Ummayah

Shahidic Republic of Ummayah الجمهورية الإسلامية ال اُمَّيأ al-Jumhūrīyah al-Shahīdīyah al-Ūmmayāh
Flag
Motto: الاستقلال والحرية وإعادة التوحيد "Independence, Freedom, and Reunification"
Terrain Map of Ummayah Terrain Map of Ummayah
Capital and largest city	Al-Haram
Ethnic groups (2013)	Ummayan 94% Mamluq 4% Other 2%
Demonym(s)	Ummayan
Government	Shahidic Republic
• President	Sherif Muhammad al-Fattah
• Prime Minister	Sulayman Qaraja Qureshi
Sovereign State
• Partitioning of Ummayah	2005
Area
• Total Land	723,126 (de
• Water (%)	0.632%
Population
• 2015 census	48,594,067
• Density	67.2/km2 (174.0/sq mi)
GDP (PPP)	2015 estimate
• Total	$629.9 billion
• Per capita	$12,963
GDP (nominal)	2015 estimate
• Total	$206.7 billion
• Per capita	$4,254
Gini (2015)	37.3 medium
HDI (2014)	0.789 high
Currency	Ummayan Dinar (UMD)
Time zone	Ummayan Central Time
Date format	dd/mm/yyyy
Driving side	right
Calling code	+327

Ummayah, formally the Shahidic Republic of Ummayah, is a sovereign state occupying the strategically important southern side of the Strait of Portcullia. Its capital and largest city is Al-Haram, located in the northern region of the country. With a population of 48,594,067 people, it is a mid-sized country with a developing economy. The Ummayan government claims territory with an area of 1,454,976 square kilometers, but actually governs 723,126; unless otherwise noted, all figures are calculated from the latter figure. Ummayah shares a small riverine border with the Federal Republic of Neo-Pillowlandia to the southeast, and borders <<empty map space>> to the south.

To the west, Ummayah borders Mamluqstan, a Gauliscian protectorate which declared independence during the 2005 Ummayan Civil War. Ummayah does not recognize Mamluqstan as a sovereign entity, instead asserting that the area is a portion of its sovereign territory held under colonial occupation. This dispute has become a source of acute geopolitical tension in Septentrion, especially after Ummayah joined the Menghean-backed Namhae Front in 2012.

History

Pre-colonial era

Archaeological records suggest that human populations first settled in what is today Ummayah more than three thousand years ago, arriving by boat from what is today the Republic of Innominada. Early populations were mostly nomadic, but by 500 BCE, permanent mud-brick towns were being built along some of the main river valleys. The expansion of sedentary agriculture, combined with a favorable climate for wheat farming, allowed a steady increase in population and the construction of large cities in the coastal river valleys.

As time passed, these small trading villages developed into a patchwork of city-states and small kingdoms, many of which were engaged in coastal trade. Historical records show that as early as the 6th century CE, there was sustained maritime trade between what is today Ummayah and ancient Menghe, peaking during the latter's Ŭi dynasty. This trade produced a flourishing mercantile economy, and helped to finance the consolidation of kingdoms, leading to the emergence of the Ayyubid caliphate which unified the country in 1402 and defeated an Ŭi dynasty fleet in 1487.

When traders and explorers arrived from Casaterra in 1507, they were harshly repelled by local garrisons, who mistook their ships for a second invasion fleet. This spared the Ayyubids the same fate as Menghe, which suffered a devastating plague after welcoming Casaterran explorers with unfamiliar pathogens. News of the colonization of northern lands, today Innominada and Maverica, led Ayyubid rulers to adopt a strict isolationist stance, barring foreign ships and traders from entering the country. It was not until the late 19th century that the Ayyubid caliphate, by that time weak and divided, collapsed under foreign military pressure and became a colony of <<<colonial power>>>.

Partition

Main article: Ummayan Civil War

In 2003, the Muttalib family's hold on the country began to slip, as protesters gathered in Independence Square to demand King Abdul's abdication. After the government attempted to clear them out with lethal force, rural areas throughout the country erupted in rebellion. Fighting dragged on indecisively for two years, allowing radical Shahidist groups like Junuud al-Kabaab to establish regional power bases in uncontrolled territory.

In late 2004, an expeditionary force from the Menghean People's Army arrived to back up the regime, having been told that the leadership would attempt reform. Disagreements quickly escalated between the two sides, however, as it became clear that the promise of reform was false. The situation deteriorated further in 2005, when a failed coup by the ruling Ba'athist Party threw the Ummayan Army into chaos. Realizing that the regime was lost, Menghean forces withdrew from the capital area and backed a rebel group, the Mujahideen, which had split off of Al-Kabaab as a moderate faction.

