2021 Scovernois federal election: Difference between revisions

Jump to navigation Jump to search
Line 193: Line 193:


'''[[Frem (Scovern)|Frem]]''' (F.) have 18 seats in the Rigsdagen, and generally ran on a {{wp|right-wing populism|right-wing populist}}, {{wp|anti-corruption}} and {{wp|anti-establishment}} agenda in the 2017 election, also picking up some of the SAP's old industrial voterbase. Though it is the second-largest of the four minor parties, all six of the other parties agree to exclude Frem from any potential governing forming, including on sub-national levels. The party, its leader [[Jimmy Bruun]], and its members have come under heavy scrutiny before for comments made both during and outside of the political process.
'''[[Frem (Scovern)|Frem]]''' (F.) have 18 seats in the Rigsdagen, and generally ran on a {{wp|right-wing populism|right-wing populist}}, {{wp|anti-corruption}} and {{wp|anti-establishment}} agenda in the 2017 election, also picking up some of the SAP's old industrial voterbase. Though it is the second-largest of the four minor parties, all six of the other parties agree to exclude Frem from any potential governing forming, including on sub-national levels. The party, its leader [[Jimmy Bruun]], and its members have come under heavy scrutiny before for comments made both during and outside of the political process.
The '''[[Agrarian League (Scovern)|Agrarian League]]''' (Af; ''Agrarforbund'') is an {{wp|agrarianism|agrarian}}, {{wp|centrism|centrist}} party, with 15 seats in the Rigsdagen. The majority of Af's support come from Frelland, but they see limited support in rural Mesconia and Vestelia. The party also puts some focus on local issues. They generally provide informal {{wp|supply and confidence}} to incumbent governments, but rarely are included in the government itself. It is currently led by Vestelian [[Lars Jan Torbjørn Skauge]].
The '''[[Left Party (Scovern)|Left Party]]''' (VP; ''Venstrepartiet'') is the smallest of the represented parties, with 13 seats in the Rigsdagen. The party espouses {{wp|socialism}} and {{wp|Soft Euroscepticism|soft Eucloscepticism}}, and sees almost all of its popularity in old post-industrial regions. Its leader [[Kathrin Bendixen]] has said she is open to a coalition with the SAP, but the VP's concession demands are likely to conflict with the Greens.


== Opinion polls ==
== Opinion polls ==

Revision as of 16:27, 30 August 2021

2021 Scoverne federal election
Scovern
August 31, 2021 (2021-08-31)

All 318 seats of the Rigsdagen
160 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
LFP Ine-Linda Nesby 111
SAP Armela Viram Srimathi 89
Radicals Melkolm Jørn Højkirke 47
A–G89 Clara Brøndum 22
Frem Jimmy Bruun 21
Agrarforbund Lars Jan Torbjørn Skauge 15
Left Kathrin Bendixen 13
Scovern electoral map.png
Incumbent Premier
Wil Lee-Wright foto Rein Traante2017 MG 0419 (32592903182).jpg Ine-Linda Nesby
LFP

The 2021 Scoverne federal election will be held on August 31, 2021, to elect all 318 members of the Rigsdagen, and indirectly the next Premier of Scovern.

Background

In the 2017 Scoverne federal election, the SAP, who were seeking re-election under leader Sebastian Bertelsen, returned a historically low result in the wake of the 2017-18 Scoverne tax scandal, which alienated a lot of the party's vote. The main beneficiaries of this vote were the Radicals, whose socially liberal administration under Melkolm Jørn Højkirke took much of the progressive vote from the SAP, especially in urban areas.

In cities such as Sirnes-Tarberg, which still held a large left-wing labour movement, the SAP vote dissipated to both the Left Party, who equalled the SAP in seats in the city, and Frem, whose populist and anti-corruption rhetoric as well as an explicit focus on local issues in the city scored them a large seat boost.

The Radicals entered government with Ine-Linda Nesby's LFP under a coalition agreement in 2017. Governing in a notably more liberal way than the LFP's predecessor government, it achieved many progressive and liberal reforms, mainly pushed by the Radicals, including gender self-identification and the legalisation of recreational marijuana. The government partially drew the ire of the LFP's more conservative factions, some of which defected to Frem. The government, while technically a minority government, entered an informal confidence and supply agreement with Agrarforbund after the defections in 2018. For most of Nesby's tenure, the government has held 158 of 318 seats in the legislature, just two short of a majority.

Electoral system

Elections in Scovern are conducted using open-list proportional representation with the Boeri method in 38 constituencies across the nation. Seat numbers vary by constituency. 250 seats are directly elected, with an additional 68 leveling seats distributed using a national list vote. The levelling seats aim to make the composition of the Rigsdagen more proportional to vote counts.

The threshold for election is 4%, so parties represented in the Rigsdagen always carry at least 13 seats.

Elections are always held every four years, regardless of snap elections.

