Ethnic voting in Belhavia

Ethnic voting in Belhavia is a sociopolitical phenomenon that affects some elections in Belhavia, depending on the location, time, political issues, and candidate personalities. Ethnic voting is sometimes based solely along ethnic or religious lines, however, in the Empire, such voting habits are usually due to the dual effects of ethnoreligious identities.

Ethnic and religious groups form voting blocs, and while some can be over single issue, most cohesive and unified ethnic voting phenomena is predictable and have become part of the major Belhavian political parties' political coalitions. Elections in Dakos, itself known as the most ethnically-segregated city in Belhavia, is notorious for large-scale ethnic voting in local politics.

Anikatians

Anikatian-Belhavians make up about 3.8% of the population and are split into two camps: those that lived or immigrated to Belhavia's Far East colonies in search of work and are generally racially Asian, poorer, less-educated, and urban versus late-20th century immigrants who left because of the Communist revolution or other reasons who are generally white Anglo-Anikatians, wealthier, well-educated, and suburban.

The first group lives primarily in New Shelvoy, the poorer parts of Provisa and Dakos, and the Ross Archipelagos. They are strong stalwarts of the Liberal Democrats and form a crucial part of its voting coalition wherever they live. A smaller subset of these voters, especially in rural areas or among small businessmen, are more right-wing and tend to lean Tory. They are often swing voters.

The second group used to be a strong part of the Tories' ethnic coalition in the 1980s and 1990s, but the rise of moderate Lib Dem President Garret Holleran in the mid-1990s broke their loyalty to the Conservatives and since the 1992 election, they have become a swing bloc, though they have been trending Liberal Democrat well into the early 2000s.

Belfrasians

This ethnic minority makes up a bare 0.36% of Belhavian's citizenry, and has thoroughly assimilated into Imperial society to such an extent that it is controversial to label Belhavians of ethnic Belfrasian heritage as 'ethnic voters.' Still, a 5,000-voter poll conducted by the Center for Election Analysis in the 2012 presidential election among ethnic Belfrasian voters suggested that the population split 43% Tory, 37.5% Lib Dem, 17% Libertarian, and 2.5% Other in that race. Some institutions, such as the Belfrasian-Belhavian Royalist Society, known for its conservative politics, suggest this ethnic bloc is up for grabs but with a slight rightward lean.

Eaglelanders

Like the ethnic Alleghanians, Eaglelander-Belhavians are one of the most conservative ethnic blocs in Belhavia, and split their votes between the Conservatives and Libertarians, though younger members of this demographic have begun to vote Lib Dem. Ethnic Eaglelanders make up about 0.5% of the population, and are located primarily in ethnic enclave-neighborhoods in Provisa and Dakos, with some smaller communities in the Ross Archipelagos and New Shelvoy.

Recent elections have highlighted the growing generational divide in this ethnic bloc: a 2014 exit poll showed that Eaglelanders older than age 35 voted more than 85% for the Tories or Libertarians, while a plurality of younger Eaglelanders aged 18 - 35 voted 47% for the Lib Dems, with the remaining 53% split between the two rightist parties.

Emmerians

Ethnic Emmerians - white and Persian/Arabic - are the second-largest ethnic minority in Belhavia, pegged at 6% of the population. They are dispersed across the north of Belhavia, and only some ethnic enclaves of religious Arab Emmerians congregate together. The observant Muslim and nonwhite Emmerians tend to be strongly socially conservative and vote Tory; the white and Christian Emmerians lean for the Libertarians.

More younger, secular Emmerian-Belhavians - especially if they travel abroad fully or partially for college or other higher education - vote at higher rates for the Lib Dems.

Rodarians

Rodarian-Belhavians, moreso than any other ethnic minority, vote as a ethnic bloc for one party or the other. This has weakened in recent decades as party and ideological loyalties have seeped into ethnic Rodarians as they assimilate more and more into Belhavian society, but can still be a broad, group-wide phenomenon. When the first Rodarian immigrants arrived in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, they tended to vote for the pro-business and pro-immigration Federalist Party. After Galarian's fall, they en mass switched to the ascendant Liberal Democrats. However, the rise of the anti-religion New Left under Lib Dem President Vern Callan in the late 1960s and early 1970s sparked the Rodar-Belhavian Crisis of 1970-1, when ethnic Rodarians switched to the Tories en mass in reaction to the governing Lib Dems.

Following the rise of Rodarion as a possible geopolitical foe when PECA and its successor organization, the RCO, emerged, Rodarian voters began to shift to the Lib Dems as the Tories became more anti-Rodarion. An exit poll in 2000 showed that ethnic Rodarian voters supported the Tories by a decisive 73% - 26% - 1% margin (Lib Dem and Libertarians, respectively). A mere two years later, in the 2002 midterms, exit polls suggested that that support had flip-flopped, with Rodarian-Belhavians voting 69% Lib Dem to the Tories' 28% and Libertarians' 3%. In between, in 2001, was the formation of PECA, which brought a hardline response by most Conservative politicians against Rodarion for taking geopolitical steps against Free Pardes and the CDI.

This continued until 2008, when then-Tory nominee and Imperial Senator Eli Goldman made a concerted effort to win ethnic Rodarian and Catholic voters. His hawkish views became tempered when directly discussing Rodarion's role in the world, and his mentor, Julian Settas (who still retains significant support and goodwill among that ethnic group), lent his name to Goldman's campaign. Polls suggest Goldman won 54% of the ethnic vote that year; he increased it in his 2012 re-election to 58% according to several exit polls.

In 2014, results showed that ethnic Rodarians split their votes 53% - 46% Lib Dem - Tory, suggesting they are shifting to be a crucial swing vote in future elections.

Westerners

Western-Belhavians are overwhelmingly Jewish, 77%-23%, recent surveys suggest. They are the descendants of liberal refugees from socio-religious conflicts in Belhavia in the 1740s who fled to northern Belfras, which would become the Western Confederal States soon after. Since the 1910s, Western Jews and other Westerners have emigrated to the Empire in modest numbers, forming the largest ethnic group in the country by the 1980s to form about 7% of the population.

Ethnic Westerners skew conservative and libertarian. Polls and election surveys suggest the more religious one is in the Westerner community, the more likely one would vote Tory, while the more secular sided towards the Libertarians over the Liberal Democrats by a roughly two-thirds margin. A province, Westland, in Middle Belhavia was founded primarily by Westerners and they still constitute about 45% of the provincial population. Westland is a swing province between the Conservatives and Libertarians.

In the 2012 presidential election, opinion polls pinned the Westerner voting breakdown as 38.7% Tory, 31.8% Libertarian, and 29.5% Liberal Democrat. Although polls in the 2014 mid-terms pinned ethnic Western vote shares at 50.9% Tory, 37.8% Libertarian, and 11.3% Liberal Democrat, although election analysts posit this is because of lower voter turnout.