Mabifia food crisis (2019-present)

Street vendors in Boké during the Bifi haze.

The Mabifia food crisis is an ongoing food security crisis in Mabifia, which has primarily affected the regions of the Boual ka Bifie, Central Green Belt and major urban centres such as Ouagedji and Kangesare. The crisis has varied in its intensity across the country and at different stages, but the overall trend of greater food insecurity since 2019 has been observed using many different metrics. Numerous factors have contributed to the start and continuation of the crisis, such as desertification, poor rainfall which has reached drought levels in certain municipalities, demographic pressure from a rapidly growing and young population, urbanisation which has outpaced supply of food to urban areas, and internal unrest in conflicts in the Boual ka Bifie and Makania. Many of the problems have seen to have been compounded by the political situation in the country, with corruption an ever-present element and Mahmadou Jolleh Bande's government focused on large-scale infrastructure projects which have taken much of the country's budget. The crisis has led to an increased role played by humanitarian aid in food supply, bringing risks to future sustainability of food production in Mabifia.

History

A colonial mansion in Sud-Uruzikara, 1898.

Food security has always been a major area of concern for Mabifia, as much of the country's north is dominated by savannah and desert biomes which are not condusive to agriculture. Much of the northern population is reliant on pastoralism, which has been a response to the irregular weather conditions of the Boual ka Bifie, while the Central Green Belt relies on sedentary cultivation. In the precolonial era, relations between herders and farmers were governed by customary agreements which limited conflict. However, the arrival of Toubacterie introduced northern ideas of private property and ownership of land which had not previously existed. Headmen from the Central Green Belt and southern Mabifia now possessed the complete right to their lands and excluded pastoralists. Rising populations, caused by the introduction of modern medicine and other significant urban improvements, also created a need for more reliable agricultural production. These changes cut many boualic peoples off from their traditional means of subsistence, resulting in a famine in 1987.

The colonial administration did not prioritise the agricultural question. Large swathes of fertile land were bought up by white settlers, to be used to cultivate cash crops such as coffee. This led to food insecurity even in areas which had previously been highly self-sufficient. However, the Gaullicans also introduced new farming practices and technologies which allowed Mabifian farmers to increase their yields. The socialist Mabifian Democratic Republic, which won its independence from Estmere in 1943, opted to nationalise these estates and focus on collective farming as a means of assuring food supplies. While this was initially destructive, the increase in farmed lands would eventually increase agricultural production. These collective farms were highly inefficient and struggled to meet the demands of a growing population, which was one of the major sources of unrest which eventually started the Second Mabifian Civil War.

The second civil war destroyed much of the agricultural capability of the nation, which caused several localised famines. The international community stepped in, with a Community of Nations mission providing food aid to large sectors of the population. The destruction and sale of collective farms led to a return to subsistence farming, which is the largest occupation in Mabifia and source of the vast majority of the country's food. This reliance on local economies and smallholders has left the Mabifian economy vulnerable, especially in regions such as Makania where supply chains are threatened by violence.

Causes

Ecological

A Mourâhiline camp in the northern Boual. Desertification has threatened many pastoral peoples.

Ecological forcings have played a key role in the Mabifia food crisis. Between 2018 and 2020, Mabifia recorded record lows for rainfall in the Boual ka Bifie and Central Green Belt. This decreased rain had a major effect on agricultural yields, as many crops were unable to cope with the dry spells and died. Farmers often harvested their crops prematurely, which diminished their production. Soils dried, which further damaged their agricutural usefulness. In desperation, many farmers overexploited groundwater reserves, which led to subsidence and environmental damage. Though the conditions did not reach those of a drought in the Central Green Belt the mountains of this region are a major watershed for river systems, leading to issues downstream.