Political parties

Name Ideology Position Leader 2017 result
Votes (%) Seats
LFP Liberal People's Party
Liberale Folkspartiet
Liberal conservatism Centre-right Ine-Linda Nesby 34.87%
114 / 318
SAP Social Labour Party
Social Arbejderpartiet
Social democracy
Democratic socialism
Centre-left Armela Viram Srimathi 27.77%
89 / 318
Rad. Radicals
Radikale
Progressivism
Social liberalism
Centre Melkolm Jørn Højkirke 14.95%
47 / 318
A-G89 The Alternative–Greens '89
Alternativet–Grønne'89
Green politics
Eco-socialism
Centre-left to left-wing Clara Brøndum 6.95%
22 / 318
F Frem
Frem
National conservatism
Right-wing populism
Right-wing Jimmy Bruun 5.68%
18 / 318
Af Agrarian League
Agrarforbund
Agrarianism Centre Lars Jan Torbjørn Skauge 4.74%
15 / 318
VP Left Party
Venstreparti
Socialism
Soft Eucloscepticism
Left-wing Kathrin Bendixen 4.09%
13 / 318
FE Frelland Forever
Frelland að Eilífu
Regionalism
Agrarianism
Centre Nökkvi Hauksteinsson 0.09%
0 / 318
Aff Annic People's Union
Annskfolkeforbund
Regionalism
Annic politics
Self-determination
Centre-left Luviissá Råik 0.02%
0 / 318

The Liberal People's Party (LFP; Liberale Folkepartiet) are the largest party in the Rigsdagen, with 111 of 318 seats. It is the largest party in the current coalition government and the First Nesby cabinet, supplying both premier Ine-Linda Nesby and foreign minister Hans Aage Ohlsen. Coming off one of its best electoral results in recent memory, owing both to Nesby's own popularity as well as the 2016-17 Scoverne tax scandal, the party will likely look to re-enter government under another coalition agreement.

The Social Labour Party (SAP; Social Arbejderpartiet) are the second-largest party in the Rigsdagen, with 89 seats. After the 2016-17 tax scandal significantly affected the party's showing in the 2017 Scoverne federal election, the party under the new leadership of Armela Viram Srimathi gutted much of its old centrist wing, many of whom were involved in the scandal. The SAP sport one of Scovern's youngest prospective cabinets, but will likely also require a significant coalition partner to enter government. The Alternative–Greens '89, the Radicals, Agrarforbund and the Left Party could all emerge as potential coalition partners for the SAP. Policy-wise, Srimathi attempted to pivot towards environmentalist policies, but upon backlash in cities such as Sirnes-Tarberg, attempted to reconcile the vote with the adoption of prospective "Buy Euclean" policy, which has been adopted elsewhere in Euclea.

The Radicals (R. or Rad., Radikale) are the Rigsdagen's third-largest party with 47 seats, as well as the junior partner in the incumbent Lavender coalition[note 1] that have governed since 2017. Under leader Melkolm Jørn Højkirke, the Radicals were led to their best post-war electoral result by garnering a huge chunk of the SAP's progressive voterbase, and negotiated several significant social liberal concessions, including the legalisation of recreational marijuana and gender self-identification. Both passed the Rigsdagen in 2019, causing three LFP RMs to defect to Frem.

The Alternative–Greens '89 (A-G89; Alternativet–Grønne'89) are the fourth-largest party in the Rigsdagen and the largest of its four minor parties, with 22 seats. In 2017, the party refused to enter government with the SAP in wake of its scandal, but new leadership in the SAP and Greens have sought to reconcile this relationship. The prospect of coalition with the SAP is thought to be one of the reasons Srimathi has adopted more environmentalist and green policies, though it is likely Brøndum and the Greens will demand more in concessions if they are to enter government.

Frem (F.) have 18 seats in the Rigsdagen, and generally ran on a right-wing populist, anti-corruption and anti-establishment agenda in the 2017 election, also picking up some of the SAP's old industrial voterbase. Though it is the second-largest of the four minor parties, all six of the other parties agree to exclude Frem from any potential governing forming, including on sub-national levels. The party, its leader Jimmy Bruun, and its members have come under heavy scrutiny before for comments made both during and outside of the political process.

The Agrarian League (Af; Agrarforbund) is an agrarian, centrist party, with 15 seats in the Rigsdagen. The majority of Af's support come from Frelland, but they see limited support in rural Mesconia and Vestelia. The party also puts some focus on local issues. They generally provide informal supply and confidence to incumbent governments, but rarely are included in the government itself. It is currently led by Vestelian Lars Jan Torbjørn Skauge.

The Left Party (VP; Venstrepartiet) is the smallest of the represented parties, with 13 seats in the Rigsdagen. The party espouses socialism and soft Eucloscepticism, and sees almost all of its popularity in old post-industrial regions. Its leader Kathrin Bendixen has said she is open to a coalition with the SAP, but the VP's concession demands are likely to conflict with the Greens.

Opinion polls

Results

By constituency

Notes

  1. The Lavender coalition refers to the coalition of the LFP (blue) and the Radicals (purple).