Panoles plague

The Panoles plague (Argilian: πανώλης panṓlēs, 'all-destroying') was a series of pandemics (sometimes known as a 'syndemic') of multiple highly lethal and contagious diseases across the Borean continent which began in around 1053 in West Borea and roughly ended in the 1120s, although recurrent outbreaks of the pandemic's contagions continued for centuries. Despite the name, plague, while significant, was not the sole pathogen of the epidemic; cholera and typhus are also confirmed to have spread massively during the period.

Panoles spread throughout nearly all inhabited regions of Borea via the continent's expansive land trade routes, and into Conitia via maritime commerce as well. It resulted in the death of around ?? million, making it perhaps the most devastating pandemic in human history. Seriously afflicted regions such as West Borea were depopulated severely with perhaps as many as 50% of the population killed. Panoles would also cause massive social and economic upheavals, most notably in West Borea, where it resulted in the destruction of established local institutions such as the Bibliocracy, and the beginning of the Cositene expansion.

Origins

The Panoles plague designates several outbreaks of different diseases that occurred roughly in the same period and region which then epidemically spread; this was established by medicinal science in the Irfanic world by the 15th century, and in West Borea by the 16th century, although general awareness of this property was relatively low. The epidemics that comprised the phenomenon are generally agreed to have all originated within West Borea, however.

The first pandemic to break out as part of Panoles was actually a cholera epidemic, which began in 1053 in modern northern Zesmynia. In that year's July, reports reached the court of the Principality of Peresev that cholera had struck a number of towns suddenly, and that 'thousands' were seen with symptoms of the disease. Any control measures if taken at all were poorly recorded, and evidently poorly enforced, as the epidemic spread to Peresev's major cities via road and soon across the Zasem river valley.

The Zasem valley has had a long history of dense population, with its status as an economic core of West Borea dating to the Ancient Sepcan Empire. During the Neo-Sepcan Empire cities of the region swelled even further and made it one of the most urbanized regions of the planet at the time. Conflict of the later Neo-Sepcan period between increasingly powerful sualnic feudatories failed to touch the area's position significantly, and even after the Empire's formal collapse it remained a hub within Borea's trade network. For standards of the era, the Zasem valley's population of 22 million, which dwarfed the next most-populated area in modern Luziyca, made it certainly overpopulated. Indeed, urban sanitation issues were frequently recorded in the decades prior to the outbreak, and many epidemics had occurred in the region prior. The vibrio cholerae bacteria thrived (if not developed) in the massive Neo-Sepcan cities, and had caused smaller cholera outbreaks previously since the 9th century.

In late 1053, another epidemic of plague broke out in eastern Boratia; it was soon carried by troops of local principalities on expeditions to other areas, as well as being diffused via trade. As with other outbreaks of plague, infected fleas, residing on rats, were the main animal transmitters. This infection spread unusually rapidly. Minor plague outbreaks were also concurrently recorded elsewhere in Razaria and Mirak; it is unknown if these were related to the Boratian epidemic or simply coincidences, but as the pandemic developed these plagues would spread quickly too. An epidemic of what was later identified as epidemic typhus occurred in eastern Luziyca in 1056; these reached Namor via maritime trade across the Gulf of Gelyevich.

Causes of the occurrence of numerous epidemics in adjacent regions in such a short timespan has been speculated on by historians and epidemiologists. The quickly-transpiring chronology of events has been dismissed as mere coincidences, but scholars have also postulated that these epidemics were small-scaled initially before the spreading effects of a single, more prolific pandemic caused sanitation to decline and allow these outbreaks to spread massively. In contemporary popular culture, a supernatural explanation was almost universally subscribed to by the populace, viewing the afflictions as divine punishment, the work of evil spirits or miasma, or, in the case of Costeny – and especially the Pathophiles – a divinely bestowed opportunity for the revelation of truths.

While cholera, plague, and typhus have been confirmed by consensus of much of academia using both historical accounts and DNA evidence as main pathogens of the pandemic, other diseases are also held to have widely infected based on various theories. Claims have been made that viral hemorrhagic fevers, smallpox, and influenza were also major pathogens of the period, and some theories deny the role of cholera or plague completely.

