2021 Vinalian General election|
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| Registered | 19,572,520 |
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| Turnout | 15,181,482 (81%  0.8%) |
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The 2021 Vinalian General election was held on Sunday, 12 August 2021, to elect the 16th Vinalian Parliament of the United Republic of Vinalia. All 238 seats in the House of the People were up for election, as well as the 39 seats in the Senate of the Union. The election was called, after the Parliament was dissolved by President Ersnt Rupold, on June 12th 2021, as per law which mandates parliamentary elections 3 years after the previous parliamentary election, which had been carried out the 12th of August 2018.
Pavlov was competing to be reelected for his second term as head of the Unionist Party, which had been leading a Minority government since 2018. Although both Workers and Conservative parties were in Confidence and supply of Pavlov, and he did not face any challenge to his position during his term. One of his major criticisms was his inability to move forward with major bills as his government did not have the votes to act unilaterally. He promised in March 2020, that he would establish a coalition if the Unionist party did not gain a majority. The Workers Party the second largest party in Parliament has been hit by stagnant results in local elections and dissastifaction
with their unwillingness to form a coalition with the Unionists. A major scandal in November heavily reduced the parties polling numbers and led to a major breakout group, as the party held elections to replace its leader. Rayisa Bohdanivna was elected by the party and saw the party reform and announced its willingness to enter into a coalition with the Unionist party following the elections. The Conservative party, which had under Stepan Martynyuk moved further to the right, and increased its inflammatory rhetoric, which has seen it distance itself from the Pavlov government. The Conservative Party which had seen great success in local elections and with wavering support for the Nationalist and Freedom parties, the Conservative party was set to make gains against those two parties. Other parties such as the Indigenous and Green parties were expected to perform well in the election.
The Unionist, Workers, and Conservative parties made gains during the elections cementing their positions. No senators from neither of the 3 major parties were elected, including previous incumbents. The gains made by the Unionist party established them as the largest party and ensured Omelyan Pavlov a second term as Minister-President of Vinalia. The Conservative party made its greatest gains since the government of Ulyana Hryhorivna, primarily from a swing in former Freedom and Nationalist voters. The Socialist Alternative for Vinalia and Indigenous party of Vinalia made minor gains but made little process in dissuading voters of the 3 major parties, instead gaining most of their support from Green and the Workers International voters.
Omelyan Pavlov was announced as the new Minister-President of Vinalia on the 18th of August following the establishment of a ruling coalition with the Workers party which granted Pavlov a ruling majority in both houses of parliament, and almost a 2/3rds majority in the house. Valeria Kunavin was elected as president of the Republic on the 14th of August following a pre election agreement by all 3 major parties, succeeding President Ersnt Rupold the following morning. Valeria was the first Independent President or Minister-President elected in the history of Vinalia.
Electoral process
Voters elect using the closed list Proportional representation method, each province/federal district is slotted at the minimum one seat, with seats being added in relation to the province/district with the smallest population (currently the province of Juyu Ruwach South with 134,600 people). The largest province by population and seats is that of Shyroniy with 36 seats followed by Rigalia with 33 seats. Elections are held every three years, with seats being assigned every 10 years following a census (the Federal district of Vinalinsk had a census performed in 2017, adding three more seats into the district.)
Each voter can cast two votes for the House: a provincial party list vote (first vote) and a national list vote (second vote). Based solely on the first votes, 188 members are elected by closed party lists in all 13 Provinces/Districts. The second votes are used to produce 50 seats for parties at a national level. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method. To be assigned a seat in the National List a party must receive more second votes nationwide than the electoral threshold of 5%.
Elections for the Senate are similar to House elections with the exception that all provinces/districts elect 3 members regardless of population, a 33% of the vote is required for a party to sit a member, although this is hard to achieve. As with the house, the party with the largest percentage of the vote gets seated, in case the vote is split and the threshold cannot be reached.
Background
Workers party leadership crisis
The Workers party under Vadym Stepanovych, had arrived from a bad 2018 election. Workers voters and party members were left unsatisfied by Vadym which refused to enter into an official coalition with the Unionist party of Pavlov. Although the Workers party operated in great cohesion with the Unionist parties, no official coalition agreement was ever reached following the breakdown of the Grand Coalition between Unionist-Workers-Conservative in April 2018, which ended Turden Najic's Minister-Presidency. Vadym had made it a goal of the party to enter into a coalition with the Unionist party to exclude the Conservative party from any coalition agreement with the Unionists. His inability to respond to Conservative attacks and pressure also led to general unpopularity.
Following the defeat of Workers incumbent Mayor of Tajinsk Taisiia Zhena in October 19th 2020, to the Conservatives, a position she had held for 8 years and was highly expected to keep. Vadym attempted to direct the party towards a more moderate view. Such a move angered the left wing of the party which rallied around Orlavo Senator Alina Rybak in opposition to him. Although un satisfaction with Vadym was wide inside the party, no candidate held sufficient support to launch a successful leadership challenge, additionally the instability this might create for the party was deemed as too much of a risk in the face of coming elections. Yet public dissatisfaction with Vadym existed.
On November 4th, after a business trip to Soravia, Vadym was pictured in a Soravian beach resort kissing a woman who was later identified to be a campaign staffer. The pictures appeared in Vinalian Tabloid Morning News (Ранкові Hовини; Rankovi Novyny) the morning after, becoming a major breaking story. Vadym was called out after having denounced Freedom party Velkarichka city councillor Yankul Kollar in January, who had been found to be cheating on his wife, House member Amelia Tychinka with a campaign staffer. Vadym initially remained silent, but after the possibility of investigation into Vadym's campaign staffers and how they had managed to afford such rooms in the Soravian resort. Vadym flew back to Vinalia on November 6th, and resigned his position as leader of the workers party, triggering a party leadership election within 3 months. As no clear successor to Vadym existed, a general leadership crisis began.
