Vesperian independence referendum, 2015
| Vesperian Independence Referendum 27 February 2015 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Borde Vesperum vara ett självständigt land? Should Vesperia be an independent country? | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Note: Saturation of colour denotes strength of vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Yes
No
A referendum on whether Vesperia should be an independent country took place on Friday 27 February 2015.
The independence referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or "No", was "Should Vesperia be an independent country?". The "No" side won, with 6,782,559 (50.29%) voting against independence and 6,705,622 (49.71%) voting in favour. The turnout of 93.34% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in Arkiasis since the introduction of universal suffrage.
The Referendum Bill, setting out the arrangements for this referendum, was passed by the Vesperian Parliament on 6 January, 2015. Along with the Vesperian People's Party, the Centre Party, the Greens, the Socialist Party and the Workers' Party also voted in favour of the bill passing Parliament with a vote of 212-171 in favour of the referendum. To pass, the independence proposal required a simple majority. With some exceptions, all Arkaisian citizens resident in Vesperia aged 16 or over could vote, a total of 14.4 million people.
The principal issues in the referendum were economic policy, taxation, cultural and linguistic differences, defence arrangements, continued relations with Arkiasis and membership of supranational organizations, particularly the Northern Sea Defense Organization.
Background
Formation of Arkiasis
The Kingdom of Borealia and the Kingdom of Vesperia were established as independent countries during the Middle Ages. Both in near-constant conflict with each other as they both sought to hold the peninsula. In 1684, the two monarchies entered a personal union when Eric III of Vesperia also became Eric I of Borealia. Eventually, Vesperia and Boralia united to form the Kingdom of Arkiasia in 1804, factors in favour of union being, on the Vesperian side, the economic problems caused by several brutal winters resulting in famine, and on the Borealian, securing the Gustavian line of succession.
Republic of Arkiasia and subsequent Coup d'état
In the Arkiasia Revolution of 1848, the monarchy of Arkiasia was toppled and a Republic was subsequently put in place. However in 1852, Robert Douglas, the 2nd President of Arkiasia, launched a coup d'état dissolving the National Assembly and establishing himself as King the following year.
Robert Douglas proceeded to remove the rights of Vesperians to practise their religion and to speak their language. Schools in Vesperia were all forced to teach all lessons in english and the Church of Vesperia was subject to punitive taxes followed by the destruction of many churches.
Republic of Arkiasis
Following the Arkiasia Revolution of 1895, Vesperia was offered more autonomy and over its internal matters in order to take into account cultural differences and protect linguistic minorities. Moreover the government wanted to prevent Vesperian secession.
2014 VPP administration
The Vesperian People's Party (Folkpartiet Vesperum) became the minority government of the Vesperian Provincial Parliament after winning a plurality of seats in the 2014 Vesperian election. The party who favoured Vesperian independence quickly set out a bill to hold a independence referendum which was subsequently passed on 6 January 2015.
Unity Rally
On 25 February, several pro-unity activists organized the Unity Rally in order to gather support for the no side 2 days before the election. The rally attracted 200,000 Arkiasians from in and outside Vesperia who came to celebrate a united Arkiasis, and plead with Vesperians to vote "No" in the referendum, 1995. Held at Mitteren Square, it was Vesperia's biggest rally related to the referendum.
Administration
Eligibility
The following people are entitled to vote in the referendum:
- Arkiasian citizen who are resident in Vesperia
- Members of Parliament who were resident in Vesperia
- Service personnel/government officials serving in Arkiasis or overseas with the Arkiasis Armed Forces or the Government of Arkiasis who are registered to vote in Vesperia.
A clause allowing Vesperians who live outside of Vesperia (including the 900,000 Vesperians who reside in other area of Arkiasis) to vote was removed due to complexity and administrative issues. The voting age has also been reduced from 18 to 16, as it is VPP policy to reduce the voting age for all elections in Vesperia.
Legality
On 5 February, the Federal Constitutional Court ffirmed the legality of the Vesperia independence referendum and set out the details of the referendum.
On 9 February, the federal government and the Vesperian government signed an agreement finalizing the details of the referendum and authorizing the temporary transfer of legal authority to Vesperia to hold, organise and conduct the referendum.
Campaign
The two campagins include "Yes Vesperia" who support independence and "Stronger United" who oppose independence.