A major factor which has impacted upon the precarious ecological situation has been the process of desertification. Climate change has led to increased aridity in many historically dry areas, leaving them at risk of desertification. The increased intensification of agriculture, particularly the expansion of cash crop cultivation encouraged by the Global Institute for Fiscal Affairs as part of a loan, compounded this risk and led to the loss of large tracts of land. The droughts of 2018 led to a feeling of desperation among those most at risk of desertification, and many attemped to grow more crops to protect their livelihoods. On the Boual, traditional watering holes had their vegetation stripped and replaced with short-rooted foodstuff crops. This in turn accelerated desertification, wiping out much of the crops and further pressuring food supplies. Due to the interconnected nature of the crisis, many of these effects have in turn had follow-on consequences such as creating climate refugees who have pressured urban economies.

Demographic

Young mothers in Ndamasou.

Post-civil war Mabifia has faced several significant demographic challenges. During the civil war and subsequent market reforms, many of the jobs in the Villes nouvelles constructed by the regime disappeared almost overnight. This led to major displacement, with many people chosing to return to their traditional villages hoping to farm and achieve a degree of stability. Many also moved to larger urban cities, especially the capital city Ouagedji which grew by almost 20% in the two years after the civil war despite being a scene of major fighting. The increased rural population, and lack of overall oversight which came from the transition to millions of smallholder farmers as collective farming collapsed, placed major pressures on the rural ecological systems. As the situation stabilised, the children of the families who had fled to the rural areas desired employment and began a second wave of urbanisation.

Mabifia's population has also increased rapidly in the years following the civil war, owing to a high fertility rate of 4.65 children per woman. This has led to an increased strain not just because of a rise in people requiring food, but also because Mabifia is a country with a young population which had led to a high dependency rate. This issue is especially pertinent in the urban areas, as the urban population is growing far faster than the rural population due to migration. With a growing proportion of the population moving to urban centres and therefore less able to be agriculturally self-sufficient, the stress on low-level rural agro-economies is increased.

Political

Mabifian soldiers with a Gaullican trainer in the disputed Makania region.

The political situation in Mabifia has had a hand in both the origins of the crisis and its continuation. Mabifia under Mahmadou Jolleh Bande has been referred to as a kleptocracy wherein the government is more concerned with personal enrichment than it is about serving its people. The Bahian Renaissance Party, who have been in power since the end of the civil war, is dominated by the Ndjarendie ethnic group and its members have been accused of enriching themselves through crony capitalism. Corruption is endemic at all levels of the Mabifian political system, which siphons off large amounts of the money budgeted into regional development plans. This political weakness meant that the government was unable to form a cohesive crisis management plan in 2019 when the crisis first emerged. As the crisis has continued, there have been numerous cases of aid money disappearing and complaints that certain groups have had better access to resources than others.

An especially destructive element of the crisis has been the political instability in Mabifia, which has both fed into the crisis and been accentuated by it. A key region of tension is Makania in the north of Mabifia, on the border with Behera. Makania is dominated by the Mirites, an ethnoreligious group who have been historically marginalised by the Ndjarendie and other people groups due to their Sotirian religious beliefs and percieved status as collaborators with the colonial regime. The Makanian Conflict, which has raged since the civil war, has led to massive devastation of the natural resources of the area as it has primarily revolved around grazing rights and other subsistence disputes. The Makanian conflict has also impeded on Mabifia's ability to respond to the crisis, as the region is an important source of revenue due to its petroleum reserves and contains the Mabifian stretch of the Adunis to Mambiza Railway, an important artery for Mabifian exports. The herder-farmer conflicts in the Boual ka Bifie have also impacted upon the food crisis, as the associated violence is centred upon farming and grazing issues and has threatened food supplies. It has also created waves of refugees to urban centres, compounding urban struggles. Banditry, a result of weak central government control in rural areas, has also been blamed for loss of crops and increasing transport costs.

Economic

A small farming community on the Boual.

