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2021 Estmerish general election

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2021 Estmerish general election

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All 600 seats in the Chamber of Commons
301 seats needed for a majority
Turnout30,822,889 (72.85%; Increase 2.4 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
  Official portrait of Lisa Nandy crop 2.jpg Official portrait of Mr David Davis crop 2.jpg Kirsty Williams AM (28092338171) (cropped).jpg
Leader Zoe Halivar Reginald Wilton-Smyth Esther Bennett
Party PSD SDU Reform
Leader since 22 May 2016 23 April 2018 11 October 2014
Leader's seat Harbrough Hillside Newchurch and Harrendole Tolbury Outer
Last election 187 216 101
Seats before 184 215 99
Seats won 253 199 44
Seat change Increase66 Decrease17 Decrease57
Constituency vote 13,805,572 10,529,099 2,780,225
% and swing 44.79% Increase11.09% 34.16% Decrease2.64% 9.02% Decrease9.61%
Party vote 12,729,101 10,032,054 2,185,905
% and swing 41.30% Increase10.40% 32.55% Decrease3.05% 7.09% Decrease6.78%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Molly Scott Cato, 2016 (cropped).jpg
Richard Burgon, 2020 Labour Party deputy leadership election hustings, Bristol.jpg
Eleanor Laing, MP for Epping Forest.jpg
Leader Sara Hall-Brookes
(Lead Candidate)
Ted Barnes Dorris Tippery
Party Greens Left Centre
Leader since 7 April 2015 17 January 2019 3 January 2021
Leader's seat Tendersea Batterly and Nunling List
Last election 29 15 0
Seats before 29 14 0
Seats won 40 21 14
Seat change Increase11 Increase6 Increase14
Constituency vote 1,417,853 610,293 332,887
% and swing 4.60% Increase0.70% 1.98% Decrease0.02% 1.08% Increase1.08%
Party vote 2,116,405 1,156,376 793,954
% and swing 6.87% Increase1.97% 3.75% Increase1.25% 2.58% Increase2.58%

Prime Minister before election

Reginald Wilton-Smyth

Prime Minister after election

Zoe Halivar

The 2021 Estmerish general election was held on 27 May 2021. It was a snap election, called for by Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth on 14 April with the intention of providing clarity following the gambled pensions scandal[1]. All 600 Members of Parliament in the Chamber of Commons were elected. Official results were released on 29 May[2].

Following 2018, the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April[1]. Campaigning unofficially began with the start of purdah on 18 April, but the campaign officially began with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April[3]. Pensions, social security and housing were considered major issues in the campaign, with foreign and social policy also taking prominence in response to LGBT-free zones in Etruria[4]. Age and opinion of leaders were considered to impact voting intention in the campaign[5]. The campaign was also notable for the prominent role that foreign leaders played in the campaign, with Pink Wave leaders endorsing and campaigning for Halivar and her party, possibly to capitalise on her momentum for their own electoral tests[6], in what has been described as the federalisation of EC politics[7].

The opposition Progressive Social Democrats emerged from the election as the largest party, and Zoe Halivar announced her intention to form a minority government with support from smaller progressive parties[8]. The results were the best for the social democratic left since the 1973 election, and the worst for the Reform Party since its foundation in 1980, and saw leader Esther Bennett lose her constituency seat. The governing Sotirian Democratic Union fell back, but retained a sizable vote share and attempted to form a government. The Greens saw a rise in their vote share, challenging Reform for third-largest party. Three new parties, Vox Estmere, and the Centre Party, won seats in Parliament for the first time.

Voter turnout in the election was 72.85%, up 2.4% since the last election, and the highest for a national election since 1999. The PSD was seen to have reversed long-term trends by supplanting Reform as the major centre-left party, doing so by broadening its appeal and winning voters in suburban areas with a focus on social liberalism and competence[8].


