Demographics of Menghe

Demographics of Menghe
Population of Menghe from 1930 to 2020
Population	541,935,096 (2020 census)
Growth rate	1.242% (2020)
Birth rate	12.97 per 1,000 (2020)
Life expectancy	78.07 years (2020)
• male	76.21 years (2020)
• female	79.93 years (2020)
Fertility rate	1.78 children per woman (2020)
Infant mortality rate	5.72 deaths per 1000 live births (2020)
Age structure
0–14 years	18.59% (2020)
15–64 years	70.55% (2020)
65 and over	10.86% (2020)
Sex ratio
At birth	1.06 male to female (2020)
Under 15	1.06 male to female (2020)
15–64 years	1.05 male to female (2020)
65 and over	0.87 male to female (2020)
Nationality
Nationality	noun: Menghean adjective: Menghean
Major ethnic	Meng
Minor ethnic	Lac, Argentans, Daryz, Kungnai, Dzhungars, Ketchvans
Language
Official	Standard Menghean

According to the 2020 Census, conducted on January 1st, Menghe had a population of 541,935,096 people, making it the second most populous country in Septentrion. The total fertility rate was 1.78 during the preceding year, below the natural replacement level of 2.1, though the population grew 1.24% due to declining mortality for higher age groups. Though the population is projected to continue growing for the next decade, the government has expressed concerns about the looming strains presented by an aging society.

Population

Events impacting demographics

For most of the 20th century, Menghe's natural rate of population change has been consistent with a high rate of population growth, as industrialization lowered infant mortality rates and allowed more children to reach childbearing age. In 1930, for instance, the total fertility rate was estimated at 5.2 births per woman, and annual population growth at 1.36%. Events during the 20th century, however, had a dramatic impact on Menghe's population growth, and during three periods the country experienced sustained negative population growth.

The first demographic shock was the Pan-Septentrion War. Over the course of thirteen years between 1932 and 1935, Menghe lost an estimated 3,437,000 military personnel, along with over 1.7 million civilian casualties, mainly from strategic bombing. Though census data for this period are spotty, independent estimates suggest that in 1945 Menghe experienced its first net population decline since the country's unification.

Negative population growth continued through the mid-to-late 1940s, as the Pan-Septentrion War carried over into the early stages of the Menghean War of Liberation. Allied estimates record some 300,000 military casualties in 1946, more than Menghe sustained in 1940, and 100,000 more in 1947. Civilian casualties also remained high during this period, due to the controversial Order 516 which resumed strategic bombing of population centers. On top of this, damaged infrastructure, chaotic administration, and an El Niño drought combined to produce a severe famine that may have left 3 million people dead. In tandem, baseline mortality figures returned to their 1930 levels, as forced de-urbanization and wartime damage to medical infrastructure left millions of people without adequate medical care.

Another wave of high mortality coincided with the final phase of the War of Liberation, as the Menghean Liberation Army massed its guerillas into a conventional force and pushed southward across the country. On top of some 1.77 million war dead, large numbers of civilians either perished in the crossfire or fled the country, fearing retribution by Communist-Nationalist forces. After the war's end in 1964, however, Menghe experienced a large baby boom as soldiers returned home and families settled into a long-awaited period of stability. The total fertility rate peaked at 5.48 in 1966 and remained above 4 until the early 1980s. In tandem with rising life expectancy, which improved welfare and rural medical care under the Communist government, this trend led to a period of high population growth.

The last major shock came in the late 1980s, as Ryŏ Ho-jun's government upended the previous period of stability under Sim Jin-hwan. The Menghean famine of 1985-87 brought population growth to a halt, even leading to a slight population decline in 1987. The official estimate, as recognized by the Menghean Socialist Party, places the death toll from the Ryŏ Ho-jun famine at 24.6 million, or 6.5% of the total population at the time. Independent studies suggest that the 24.6 million count is likely an overestimate, as it does not distinguish between infant deaths and foregone births, though the impact of the famine years on Menghe's population pyramid is nevertheless sharply visible.

After the famine's end, Menghe experienced a second, smaller "baby boom," with total fertility rates averaging 2.68 between 1988 and 1998. Some scholars argue that this boom had a major impact on Menghe's sustained economic development in the late 2010s, as the post-famine generation reached working age. From 1990 onward, fertility rates continued to decline, eventually falling below replacement levels. Life expectancy, however, has continued to climb, with reductions in mortality rate at every age.

Censuses in Menghe

Imperial Menghe, from the 2nd century BCE onward, had a relatively bureaucratized government by the standards of its time, and it was among the first countries to conduct thorough census counts across a large territory. These counts required a high level of state capacity, and were usually conducted on demand at irregular intervals, but they proved useful in organizing tax collection, conscription, and administration.

