2015 Weranian federal election

2015 Weranian federal election

22 May 2015
All 545 seats to the Volkstag 273 seats are needed for a majority in the Volkstag
Turnout	32,985,790 (73.11%) 1.62%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Viktor Oberhauser Günter Schaefer Klaus Ngo Party SRPO NKP PMZ Leader since 24th September 2014 24th July 2011 6th September 2009 Last election 190 seats, 33.08% 135 seats, 23.59% 95 seats, 14.64% Seats won 157 144 88 Seat change 33 9 7 Popular vote 9,175,847 9,086,742 4,257,483 Percentage 27.12% 26.85% 12.58% Swing 5.96% 3.26% 2.06%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Käthe Schickdanze Peter Lötzsch Aneta Umbraite Party DA OSAI SDT Leader since 18th October 2014 17th May 2012 11th March 2006 Last election 22 seats, 4.42% 26 seats, 5.90% 20 seats, 2.03% Seats won 41 35 29 Seat change 19 9 9 Popular vote 2,557,493 2,385,637 858,472 Percentage 7.56% 7.05% 2.54% Swing 3.09% 1.15% 0.51   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader Valentina Kaltenbrunner (Spitzenkandidat) Albrecht Ströher Arvydas Ražauskas Party Grüns OVFP NNK Leader since 12th November 2008 16th August 2006 20th March 1999 Last election 26 seats, 3.69% 12 seats, 2.93% 10 seats, 2.10% Seats won 22 15 11 Seat change 4 3 1 Popular vote 1,268,372 1,245,738 939,583 Percentage 3.75% 3.68% 2.78% Swing 0.06% 0.75% 0.68%
States coloured by largest party.
Chancellor before election Viktor Oberhauser SPRO Elected Chancellor Viktor Oberhauser SPRO

The 44^th federal election was held in the Weranian Confederation for the Volkstag (the lower house of the Bundestag) on the 22^nd May 2015. All 545 members of the Volkstag were elected under a single non-transferable vote system in multi-member electoral districts. The election saw the governing Social Democratic Radical Party-Modern Centre Party emerge as the largest bloc but losing its absolute majority. Gains were made by almost all parties outside the governing coalition although none of them were particularly large. The election resulted in the continuation of the SRPO-PMZ government with support from two minor parties, the Weranic Section of the Workers' International and the Sotirian Democratic Homeland.

The election was called at the expiration of the previous Volkstag's term from 2011 to 2015. Four of the five main parties - the SRPO, NKP, DA and OSAI - had all changed their leaders during the parliamentary term, most dramatically when SRPO leader and incumbent Chancellor Ellis Koopmann had been ousted by her Foreign Minister, Viktor Oberhauser.

Despite the changes in leaders the election was widely regarded as one of the dullest in recent history. The outgoing government largely defended their economic record which had seen Werania through an economic recovery since the 2005 Euclean financial crisis. The opposition NKP after its disastrous result in the 2011 election was not seen as ready to hold government again. The NKP attempted to capitalise on the disunity within the government - particularly with the ouster of Koopmann - to regain lost ground, but its own internal infighting meant it's leader Günter Schaefer was not perceived as a credible candidate for Chancellor. The lack of support for the NKP meant smaller parties attempted to portray themselves as the main opposition force but none managed to stand out. The themes of the election included the economy, government infighting and corruption, migration and the Euclean Community although the campaigns lacked a consistent narrative.

The governing coalition lost only a handful of seats but enough to deprive it of a majority, forcing them to work with smaller parties who benefited from both the government's lukewarm popularity and the NKP's lack thereof. This was only the third time in Weranian history that a centre-left government was re-elected to a second term (after the 1954 and 1987 elections).

Turnout was 73.11%, a small decline from 74.73% in the last election.

Electoral process

Werania has since 1908 used an single non-transferable vote in multi-member districts to send 545 representatives to the Volkstag. the exception is Ostry, which elects a single representative on the basis of first-past-the-post. The current electoral boundaries were approved in 2010 by the Electoral Board, with boundaries being decided every 10 years based on census data. Should a party have 273 or more representative in the Volkstag, it has an absolute majority and could thus govern autonomously, without a coalition partner. The constitution can be amended with a supermajority of two-thirds, or 360 deputies.

Voters have to registrar to vote by the 20 April. In order to be eligible to vote one must be over the age of 18, be a citizen of Werania, have a permanent address in Werania and not be currently in prison.

Each party by convention nominates a single "chancellor candidate" (spitzenkandidat) that leads the party in debates, even if the party has multiple leaders. However only the largest parties spitzenkandidats - the NKP and SRPO - are considered to be likely to become Chancellor.