The previous 2018 election saw the governing Sotirian Democratic Union gain seats, with newly-elected leader Reginald Wilton-Smyth seen to have breathed new life into the party. The party continued their coalition deal with the Reform Party under Esther Bennett, but the opposition Progressive Social Democrats under Zoe Halivar also advanced in the election, emerging stronger than before.

Gambled pensions scandal

News of the gambled pensions scandal broke on 8 February 2021, when Penny Dorchester of the Economic Review published an article which relayed information from an anynomous whistleblower from the Treasury, revealing that government records showed discrepencies between annual pensions contributions and the overall ringfenced pension pot, suggesting that a quarter of the fund was missing[9]. Both the Review[10] and Leader of the Opposition Zoe Halivar[11] asked the Prime Minister where the money was, with Halivar raising the issue in Prime Minister's Questions, and the PSD leader called for a transparent public investigation[12]. The Prime Minister initially dismissed the claims as "baseless yellow journalism".

On 24 February 2021 The Chartist reported that another whistleblower had contacted them, revealing that the pensions had been "gambled" in a risky stock market investment against the advice of the Treasury. The money had been invested with Frobisher-Green Management, which defaulted on its debts earlier in the month. At least €3.5 billion had been lost in the investment[13]. Polls showed that the public did not believe that the claims were "baseless", as the PM had suggested. On 25 February, in response to the allegations, the government released a statement on the scandal, which was seen as underwhelming, urging the public not to panic and to trust in the process[14][15]. Halivar once again called for an investigation and asserted that public trust was diminishing[16].

Mortimer's leadership challenge

On 9 March, Jon Mortimer resigned as Secretary of State for Health and Social Affairs in opposition to Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal[17]. Supported by a number of SDU grandees[18], Mortimer lodged a formal leadership challenge with the SDU organising committee on 14 March[19], which led to a closed leadership election beginning on 16 March between Mortimer and Wilton-Smyth. Wilton-Smyth narrowly won the contest on 29 March, but a majority of SDU federal MPs voted for Mortimer, which was seen as Wilton-Smyth having lost their confidence[20].

Though Wilton-Smyth won the contest, it was seen to have damaged his government. He was seen to have lost the support of his backbenchers, and his coalition partners were reportedly seeking out a new coalition deal with the opposition under Halivar[21]. Cabinet unity had also been damaged during the contest[22]. The government therefore announced late in the evening on 13 April that they would be making an announcement the day after[23], and it was then that Wilton-Smyth called for a snap general election on 14 April, reportedly aiming to catch the opposition off-guard[1]. Parliament voted in favour of a snap election on 15 April.

Electoral system

Elections to the Chamber of Commons use the Additional Member System, or AMS for short. AMS is a mixed system that is semi-proportional. Voters have two votes. One vote for a local constituency, and one vote for their preferred party in a party list for each constituent entity. List seats are allocated through the Boeri method, with the winners of the constituency seats taken into account.

To be eligible for list seats, parties must pass an electoral threshold of 2.5% of the vote in any of the constituent entities.

There are 600 total elected members of the Chamber. Of these, 400 members are elected through first-past-the-post constituency seats, with the remaining 200 members elected through party list.

301 seats are required for a majority. The party that recieves the most votes usually forms the government, but due to the proportional nature of the system it is unlikely for a single party to recieve a majority on its own. As such, coalition governments and minority government are common, and it is possible for the largest party to be excluded from government.

The 2021 election will use the constituency boundaries first drawn for the 2012 general election. This will be the fourth general election to use these constituency boundaries. The constituencies are overdue for a boundary review, with new boundaries legally-required before 2022, and so it is likely this will be the last general election to use these constituency boundaries.

Voting eligibility

In order to vote in the election, voters had to meet the criteria to be considered eligible, and register to vote before midnight 13 May, two weeks prior to polling day. Eligible voters had to be;

  • aged 18 or older on polling day
  • an Estmerish or Euclean Community citizen
  • permanently resident in Estmere, or owning property in Estmere
  • not excluded due to legal reasons, such as;

Voters could be registered to multiple constituencies through multiple residences, but can only vote in one constituency. Overseas voters vote as if living at their last Estmerish address.