The "Yes Vesperia" campaign received ₵2.5 million in donations while "Stronger United" has received ₵2.1 million.
The no campaign is supported by the Labour Party, Progressive Party, Conservative Party, Liberal Party, Christian Democratic Union, Independence Party and National Front while the yes campaign is supported by the Vesperian People's Party, Centre Party, Greens, Socialist Party and the Workers' Party.
Issues
Taxation
Vesperia has autonomy over many government services like education and pays for them itself, but still pays the same rate of federal tax as the other provinces. As a result, the region is a net contributor to the Arkiasian government's coffers despite having a GDP per capita that is slightly below the Arkiasian average. This has resulted in Vesperia having the highest Provincial debt ratio in Arkiasis and one of the highest rates of taxation in all of Esquarium.
Troy Brown has already stated that a bill is being proposed that will introduce reforms to the federal tax code that will "make sure that the people of Vesperia will pay their fair share, and not anymore than they have to."
Language & Culture
Vesperia is the only Province in Arkiasis where English is not the majority language, and as a result justifications for Vesperia's independence are historically ethno-nationalistic in tendency, claiming that the unique culture and Vesperian-speaking majority (80% of the provincial population) are threatened with assimilation by either the rest of Arkiasis or by Anglophone culture more generally, and that the best way to preserve language, identity and culture is via the creation of an independent political entity.
Nine of the other Arkiasian provinces are overwhelmingly (greater than 90%) English-speaking, while Eldmark, Aurora and Tidvand are officially bilingual and about one-third to two-thirds Vesperian. And knowledge of Vesperian among non-Vesperian Arkiasians remains low with only 39% stating they know Vesperian "well" while 22% state they "don't know it at all".
NOSDO and Foreign Relations
The Vesperian People's Party has had a long-standing policy of opposition in principle to NOSDO membership. The primary reason for the opposition is due to the recent controvesy regarding the membership of Nevanmaa in NOSDO. Premier Patrik Lagerqvist stated "Being in an alliance with Nevanmaa is an affront to basic decency. An independent Vesperia will refuse to work with a nation that doesn't allow 50% of its population to vote and considers people of colour to be subhuman. The fact that Leighton continues to work with Nevanmaa is a complete disgrace." 87% of Vesperians are opposed to Nevan membership in NOSDO, while a smaller 64% are opposed to Arkiasian membership in NOSDO. The VPP has stated they will adopt a neutral foreign policy.
Opponents mention that Arkiasis' continued membership in NOSDO is needed in order for peace to be maintained in northwestern Esquarium. "We have much closer relations to NOSDO nations like Vyvland, Brittanno and Geadland than Nevanmaa. And as NOSDO's largest liberal democracy we need to stay committed to our membership. If we leave then a snowball effect might happen and the alliance might crumble leaving northwestern Esquarium weak and vulnerable. It's Arkiasis' responsibility as a prosperous nation to be a force for good in the world."
Economy
Vesperia's GDP per capita is slightly lower than the Arkiasian average, and along with a large debt, Vesperia's credit rating is only A compared to the AAA rating of Arkiasis. Vesperia continues to feel the effects of the recession as unemployment is above the national average and GDP growth is the slowest among all Arkiasian provinces.
Opponents have stated that the economic prospects after a "yes" vote are "incomprehensible". Due to Vesperia's smaller economy, economists predict that in the first few years of independence, Vesperia would experience a massive recession. Nearly 70% of all exports are sold to the rest of Arkiasis, which would have severe effects in the event of Vesperian independence. Economists also predict that a separate Vesperian currency would be weak and act as a deterrent to trade with the country it has split from. And even with a free trade agreement, it is estimated it would cost Arkiasian business ₵5 billion annually in transaction charges when trading with an independent Vesperia, further deterring trade.
The pro-independence side however states that the Arkiasian Credit leaves Vesperia shackled with a currency whose exchange and interest rates does not suit the current economic climate of Vesperia. The rising levels of inequality in Arkiasis have also been cited as a concern by the VPP. Since the mid-1980s, Arkiasis has had the fastest growth in inequality of any developed nation. According to Jonas Ahlström, an MPP for the Vesperian People's Party, "The rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer. We are abandoning our egalitarian values. Arkiasis is starting to look like Luziyca." Nevertheless, Arkiasis remains far more egalitarian than most nations.
