Seulbyeni Islands Crisis

Seulbyeni Islands Crisis
File:Stveniconflictzone.png Map outlining the conflict zone
Date 25 April — 12 August 1991 (3 months, 2 week and 4 days) Location Seulbyeni Islands and surrounding sea and airspace Result Tactical and operational stalemate, DSRA strategic victory · Withdrawal of Arthuristan forces · Dominion of Seulbyeni annexed by DSRA.
Belligerents
DSRA Supported by: Template:Country data Saarland Template:Country data Estovnia	Arthurista Supported by: Eagleland Belhavia United Republic Sieuxerr
Commanders and leaders
General Secretary Wei Tsuchii Anya Li Tsou	Prime Minister Humber Hockley
Strength
XXX	XXX
Casualties and losses
XXX killed, XXX wounded, XXX missing	XXX killed, XXX wounded, XXX missing
XXX civilians killed or wounded XXX million internally displaced

The Seulbyeni Islands Crisis, also known as the Seulbyeni War, Seulbyeni Conflict was a 1991 conflict between the Democratic Socialist Republic of Anikatia and the Commonwealth of Arthurista over the Arthuristan overseas territories in the North East Sea, the Dominion of Seulbyeni. Controversy has long existed over the Seulbyeni islands discovery and subsequent colonisation by Arthurista, although Anikatia/DSRA had always maintained its claim to the islands. In 1991, the DSRA invaded and occupied the Seulbyeni Islands in an attempt to establish the sovereignty it had long claimed over them. The Arthuristan government dispatched a naval task force to retake the islands, resulting in a series of large and costly engagements before a ceasefire was agreed. In the subsequent diplomatic settlement, Arthurista ceded sovereignty of the Seulbyeni Islands in return for the DSRA's guarantee of maintaining Islanders' autonomy and their political and economic systems.

The conflict has had a strong impact in both countries and has been the subject of various books, articles, films and songs. It was notable as the only instance of open warfare between communist and non-communist powers during the Cold War. Patriotic sentiment ran high in the DSRA. Relations between Anikatia and Arthurista were restored in 2001 following the collapse of the DSRA, the two countries' governments issued a Joint Statement Concerning the Status of the Seulbyeni Islands, resolving all outstanding issues regarding the status of the territory.

Background

After the 1990 Coup in Estovnia signaled the end of the second dètente period of the Cold War and brought a renewed wave of tensions between the Otterup Pact and Free Pardes. Only a year later a new General Secretary of the DSRA Wei Tsuchii took power and introduced a far more aggressive stance against Free Pardes. His policies led to a significant rise in tension and creating an antagonistic militaristic foreign policy is considered to be one of the primary cause of the outbreak of conflict. He directed a significant increase in military expenditure and on 25 April 1991 invaded the Dominion of Seulbyeni, resulting in Arthurista dispatching a naval task force to retake the islands, sparking the conflict.

Anikatian invasion

Position of third party countries

Belhavia

Within hours of the announced Anikatian assault on the Seulbyeni Islands, President Naftali Katz issued a statement denouncing and condemning the DSRA attack as "an illegal and unjustified Communist assault on Arthuristan soil and citizens." He pledged the full support of the Imperial military in the region to aid and defend the Arthuristan garrison.

Noting the large expatriate population of Belhavian citizens living on the islands, the Imperial government sent a strongly-worded memorandum to the DSRA warning of "severe consequences" if Belhavian lives or property were lost or harmed.

By April 26th, 1991, the Katz administration relayed its openness for Arthuristan forces to use port and military resources in New Shelvoy, Tobia, and the Ross Archipelagos as needed.

On May 3rd, HIGHCOM raised nuclear readiness to "orange", the second-highest level. This would be raised to "red" (highest) on July 14th.

Belhavia brought a complaint to the World Council Grand Tribunal on May 7th, 1991, but it was rejected overwhelmingly 6-3, with Non-Aligned Tarsas and Anti-Communist bloc member Rodarion (then less hawkish in its foreign policy towards the Communist world) crossing over to vote with all four Communist bloc members to dismiss the claim.