During this time, Gauliscian forces had landed in rebel-held territory to the west of the country, backing the Mamluq minority group to establish an independent protectorate. By spring of 2005, the conflict had developed into a confrontation between Mamluqstan and Meghean-backed rebel fighters, who had unified behind the banner of the Mujahideen. After beating back Gauliscian forces outside Basra at a heavy cost, Menghean troops withdrew from the country, leaving the Mujahideen to consolidate their control along the eastern coast and topple the last holdouts of Muttalib control.

By 2006, fighting had stalled out along a winding de-facto border down the middle of the country, with Mujahideen-controlled Ummayah to the east and an independent Mamluqstan to the west. The two sides agreed to a ceasefire on April 7th of that year, but they have not signed an official peace treaty, and the permanent state of Mamluqstan remains unresolved. Over the course of the decade that followed, both sides have re-armed with foreign military aid, and the Ummayan regime has made continued threats to retake Mamluqstan by force.

Government and politics

The Ummayan political system resembles a unitary presidential republic. The President is the highest political authority in the country, and is elected by universal suffrage for a term of four years. Notably, there are no term limits on the presidency, a policy which has allowed Sherif Muhammad al-Fattah to hold the post continuously for twelve years.

Below the President is the legislature, a 195-member unicameral body known as the Consultative Council. This body is headed by the Prime Minister, currently Sulayman Qaraja Qureshi. Representatives are elected from single-seat districts on a first-past-the-post basis, and serve four-year terms. The Consultative Council drafts legislation and approves certain executive decisions, such as budget plans and international treaties, but overall it is subordinate to the Presidency.

Ummayah's 2005 constitution states that the country is a "Shahidic republic." Although there is no theocratic leader higher in rank than the president, the constitution states that the government must pass laws in accordance with Shahidic doctrine. Ummayah's ruling party, the Mujahideen Council for Reunification, is also dominated by religious conservatives. This reflects the ruling party's origin as a religious militant group during the Ummayan Civil War, when it split from the more radical Junud al-Kabaab and led a renewed campaign against the Muttalib family.

Critics of the Ummayan government have questioned the fairness and transparency of its political system, as police and paramilitary forces frequently harass opposition parties and intimidate voters at the polls. In the 2013 election, al-Fattah was re-elected to the Presidency with 96.7% of the vote, leading to widespread accusations of electoral fraud and protests against the regime. Human rights groups have also labeled the government fundamentalist, arguing that its strict adherence to religious doctrine violates personal and political freedoms.

Foreign relations

Ummayah's foreign relations are strongly shaped by tensions over Mamluqstan, which the Ummayan government considers to be a rightful piece of its territory under foreign colonial occupation. Both the 2005 constitution and the ruling party's charter proclaim that the country's ultimate goal is reunification, whether through peace or through war. With this aim in mind, it has invested heavily in building up its conventional military forces along the contested border. It has also provided arms, funds, and training to resistance groups within Mamluqstan, leading some countries to label it a state sponsor of terrorism.

In order to compensate for its military weakness, Ummayah has invested in closer military ties with the Socialist Republic of Menghe, which backed the Mujahideen's rise to power in the second half of the Ummayan Civil War. Ummayah joined the Namhae Front in 2012, and has relied on Menghe for most of its military supplies. In return, it has allowed the Menghean Navy to base warships and aircraft along its northern coast, first to threaten the Socialist Republic of Innominada and later to guard the Strait of Portcullia. Nevertheless, the two countries' diplomatic relationship is somewhat strained, as the Menghean government has been a strong promoter of secular and moderate Shahidism on its own territory.

Military

The armed forces of Ummayah consist of the Ummayan Shahidic Army, the Ummayan Shahidic Navy, and the Ummayan Shahidic Air Force. There is also a separate paramilitary organization, the Ummayan Revolutionary Guard, which has an estimated 130,000 personnel under its command. While the Army, Navy, and Air Force are tasked with protecting Ummayah's borders (and taking the offensive into Mamluqstan), the Revolutionary Guard combines the roles of military police and gendarmerie, and its main peacetime mission is to hunt for infiltrators and maintain loyalty among the officer corps.

Military service is compulsory in Ummayah, and all males between the ages of 19 and 30 are required to serve for at least 12 months. Mamluqs and other minority groups are exempted from the draft due to concerns over their loyalty. The total strength of the Ummayan armed forces is estimated at 650,000 personnel, or 1.34% of the population. Ex-conscripts must remain in the reserves and conduct regular training for two years, allowing the military to call up an additional 1.1 million reservists in the event of major mobilization. An estimated 7 million Ummayans are part-time members of the National Defense Militia; but independent defense analysts are skeptical of Ummayah's ability to mobilize and equip this force, and mainly consider the NDM a potential recruiting base for insurgent groups in the event of a hostile invasion.