Background

The last federal election in 2011 saw a change in government from the National Consolidation Party-Reform Conservative Party coalition to one between the Social Democratic Radical Party and Modern Centre Party. The coalition was led by the SRPO Chairwomen Ellis Koopmann who became Chancellor and the PMZ leader Klaus Ngo who becoming vice-chancellor and Minister of Finance. Koopmann was the second female Chancellor after Rasa Šimonytė and Ngo was the first vice-chancellor of Coian descent.

The coalition came to power in the context of the aftermath of the 2005 Euclean financial crisis. As a response to the crisis the outgoing NKP-RKP coalition had implemented austerity policies to deal with Werania's large public debt, which was valued at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 94%. The SRPO-PMZ coalition committed to reducing the total debt burden and fiscal deficit through a mixture of steep tax increases and a retrenchment in public services with the intention of eliminating the structural deficit and reducing the public debt substantially by 2020.

The 2011 budget became controversial when the government reneged on a promise made during the 2011 election to repeal the 2009 Employment Law which had significantly deregulated the labour market and made it much easier to hire and fire workers, instead passing an amended version that made only light changes to the 2009 Law. The budget also attracted controversy over the introduction of a new tax rate on revenue earned above €1,000,000 annually with the tax rate being 65%. The tax attracted criticism as being an "attack on the wealthy" although the government justified it by saying tough measures needed to be implemented to deal with the debt and deficit.

In 2012 regional elections the SRPO performed worse then expected in Ruttland and Roetenberg, losing their place in government in the latter and failing to come first in Ruttland. However after the next budget saw value-added-tax slightly reduced the government's popularity rebounded; at the 2013 Herrstag elections the SRPO and PMZ only saw modest losses.

Ellis Koopmann served as Chancellor from 2011 to her ousting in 2014.

In late 2013 government was placed under pressure when it became likely Werania's credit rating would be downgraded; as a result the government implemented a pension reform that aimed to further bolster government finances. The pension reform increased contributions rather then the retirement age; this saw a further drop in support although not as severe as during the 2011 budget. During the election campaign Chancellor Koopmann had announced her support for for same-sex marriage and adoption for LGBT+ couples; this was subsequently brought back to attention in early 2014 when Koopmann promoted the passage of a bill, the Marriage Equality Act, that would legalise same-sex marriage in Werania on a federal level (already being in place in several provinces). The bill passed with the support of the left in the Bundestag; however the right voted against it. Although acclaimed by LGBT+ activists the move polarised parts of Weranian society.

By late 2014 the SRPO had for over a year been behind the NKP in the polls. Koopmann in particular came from harsh criticism from parts of the media (especially those associated with the Eckhardt and Nord Communications media group) for indecision, arrogance and breaking promises although her supporters stated that much coverage surrounding her was sexist in nature. Nevertheless at a party meeting in September 2014 leading members from the centrist and soft left wings of the party - Lothar Holzmeister, Klaus Barchmann and Viktor Oberhauser - decided they no longer had confidence in Koopmann's leadership and filed a motion to remove her as leader. A vote held by the party's caucus saw 132 members voting for Oberhauser to become leader and 58 members in favour of Koopmann. Koopmann as a result resigned the Chancellorship with Oberhauser replacing her as both SRPO leader and Chancellor on the 24 September 2014.

As a result of the leadership change the SRPO's polling numbers saw a sharp increase regaining a narrow lead ahead of the NKP. By the time the election was called the two nations stood neck and neck in the polls, with commentators giving a slight edge to the incumbent government.

Timetable

23 March	Chancellor Viktor Oberhauser announced his intention to dissolve the Volkstag and hold an election for the 22nd May.
24 March	Holder of the Federal Presidency Charlotte II approves of the Chancellor's request to hold an election.
27 March	Formal dissolution of the Volkstag; start of campaign period.
18 April	Last day members of the public could register to vote.
22 April	Last day in which members of the public could apply for proxy voting or postal voting.
9 May	Last day for candidates to file nomination papers.
22 May	Polling day
29 May	New Volkstag Assembled

Parties

Below are the parties of the outgoing 2011-2015 legislature who filed to run in the 2015 election.