Key dates in the election are listed below:

14 April 2021 Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth announced his intention to hold a snap election[1]
15 April 2021 Bill to dissolve Parliament for an early election passes the Chamber of Commons
18 April 2021 Purdah begins[1]
25 April 2021 Parliament is officially dissolved for the election by President Alice Roberts[3]
25 April 2021 Campaigning officialy begins[3]
27 April 2021 First televised debate[24]
29 April 2021 Deadline for party list nominations
30 April 2021 Deadline for constituency candidate nominations
12 May 2021 Last day to register to vote
27 May 2021 Polling day
28 May 2021 Preliminary election results announced[1]
29 May 2021 Official election results announced[2]
3 June 2021 First meeting of the next Parliament


At the end of the 2018 parliament, eight political parties had representation in the Chamber of Commons. The three largest parties in Estmere are the Sotirian Democratic Union, the Progressive Social Democrats and the Reform Party, together comprising just under 85% of the seats in the Chamber, and it is widely expected that these parties will come out on top after the election.

Other relevant national parties include Estmere First, the Greens and the Left Party, all of which currently have Parliamentary representation. A number of smaller, newer parties are also contesting a national election for the first time, including Vox Estmere, and the Centre Party. Two regionalist parties, the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, are contesting a select number of constituency seats based on the distribution of Swathish and Aldman speakers respectively.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2018 general election result Seats at dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Constituency Party list
Sotirian Democratic Union Conservatism
Sotirian democracy
Reginald Wilton-Smyth 36.8 35.6
216 / 600
215 / 600
Progressive Social Democrats Social democracy
Zoe Halivar 33.7 30.9
187 / 600
184 / 600
Reform Party Liberalism
Social liberalism
Esther Bennett 15.8 16.7
101 / 600
99 / 600
Estmere First Right-wing populism
Estmerish nationalism
George Avery 4.3 5.8
35 / 600
29 / 600
Greens Green politics
Sara Hall-Brookes
Nathan Coutanche
3.9 4.9
29 / 600
29 / 600
Party of the Swathish Swathish nationalism
Social democracy
Ạlfvynn Striġder 2.5 2.6
15 / 600
15 / 600
Left Party Left-wing populism
Ted Barnes 2.0 2.5
15 / 600
14 / 600
Aldman Democratic Alliance Aldman regionalism
Social liberalism
Annika Schröder 0.4 0.4
2 / 600
2 / 600
Vox Estmere Euclofederalism
Social liberalism
Marcello Schipani
Kat Rodham
Did not exist
0 / 600 Future politics
Nate Foreman Did not exist
0 / 600
Centre Party Pensioners' interests
Dorris Tippery Did not exist
0 / 600


A PSD rally in Bouley in April. Rallies are common in Estmerish election campaigns.

The campaign officially began on 25 April[3], but some 'light' campaigning had started as soon as purdah began on 18 April[1].

Reform and Estmere First both launched their campaigns on 26 April, in Colton and St Richards respectively. The Reform Party focused the launch of their campaign on their "moderating influence" on the SDU-led coalition, and pointed to a number of government successes in departments headed by their ministers. Estmere First started their campaign with a pledge to reduce net immigration to 0%[25].

The first television debate between party leaders was held on 27 April, hosted by EBS News, and subject to EBS broadcasting regulations. Ạlfvynn Striġder of the Party of the Swathish criticised the regulations as "unfair" to regionalist parties. The debate was described as "messy", and polls showed that no party leader was considered to have won the debate by a majority of voters. Halivar was rated marginally ahead of the other candidates[24].

Most major parties launched their official campaigns in the last week of April. The PSD officially launched their campaign on 29 April, promising to resolve the pensions scandal and tackle the housing crisis, in order to bring "real change" to Estmere[25]. The SDU, Greens and Left Party all launched their campaigns officially on 30 April. The SDU promised to continue the economic recovery and to mtaintain Estmere's presence abroad in support of liberal democracy. The Greens promised to tackle climate change, and the Left promised to end austerity[25].

