March 2020, Retrieved 6 March 2020.