Ninvite War
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| Ninvite War | |||||||||
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| Units involved | |||||||||
| See order of battle | See order of battle | ||||||||
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| Civilian dead: 900,000-2 million | |||||||||
The Ninvite War (Gharbaic: حرب نينوى, Harb Nynwa; Tamashek: ⴰⵎⵢⴻⵔ ⵏⵉⵏⵠⴰ, Amyer Ninva) was a protracted civil conflict between the Charnean Army and the armed wing of the Hatherian independence movement known as the Hatha. The conflict formally began with the Hatha's 19 December 1975 declaration of war for Hatherian independence and was concluded 10 years 9 months and 5 days later with the 24 September 1986 armistice agreement under the Treaty of New Tyria. However, the actual duration of the conflict is highly disputed, with many[who?] pointing to the initial outbreak of violent inter-ethnic struggle across east Charnea in the wake of the 1965 al-Kira basin drought as the true start of the conflict, while the peace negotiations of 1986 that formally disbanded the Hatha created multiple splinter groups that continued to fight the Charnean Army well into the 1990s. The war encompassed most of the eastern Ninva desert and parts of wider East Scipia and would directly involve neighboring Alanahr, Fahran, Kembesa and the Amayana states of Makgato and Lower Karana. The Ninvite War would come to be defined as a brutal guerilla war fought in and around the populated areas of the eastern Ninva for over a decade, perpetuating the fast-evolving insurgent-counterinsurgent arms race, and influencing military strategy around the world for decades after its conclusion.
The devastation of the Ninvite War would leave an indelible mark on the East Scipian region. Between 900,000 and 2 million were killed in the war including both military and civilian dead, with between 3 and 5 million being permanently displaced. The region of Hatheria in eastern Charnea, which saw most of the direct clashes of the Ninvite War, has been affected by a lasting depopulation and still remains beneath the threshold of the pre-war figure of 2.2 million inhabitants from the 1964 census to the present day. In many cases, local residents fled to escape the fighting and never returned, re-settling in other countries or in other parts of Charnea. Although Charnea would eventually reverse its post-war economic depression, Hatheria never economically recovered from the war. The political fallout of the war also contributed to the collapse of ideologically pan-Gharbaic regime of Sabir Afzal Rahmani in Fahran and indirectly contributed to the Azwi, a period of upheaval that would culminate in the overthrow of the Charnean regime. The Ninvite War is remembered as the bloodiest and most consequential war in the modern history of Scipia.[citation needed]
Background
Foreign involvement
Itayana
Sparse available records indicate that the interest in the region appeared in several governorates within several months of 1980 as the war reached its zenith and it has been confirmed that observers from the 6th, 7th, 10th, 29th and 33rd Governorates were present during the initial stages of war. These separate missions observed doctrinal and technical developments of the recent era, seeking to apply them during what was believed to be the inevitable conflict for reunification of Itayana and possibly further.
The situation changed after ICA defeats in Hatheria beginning in 1982. A special expeditionary unit was formed from the forces of multiple governorates of the right bank of Karana and the Makgato plateau, commanded by Lord Abiodun II Sarimjatau of the 6th Shenmesu Governorate. Deployed in early 1984, it saw action in several Charnean offensive operations, most notably the Battle of Hamath. Perceiving the war as a training ground, governors made sure to rotate officers and enlisted to the frontlines and back; combined with often serious casualties, by the end of the war about two times more men served in the unit than had originally been deployed.
The role the war played in the political processes of modern Karana Basin appears to be crucial, yet is overall poorly assessed. High casualties included many dissenters from the officer corps of the governors, mostly hailing from the land-owning class. That allowed firmer and faster consolidation of power for the Solar Temple of Yanbango in the lower Karana Basin. At the same time, changes in the command structure helped to cohere the interests of the Makgato governorates, culminating in the 1989 Statute of Yanomi that solidified the Amayana Makgato Federation. The unit also served as a starting ground for the majority of the contemporary military staff across the Two Basins, and while the impact of military networking on Karanite regional politics is poorly understood, it may have contributed in ensuring stability after the Central Karana War, preserving the independence of the Upper Karana.