Estmere First launched their manifesto on 15 May, with George Avery pledging to drop the Euclo, require companies to advertise jobs to Estmerish citizens first, enact a referendum on restoring the death penalty, prmote Estmerish pride in schools, stop foreign aid payments, end same-sex marriage, protect single-sex spaces and promote Estmere as a Sotirian country[26].

SDU manifesto cover.
PSD manifesto cover.

On 18 May, Reginald Wilton-Smyth released the SDU manifesto entitled Sensibility and Spine in Colton, revealing the party's platform[27]. Headline policy committments included a freeze on VAT, a comprehensive reform of inheritance tax, the capping of yearly net immigration at 75,000, a promise to 'foster national pride' in the Estmerish curriculum, and an opposition the 'federalisation' of the Euclean Community[28]. The manifesto also pledged to cap benefit payments, lift the tax bracket for poorer earners, protect Estmerish manufacturers, reform immigration law to allow for the deportation of immigrants who commit crimes, and opposition to Tsabaran refugee quotas. The party also promised to repay pensions lost in the pensions scandal[26].

Left Party leader Ted Barnes launched his party's campaign on the morning of 19 May, swiftly followed by Sara Hall-Brookes and Coutanche of the Greens in the afternoon[26]. Barnes committed his party to dropping the Euclo, abolishing private healthcare providers, introducing a wealth tax, withdrawing from the Tsabaran conflict, abolishing tuition fees, banning conversion therapy and tackling poor working conditions in the gig economy[26]. The party was criticised by Qadir Jabbar of TSWI for opposing involvement in the Tsabaran conflict, against a "functionalist and religious extremist state"[29].

The Green manifesto promised to fund a transition to green energy by raising the top rate of income tax, to introduce tax breaks for carbon netural companies, to legalise marijuana, to introduce an animal rights charter, to work for an EC-wide green new deal and to support self-identification for transgender and non-binary people. Hall-Brookes confirmed that she was their candidate for PM, with Coutanche being deputy PM candidate[26].

Zoe Halivar launched the PSD's manifesto in Sheaford on 20 May, pledging to "change the country for the better"[30]. The PSD manifesto claimed to emphasise equality, justice and competence, with a number of headline policies, including widespread infrastructure investment, a resolution to the pensions scandal which restored public pensions, a house building campaign to tackle the housing crisis, a committment 'cradle to grave' education and healthcare, prison reform, a reversal of local government cuts, and a number of social reforms including non-binary gender recogntion, increased accessibility and linguistic pluralism, including motions to make Aldman and Estmerish Sign Language national languages[26][31].

In their manifesto, launched 21 May, the Reform Party pledged to institute a plastic bag tax to tackle littering, to protect the squeezed middle with no income tax rises, to legalise marijuana, fully devolve the curriculum to the states, open grammar schools up to more student from low-income backgrounds, and ensure disabled people have access to job interviews[26].

The third EBS News debate on 21 May focused on social policy, and saw leaders from six major national parties answer public-submitted questions related to gender recognition, conversion therapy, disability rights, responding to prejudice, and tackling inequality. The debate became notable when the first question related to the LGBT-free zones in Etruria, with Wilton-Smyth's response seen negatively[4].

Voters' opinion of party leaders was identified as an increasingly important component of the campaign, seemingly in contrast with prior elections. Polling undertaken by Peer Sootland identified that Halivar was associated with more positive terms, such as "honest" and "competent", than Wilton-Smyth, who was more likely to be identified as "incompetent" or "smug"[5]. It has been suggested that a reasoning for this is Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal, which narrowed his appeal as he was no longer seen as economically competent[32]. Notably, perceptions of the party leaders correlated with age, with younger voters more positive of Halivar and older voters more positive of Wilton-Smyth, suggesting that age might be playing an important part in predicting voting intention[5].