At the conclusion of the conflict, President Katz announced that "we stand by our allies in Arthurista, and how they want to end this war...however, we categorically reject in the strongest terms the anti-colonialist rationale underlying the DSRA's claim for annexation, and we intend to fight them at every turn in the global community if they attempt to codify such abhorrent anti-imperialist sentiment. For the record, the Belhavian Empire will not be subjected to similar sentiment."

Aftermath

Military lessons

The Seulbyeni Islands Crisis, brief as it was, confounded the expectations of military analysts worldwide and generates controversial commentary to this day. At the time, it was thought that the Commonwealth Navy's carrier battlegroups and amphibious warfare groups would suffer grievous losses from saturation attacks by the 'big triad' of the Anikatian People's Navy - the Motyekkoyu-class carrier, Nykov Ny-122 and guided missile submarines. On the other hand, if the Task Force succeeded in landing and sustaining a ground force on Seulbyeni Island, it was thought that the fighting quality of professional Arthuristan troops would overcome the conscript regiments of the Anikatian People's Army and score a decisive success.

As it turned out, Arthuristan carrier groups proved tough nuts to crack. In particular, the single Type-65 cruiser and first two Type-44 destroyers, hastily rushed into active service for the campaign, worked as designed and proved the worth of the revolutionary technological leap presented by phased array radar, integrated digital combat systems and vertical launch systems. Emmerian AIM-54 Phoenix missiles, fitted to Cyclones, would take its toll on Anikatian bombers, especially lumbering Bears tasked with providing vital real-time intelligence on Arthuristan fleet movement.

Once a ground force was established on the island, however, the derided Anikatian conscripts proved their worth in defending a regained part of their motherland, fighting with great tenacity in an attempt to repel the invader. The Anikatian combat logistics system was shown to be far more resilient than Free Pardes experts imagined. In particular, so effective were the few Changgok Chk-18 available in providing rapid, timely support that updated versions were procured for the Commonwealth Defence Forces after the fall of the DSRA. The measurably greater quantities of artillery available to the defenders also posed a formidable obstacle to overcome, despite the inflexible fire direction doctrine. Certain Anikatian technology proved downright superior. For instance, the heavy explosive reactive armour fitted to the latest Type 73 Seungli-ho was completely immune from the Boudicca's HESH rounds and impenetrable by APFSDS at distances further than 1,000m. The defenders' sophisticated air defence net also precluded the Fleet Air Arm from providing effective close support to the ground troops. These factors dissuaded the Arthuristan government from ordering a final assault on Seulbyeni City, fearing massive loss of life among both the attacking force and the civilian population, and instead attempt to pursue a negotiated settlement.

Political consequences

Emmerian analysts professor William al-Jilani characterised the Anikatian offensive as "successful in the short term, but disastrous in the long run. By invading the Seulbyeni Islands, the Wei regime scored considerable domestic points, but managed to irreversibly alienate the most moderate and least hostile of the Free World powers which had traditionally acted as an informal conduit between the two camps. The main consequence of this rash action was to immeasurably compound the Pact's isolation on the world stage and hand the anti-communist camp a political coup of immeasurable value.

Since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the DSRA regime a number of economists and political analysts and historians have put forward their theories on the conflict. Keralan professor of political studies Manohar Singh has described the crisis as a type of Cadmean victory for the DSRA in which it was able to achieve the strategic victory in reclaiming the islands but that conflict ultimately hastened the demise of the Otterup Pact and leaving the DSRA with maintaining a huge war debt along with a sharply divided and indecisive political position which was unable to act swiftly enough to solve the 2000 Far Eastern financial crisis which led to the end the communist regime.

Yakimese senior political scientist and professor of economics and international trade Kotoya Meshizuka roughly in agreement but suggested it was more of a Pyrrhic victory for the DSRA which achieved it's goals in reclaiming the islands but suffered such devastating irreplaceable political consequences both domestically with the fall of the instigator General Secretary Wei Tsuchii who was placed under house arrest, and internationally as the Otterup Pact alliance was effectively shattered by the Blue Revolutions took hold in key allies. While the DSRA appeared to recover economically by liberalising this was actually begun as a consequence of the tremendous debt accumulated because of the conflict. The DSRA suffered huge international condemnation and boycotts by Free World nations who won a clear Moral victory over the communist side.

Press and publicity

Press and publicity surrounding the short war was initially difficult due to the fighting but later became more clarified as major news outlets embedded reporters with combat units, usually exclusively on the Arthuristan side.