The crisis resulted in the party setting elections for the 30th January to elect a party leader. Initially 3 major candidates were seen as ideological successors to Vadym which represented the traditional moderate wing of the party: The Speaker of the Senate, Yaroslav Savych; leader of the Workers party in the House, Artur Vsevolodovych; and House member Alla Leontiyivna. Although neither of the 3 candidates had more than 10% of support among the party electorate, as close to 30 individuals were in the race for the position. Alina Rybak received a major boost on her candidacy when on November 9th she delivered a speech in opposition to Pavlov. She quickly became the face of the left wing of the party, although her support among members inside Parliament was limited her outspoken attitude earned her support from younger voters.
On November 18th she announced that she and another Senator along with 4 house members were leaving the party and establishing a new party, the Socialist Alternative for Vinalia. The announcement was a surprise to the party electorate, and many flooded to support Alina. By the end of December, 3 Senators and 15 House members had switched over to the Socialist Alternative, as had a large group of legislatures in the State Legislatures and municipal positions. The party was polling at 14% during December 2% over the Workers party, however her credibility was hurt following the surfacing of pictures of her with the People's Defence Action Group, a pro-People's Republic of Vinalia which denies the illegality or existence of killings of religious prisoners during the leadership of Danylo Palij between 1966 and 1975. Her inability to counter such attacks, along unapologetic remarks began to reduce her numbers, the election of Rayisa Bohdanivna to the leadership of the Workers Party on January 15th cemented the Socialist Alternative to between 2-4% of support.
Rayisa Bohdanivna a relatively young House member at just 36, she had been elected just 3 years prior in 2018. She had gained a vast following on social media and was highly popular with the young members of her party. She was also seeing as a compromise candidate between the moderate traditional wing of the party, and the leftist breakaways of the Socialist Alternative.
| Candidate
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First ballot:
10 January 2021
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Second ballot:
20 January 2019
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Third ballot:
30 January 2019
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| Votes
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%
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Votes
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%
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Votes
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%
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| Rayisa Bohdanivna
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152,637
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12.55
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291,631
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23.39
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689,778
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51.36
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| Yaroslav Savych
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252,951
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20.79
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310,636
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24.91
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401,621
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29.90
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| Alla Leontiyivna
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205,601
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16.90
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235,103
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18.85
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251,720
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18.74
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| Artur Vsevolodovych
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195,678
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16.08
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209,693
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16.82
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Eliminated
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| Koloman Macheshich
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83,788
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6.89
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199,910
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16.03
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Eliminated
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| Bronislav Tymofijovych
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80,526
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6.62
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Eliminated
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| Maryanna Malupin
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68,136
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5.60
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Eliminated
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| Grigori Shemiatov
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56,195
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4.62
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Eliminated
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| Ivan Okhmatov
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53,783
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4.42
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Eliminated
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| Other
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67,262
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5.53
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Eliminated
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| Turnout
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1,216,557
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88.82
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1,246,973
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91.04
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1,343,119
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98.06
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With the threat of a possible split vote by left-wing voters in the General election, the party sought a member more to the left which could steal away support from the Socialist Alternative, and the Unionist Party. One such frontrunner was Rayisa Bohdanivna, who had gathered a sizeable following in social media, and was well known in her rebuttals and attacks on the Conservative party, her criticism of both Vadym and Alina earned her support inside parliament and outside.
Parties
Opinion polls
Campaign
Legal Campaigning begun on the 12th of June 2021, when Parliament was dissolved by the president. Although legally parties and candidates cant enter into Television advertisement agreements before the dissolvement of parliament, numerous hold pre arranged deals, which are officially signed on the morning of the 13th, and enter into force the day after. Newspapers can print advertisements on the 12th with the intention of distribution the morning after.
Results
Senate of the Union
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| Party
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Total
votes
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Seats
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| +/–
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Unionist Party |
352,522 |
16 |
+2
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Workers Party |
352,522 |
12 |
+2
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Conservative Party |
352,522 |
11 |
+3
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Freedom Party |
352,522 |
0 |
-5
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Nationalist Party |
352,522 |
0 |
-1
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Green Party |
352,522 |
0 |
-1
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| Valid votes |
46,362,013 |
98.9 |
–
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| Invalid/blank votes |
492,495 |
1.1 |
–
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| Total votes |
46,854,508 |
100.0 |
39
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| Registered voters/turnout |
61,181,072 |
76.6 |
–
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| Source: Electoral Commission of Vinalia
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House of the People
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| Party
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Total
votes
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Seats
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| +/–
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Unionist Party |
5,029,517 |
75 |
+6
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Workers Party |
4,206,214 |
43 |
+6
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Conservative Party |
3,569,603 |
40 |
+12
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Green Party |
616,964 |
7 |
-1
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Freedom Party |
310,266 |
6 |
-19
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Indigenous Party of Vinalia |
525,163 |
4 |
New
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Nationalist Party |
225,674 |
4 |
-7
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Socialist Alternative for Vinalia |
392,663 |
3 |
New
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Vinalian Section of the Workers International |
239,205 |
2 |
-3
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Ivan Melan |
352,522 |
1 |
0
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|
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| Valid votes |
15,142,520 |
99 |
–
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| Invalid/blank votes |
152,526 |
1 |
–
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| Total votes |
15,295,046 |
100.0 |
185
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| Registered voters/turnout |
18,592,520 |
82.26 |
–
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| Source: Electoral Commission of Vinalia
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Chyhyryn
Kisharsk
Velkarichka
Zamara
Zdavro
Vinalia
