2021 Estmerish general election

2021 Estmerish general election

27 May 2021
All 600 seats in the Chamber of Commons 301 seats needed for a majority
Leader Reginald Wilton-Smyth Zoe Halivar Esther Bennett Party SDU SDCP Reform Leader since 23 April 2018 22 May 2016 11 October 2014 Leader's seat Newchurch and Harrendole Harbrough Hillside Tolbury Outer Last election 216 187 101 Current seats 215 184 99 Seats needed 86 117 202   Leader George Avery Sara Hall-Brookes (Lead Candidate) Aelfwin Stringer Party Estmere First Greens Party of the Swathish Leader since 11 August 2018 7 April 2015 15 August 2009 Leader's seat Bouley North East Tendersea Holdenshire Wilds Last election 35 29 15 Current seats 29 29 15 Seats needed 272 272 286
Incumbent Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth SDU

The 2021 Estmerish general election will be held on 27 May 2021. It is a snap election, called by Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth. All 600 Members of Parliament in the Chamber of Commons will be elected.

Following 2018, the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April 2021, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April. Campaigning will begin unofficially with the start of purdah on 18 April, but the campaign will officially begin with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April. The ruling Sotirian Democratic Union led by Wilton-Smyth, their coalition partners the Reform Party led by Esther Bennett and the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party under Zoe Halivar are considered the main parties running in the election.

Minor national parties running in the election includeEstmere First led by George Avery, the Greens led by Sara Hall-Brookes and Nathan Coutanche, and ESWI led by Ted Barnes, while relevant regionalist parties include the Party of the Swathish led by Aelfwin Stringer and the Aldman Democratic Alliance led by Annika Schröder.

Polling day is 27 May, and full results are likely to be announced 28 May after list votes have been taken into account.

Background

Gambled pensions scandal

Main article: Estmerish missing pensions scandal

Mortimer's leadership challenge

Main article: 2021 Sotirian Democratic Union leadership election

Parties

Main article: List of political parties in Estmere

At the end of the 2018 parliament, eight political parties had representation in the Chamber of Commons. The three largest parties in Estmere are the Sotirian Democratic Union, the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party and the Reform Party, together comprising just under 85% of the seats in the Chamber, and it is widely expected that these parties will come out on top after the election. They are also the only parties to be contesting every constituency seat as well as the list vote.

Other relevant national parties include Estmere First, the Greens and the Estmerish Section of the Workers' International. Smaller, newer parties contesting a national election for the first time include the Vox Estmere, future.es and the Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party. Two regionalist parties, the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, are contesting a select number of constituency seats based on the distribution of Swathish and Aldman speakers respectively.

Name		Ideology	Leader(s)	2018 general election result			Seats at dissolution
				Votes (%)		Seats
				Constituency	Party list
	Sotirian Democratic Union	Conservatism Sotirian democracy Economic liberalism	Reginald Wilton-Smyth		35.6	216 / 600	215 / 600
	Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Social democracy Co-operatism Democratic socialism Pro-Eucleanism	Zoe Halivar		30.9	187 / 600	184 / 600
	Reform Party	Social liberalism Progressivism Pro-Eucleanism	Esther Bennett		16.7	101 / 600	99 / 600
	Estmere First	Right-wing populism Estmerish nationalism Euclosceptism	George Avery		5.8	35 / 600	29 / 600
	Greens	Green politics Progressivism Pro-Eucleanism	Sara Hall-Brookes Nathan Coutanche		4.9	29 / 600	29 / 600
	Party of the Swathish	Swathish nationalism Social democracy Civic nationalism Regionalism	Aelfwin Stringer		2.6	15 / 600	15 / 600
	Estmerish Section of the Workers' International	Council socialism Anti-capitalism Soft-Euclosceptism	Ted Barnes		2.5	15 / 600	14 / 600
	Aldman Democratic Alliance	Aldman regionalism Social liberalism Civic nationalism	Annika Schröder		0.4	2 / 600	2 / 600
	Vox Estmere	Euclofederalism Social liberalism	Marcello Schipani Kat Rodham	–	–	Did not exist	0 / 600
	future.es	Future politics E-democracy	Nate Foreman	–	–	Did not exist	0 / 600
	Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party	Agrarianism Pensioners' interests	Dorris Tippery	–	–	Did not exist	0 / 600

Opinion polling

Opinion polls were conducted throughout the period following the last election, by a number of polling organisations, most of which are members of the Estmerish Opinion Polling Organisation. Below are two graphs showing opinion poll result average trendline for the general election. The first includes all parties which won list seat in the last election, while the second focuses on minor parties.

Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for parties from the current Parliament.

Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for minor parties.