A major regional news magazine, the Far East Business Review (based in the Seulbyeni Islands), was shuttered for over two months as its staff evacuated with just a small newspaper printing machine. On its re-opened July 8th, 1991 edition, the headline read: "COMMUNIST FORCES INVADE ARTHURISTA, SPARKING POSSIBLE NUCLEAR WAR." This narrative was picked up by other media outlets, and news readers started to become alarmed as the idea of nuclear war became part of the public consciousness. On July 14th, the Belhavian military raised its nuclear alert system to "red", its highest alert, in part due to this spreading fear.

The DSRA invasion was universally panned throughout the Free World press, but differed on the reasoning. Some, including among the Rodarian liberal-center and Emmerian center-left, argued that the DSRA's anti-colonialist sentiment was valid (or at least reasonable) but that a peaceful referendum, not military force, was the appropriate action to take to resolve the issue of the islands' sovereignty. In contrast, the Belhavian right and Emmerian right-wing posited that the Anikatian rationale was illegitimate and that the islands were Arthuristan without contest.

In Arthurista, press supporting the contemporary unprecedented Labour - Liberal coalition condemned the invasion, arguing that the Seulbyeni Islands was not a colony, but a dominion enjoying complete internal autonomy and had always enjoyed the right to self-determination as to its political status, as evidenced by the referendum held in February, wherein the islanders voted to continue the constitutional status quo. As such, the DSRA invasion constituted a crime of aggression and a robust military response was justified. On the other hand, supporters of the coalition's main rival, the Freedom Party, included within its ranks a large contingent of 'trade liberals' who argued that Arthuristan involvement in global geopolitics was a costly waste and ought to stop at encouraging the dismantling of trade barriers, contended that Seulbyeni's failure to build up an indigenous military force, as other Arthuristan dominions such as Lion's Rock and Edwardia had done, meant that it was to a large extent responsible for its current predicament and that the proper response amounted to nothing more than negotiating with the occupying power over compensation for damage done to Arthuristan property.

As the conflict went on, the press played up, in what it was largely criticized for by media critics as 'excessive sensationalism', the increasing possiblity of the Cold War blocs going to war, sparking a worldwide conflict that would likely end in nuclear holocaust. This was illustrated in a number of polls: a May 18th, 1991 poll by The Chaleur World found that only 8% of Emmerian citizens thought the conflict would end in nuclear war, a number that shot up to 62% by late July.

Cultural impact

A number of films, plays, television shows, and other media depicting the conflict from soldiers', civilians', or politicians' points of view or speculating on a post-nuclear apocalyptic future due to the war emerged, as early as 1993. Several movies in Free Pardes, including The Eastern Waters (1993), My Last Day in Seulbyeni (1995), and The Barren Horizon (1999), came out playing on these themes in the 1990s. These were widely criticised by the DSRA and Otterup Pact members as being nothing more than anti-communist propaganda.

In the DSRA a large number of patriotic films were made covering the topic of the conflict. Most notable examples are The Righteous Liberation (1993), Seulbyeni Glorious Struggle (1996), and Destiny Fulfilled: The Unsung Heroes of Seulbyeni Islands (2000). They have been largely characterised as communist propaganda by members of Free Pardes.

Following the end of the Cold War there was renewed interest in Anikatia in exploring the topic of the Seulbyeni Island Crisis, these films featured a deeper, more balanced and overall more critical portrayal of the conflict. Notable examples of these were the war films We Cannot Return (2006), Company of Comrades (2014), and the historical period drama City Lights (2015), There was also a television show on SBC called Untold Divide played for two season between 2004 - 2005, which documents the tale of two families in the DSRA and the Dominion of Seulbyeni leading up to the conflict.

In Belhavia, on MBC Channel 17, a television show called "The Aftermath" played for three seasons between 1994 - 1997, based on a plot where characters live in a post-apocalyptic coastal town in New Shelvoy after the islands war heated up and most of civilization was destroyed in late 1991 when the Cold War blocs exchanged nuclear fire.

In world geopolitics, the phrase "another Seulbyeni" came to be coined referencing an event with a high chance of a nuclear war or worldwide conflict.

See also

• List of wars in Pardes