2019 Weranian federal election

2019 Weranian federal election

31 May 2019
All 545 seats to the House of Deputies 273 seats are needed for a majority in the House of Deputies
Turnout	36,209,578 (77.91%) 4.8%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Otto von Hößlin Josef Felder Ursula Böhmer & Josef Kirui Party NKP SRPO Greens Leader since 3rd August 2015 17th October 2017 7th November 2015 Leader's seat Wolfsfled Cislania Westbrücken & Cislania Last election 151 seats, 28.51% 220 seats, 31.10% 16 seats, 3.69% Seats won 253 85 80 Seat change 102 135 64 Popular vote 13,257,365 5,454,682 6,704,684 Percentage 36.61% 15.06% 18.52% Swing 8.10% 16.04% 14.83%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Ludwig Ngo Arvydas Ražauskas Käthe Schickdanze Party PMZ NNK DA Leader since 14th January 2019 20th March 1999 18th October 2014 Leader's seat Westbrücken Ruttland Prizen Last election 52 seats, 9.49% 8 seats, 2.50% 38 seats, 7.56% Seats won 32 31 30 Seat change 20 23 8 Popular vote 2,385,936 1,513,096 3,300,557 Percentage 6.59% 4.18% 6.09% Swing 2.90% 1.68% 1.47%
Map of constituency seats won (upper) and of states won in the proportional block (lower).
Premier before election Josef Felder SPRO Elected Premier Otto von Hößlin NKP

The 46^th federal election was held in the Weranian Confederation for the House of Deputies (the lower house of the Bundestag) on the 31^st May 2019. All 545 members of the Volkstag were elected under a single non-transferable vote system in multi-member electoral districts. The election was held in conjunction with elections for the Euclean Parliament. The election saw the governing coalition of the Social Democratic Radical Party and Modern Centre Party decisively defeated by the National Consolidation Party which after 8 years in opposition returned to power in a coalition government with the Democratic Alternative.

The election was called on the 29^th March after the expiration of the previous House of Deputies term for the end of May by Premier Josef Felder. The election was dominated by the issues of public spending and climate change. Migration and the Euclean Community were minor issues in the campaign, whilst other foreign policy issues were largely ignored. Law and order became a prominent theme after an exiled Tsabaran journalist for the banned Badawiyan Examiner., Jaal al-Obeid, was attacked in Westbrücken. The campaign saw the NKP rise in the polls whilst the SRPO's attempts at triangulation were seen to backfire with their poll numbers dwindling.

The election saw the incumbent SRPO-PMZ coalition suffer one of the worst defeats of a sitting government with the NKP winning by a landslide and gaining the most seats. This was the highest increase in the NKP vote and seat count in their history compared to a prior election. The Greens - Ecological Action also saw large gains narrowly being beaten by the SRPO who got the worst result in their history in terms of seats. The National Coalition for Independence became the largest party in Ruttland, largely at the expense of the Sotirian Democratic Homeland which also suffered a historic defeat. The Weranic Section of the Workers' International also recorded its worst result in over 100 years.

Turnout increased from 74.17% to 77.91%, the highest since the 2007 election.

Electoral process

Werania has since 1952 used a mixed-member majoritarian system. 300 seats are elected by proportional representation with the entire country treated as a single electoral district and a 3% electoral threshold being in place. The other 245 seats are elected via single-member constituencies through a first-past-the-post voting system. The current electoral boundaries for the 245 constituency seats were approved in 2010 by the Electoral Board, with boundaries being decided every 10 years based on census data. Should a party have 273 or more representative in the House of Deputies, it has an absolute majority and could thus govern autonomously, without a coalition partner. The constitution can be amended with a supermajority of two-thirds, or 360 deputies.

Voters have to registrar to vote by the 28 April. In order to be eligible to vote one must be over the age of 18, be a citizen of Werania, have a permanent address in Werania and not be currently in prison.

Each party by convention nominates a single "premier candidate" (spitzenkandidat) that leads the party in debates, even if the party has multiple leaders. However only the largest parties spitzenkandidats - the NKP and SRPO - are considered to be likely to become premier.