Party		Ideology	Political position	Spitzenkandidat	2015 result	In government
	Social Democratic Radical Party of Werania	Social Democracy, Social liberalism	Centre-left	Viktor Oberhauser	190 / 545	Y
	National Consolidation Party	Sotirian Democracy, Conservatism	Centre-right	Günter Schaefer	135 / 545	N
	Modern Centre Party	Liberalism, Economic liberalism	Centre	Klaus Ngo	95 / 545	Y
	Weranic Section of the Workers' International	Euclomorhism, Democratic socialism	Left-wing	Peter Lötzsch	26 / 545	N
	Green Party	Green politics, Progressivism	Centre-left	Valentina Kaltenbrunner	26 / 545	N
	Democratic Alternative	Right-wing populism, National liberalism	Right-wing	Käthe Schickdanze	22 / 545	N
	Sotirian Democratic Homeland	Ruttish regionalism, Sotirian Democracy	Centre-right	Aneta Umbraite	20 / 545	N
	Weranic Völkisch Freedom Party	Völkisch movement, Third Position	Far-right	Albrecht Ströher	12 / 545	N
	National Coalition for Independence	Ruttish nationalism, Populism	Syncretic	Arvydas Ražauskas	10 / 545	N
	Reform Conservative Party	Social conservatism, economic liberalism	Right-wing	Fabian Breitscheid	6 / 545	N
	Aldman People's Party	Aldman interests, Liberalism	Centre	Haiko Posthuma	2 / 545	N
	United Party	Weranian-Charlotte Islander unionism, Conservatism	Centre-right	Matthias Iha	1 / 545	N

Campaign

SRPO spitzenkandidat Viktor Oberhauser speaking to a reporter prior to the second spitzenkandidat debate.

The SRPO and PMZ both defended their records in the outgoing government, although under new leaderships stressed differences in their approaches. The SRPO pledged that the next government would retain a more "social" focus with a greater emphasis on increasing spending in health and education. The SRPO pledged to work to reduce classroom sizes to an average of 20 per class and reform the health sector to make certain private treatments more affordable by linking them to private finance initiatives within hospitals. The SRPO stated they would not raise consumption tax, but did not rule out other tax raises. A key feature of the SRPO's campaign was the message of the benefits of the current government and of the harsher austerity policies pursued by the former NKP-RKP coalition if the right returned to power.

The PMZ also supported the policies of the outgoing government but pledged in their second term to push for a simplification of the tax system including the replacement of the current income taxation regime with a simplified two-bracket system (a 15% lower rate and 20% higher rate). The PMZ leader and vice-chancellor Ngo supported a change in direction of the PMZ's climate policy, supporting a "green liberal" agenda that sought to promote renewable industries.

NKP spitzenkandidat Günter Schaefer speaking with party supporters in Prizen.

The NKP's campaign was mostly based around fiscal policy. It harshly criticised the tax increases under the outgoing government and pledged to replace the existing tax system with a flat tax of 22% for all income taxes. The NKP also sought to cut public spending more efficiently whilst streamlining public services in order to increase their effectiveness. Despite pressure from the NKP grassroots their leader Schaefer stated that the NKP would change neither the current abortion or LGBT+ laws which sparked controversy as reversing same-sex marriage was a popular talking point amongst right-wing activists in Werania. Schaefer also stated his support for the current government's EC policy which also attracted discontent with right-wing activists in the NKP.

As a result of a lack of enthusiasm for the three main parties support for smaller parties increased during the campaign. The Democratic Alternative party in particular reiterated hardline anti-EC rhetoric stating if they supported a government a referendum on the Euclo would be a "red line" for their participation and calling for an end of freedom of movement within the EC. The Weranic Section of the Workers' International also criticised the government's economic policy as having led to a "dictatorship of austerity" and called for a radical expansionary policy to reinvigorate the economy whilst supporting workers' cooperatives over big business. Both these campaigns were noted to tap into populist discontent with the current government on both the left and the right.

PMZ spitzenkandidat Klaus Ngo (centre-right) meeting voters in Roetenberg.

As the government was seen as risking the possibility of losing governance who would make up the composition of the next government was a hotly debated topic in the leadup to the election. The SRPO and PMZ both stated they would prefer to form another government together with the possibility of bringing the centre-left Green Party into government as well. The SRPO also stated it was open to working with the OSAI if the latter moderated its calls for a restructuring of the banking sector although the PMZ were more sceptical of cooperating with the OSAI. The NKP meanwhile was unclear of whether it would enter a "union of the right" with the SDT and the DA, with the NKP leadership split on whether to cooperate with the DA. This was seen to lose the right as a whole votes as the prospect of the right gaining a parliamentary majority seemed slim and the PMZ were non-committal to the idea of a centre-right government between them and the NKP.

Like with previous elections, the far-right OVFP and separatist NNK were not considered suitable parties to either join or support a government. OVFP leader Albrecht Ströher criticised the "particracy" for placing a cordon sanitaire around his party.

