Cetus Contingency

The Cetus Contingency is a Syaran Military operation plan that details how the Syaran Commonality Armed Forces would react to the outbreak of hostilities with a foreign power beyond Syara's immediate borders. The plan largely centers around employing Syara's air, naval, and missiles forces to deny enemy naval forces access to the Sundering and Sanguine Seas, while employing Syaran anti-ship munitions and air power to destroy hostile naval and air forces attempting to attack the Commonality.

Origin

Sometime after the Refusal War, and following the re-affirmation of the Treaty of Chryse with Górska and the singing of the 1993 Commonality-Principality Border Agreement with Ruvelka, the Government of Syara shifted strategic war planning away from hostilities with Syara's geographic neighbors to international powers beyond Syara's borders. Drawn up with the intention of preventing foreign military powers from taking advantage of Syara's post-civil war reconstruction, Cetus Contingency focused on actions that would be taken by the Commonality Air Force and the Syaran Commonality Navy to deny hostile naval and air forces access to the Sundering and Sanguine Seas in and around Syara. In many ways Cetus is considered an update to the Republic-era Nereus Plan, a strategic defensive plan that focused on countering hostile naval forces rather than threats on the Siduri continent.

The first iteration of Cetus is was published in 1995, with updates made as increased access to weapons and technological development occurred. Cetus was largely sidelined following the Imerti Conflict and Zemplen War, but returned to strategic prominence after the Midsummer War, with the most recent modification being made in 2021.

Strategy

The Cetus Contingency operates under the assumption that the Commonality is at war with a foreign power that does not involve active participation by either Ruvelka or Górska, the only two nations Syara shared a direct border with. Different versions of the Cetus Contingency pertain to involvement of Syara's ally Æþurheim, but also contain scenarios that exclude Æþurian involvement. The plan also operates under the assumption that an internationally backed agreement that prevents combat in the Sundering Sea, as was the case in Zemplen War, is not implemented.

The plan does not specify what potential adversary Syara is at war, but instead breaks down "scenario hostiles" based on the direction from which their forces approach; this can effectively be used as a stand in for specific nation's militaries. In effect, Cetus is designed with countries capable of projecting significant naval power, to include Acrea, Cacerta, Ossoria, and Tennai, all of whom posses aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. Exact breakdowns of operational details depend on the specific nation in question, which affect targeting priorities, force deployment, and weapons allocation.

For hostilities in the Sundering Sea, Cetus prioritizes the reinforcement of the Chryse Regional Command, maximizing Syaran troops presence on the island in accordance with the Treaty of Chryse. Cetus further urges that negotiations be conducted with the government of Górska to allow for Syaran troop levels to exceed those specified in the treaty. The desired end state is to reinforce the island with an additional brigade each of air defense units and coastal defense forces consisting of mobile surface-to-air missile launchers and mobile anti-ship missile batteries.

Because of the limited space, and thus maneuverability, offered by the Sundering Sea, the "mouth" of the Divide is to be utilized as a choke point through which enemy vessels could be sunk before approaching Syara. Because the Aleitian Sea is covered entirely by the range of Syaran anti-ship missiles fired by land, sea, and air platforms, it is not expected that any major push would be made through the Sundering to reach Syara.

Threats from the Nuandan Ocean are considered both most feasible strategically and also more threatening, owing to a lack of natural geographic barriers to form defensive measures around. Strategic defense from the Nuandan thus relies heavily on the Æþurian-Syaran underwater surveillance system that runs from southern Syara through the island of Ærick, to the western coast of Æþurheim. The "Sanguine Line" as it is sometimes called exists to prevent the infiltration of submarines into the Sanguine Sea and Syaran coastal waters.

The surface fleet of the Syaran Commonality Navy is expected to play a supporting role in potential conflict scenarios; it is generally assumed that any significant effort against Syara would involve naval forces equal in strength or superior to the Syaran fleet, resulting in two possibilities. First, the Syaran fleet operates in close conjunction with Syaran Naval Aviation would be expected to conduct interdiction and fleet assault operations against hostile naval forces, with the intention of preventing the enemy from launching attacks on Syaran soil. In the event of the surface fleet being significantly outclassed in size or firepower, the fleet would adopt a "fleet-in-being" strategy, relegating most offensive operations to naval aviation and the Commonality Air Force while the fleet provides support for littoral operations and patrolling.

In most situations, the primary offensive means by which the SCAF would retaliate against hostile naval forces would fall to Syaran Naval Aviation and anti-ship missile launch platforms. Syaran Naval Aviation is centered around 48 Ceyx bombers, which can carry a variety of anti-ship missiles. Experience in the Refusal War highlighted the need for larger, powerful missiles capable of destroying capital ships including the carriers, battleships, and missile cruisers fielded by the Royal Ossorian Navy, Royal Acrean Navy, and Cacertian Royal Navy. As a result the Commonality began development of more powerful anti-ship missiles starting in the 1990s, coupled with training exercises centered on attacking large fleets of enemy warships. The first of these was the supersonic Embolon anti-ship missile, which underwent continuous development until 2015. It was followed by the development of the hyper-sonic XheKal and Periplous anti-ship missile.

With ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers the XheKal and Periplous are, when combined with Syaran Naval Aviation and the Commonality Air Force, are expected to provide the primary means by which the SCAF would engage and destroy hostile naval forces within the Nuandan Ocean. In the event that locations within the Nuandan are utilized as staging grounds for attacks on Syara, such as Hemar or the Andria Protectorate, it is expected that Syaran bombers would launch long-distance strikes against naval and air facilities as well. Defense of Syara's coastline itself would fall to Syara's arsenal of mobile anti-ship batteries, supported by air defense systems and active interdiction by the CAF and Naval Aviation.

The Cetus Contingency does not specify an expected end state, but does suggest that given Syara's strategic position along the Sundering Sea and the Nuandan Ocean, there is a strong likelihood that any war between Syara and a foreign military power would not remain limited to Syara and her aggressor for long. Cetus implicates that extended hostilities, namely the threat of damage to international trade and concern about the geopolitical ramifications of either a Syaran or aggressor victory, would compel previously uninvolved powers to become involved. While such matters are largely left up to the political sphere to resolve, Cetus stresses the destruction of primary surface combatants, namely carriers, as the primary means by which Syara could achieve a strategic victory in the short term. Given the distance between Syara and the most significant naval powers of Tyran, Cetus estimates that destruction of multiple large capital ships would provide the necessary political and military capital to compel the hostile power to sue for peace.