Background

At the last election the coalition government of the centre-left Social Democratic Radical Party of Werania (SRPO) and the liberal Modern Centre Party (PMZ) lost its majority. The opposition National Consolidation Party (NKP) lost a handful of seats with the major gains being made by third parties such as the Greens - Ecological Action, Democratic Alternative (DA) and the Weranic Section of the Workers' International (OSAI). The coalition government was renewed after a minor parties - the Aldman People's Party (AFP) and the Sotirian Democratic Homeland (SDT) - agreed to support the government in a confidence and supply agreement. The AFP promised to vote with the government or abstain on confidence motions and budgets provided they were consulted on budgetary matters. Premier Viktor Oberhauser unveiled a new cabinet on the 14^th July 2015 with PMZ leader Klaus Reimann being reappointed Minister of Finance.

Following the election the NKP's leader Günter Schaefer resigned. His successor, former Defence Minister Otto von Hösslin, reorientated the party to the populist right advocating hard-line anti-immigration policies, rises in welfare spending, tax cuts and Euclescepticism. Following von Hösslin's election the NKP rose in the polls especially as the government lost popularity.

The SRPO lost popularity following the RotHaus scandal, when the government was accused of having during the 2015 election have given favourable breaks to construction company RotHaus Construction in return for political donations. Combined with continued austerity policies this led to a decline in support for the SRPO and PMZ and rise in support for the NKP and the Greens. At the 2018 House of Councillors election the SRPO suffered a historic loss with the opposition gaining a majority in the chamber. As a result there was a movement by the right-wing of the SRPO to install foreign minister Klaus Barchmann as premier to replace Oberhauser who was increasingly seen as out-of-touch and unpopular with the electorate. This plot failed, but Oberhauser subsequently resigned. The SRPO elected the Minister-President of Cislania, Josef Felder, to replace him.

Felder was intended to revive support for the SRPO as he was seen as a combative politician who would provide a clear contrast with the NKP's right-wing populism. Whilst his straight-talking style was initially popular it became unpopular amongst the electorate especially as the NKP grew in popularity as did the Greens. In 2018 the SRPO lost a important state elections in Prizen and Cislania, the latter of which being the most populous state in Werania, to the NKP. Felder in November that year intended to call an early election by intentionally losing a vote of no confidence, freezing the AFP out of budget. The move was seen as risky and was opposed by the PMZ who forced Felder to u-turn on the proposal. Felder subsequently lost his reputation as a decisive leader and leading into the election saw his personal approval ratings collapse. The incident caused the PMZ leader Klaus Reimann to resign as PMZ chairman and vice-premier although he pledged to stay on Finance Minister. His replacement Interior Minister Ludwig Ngo was inaugurated in January 2019, the first Coian vice-premier.

Timetable

29 March	Premier Josef Felder announced his intention to dissolve the House of Deputies and hold an election for the 31st May.
1 April	Holder of the Federal Presidency Charlotte II approves of the Premier's request to hold an election.
4 April	Formal dissolution of the House of Deputies; start of campaign period.
28 April	Last day members of the public could register to vote.
1 May	Last day in which members of the public could apply for proxy voting or postal voting.
18 May	Last day for candidates to file nomination papers.
31 May	Polling day
7 June	New House of Deputies Assembled

Parties

Below are the parties of the outgoing 2015-2019 legislature who filed to run in the 2019 election.

Parliamentary affiliation	Party			Ideology	Spitzenkandidat	Outgoing seats	In government
Left			Weranic Section of the Workers' International	Socialism, Libertarian socialism	Peter Lötzsch	26 / 545	N
Centre-left			Greens - Ecological Action	Green politics, Progressivism	N/A	16 / 545	N
			Social Democratic Radical Party of Werania	Social democracy, Social liberalism	Josef Felder	220 / 545	Y
Centre			Aldman People's Party	Aldman interests, Liberalism	N/A	2 / 545	*
			National Coalition for Independence	Ruttish separatism, Populism	N/A	8 / 545	N
			Modern Centre Party	Liberalism, Economic liberalism	Ludwig Ngo	52 / 545	Y
Centre-right			Sotirian Democratic Homeland	Ruttish regionalism, Sotirian Democracy	N/A	20 / 545	*
			United Party	Weranian-Charlotte Islander unionism, Conservatism	N/A	1 / 545	N
			National Consolidation Party	Conservatism, Sotirian Democracy	Otto von Hößlin	151 / 545	N
Right			Democratic Alternative	National liberalism, Euclescepticism	Käthe Schickdanze	38 / 545	N

Campaign

Electoral programmes

Josef Felder at the final SRPO rally in Westbrücken.