Results

Party		Votes	%	Seats	±
	Social Democratic Radical Party	9,175,847	27.12	157	33
	National Consolidation Party	9,086,742	26.81	144	9
	Modern Centre Party	4,257,483	12.58	88	7
	Democratic Alternative	2,557,493	7.56	41	19
	Weranic Section of the Workers' International	2,385,637	7.05	35	9
	Sotirian Democratic Homeland	858,472	2.54	29	9
	Green Party	1,268,372	3.75	22	4
	Weranic Völkisch Freedom Party	1,245,738	3.68	15	3
	National Coalition for Independence	939,583	2.78	11	4
	Aldman People's Party	248,593	0.73	2	-
	United Party	15,473	0.05	1	-
	Reform Conservative Party	806,749	2.38	0	10
	Others	345,637	1.02	0	0
Invalid/blank votes		653,523	–	–	–
Total		36,209,580	100	545	0
Registered voters/turnout		46,474,226	78.95	–	–

Aftermath

Outcome

The election results saw a swing against the government 8.02%, although thanks to vote splitting the government lost only 40 seats. Losses were much harsher for the SRPO, who saw a swing of -5.96% and a loss of 33 seats whilst the PMZ saw a swing of -2.06% and a loss of 7 seats, a much less severe result. Nevertheless the result meant that the government lost its majority in the Volkstag as the combined totals for the SRPO and PMZ did not reach the 273 seat quorum for a majority. The opposition NKP's 3.26% increase in their vote and 144 were an improvement over the disastrous 2011 result but they did not substantially improve their position being behind the SRPO.

The election instead saw minor parties by and large increase their seat totals. The largest increase for any party during the election was for the Democratic Alternative which gained an extra 19 seats. The rise of minor parties made building a coalition very difficult - the daily newspaper the Morgenpost posted the day after the election that the election was a "defeat for the two-party system".

Government formation

Chancellor Oberhauser's preferred coalition of the SRPO, PMZ and Greens was unfeasible as all three parties lost seats. However the day after the election NKP leader Günter Schaefer admitted he could not see how he as NKP could lead a coalition and stated "in all likelihood we are looking at another government led by the SRPO". This was due to Schaefer's preferred coalition of the NKP, PMZ and SDT failing to secure a majority.

On the 1 June Oberhauser was appointed by Charlotte II as regierungsbildner. As the SRPO had ruled out entering government with the DA, OVFP or NNK this limited Oberhauser's options for a majority to the following -

• A centrist government of the SRPO, PMZ and SDT. The coalition would have 274 seats.
• A leftist government of the SRPO, PMZ and OSAI. The coalition would have 280 seats.
• A grand coalition of the SRPO and NKP. The coalition would have 301 seats.

Although both the SRPO and PMZ leaderships preferred a centrist coalition with the SDT the small majority such a coalition would have in the Volkstag led to concerns that the government would find it difficult to pass legislation. As well as that the SDT themselves were lukewarm of the possibility of a formal coalition - being a socially conservative party the SDT had been bitterly opposed to the legislation of same-sex marriage which led to some opposition in both the SDT and SRPO/PMZ to their inclusion in a coalition.

Although as SRPO-PMZ-OSAI coalition had ruled at a federal level during the 1990's the prospect of reviving such an alliance was seen as slim. The OSAI's economic policies had been criticised by the governing parties and the PMZ in particular was opposed to the OSAI entering government unless it moderated its economic programme. Nevertheless commentators following the election theorised that a left-wing coalition was the most likely result.

The deadlock with the smaller parties made the prospect of a grand coalition more likely after several weeks of deadlock. On the 12 July Oberhauser reportedly reached out with NKP leader Schaefer on the possibility of forming a grand coalition with Oberhauser as Chancellor. NKP officials however rejected a grand coalition government out of hand preferring to sit in opposition.

The SRPO and PMZ were by the end of July "desperate" to form a government as opinion polling showed them scoring even worse results if a snap election was held. A series of last minute negotiations were held over the first two weeks of August when vice-chancellor Klaus Ngo proposed an alternate solution - rather then attempt to form a coalition the SRPO and PMZ would govern as a minority government with confidence and supply from opposition parties similar to what the NKP did during the 1960's. The "Ngo solution" was seen to break the impasse when on the 12 August and 16 August respectively deals were signed with the SDT and OSAI. The two parties would agree to vote with the government or abstain on confidence motions and budgets provided they were consulted on budgetary matters. As long as both parties either supported or abstained on either votes the government would have a greater share of seats then the opposition giving them a working majority.

Investiture Viktor Oberhauser (NKP)
Ballot →		17 August 2015	20 August 2015
Required majority →		273 out of 545 N	Simple Y
	Yes • SRPO (157) • PMZ (88)	245 / 545	245 / 545
	No • NKP (144) • DA (41) • Greens (22) • OVFP (15) • NNK (10) • DK (1) • VP/AP (1)	234 / 545	234 / 545
	Abstentions • OSAI (35) • SDT (29) • AVP (2)	66 / 545	66 / 545
	Absentees	0 / 545	0 / 545

The cabinet was officially sworn in on the 20 August 2015. Oberhauser was reappointed as Chancellor whilst Klaus Ngo was retained vice-chancellor and Minister for Finance.