Ummayah has also supplied thousands of firearms, rockets, and ready-made explosives to the Mujahideen al-Tawhid, a terrorist group operating in Mamluqstan.

Because the country lacks a strong domestic military industry, Ummayah is heavily reliant on imported military equipment. Its chief supplier is Menghe, which has supplied Ummayah with its tanks, IFVs, APCs, and [[JJP-152/48|self-propelled artillery}}, among others. Most of the Ummayan Army's front-line equipment is relatively new, as Menghean suppliers have displayed a willingness to export current-generation equipment, except where other countries holding joint technology licenses forbade export to Ummayah. Even so, many of Ummayah's reservist forces still use improvised equipment or pre-war stockpiles, and even within the active forces not all units are fully mechanized.

Geography

Ummayah is located in Septentrion's eastern hemisphere, on the eastern half of the Ummayan Peninsula that extends northward between the South Menghe Sea and the East Meridian Ocean. Historically, its location at the southern end of the Strait of Portcullia has made it a strategic location in the region, able to influence the flow of trade through one of the busiest straits in the region. Ummayah is one of the few Septentrionian countries to cross the equator, falling between latitudes 3° S and 11° N.

In its present state, formalized in 2006, Ummayah has a land area of 723,126 square kilometers. The Ummayan government, however, does not recognize the 731,850-square-kilometer territory of Mamluqstan as an independent entity. Instead, it claims that the two form a single country, with a de jure land area of 1,454,976 square kilometers. This constitutes the largest single border dispute between sovereign states in Septentrion, almost twenty times larger than the disputed area between Mozria and the Federation of Soviet Republics.

Climate

Owing to its location on the equator with the South Menghe Sea to its east, Ummayah has a warm, humid subtropical climate. The eastern coast is defined by a tropical monsoon climate and receives the heaviest rainfall, with especially heavy precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere's summer months. Further inland, this turns into a tropical savanna climate, which receives slightly less rainfall but remains relatively humid. The area in the southwest is drier with a hot semi-arid climate, as most rain blowing in from the east falls on the Federal Republic of Neo-Pillowlandia or on the Ouled Naïl mountain range. In the capital city of Al-Haram, the average winter low temperature is 21°C and the average summer high is 34°C, with relatively little fluctuation over the course of the year - a pattern typical of Ummayan cities.

Economy

In 2015, Ummayah had a nominal GDP of $206.7 billion dollars, and a nominal GDP per capita of $4,254, placing it in the middle-to-low-income range. After accounting for purchasing power parity, these figures are somewhat higher, at $629.9 billion and $12,963 respectively. Its economy sustained heavy damage during and after the war, as indiscriminate fighting damaged buildings and infrastructure and foreign capital fled the country. Since then, it has recovered, but its economy is still plagued by structural problems.

Corruption is a serious issue in Ummayah. In 2016, the country registered a score of 26 on Septentrion's Corruption Perception Index, placing it among the countries at highest risk. Much of this corruption stems from the state-run oil sector, which has created abundant opportunities for officials to skim personal wealth out of oil profits. The oil sector is also inefficiently run, and the ruling party has persistently blocked any efforts to privatize it.

Ummayah's oil reliance has also crowded out many other industries. Because of the country's fiscal reliance on oil revenues and the political influence of oil managers, light and heavy industry firms have struggled to set up operations in the country, where conflicting regulations and rent-seeking by government officials represent major burdens to start-up firms.

Although oil accounts for more than a quarter of national GDP, it generates very little employment. Official statistics placed Ummayah's unemployment rate at 12% in 2014, though independent estimates have suggested figures as high as 30%, and the unemployment rate is higher for women than for men. These figures, in combination with a demographic bulge in the population ages 15-30, represent a significant source of social instability.

Oil and energy

With an estimated 75 billion barrels of oil in proven reserves, Ummayah ranks as one of the most oil-rich countries in Septentrion. For this reason, it is sometimes said to be an energy superpower, using market influence to compensate for its political isolation. Oil extraction in 2014 averaged 2.7 million barrels per day, lower than the peak of 5 MMbbl/day in 1982 but a significant improvement over extraction levels in 2006. Independent projections estimate that with proper investment the country could increase daily production to around 3.8 million barrels, but technological lag and inefficiency in the oil sector have hampered efforts to increase production. There are fewer than 2,000 functioning oil wells in the country, and no exploratory wells were drilled between 2003 and 2011.

In the wake of the Ummayan Civil War, the new regime nationalized all oil-related assets still present in the country. This move provided an important source of government revenue during reconstruction, and eliminated Ummayah's historical dependence on foreign oil companies. It also left the new government heavily dependent on oil exports, which today account for 87% of government revenue and a comparable share of new foreign exchange reserves. Officials appointed to manage oil extraction have been able to use the office to amass considerable wealth and influence, and the outright embezzlement of oil funds accounts for a significant drain on profitability in the petrochemical sector.

