Akashian general election, 1998

Akashian general election, 1998

27 June 1998
400 seats in the National Assembly 201 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	88,8%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Ran Tsukuda Kōsaku Ayuzawa Shinobu Furukawa Party MPP SP CP Last election 96 seats 18,8% PR 17,2% STV 44 seats 10,2% PR 11,5% STV 94 seats 16,5% PR 20,8% STV Seats won 84 72 69 Seat change 12 28 25 PR vote 1.450.087 1.100.748 804.139 % and swing 22,0% 3,2% 16,7% 6,5% 12,2% 4,3% STV vote 1.351.369 949.254 837.190 % and swing 20,5% 3,3% 14,4% 2,9% 12,7% 8,1%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Toshizaku Imai Ei Katsuragi Liana Ferrari Party NCP GP URP Last election 39 seats 10,0% PR 10,1% STV 39 seats 9,4% PR 8,8% STV 21 seats 8,1% PR 5,2% STV Seats won 43 38 32 Seat change 4 1 11 PR vote 711.861 672.313 645.948 % and swing 10,8% 0,8% 10,2% 0,8% 9,8% 1,7% STV vote 731.717 586.692 580.100 % and swing 11,1% 1,0% 8,9% 0,1% 8,8% 3,6%
Most voted party by province
Prime Minister before election Shinobu Furukawa CP Prime Minister after election Shinobu Furukawa CP

A general election was held in Akashi on 27 June 1998. It was preceded by an electoral reform that restored independent lists' right to run for the party-list vote, and allowed parties that won a constituency seat to be excluded from the election threshold.

The Shinobu Furukawa government's popularity had been in decline since its re-election four years before. Voters increasingly turned against her forceful government style, despite her successes. While the Moderate People's Party retained a narrow lead in opinion polls, the Communist Party began to fall behind the Socialist Party, which grew hopeful it would emerge from its wilderness period.

Several party mergers since 1994 had consolidated the government to three parties: the Social Credit Party had merged with the CP, and the Justice Party with the SP. The New Frontier Party, frustrated by its dealings with Shinobu, strongly hinted during the campaign it would "reconsider" its relations with the government.

Results

General election, 27 June 1998
Party		Party list			Constituency			Total seats	+/-
		PR	%	+/−	STV	%	+/−
	Moderate People's Party	1.450.087	22,0%	+3,2%	1.351.369	20,5%	+3,3%	84	-12
	Socialist Party	1.100.748	16,7%	+6,5%	949.254	14,4%	+2,9%	72	+28
	Communist Party	804.139	12,2%	-4,3%	837.190	12,7%	-8,1%	69	-25
	National Cooperative Party	711.861	10,8%	+0,8%	731.717	11,1%	+1,0%	43	+4
	Green Party	672.313	10,2%	+0,8%	586.692	8,9%	+0,1%	38	-1
	United Reform Party	645.948	9,8%	+1,7%	580.100	8,8%	+3,6%	32	+11
	National Union	362.522	5,5%	+1,5%	369.155	5,6%	+1,4%	16	+5
	New Frontier Party	263.652	4,0%	-4,2%	362.562	5,5%	-2,1%	18	-12
	Liberal Party	224.104	3,4%	-1,6%	217.537	3,3%	±0,0%	9	-5
	Conservative National Party	131.826	2,0%	+1,0%	210.945	3,2%	+2,4%	5	+5
	Akashi Renewal Party	125.235	1,9%	±0,0%	171.393	2,6%	+1,5%	5	+5
	Independents	98.870	1,5%	+1,5%	224.130	3,4%	+2,5%	9	+7
Total		6.591.302	100%	—	6.592.045	100%	—	400	—
Registered voters and turnout		7.422.638	88,8%	—	7.422.638	88,8%

Bloc strength
Bloc	Parties	Seats
Crimson bloc	CP, GP	107
Pale crimson bloc	SP, NU	88
Light yellow bloc	NCP, NFP	61
Light blue bloc	MPP, URP, LP	125
Dark blue bloc	CNP, ARP	10

• Government: Communist Party–Socialist Party–Green Party coalition.

Surprising the public and media, the election returned a hung parliament. The MPP increased its share of the vote but shockingly faltered in constituencies, and lost 12 seats in total. The SP saw a significant boost and finished second, with 72 seats, while the CP lost support but finished third with 69 seats.

The NFP had a very disappointing performance, losing 2–4% of the vote and 12 seats, being surpassed by the URP and NU. At the province level, the MPP managed to win the most votes in Matō, but were overtaken by the SP in Kagi. The CP only swept its stronghold of Kobi, but had a sufficiently strong performance as a third party in the rest of the country to stave off a greater loss.

Unexpectedly, the Akashi Renewal Party and Conservative National Party both managed to win a constituency seat each, entitling them to party list seats.

At the inauguration of the 17th Assembly, the NFP changed its affiliation to the light yellow bloc. There was no clear government formation. The crimson and pale crimson blocs together had 195 seats. The light blue and light yellow blocs, with all the independents, also had 195 seats. The biggest complication was the dark blue bloc, which the centre-right adamantly refused to deal with.

In the first parliamentary vote, Shinobu's government lost by 195 to 205 votes, with the light blue, light yellow, dark blue blocs and independents voting against. However, when Ran Tsukuda put forward her coalition proposal, she asked that independents vote against it. It duly lost by 196 to 204 votes, but the ruse exposed the dark blue bloc's plan to support the formation of a centre-right government, which Ran fiercely opposed.

Ran condemned the ARP and CNP in her parliamentary speech, and directed her party to abstain from the next vote. In the meantime, Shinobu negotiated and made concessions to the National Cooperative Party, winning their support. Shinobu's coalition was re-elected on the third try with 238 votes to 78, with the MPP abstaining.

The whole saga damaged Shinobu's government, making it look desperate to remain in power, and caused it to be very precarious due to the left's numerical inferiority, forcing it to rely on centre and independent support to stay in office. The situation ultimately caused a snap election only a year later.