The SRPO announced their electoral programme on the 14 May. The programme promised to continue the prudent fiscal management of the outgoing government whilst raising spending in social services and healthcare. The SRPO also published a serious of policies such as an increase minimum wage from €9 to €12 an hour by 2022, introduce controls on rent rises, aim to build 80,000 houses a year, reduce university tuition fees from €3,000 to €1,000 and raise taxes on high income earners and corporations. Immigration, long a hot-button topic in Weranian politics, was also addressed in the electoral programme with the SRPO pledging to implement a points-based system for non-EC migration and recruiting 100 additional border guards. This latter move was seen as a move to the right and was heavily contested by the SRPO's allies, with some complaining that the SRPO was attempting to triangulate to both the left and right but alienating both.

The NKP meanwhile stated that in government they would have three priorities - limiting immigration, having tougher policies on crime and cutting taxes. On immigration the NKP promised to restrain illegal migration, prevent unemployed migrants from obtaining befits of the social system, to cease the expansion of immigrant-parallel societies, implement a points-based system for non-EC migration and enter talks in the EC to renegotiate immigration rules to prevent social dumping. On the economy the NKP called for the creation of a flat income tax of 15% and tax cuts for business in order to stimulate economic growth. The NKP also pledged to increase national living wage in line with increase in median earnings and increase pensions whilst freezing benefits for those unwilling to work. The NKP also indicated they wished to increase policing numbers to 100,000 new officers and expand border security by 200 more guards. The NKP's electoral programme was seen as a departure from their previous stances being considered to be more nationalist, populist and economically interventionist then their 2015 programme.

NKP leader Otto von Hößlin campaigning with Cislanian Minister-President Bartholomäus Stobrawa in Ostdorf am Main.

The Modern Centre Party like the SRPO largely supported the policies of the outgoing administration. On economic issues the PMZ promised to maintain a balanced budget through fiscal restraint, saying they will seek to raise spending in healthcare and education whilst cutting unnecessary waste and welfare benefits. The PMZ in contrast to the two largest parties stated they will strongly support continued high-skilled immigration to support key sectors of economy whilst providing funding for areas to deal with higher migration, stating they wish to protect Werania's multicultural society from "divisive, populist attacks". Healthcare was also a key focus of the PMZ campaign who have stated they will raise healthcare spending whilst introducing private-public partnerships in select hospitals in order to "combine state investment and private-sector efficiency". Alongside the Greens and SDT the PMZ was one of the few parties to endorse a federal Euclea.

The Green electoral programme attempted to position the party as a centre-left alternative to the outgoing coalition. The Greens stated that they wished to end austerity policies opposing cuts to benefits, tax credits and and pensions whilst ending insecure employment such as zero-hours contacts and regulating the "gig" economy. The Greens also defended an "open, progressive and fair" immigration policy and wish to strengthen asylum rights. In education the Greens called to repeal government cuts to teachers salaries, eliminate tax breaks to private schools and phase out tuition loans to be gradually replaced to a grants-only system. The Greens also stated their desire to raise taxes on top income owners and corporations to fund increased spending in hospitals, schools and welfare as well as nationalise sections of the health and transport sectors privatised by the current government. In environment policy the Greens promised to introduce a carbon tax, ban fracking, invest in renewable resources and end all current nuclear projects and phase out existing plants. The programme was considered somewhat more moderate then previous Green programmes due to an attempt to court former SRPO voters to vote for the party.

Green leader Ursula Böhmer (centre) at a Green event.