In spite of its abundant supply of oil, Ummayah produces less electricity than is required to meet demand, resulting in rolling blackouts in major cities and a permanent lack of power in the countryside. In 2010 the government launched a construction campaign that aimed to increase electricity output to 25,000 megawatts by 2015, but it has fallen short of that target even as electricity demand has risen, and the electrical grid still does not extend very far into the countryside. Rolling outages and high electricity prices are common complaints for everyday people in Ummayah, and they represent another obstacle to industrial development.

Agriculture

Coastal Ummayah's humid, tropical climate have historically sustained a large subsistence farming sector, though the country's thin soil and sometimes unpredictable weather patterns pose risks to large-scale agriculture. During the late 19th century, <<<colonial power>>> colonists set up sugar and rubber plantations in the northern half of the country, but harvests were disappointing, and the discovery of oil drew greater attention.

Today, 23% of Ummayah's land is under cultivation, and over 40% of Ummayah's population is engaged in agriculture. The main staple crops are wheat and corn. Sugar remains an important cash crop, though it pales in comparison to oil, and the growing of tropical fruits is once again on the rise. There is considerable potential for growth in the agricultural sector, which could resolve Ummayah's unemployment woes, but due to the influence of oil elites in dictating development policy, the government has neglected investment in rural infrastructure and irrigation.

The overuse of soil, the depletion of aquifers, and the slash-and-burn expansion of farmland have accelerated erosion and desertification across central Ummayah, reducing the area of arable land. Climate change has intensified this process, resulting in less predictable rainfall patterns and more frequent flash floods.

International trade

<<<If you have an embargo with Ummayah, say so here>>>

Since the country lifted trade restrictions in 2008, Menghe has been an important trading partner for Ummayah, and a vital source of investment. Menghe's Namhae Development Bank has supplied the Ummayan government with a cheap line of credit for infrastructure projects, and subsidiaries of the Samsan and Taekchŏn Heavy Industry Groups have cooperated with Ummayan oil companies on drilling new wells and improving port facilities. Nevertheless, the Menghean government has struggled to entice Jachi-hoesa to make lasting investments in Ummayah, and company managers cite pervasive corruption and safety concerns as obstacles to cooperation.

Demographics

According to the 2015 census, (eastern) Ummayah has a population of 48,594,067 people and an average population density of 67.2 people per square kilometer. Population density is highest along the northeastern coast, where abundant rainfall and fishing have long supported a higher population, and grows much sparser as one moves south and inland. The population growth rate averaged 1.86% over the last five years, but has recently started to stabilize.

Ethnic Groups

Approximately 94% of Ummayah's population belongs to the Abbasid ethnic group, which was the first to settle in farming communities closer to the coast and around sources of fresh water. Another 4% are identified as Mamluqs, descendants of nomadic tribes once concentrated in the center-west of the country. Owing to the latter's nomadic status and foreign dialect, Abbasids historically looked down on Mamluqs as an inferior culture, and restricted them to the periphery of society. This long-standing tension was one cause of the Mamluq faction's bid for independence in the Ummayan Civil War.

Secession won increased rights for Mamluqs in Mamluqstan proper, but it led to increased persecution in Ummayah. The ruling Mujahideen Council for Reunification passed a law in 2007 restricting Mamluqs to second-class citizenship and placing their communities under military surveillance. The government also forbade movement across the border, sealing nomadic clans into increasingly small pockets of land. Since 2009, it has also undertaken a coerced villagization program, re-settling ethnic Mamluqs in prefabricated communities that often lack access to fresh water, electricity, and arable soil.

The remaining 2% of Ummayah's population is composed of other minor ethnic groups, including small populations of Zulu and Swazi living on the coast near Neo-Pillowlandia. These populations have also endured persecution, though not on the same scale as Mamluqs.

Religion

The main religion in Ummayah is Shahidism, which was founded in the inland city of Makkah. Shahidism is also the state religion of Ummayah, a policy put in place by the Mujahideen when they came to power. The Mujahideen Council for Reunification also favors the Rashaida sect, which makes up about 85% of the population in de-facto Ummayah (and about 45% of the population when including Mamluqstan). Because of their alignment with the ruling party, Rashaida-Shahids enjoy privileged rights compared to their Kharjii cousins, who are concentrated in the southern and northwestern areas of the country.

Estimates of the number of non-Shahids in Ummayah vary by source, but the highest estimates claim there are around 150,000 Christians, less than half of a percent of the population. Due to emigration and forced conversion, the actual figure may be considerably lower. Other religions account for a negligible proportion of the population.