2016 Etrurian federal election

2016 Etrurian federal election

10 August 2016
All 690 seats in the Chamber of Representatives and All 290 seats in the State Council
Turnout	‭83.09‬% ( ‭7.68‬pp)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Francesco Carcaterra Gianluca Tozzo Andrea Salvini Party Tribune Movement Citizens' Alliance Etrurian Federalist Party Leader since 13 March 2012 1 August 2011 Leader's seat San Pietro della Abbadia Lariana (C) San Alessandro III (C) Piscara-Nord Last election 45 seats C / 19 S 45 seats C / 19 S 297 C / 127 S Seats won 317 C / 115 S 179 C / 80 S 86 C / 35 S Seat change 272 C / 106 S 134 C / 61 S 211 C / 92 S Popular vote 15,720,623‬ ‭8,773,653‬ ‭4,364,111‬ Percentage 41.6‬0% 23.70% 11.79%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Milan Vučković Matteo Fernandino Paruta Elena Paparizou Party Farmers and Workers Union Etrurian Socialist Party Etrurian Section of the Worker's Internationale Leader since 10 July 2015 8 July 2016 8 July 2016 Leader's seat Kaštela-Kvor San Gennaro su Hermes San Girolamo su Zeus Last election 61 C / 26 S 232 C / 99 S 4 C / 0 S Seats won 64 C / 24 S 40 C / 17 S 4 C / 0 S Seat change 3 C / 2 S 192 C / 82 S 0 C / 0S Popular vote ‭3,232,636 ‭2,051,359 ‭1,893,277 Percentage 8.73% 5.54% 5.01%
A map presenting the results of the election, by party of the MP elected from each constituency.
President before election Andrea Salvini Etrurian Federalist Party Elected President Francesco Carcaterra Tribune Movement

Federal elections were held in the United Etrurian Federation for both houses of the Senate of the Federation on the 10 August 2016. All 680 and 290 members of the Chamber of Representatives and State Council respectively, were elected under a single non-transferable vote system in multi-member electoral districts.

The election saw the established two parties of the incumbent Etrurian Federalist Party, under President Andrea Salvini and the Etrurian Socialist Party, under Matteo Fernandio Paruta suffer their worst defeats in history. The Tribune Movement under Francesco Carcaterra won a landslide victory, securing a majority in both houses of the Senate, while the Citizens' Alliance under Gianluca Tozzo made strong gains. The Workers and Farmers Union, under Milan Vučković and the Etrurian Greens under Fernando De Micheli making some gains.

Francesco Carcaterra became President of Etruria the next day with a sizeable contigent in both houses of the federal legislature, however, the Tribune Movement fell short of a majority and entered into a coalition government with the Farmers and Workers Union. The coalition agreement had been made a week prior to polling day due to shared analysis of polls. The result also marked the first time a far-right populist political party had been elected into government since the functionalist era.

Background

At the last election, the Etrurian Federalist Party was returned to power with slight losses to the Citizens' Alliance and Tribune Movement in wake of President Emiliano Reali's declaration that Etruria would hold a referendum on membership of the Euclean Community back in 2012. The Etrurian Socialist Party also lost seats to the Tribune Movement, indicating a long-held belief of declining support for the established parties.

The failure of the Reali government to hold the referendum swiftly after the election further compounded the decline in support, with many noting the pacing had given extra oxygen and space to those opposing the referendum. Between 2013 and 2016, the Reali administration was hit by a series of minor corruption and personal scandals, which further damaged support.

When the EC membership referendum which took place between June and July 2016, the poor organisation and bitter infighting within the pro-EC camp (led jointly by the Federalist and Socialist parties) and major corruption scandals consuming the Reali government, ultimately played a key role in the No-campaign's (led by the Tribune Movement) dramatic victory on July 6, when 55.34% of voters rejected membership. President Reali resigned on July 7, being succeeded by Vice President Andrea Salvini.

The defeat of EC membership also caused resignations in the Socialist Party and the collapse in support for both parties, while the victorious Tribune Movement, absorbed numerous right-wing and far-right minor parties and demanded a general election. Under immense pressure and growing unpopularity, President Salvini announced a snap election would be held on August 10. Throughout the campaign, Salvini's government was rocked by sudden resignations and arrests over the sprawling Meraviglia Scandal, while support for the Tribune Movement and progressive Citizens' Alliance was growing.

Timetable

15 July	President Andrea Salvini announced his intention to dissolve the Senate and hold an election for the 10 August.
16 July	Speaker of the Chamber of Representatives Pierluigi Grasso and Speaker of the State Council Mlatko Stepanovic accepts the President's request.
19 July	Formal dissolution of the Senate; start of campaign period.
30 July	Last day members of the public could register to vote.
31 July	Last day in which members of the public could apply for proxy voting or postal voting.
1 August	Last day for candidates to file nomination papers. Last day in which overseas voters can register to vote.
10 August	Polling day
15 August	New Senate assembled