Television debates

A number of televeision debates were held. For all debates held on any channel or service run by the Estmerish Broadcasting Service, broadcasting regulations dictated that party leaders were invited only if they were standing across the country and already maintained seats in Parliament or had consistently, for at least three contintuous months, polled higher than the electoral threshold of 2.5% in opinion poll averages. This meant that the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, despite holding seats in Parliament, were not eligible to take part.

2021 Estmerish general election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s) Subject  P  Present   S  Surrogate   NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee  INV Invited 
SDU PSD Reform Estmere First Greens Left PS Ref.
27 April EBS News Emily Ford Leaders' debate P
NI [24]
30 April NITV Paul Shanelly "Big three" leaders' debate P
3 May NITV Weald Richard Gunnarsson Debate in the Swathish language P
7 May EBS News Emily Ford Foreign policy P
11 May NITV d'Estme Julia Montfort Debate in the Flurian language P
13 May NITV Paul Shanelly Smaller party leaders' debate NI NI NI P
17 May EBS/University of Morwall Emily Ford Young voters P
21 May EBS News Emily Ford Social policy P
NI [4]
25 May NITV Paul Shanelly Leaders' debate P


A number of controversies emerged during the election campaign.

On 28 April, the Morwall SDU was criticised for posting misleaing lefleats, branded with the Greater Morwall Council logo, to potential voters, warning them of a 19.7% tax hike by the Council, supported by Zoe Halivar. The leaflets were reported on 30 April by the PSD for being "clearly fictious and fraudulent". The Electoral Processes Commission determined the leaflets to be fraudulent devices on 4 May, suspending the Morwall SDU's campaign and deducting 10% of their campaign chest in the form of a fine.

On 2 May, Alison Cooper, the PSD candidate for Tootle and Harwich, was reported to the Electoral Processes Commission by the SDU for alleged treating, after she posted an image on Chirper of a box of cookies being given to a voter. On 5 May the EPC declared that the incident did not qualify for action, as the cookies had been given to PSD members campaigning for the party, not independent voters.


A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.

Notably, a significant number of heads of governments of Euclean Community members nations associated with the Pink Wave made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, Zoe Halivar, and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics[7]. It has been suggested that part of the reason for this is that other ASE parties hope to capitalise on the momemtum of the PSD in a 'pink renaissance' to win electoral contests in their own countries[6].

Newspapers and magazines

National newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Chartist Progressive Social Democrats
Daily Times Sotirian Democratic Union
Economic Review Progressive Social Democrats Advised readers "vote for the anti-SDU candidate most likely to win in your constituency". Supported Zoe Halivar to become PM.
The Express Sotirian Democratic Union
Red Sunday Progressive Social Democrats
The Standard None Called for readers to vote for "moderate SDU candidates" to "push Mr Wilton-Smyth" to resign.
Witterite News Progressive Social Democrats

National political magazines

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
May Day Progressive Social Democrats Left-wing political magazine
The Nation Sotirian Democratic Union Right-wing political magazine

Other national publications

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
Cultural Review Progressive Social Democrats Weekly culture and arts magazine
Mode Progressive Social Democrats Weekly fashion magazine
Reverb Progressive Social Democrats Bi-monthly rock music magazine
Teen Mode Progressive Social Democrats Weekly fashion magazine aimed at young people
Wow! Progressive Social Democrats Bi-monthly pop music magazine

Local newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Damesbridge Herald Progressive Social Democrats Weekly newspaper covering Damesbridgeshire
The Dunwich Echo Progressive Social Democrats Daily newspaper covering Dunwich and the wider Dunwich County
Flurland News Sotirian Democratic Union Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Flurland
The Morwall Chronicle Progressive Social Democrats Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Greater Morwall
St Richards Times Sotirian Democratic Union Daily newspaper covering the city of St Richards
The Swathish National Party of the Swathish Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland
Wealdland Post Progressive Social Democrats Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland

Foreign newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Continental None Advised readers to "vote for pro-Euclean candidates [and] parties".
The Hamptonshire Post Progressive Social Democrats Swathish-language Alslandic newspaper.
The Norland Post Progressive Social Democrats Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.
Today Party of the Swathish Swathish-language version of Alslandic newspaper Hjoed.
Westhaven Journal None Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.