Menghe resumed nationwide censuses after a period of division in the Three States Period, but on an irregular, on-demand basis. The first post-unification census was conducted in 1904, and the second in mid-1918. The Greater Menghean Empire switched to regular 5-year censuses conducted on January 1st, and conducted three such censuses during its existence: one in 1930, one in 1935, and one in 1940. Due to the chaos of the Pan-Septentrion War, no census was taken in 1945, when a substantial portion of Menghe's territory was already under foreign control. The Republic of Menghe conducted only one census, in 1955.

The Democratic People's Republic of Menghe conducted a nationwide census on January 1st, 1967, to assess its newly-controlled territory. It conducted another ten years later in 1977, and a third in 1982. A 1987 census was scheduled but not conducted, due to political chaos, social unrest, and an effort by the government to conceal the extent of the ongoing famine.

The Socialist Republic of Menghe conducted a belated census in 1990, and used it as the basis for estimating the death toll from the 1985-87 famine. Since then, the Socialist government has held regular censuses every 10 years, shortening the duration to every 5 years in 2010. These censuses, like most prior ones, have been conducted on January 1st of their scheduled year, and thus reflect the state of the population at the end of the preceding year.

Population pyramids

The diagrams below show the composition of Menghe's population by age and sex, during years in which censuses were conducted.

Generational patterns

Wi Yŏng-su, a prominent Menghean sociologist, published an influential book in 2009 claiming to identify four broad generational groups in Menghean society. He termed these the War Generation, the Hardship Generation, the Communist Generation, and the Yusin Generation, based on the major social changes that occurred during their coming-of-age. The cutoff points between generations are only indicative, and other scholars have used more precise cutoffs, such as the Decembrist Revolution; yet even at two-decade marks, Wi and other scholars found empirical evidence that these generations differ in their social and political values.

Fighting generation

The Fighting generation (Menghean: 전투 세대 / 戰鬪世代, Jŏntu Sedae) refers to people born before 1940. Men of this generation formed the backbone of the Imperial Menghean Army during the Pan-Septentrion War, and women were mobilized for labor and militia duty on the home front. Those at the tail end of this generation, who were too young to fight, were still educated in the Greater Menghean Empire's primary schools, which stressed cultural superiority, ethnic nationalism, and supreme loyalty to the state. Even decades later, members of this generation tend to be more conservative and more nationalistic, though the horrors of war also produced a number of pacfists.

Hardship generation

The Hardship generation (고난 세대 / 苦難世代, Gonan Sedae) refers to people born between 1940 and 1960, during the end of the Pan-Septentrion War, the Allied occupation of Menghe, and the Republic of Menghe collaborationist government. During this period, strategic bombing and forced relocation sent millions of people back to the countryside, and most measures of social well-being, including life expectancy, declined. Those who survived this era strongly supported the Communist government, having experienced severe hardship before its ascent to power, yet still tend to hold materialist and authoritarian political views.

Communist generation

The Communist generation (공산 세대 / 共産世代, Gongsan Sedae) refers to people born between 1960 and 1980. This generation was raised under the Democratic People's Republic of Menghe and educated in its schooling system, and came of age at the height of Menghe's planned economy. Members of this generation are not necessarily communist by ideology - as adults, they lived through the Ryŏ Ho-jun famine - but according to Wi's surveys, they express higher support for income equality, social welfare, and guaranteed employment, values imprinted by the socialist system.

Yusin generation

The Yusin generation (유신 세대 / 維新世代, Yusin Sedae), named for the "Yusin" or "Restoration" reforms imposed by Choe Sŭng-min after the Decembrist Revolution, refers to people born between 1980 and 2000. The main focus of Wi's study, members of the Yusin generation were born under a second wave of poverty, hardship, and chaos, but came of age in the midst of the Menghean economic miracle. They tend to be more competitive and materialistic than their parents, yet they remain supportive of the Socialist regime, crediting it with the country's high growth. Members of the Yusin generation are also relatively nationalistic, for in addition to miraculous economic growth, they also experienced nationalist education, the Disciplined Society Campaign, and Menghe's ascent as a great power.

Post-Yusin generation

Since the publication of Wi Yŏng-su's four-generation model, both scholars and popular writers have speculated about the future of the generation born after 2000. Particularly in the large coastal cities, many members of this generation grew up under conditions of economic prosperity, and are less likely to buy into the authoritarian bargain where individual rights are traded away for stability and growth. A study conducted in 2019 found that Mengheans between the ages of 18 and 24 are more likely to report that freedom is an intrinsically important virtue, and less likely to express support for the ruling Socialist Party. Some Menghean activists have even rejected the label "post-Yusin generation" in favor of Minju Sedae, or "Democracy Generation," in the hopes that they will eventually bring about democratic reforms.