The Mabifian economy is generally seen to be one of the weakest in the world, which has had a contributing effect upon the Mabifian food crisis. Half of the country's population is located in rural areas, with the majority of them working in subsistence agriculture. An estimated 80% of Mabifia's agricultural sector is concentrated in smallholders who possess minimal amounts of land, often without legal oversight or regulation. This has complicated the task of managing water consumption and other metrics, which are already made complicated by the corrupt poltical system. These smallholders possess limited capital, meaning that they are more vulnerable to weak returns which can bankrupt them. Rural moneylenders are often unscrupulous, despite Irfan's restrictions on interest and dishonest financial practices, meaning that many of these farmers are also heavily indebted and under additional pressure. The state of poverty in the country also means that the population are less able to respond to rising food prices than those of other countries.

External economic pressures have also played an important role in the Mabifian food crisis. During the 2010s, Mabifia was under financial stress and forced to take a loan from the Global Institute for Fiscal Affairs. One of the preconditions for this loan was a greater investment in cash crops, such as coffee, cocoa and cotton, which were slated as a way of increasing Mabifia's gdp through raising export revenues. While exports and revenues did increase, the intensification of cash crop cultivation lowered food production and increased food shortages. As these cash crops are also highly water-intensive, already threatened water reserves were placed under even more strain.

Another source of economic pressure which has contributed to raising food prices in urban centres is related to the instability in much of the country. Due to the risks posed to shipments by banditry and insurgency, long distance transportation is highly costly. This issue is especially pertinent to Kangesare, the country's second largest city, which is located in the Boual ka Bifie. To supply the population's requirements, food must be brought in from the more fertile south of the country. This has raised living costs, placing many migrants from smaller Boualic towns who have had to move due to a lack of opportunity in their towns in an even more precarious position.

Response

From the Mabifian government

Mahmadou Jolleh Bande visits a rural community at the peak of the crisis, 2020.

The response from the Mabifian government has been criticised by many as being too little to effectively deal with the situation. In June 2019, when the first major signs of a drought were being recorded, the government dismissed the risks and said that there was no reason for concern. It is alleged that the government feared seeming weak, and opted to posture in lieu of providing actual policy responses in the critical early months of the crisis. Foreign diplomats were reassured that there was no such crisis, and shown carefully selected towns as proof. However, by October 2019, the reports in both local and international media of deserted villages and mass starvation were too much to suppress and the government was forced to respond.

The government's initial response was to increase the budget of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and place price controls on certain staple foods. This had a minimal effect, as the ministry was highly corrupt and unable to affect any significant change. The price controls were also of negligible impact, as the crisis situation in rural areas was such that it was not enforced. Instead, policemen often used the new laws as further reason to claim bribes from already struggling vendors. The government insisted throughout 2019 that while there was a drought occuring, it was nothing out of the ordinary and was being managed by the government. However, as the situation worsened in 2020, the government sought to remove blame from itself. Mahmadou Jolleh Bande spoke about the conditions being a product of anthropogenic climate change, blaming industrialised nations for his country's situation. He also turned on the smaller landholders, decrying the negative effects of unregulated agricultural practices on the water conditions. He was careful not to name any industrialised countries by name, and did not mention the negative effects of the cash crop cultivation encouraged by the GIFA, as he was hoping to solicit aid from abroad.

The government began an abortive campaign against unlicensed landowners in August 2020, a campaign that was marred by accusations of racism against certain ethnic groups. Aiming to exert governmental oversight in the agricultural sector, it instead became a land-grab by predominantly Ndjarendie officials who took land from Ouloume farmers for themselves. As agricultural production fell and a series of large protests against the seizures erupted in the areas affected, the government was forced to reverse its policy and committed to returning siezed land with a registration amnesty. Much of the seized land has still not been returned. Following this failure, the government was forced to backpedal its stance towards foreign aid and requested support "in unprecedented environmental conditions".

The arrival of aid money is seen by some critics to have lowered the government's interest in the crisis, as it allows them to focus elsewhere with confidence that there will be support given to people in precarious conditions. The government has also used the insecurity prompted by the crisis as a cover to deploy more forces into the disputed Makania region, which has been a source of insecurity for many years.