Aldman Democratic Alliance

Estmere First

Reform Party

Progressive Social Democrats

Sotirian Democratic Union

Organisations and other political parties

Aldman Democratic Alliance

Left Party

Trade unions


Centre Party

Progressive Social Democrats

Trade unions

Sotirian Democratic Union

Opinion polling

Opinion polls were conducted throughout the period following the last election, by a number of polling organisations, most of which are members of the Estmerish Opinion Polling Organisation. Below is a graph showing opinion poll result average trendline for the general election.

Exit poll

An exit poll was conducted by YouPoll on behalf of the News Association, and was published at 10pm after voting had finished. It predicted that the Progressive Social Democrats was the largest party, with the Sotirian Democratic Union and Reform Party coalition losing their overall majority[44]. The results were close to the exit poll, though it slightly over-estimated the SDU and Reform seats, and underestimated the PSD and new party (Vox,, Centre) seats[45][2].

Parties Seats Change
Progressive Social Democrats 250 Increase 63
Sotirian Democratic Union 205 Decrease 11
Reform Party 47 Decrease 54
Greens 36 Increase 7
Left Party 19 Increase 4
Party of the Swathish 13 Decrease 2
Centre Party 12 Increase 12
Vox Estmere 11 Increase 11 5 Increase 5
Aldman Democratic Alliance 2 Steady
Estmere First 0 Decrease 35
PSD 51 short of a majority


Constituency results came in through the night, with the first constituency to declare being Longwood East at 11:16pm, beating Rasifax and Ramsfield West who declared second and third respectively. Strool was gthe last constituency to declare, at 1pm the following day, following four recounts[44]. The full constituency results and preliminary party list results were announced on 28 May[45]. For constituencies, the PSD were on 195, the SDU on 148, Reform on 37, the Greens on 8, the Left on 1, PS on 9, the ADA on 2 and all others on 0. The preliminary party list results showed the PSD between 54-63, the SDU between 44-59, Reform between 1-13, the Greens between 27-35, the Left between 14-26, PS between 0-3, Vox between 4-13, Centre between 7-19, between 2-11, and all others on 0[45].

The full official results were announced on 29 May[2], showing the Progressive Social Democrats on 253 seats, outperforming the exit poll, with the Sotirian Democratic Union on 199 and the Reform Party on 44, both underperforming the exit poll. The PSD was the largest party by a significant margin, and was widely reported to have won the election. It emerged as the largest party for the first time in a national election since the 1973 election, and Zoe Halivar announced her intention to form a minority government with an informal agreement of support from Reform, the Greens and Left. This was in spite of Reginald Wilton-Smyth also attempting to secure a majority in the Chamber for his incumbent government. Wilton-Smyth conceded defeat on 31 May, and Halivar was invited by President Alice Roberts to form a government[8].

253 40 21 44 199 43
Progressive Social Democrats Greens Left Reform Sotirian Democratic Union Others
2021 Estmere Parliament.svg
Progressive Social Democrats13,805,57244.7912,729,10141.30253Increase66
Sotirian Democratic Union10,529,09934.1610,032,05432.55199Decrease17
Reform Party2,780,2259.022,185,9057.0944Decrease57
Left Party610,2931.981,156,3763.7521Increase6
Centre Party332,8871.08793,9542.5814New
Party of the Swathish591,7991.92531,7671.7310Decrease5
Vox Estmere228,0890.74583,9171.8910New
Aldman Democratic Alliance126,3740.41104,0100.342Steady0
Estmere First151,0320.49115,5870.380Decrease35
All other parties50,0080.1684,9250.28
Valid votes30,820,49799.9930,818,70799.99
Invalid/blank votes2,3910.014,1830.01
Total votes30,822,888100.0030,822,890100.00
Registered voters/turnout42,308,45572.8542,308,45572.85
Source: EBS News Online


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