The Democratic Alternative in contrast to the other parties supported a referendum on the Euclo with the option to restore the Reichmark stating that they would lobby for an in/out referendum on the EC as a whole if there is sufficient support for it. In the meantime they sought to support a renegotiation of EC treaties in order to move power from Kesselborg back to national capitals. The Democratic Alternative also supported right-wing positions on immigration and integration committing to reduce net migration to zero over a five-year period, banning circumcision, establish mandatory Weranic language classes for children with a lacking knowledge of the Weranic language and mandating that new migrants to pay tax for seven years before they are eligible for benefits. The DA supported a economically liberal positions supporting a flat tax of 11%, cutting spending in welfare and privatising sections of the healthcare and education sectors. The DA was seen to move to the right both on the Euclean Community and fiscal policy as a result of the NKP's own move to the right being seen to undercut the DA's voterbase.

Attack on Jaal al-Obeid

On the 1^st May Jaal al-Obeid - a Tsabaran journalist for the The Badawiyan Examiner who fled to Werania after the Examiner was shut down by the Tsabaran government - narrowly survived an assassination attempt by a Tsabaran national in Westbrücken. This soon led to a spotlight being placed both on rising crime in Werania and a seeming inability for law enforcement to prevent violent crime in particular and Werania's relatively cordial relations with the government of Atwan al-Tughluq. This led to law and order to become an increasingly prominent part in Weranian political discourse alongside anti-immigration sentiment. NKP vice-president Jörg Bullmann stated that the attempted assassination was as a result of "open door immigration policy gone wild" and that Werania had to implement much tougher immigration laws to prevent "the politics and violence of the Orient appearing on our shores".

As a result of the focus on law and order policies the NKP's polling increased as the expense of the SRPO. Otto Niemann, a prominent liberal journalist for Der Tägliche Beobachter stated that in the aftermath of the attack "the discourse of the election shifted to the right with increasingly xenophobic appeals to tough law and order policies becoming common not just amongst the NKP but the SRPO as well". Jaal al-Obeid did not endorse any party during the election.

Slogans

Party		Original slogan	Estmerish translation
	Social Democratic Radical Party of Werania	Ein gerechtes, fortschrittliches Ostischland	A fair, progressive Werania
	National Consolidation Party	Die zukunft Ostischlands sichern	Securing the future of Werania
	Modern Centre Party	Ein besseres Ostischlands aufbauen	Building a better Werania
	Greens - Ecological Action	Ja zu ändern!	Yes to change!
	Democratic Alternative	Unser land zurücknehmen	Taking our country back
	Sotirian Democratic Homeland	Ruttųijos yra mano tėvynė, Werajoje - mano šalis, o Euclua - mūsų ateitis	Ruttland is my homeland, Werania is my country and Euclea is our future
	Weranic Section of the Workers' International	Eine gemeinsame zukunft	A shared future
	National Coalition for Independence	Ruttųijos ateitis yra Ruttųijos rankose	Ruttland's future is in Ruttland's hands
	Aldman People's Party	Trochstjoere tegearre	Forward Together
	United Party	Malosi leo Eine starke stimme	A strong voice

Opinion Polls

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Results

Party		Constituency			Propotional			Total	±
		Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats
	National Consolidation Party	14,028,691	38.74	137	13,257,365	36.61	116	253	102
	Social Democratic Radical Party	7,012,386	19.37	38	5,454,682	15.06	47	85	135
	Greens - Ecological Action	5,563,309	15.36	22	6,704,684	16.86	58	80	64
	Modern Centre Party	2,174,054	6.00	12	2,385,936	6.59	20	32	20
	National Coalition for Independence	1,498,375	4.14	18	1,513,096	4.18	13	31	23
	Democratic Alternative	1,498,375	4.14	2	3,300,557	9.12	28	30	8
	Weranic Section of the Workers' International	1,798,554	4.97	4	2,157,395	5.96	18	22	4
	Sotirian Democratic Homeland	548,952	1.52	9	539,583	1.49	0	9	11
	Aldman People's Party	256,702	0.71	2	222,849	0.62	0	2	-
	United Party	18,896	0.05	1	18,674	0.05	0	1	-
	Others	588,787	1.63	0	504,857	1.38	0	0	0
Invalid/blank votes		653,523	–	–	–	-	-	-	-
Total		36,209,580	-	245	36,209,580	-	300	545	-
Registered voters/turnout		46,474,226	78.95%	–	–	-	-	-	-