Governance and Relations with Leighton
Vesperia has long been a left-wing bastion. The Labour Party has continuously been the largest party in Vesperia for over 80 years. Economic reforms in the 1980s left many Vesperians feeling short-changed. Since then, Vesperian voters have gradually shifted away from the Leighton establishment towards separatist parties. This culminated in December with the Vesperian People's Party winning a majority in the provincial election. The current centre-right national government of Troy Brown is unpopular in the province, and Vesperian voters have also been searching for alternatives to the centre-left Labour Party who have traditionally dominated the province.
Democracy
The pro-independence campaign states that a "democratic deficit" exists in Vesperia, which has been used to refer to the period between the 1978 and 1990 general elections, during which the Labour Party held a majority of Vesperian seats but the Liberal Party governed the whole of Arkiasis. Viktoria Oliversson, an MPP for the Vesperian People's Party stated that instances such as this amounted to a lack of democracy, and that "the people who live and work in Vesperia are the people most likely to make the right choices for Vesperia." The Vesperian Government claims that an independent Vesperia should have a written constitution which "expresses our values, embeds the rights of our citizens and sets out clearly how our institutions of state interact with each other and serve the people".
Opinion Polling
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb | Independence Referendum held | |||||
| 25-26 Fed | Pollitic | 996 | 47% | 48% | 5% | 1% |
| 25-26 Fed | The Examiner | 1400 | 47% | 49% | 4% | 2% |
| 25 Feb | Unity Rally held | |||||
| 23-24 Fed | Arkiasis Broadcasting Corporation | 1002 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied |
| 20-22 Fed | Ålstad-Posten | 1997 | 47% | 48% | 5% | 1% |
| 12-13 Feb | The Examiner | 1022 | 48% | 46% | 6% | 2% |
| 3-5 Feb | Arkiasis Broadcasting Corporation | 2004 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% |
| 26-27 Jan | Pollitic | 1003 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% |
| 16-18 Jan | Ålstad-Posten | 2136 | 44% | 46% | 10% | 2% |
| 10-11 Jan | Pollitic | 982 | 45% | 42% | 13% | 3% |
| 6-7 Jan | Arkiasis Broadcasting Corporation | 1026 | 41% | 37% | 22% | 4% |
| 6 Jan | Passage of Referendum Bill | |||||
Results
Independence was narrowly rejected by Vesperians with with 6,782,559 (50.29%) voting against independence and 6,705,622 (49.71%) voting in favour.
Prime Minister Troy Brown said he was delighted that Arkiasis would remain together and that commitments on extra devolution powers would be honoured "in full".
While Premier said Patrik Lagerqvist "We will make sure that Leighton follows through on their promise to grant further powers to Vesperia."
| No: 6,782,559 (50.29%) |
Yes: 6,705,622 (49.71%) | ||
| ▲ | |||
International Reaction
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- Template:Country data Fjalland: Closely after the results were announced, the minister of foreign affairs of Fjalland lamented the fact that the Vesperians could not achieve self-determination and compared the outcome of the election as "two wolves and a sheep voting on what's for dinner."
- Template:Country data Francilie: Immediately after the results were announced, the Francesian Prime Minister Elise Monfort-Valderbre said that she "jubilates seeing the independence referendums failing around the world, showing separatists that their people don't follow them". She said that Francilie shall continue its good relations with Arkiasis.
- Template:Country data Geadland: On 24 February, Prime Minister Efa Nordland called for Vesperians to vote against independence, arguing that doing so would "send a positive message to the world, that a multinational democracy is not one that is doomed to collapse." A few Geadish media sources, including Fulksrekorden and The Liberal, also backed a 'No' vote. The day after the referendum, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that "The outcome was fair and the decision was, in our view, a wise one."
- Template:Country data North Cortoguay: The regional People’s Union-Popular Movement government praised the referendum bill and announced plans to introduce a similar bill, which was passed after the region’s Cortes reconvened on 2 March 2015. After the results were released, Governor Ana María Santana López stated that "it is sad that the Vesperian people will not see the birth of their own nation. The people of North Cortoguay are united in solidarity with the people of Vesperia until both of our nations are free at last."
- File:Flag of Nevanmaa.png Nevanmaa: After the results were published, Prime Minister Tuomas Hyvärinen congratulated his counterpart, Arkiasian Prime minister Troy Brown and stated that "Nevanmaa is glad to see that unity prevailed over separatism".