Spread

West Borea

It was quick for the cholera outbreak to claim lives in Zesmynia, with contemporary accounts documenting 'three hundred deaths a day' in the at-time relatively minor city of Katvan, and even higher mortality rates in the larger cities. As deaths began to mount in upstream Zasem, the practice of disposing of bodies in the river accelerated greatly the disease's spread, and much of the river valley was engulfed by the epidemic by late 1054. Although Tastanic ecclesiastical services were somewhat effective in providing relief, having accumulated experience from dealing with prior outbreaks, even these forces were overwhelmed by the sheer prolificacy of the pandemic. In addition to this, measures such as quarantine were resisted by the infected, who escaped from their isolation quarters, while the confinement spaces themselves became major incubation centers as the infected interacted with each other (frequently not enough resources were present to isolate every individual from each other), and their waste accumulated. In 1055 daily deaths reached 'thousands' in some cities. Refugees fleeing from infested areas carried pathogens as well, and sped up the process further. Long trains of refugees themselves began to exhibit symptoms and even die as they queued up waiting for entry to safe areas. Zesmynia was utterly devastated by 1057, with widespread breakdown of order.

The well-developed roads that formed trade and transport networks in West Borea allowed each epidemic to spread in the former Neo-Sepcan realm in short notice, and large cities developed infections of multiple diseases simultaneously. The developed regions of Razaria, Luziyca, and other areas were struck as rapidly and devastatingly as Zesmynia, with similar scenes of carnage and levels of depopulation emerging. Amidst the panic, as trading convoys were barred from entering some towns, they simply moved to attempt to enter others, allowing even faster spread. The plague spread to modern-day Aucuria in 1054, brought across the strait by merchants and by Atlian raiders; the ensuing political turmoil provoked the First Aucurian Civil War and nearly destroyed the country's ruling dynasty. The plague had reached Oteki by late 1055.

Conditions were exacerbated as the destruction left by an initial outbreak allowed the growth of later-developing infections of other diseases, resulting in regions being rapidly struck many times by different epidemics and severely depopulated. Generally, survivors of an initial wave were unlikely to develop immunity to the other very different diseases that came later, which compounded the problem.

Areas in modern Volomeria were initially difficult to access and thus it was more time-consuming for diseases to make way there, but eventually large-scale panic also dawned in the Transcozarian regions by 1056, and a lack of previously developed immunity only helped raise death tolls here. After areas south of the Gozars had been temporarily made safe, refugees from the north brought the pandemic back.

Extremely high deaths and chaos had resulted in the evaporation of social order in many areas; violence ensued as inhabitants fought over what remained of necessities, and what remained of the petty-states engaged in warfare to either desperately acquire resources or to opportunistically expand influence, which both transmitted contagions by the movement of armies and made pathogen growth favorable with bloody aftermaths of battles. The nobility had largely evacuated to isolated estates or well-defended and well-supplied tvrdjavas in attempts to preserve themselves, though in many cases elites as well as commoners were killed in great numbers.

Central Borea

The typhoid epidemic in Argilia reached Namor by 1057, and was followed by entry of plague and cholera epidemics as well...

The Panoles plague had also reached Siphria by 1057. Siphria's numerous trade connections between Namor to the west and the Irfanic world in the east allowed for the rapid spread of the disease, while the tendency of Siphrian nobility to build their residences inside large cities as a show of wealth and prestige meant that the elite were threatened by the disease to much the same extent as commoners. The outbreak killed six Siphrian emperors (including three child emperors) over five years, and put an end to the fourteenth Siphrian imperial dynasty. In some regions of the country, up to 60% of the population was killed, though some isolated regions within the Khursaneh Mountains lost as little as 20%.

Far east

[entrance of plague in Min undermines the initial belief in the divinity of the Imperial era, start of the Avakang period]

While scattered outbreaks of the plague appeared in Senria beginning in roughly 1065, Senria's deep internal political divisions limited the disease to local and regional outbreaks for nearly four decades. Even these regional outbreaks proved deeply disruptive, however, particularly as Senria struggled to cope with conflict between the major daimyou clans, with fatality rates of up to 35% reported in some outbreaks. The plague finally reached Senria in full force in 1104 with the beginning of the Toukou War; apparently brought over by invading Xiaodongese troops, it was dubbed the "Xiaodongese illness", and remains known as such in Senria today. Its spread was aided by the movement of troops and refugees during the Toukou War and subsequent Bunsei War; the destruction of the wars also led to food shortages in many areas of the country, rendering it increasingly vulnerable to disease. Between war, famine, and disease, as much as 50% of the Senrian population is believed to have died during this period; between 1100 and 1120, the population of Heikyou declined by 70%.

From Senria, the disease spread further through the Lahudic archipelago...

[Accelerates the collapse of the Ggphangpa Thearchy in Akai and is considered a sign of the start of the Five Kingdoms Period, indirectly causes massive famine]

Aftermath

<Depopulation, rise of costeny, collapse of tastanic order, devastation elsewhere>