Aftermath

Outcome

The election was won by the National Consolidation Party gaining the most amount of seats in seven states (eight including the NKP's affiliate in Charlotte Island the Unity Party) and the best single result for a Weranian political party since the 2003 election when the NKP also secured 244 seats. It was the best numerical increase in seats for the NKP in its history over a single election reversing the results of the last three consecutive elections. The 244 seat total meant that the NKP was all but certain to form the next government under Otto von Hößlin. The NKP's strong result came at the expense of other right-wing parties - the DA's result was much lower then their 2015 vote whilst the OVFP also had a poor result.

The SRPO suffered a catastrophic defeat scoring their worst result in their history with only 85 seats, only narrowly coming ahead of the Greens in terms of seats and coming behind them in terms of the vote. The party lost first place in several strongholds such as Westbrücken, Kolreuth, Ruttland and Bonnlitz-Ostbrücken. Premier Josef Felder was defeated in his own seat, although he was elected on the proportional list. Their coalition partners, the PMZ, also suffered a bad defeat with their 32 seats being the lowest since the 1975 election. The result led to the resignation of SRPO leader and premier Felder and PMZ leader and vice-premier Ludwig Ngo.

The only parties aside the NKP that made net gains during the election was the Greens and NNK. The Greens increase from 22 to 80 seats catapulted them from the seventh largest party in the House of Deputies to the third, getting only 5 less seats from the SRPO. The NNK also scored a respectable 31 seats becoming the largest party in Ruttland, making it the first time since the Great War that a Ruttish nationalist party gained the most seats in the province.

Turnout rose to the highest since the 1995 election at 78.95%. Both the NKP and Greens were credited with encouraging a large amount of previous non-voters to vote for them in the election.

Government formation

After the exit poll was published premier Felder and his cabinet resigned as a whole, staying in a caretaker capacity until a new cabinet could be formed. The consensus was that the NKP would lead the next government with von Hösslin as premier but that the makeup of the government was still undecided. The three scenarios thought to be plausible for the composition of the next government were -

• A NKP minority government supported by confidence and supply agreements;
• A NKP-DA coalition government;
• A NKP-PMZ coalition government.

The second option was judged most likely but according to observers the NKP wished to first pursue a minority government that would likely gain support from the DA or PMZ depending on the proposed policies.

The PMZ quickly confirmed that they would aim to sit in opposition for the next parliamentary term and would only consider a supply agreement with the NKP if all other options were exhausted. The Federal Presidency Charlotte II formally appointed von Hösslin as regierungsbildner on the 2 June with the task to form a government. Von Hösslin at first attempted to secure a confidence and supply agreement with the DA; DA leader Käthe Schickdanze had made a commitment to maintaining a balanced budget a red line in coalition talks leading the NKP to wish for a looser supply agreement. However the DA refused to support a NKP minority government leading to Von Hösslin to offer a coalition agreement instead which would give the DA two cabinet postings - Foreign Affairs and Social Affairs. The DA accepted this proposal on the 27 June with a vote taking place in the Bundestag the same day. The investiture vote (below) was successful in the House of Deputies before passing the House of Councillors (with the opposition abstaining). On the 28 June Charlotte II formally appointed the von Hösslin cabinet with von Hösslin as premier and premier as vice-chancellor and foreign minister.

Investiture Otto von Hößlin (NKP)
Ballot →		27 June 2019
Required majority →		273 out of 545 Y
	Yes • NKP (253) • DA (30) • VP/AP (1)	284 / 545
	No • SRPO (85) • Greens (80) • PMZ (32) • NNK (31) • OSAI (22) • AVP (2)	250 / 545
	Abstentions • SDT (9)	9 / 545
	Absentees	0 / 545