Tsabaran Civil War
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The Tsbaran Civil War is an ongoing multi-sided civil war in Tsabara fought between the interim federal government of Tsabara led by President Nazim al-Qutayni, against the Irfanist-Rahelian nationalist Supreme Political and Resistance Committee led by Sheik Faizan Salah, and the Atudite nationalist and secessionist Lions of the Homeland, led by Elezar-Ben Ya’ir.
The immediate unrest in Tsabara began in January 2019 over the policies of the late president Atwan al-Tughluq, who attempted to dismantle the co-social system in benefit of the Rahelian-Irfanic population. Atudite resistance to these reforms saw the emergence of the Lions of the Homeland, which began a low-level insurgency against the federal government in March 2019. Counter-actions and crackdowns by the Al-Tughluq government resulted in a series of insurrections by Atudite units of the Tsabaran Federal Armed Forces and an outbreak of sectarian violence, as both these situations escalated, the government backed down on many of its planned reforms. On 7 October 2019, al-Tughluq died in office, he was succeeded illegally by his Premier Yahya Aboud who opposed the previous concessions to the Atudites, renewed violence and the threats of mass purges of Atudites from the armed forces, political institutions and the declaration of martial law led to a coup d'état, led by Nazim al-Qutayni, who proclaimed himself interim president. The new government promised to honour the agreement made by the Al-Tughluq administration, but anti-government protests erupted in the east. The civil war directly grew out of the 2019 Yeruham Attacks, conducted by Al-Isbah against the Atudite-majority city and the retaliatory 2020 Eastern Tsabara Attacks, conducted by the Lions of the Homeland.
The war is currently being fought by the federal government against the Supreme Political and Resistance Committee, which seeks overthrow the interim government and establish a Rahelian majoritarian state. The SPRC is a broad Irfanist-Rahelian nationalist coalition and is backed by Zorasan politically. Zorasan is also suspected of aiding the SPRC with materiel and training of its militias. The government is also fighting against the Atudite nationalist Lions of the Homeland, which seeks an independent Atudite state in the southwest, the Lions are also in conflict with the SPRC.
Attempts at a negotiated settlement were held between January 14-17 in Spálgleann, Caldia. The Caldish government led by Taoiseach Stiofán Mac Suibhne sought to find a mutually beneficial agreement between the government and the League of the Righteous (the primary Irfanist group, that leads the SPRC). However, these talks collapsed in wake of the 2020 Eastern Tsabaran Attacks.
Causes
Presidency of Atwan al-Tughluq
Pro-Rahelian policies
Strongman rule
Constitutional weakenesses
Socioeconomic background
Tsabara stands as one of the most unequal societies in the world. Socioeconomic inequality was considered "concerning" by some economicsts under the Communalist regime, which failed to diversify the economy and remained reliant upon oil revenues throughout its existence. Industrialisation during the 1960s and early 1970s benefited the Atudite-Sotirian dominated coastal regions. However, inequality increased significantly after free market policies were initiated by the new democratic governments during the 1980s and 1990s, and it accelerated prior to the 2005 recession. With an emphasis on the service sector and manufacturing sectors, these policies benefited a minority of the nation's population, mostly the more developed and educated coastal regions, and members of the Irfanic merchant class of Qaa and Tebessa. In 2016, Tsabara's nominal GDP per capita was only $3,834 (on average), comparable to Bahian countries such as Habasha and far lower than its neighbors such as Zorasan. Per capita for the Atudite population was significantly higher at $13,503, while in coastal cities such as Elyakhin and Savyon it stands at almost $19,000. Also, with an annual growth rate of 4.39%, it falls below most other developing countries.
The country also faced particularly high youth unemployment rates among the Rahelian population. At the start of the crisis, discontent against the economic situation was strongest in Tsabara's poor interior areas, predominantly among conservative Arta Irfanis. These included cities with high poverty rates, such as Tamanrasset and Hitteen, and the poorer districts of large cities.
Rise of Pan-Irfanism
Following Al-Tughluq's rise to the presidency in 2005, he brought with him elements of Political Irfan. Though driven by his desire for retaining office, his useage of political Irfanism as an electoral tool ultimately led to the rise of groups across the south and east aligned with his positions. The most prominent to emerge was Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (League of the Righteous) in 2012, led by Faizan Salah. Other groups included the Association of Imam Ardashir, Imam Hussein Foundation and the Association of the Three Acts. Problematic for Al-Tughluq was that as he became more reliant upon these groups for mobilising the Irfanic religious vote, he became influenced by their agendas, which by 2018 had evolved toward Pan-Irfanism. These groups as a result came to advocate a closer relationship with Zorasan and came to view many minorities and the Atudites as "agents for Euclean influence."
Yehiel Bar a former leader of the Atudite People's Party wrote in 2018, "as the President smothers our democracy through his strongman antics, his ear has ever more strongly held by Arta Irfanic groups that seek to Irfanicise all of Tsabara. Worringly still, these groups are directly backed and funded by Zorasan." The rise of Arta Irfanic groups saw the spread of theological arguments that Adunis' control by Irfanics alone, would herald the first "success in averting the End-Times." Owing to the Eschatological focus of Irfan, many groups, AAH and ATA especially, have publicly advocated the eviction of Atudites and Sotirians from the holy city to enable an Irfanic renaissance.
Pre-war phase
January-September 2019
From early January 2019, popular opposition to the government's policies and reforms aimed at expanding Rahelian control over federal institutions grew exponentially. Initially protests arranged by Atudite nationalist parties were small in number, yet the protests grew in Yeruham, Adunis, Manara and Savyon. Most protests were peaceful, with limited police action. Yet, despite the protests, the government refused to change course.