Parties

Party		Ideology	Political position	Leader	2015 result (Chamber)	2015 result (State Council)
	Etrurian Federalist Party	Liberal conservatism, pro-eucleanism	Centre-right	Andrea Salvini	297 / 680	153 / 290
	Etrurian Socialist Party	Social democracy, pro-eucleanism	Centre-left	Matteo Fernandino Paruta	232 / 680	35 / 290
	Farmers and Workers Union	Agrarianism, social conservatism, soft eucloskepticism	Centre-right	Milan Vučković	61 / 680	52 / 290
	Citizens' Alliance	Liberalism, pro-eucleanism	Centre	Gianluca Tozzo	45 / 680	11 / 290
	Tribune Movement	Right-wing populism, Etrurian nationalism, eucloskepticism	Far-right	Francesco Carcaterra	45 / 680	11 / 290
	Etrurian Section of the Worker's Internationale	Democratic socialism, Evolutionary socialism, Council socialism	Far-left	Elena Paparizou	4 / 680	0 / 290
	Etrurian Greens	Eco-socialism, pro-eucleanism	Left	Fernando De Micheli	0 / 680	0 / 290

Campaign

Citizens' Alliance

Etrurian Federalist Party

Etrurian Greens

Etrurian Socialist Party

Farmers and Workers Union

Tribune Movement

Tribune leader, Francesco Carcaterra with supporters in Vicalvi.

The Tribune Movement's campaign was fundamentally built upon the momentum it gained by leading the No-campaign to victory in the EC referendum. The party had produced a post-referendum electoral plan, both in defeat and victory. The “victory manifesto”, was championed as the “plan for rejuvenation” and sought to capitalise on the anti-EC and patriotic sentiment established during the campaign. The Tribunes also heightened their populist and anti-elite position by advocating vast reforms to the electoral system, judiciary, senate and powers of the executive. However, they would quickly focus on the corruption scandals engulfing both major parties and vowed to be the “party of justice and honesty.”

When the campaign began, the Tribunes were reportedly in the lead in all polls and saw gains with each drive on anti-corruption and anti-elitism. Throughout the campaign, senior Tribunes worked hard to establish a link between corruption and political centrism, attacking the Citizens’ Alliance as “equally centrist and equally criminal.”

The Tribunes presented a manifesto that promised to:

• Empower the people through democratic reforms, including the introduction of power of recall, local and state level referendums and the institutionalising of the Tribune Movement’s “Policy Forums.”
• “Fight the Hydra”, by launching the most powerful and audacious operation against corruption and organised crime, by utilising every tool of state.
• To expand healthcare access to the poorest citizens by introducing federally subsidised health insurance.
• To “restore national pride” through federal-backed festivities, patriotic events and “proper education of children.”
• To “restore morality and virtues of Etruria” to the people, through reformed education, renewed focus on family values and combatting secularism.
• To introduce a living wage and to fight the gig-economy in the most developed cities.
• To honour the referendum by “finally ending the elitist drive for national subordination to foreigners in Kesselbourg.”

Many commentators at the time noted that the Tribune’s campaign was well-run and organised, relying mostly on a vibrant and active grassroots movement. Unlike the other parties that centred much of their media efforts on the party leader, the Tribunes presented senior figures to the campaign trail, such as Gianfranco Galizia, Vittoria Vasari, Ettore Mantovano, Vitkor Robar and Tullio Quagliariello as much as leader Francesco Carcaterra.

The Tribunes also made the most extensive use of social media and mass rallies, developing an app for smartphones that alerted supporters to spontaneous meetings or electoral rallies. The Tribunes held the largest rally of an estimated 50,000 people near Poveglia.

Opinion polls

Exit poll

Since the 2004 general election, Etruria's federal elections have only permitted one exit poll to be broadcast to voters when polls officially close at 22.00pm. This exit poll is a calculated average of all exit polls produced by broadcasters, pollsters and newspapers and distributed to media outlets by the Federal Electoral Office.

The 2016 poll entered controversy after falling far-short of the actual Tribune victory, in that it predicted a hung-parliament.

Chamber of Representatives

Parties		Seats	Change
	Tribune Movement	302	257
	Citizens' Alliance	135	90
	Etrurian Federalist Party	100	197
	Farmers and Workers Union	62	1
	Etrurian Socialist Party	29	174
	Etrurian Section of the Worker's Internationale	4	0
	Etrurian Greens	0	0

State Council

Parties		Seats	Change
	Tribune Movement	100	109
	Citizens' Alliance	60	91
	Etrurian Federalist Party	41	112
	Farmers and Workers Union	54	2
	Etrurian Socialist Party	15	20
	Etrurian Section of the Worker's Internationale	0	0
	Etrurian Greens	0	0

Results

Chamber of Representatives

Party		Votes	%	2016 result	+/-
	Tribune Movement	15,720,623‬	‭41.6‬0%	317 / 680	272
	Citizens' Alliance	8,773,653‬	23.70%	173 / 680	128
	Etrurian Federalist Party	4,364,111‬	11.79%	86 / 680	211
	Farmers and Workers Union	3,232,636	12.36%	64 / 680	2
	Etrurian Socialist Party	2,051,359	5.54%	40 / 680	192
	Etrurian Section of the Worker's Internationale	1,893,277	5.01%	4 / 680	4
	Etrurian Greens	999,771	2.70% (below threshold)	0 / 680	0

State Council

Party		Votes	%	2016 result	+/-
	Tribune Movement	13,926,896	39.73%	134 / 290	106
	Citizens' Alliance	9,547,390	27.49%	80 / 290	61
	Etrurian Federalist Party	4,716,390	13.58%	35 / 290	92
	Farmers and Workers Union	2,893,043	8.33%	24 / 290	2
	Etrurian Socialist Party	2,045,621	5.89%	17 / 290	82
	Etrurian Section of the Worker's Internationale	1,893,277	5.01%	4 / 680	4
	Etrurian Greens	1,601,072	4.61%	0 / 290	0