Mutul
The Divine Kingdom exact role in the conflict remain an unclear and debated topic. Official documents concerning the Ninvite war are still classified and kept away by the Central Library with only a minority of historians being allowed to go through a selected panel of files.
Charnea had already been an important client for the Mutulese industry. Before the war, the Mutulese aircraft manufacturer Ik' Chuk' won an important state contract with the Desert Republic, refurbishing its air forces with its K'ak'mul 5 jet fighters, deploying engineers and military trainers alongside the aircrafts. Many of these personel would still be present in the country at the start of the hostility.
Before any known involvement from the Divine Throne, "Mutuleses" volunteers made their apparition in Charnea in 1983. These were Charnean-born Tenerians serving in the Divine Army of the Ninety-Nine Nations who despite their rigorous religious and political training had deserted to return defend their country. To this day, the surviving deserters are officially forbidden from setting foot in the Mutul under threat of capital punishment for high treason if ever arrested, a condemnation unaffected by the various mass or specific pardons granted by the K'uhul Ajaw in the past three decades.
In 1984, the K'uhul Ajaw bought Charnean War bonds for an estimated total of 50 billion Latin solidus. The monetary influx was used notably to buy more K'ak'mul 5 to replenish the air force dwindling number of aircrafts. An operation made easier by the fact the war bonds had already been paid in B'ul, the Mutul' legal currency. Later in the same year, Mutuleses great houses such as the Ilok'tab, the Chel, or the Xiu, agreed to a new joint credit operation to Charnea, injecting another 10 billion in the desert country, while the K'uhul Ajaw validated the demand by Charnea' government to the Mutul' central bank for another 20 billion solidus while the Divine Lord continued to buy various Charnean obligations and bonds and encouraged other Mutuleses investors to do so as well. By 1986, the Mutulese financial support had been massive, reaching a total 100 billion solidus. A large portion of the money will serve to buy aircrafts, vehicles, missiles, guns, and other weapons from the Mutul directly or from other sources such as the then still unstable Elatia.
The reasons behind the Divine Throne late but valuable direct help to Charnea remain unclear. The Desert Country had become during the 20th century a valuable client especially when it came to military affairs. Economically, it is questionable if such a middle-tier economic partner, especially one with a negligible amount of long-term investments in it, was worth such a risky, sudden, 100 billion loan. Not all of that money was lost to the Mutul as a country: part of it served as a "stimulus check" to the militaro-industrial complex as the Charnean used their B'ulob to buy military equipment and supplies. But a large part of the money went to pay for the training and sustainment of the army, the maintenance of their equipment, the reconstruction of destroyed roads and rails, the stockpiling of rations and other supplies, etc... money virtually lost for the Mutul in the short term.
Some historians and geopoliticians have theorized that the cultural ties between the two countries, symbolized by the Tazzarat, have played their role in convincing the Divine Throne to so massively help Charnea. Especially when the Mutul had just gone through the collapse of one of its partner (Elatia) and might have been scared into action seeing another partner in danger which would have left the Mutul closer and closer to isolation. This vision of the Ninvite War as part of a larger Culture war between the theoretical White Path world and the Periclean monarchies has also been criticized as not matching previous patterns of behavior from the Mutul. The argument of the Divine Throne being concerned about a potential isolation doesn't really add up either when its economy had already picked up after the 50s crisis through partnership with Tsurushima and Sante Reze, tying the Mutul deeply to their respective economic spheres.
A later interpretation of the events was that the Mutul simply seized an opportunity it did not foresee and gambled upon it. When seen from the 2020s, this seems a natural conclusion: following the war, ties between Charnea and the Mutul were deeper than ever with economic, cultural, and even political and military cooperation reaching unprecedented levels. However, this a-posteriori reading seemingly forget that, in the aftermath of the Ninvite War, relations between the two countries became tense, glacial even. The burden of the war debt weighted on all of Charnea and the Divine Throne only agreed to debt reductions if the Charneans were capable of offering something equally valuable in return. It is only after the Seven Day Coup of 2013 that relations between the Mutul and Charnea normalized once more.