Circe Contingency
| Circe Contingency | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| |||
| Belligerents | |||
 Syara |
 Górska | ||
| Commanders and leaders | |||
|
Executive of Syara |
Directorial Council | ||
| Units involved | |||
| Syaran Commonality Armed Forces | Górskan Federal Defenses Forces | ||
The Circe Contigency is a Syaran military operation plan that details how the Syaran Commonality Armed Forces would carry out hostilities with the Republic of Górska. It predominantly focuses on ground, air, and naval combat in and around the island of Chryse. Due to the largely peaceful and stable nations between Górska and Syara owing to the Treaty of Chryse, it is generally considered the least likely operational plan for the Syaran military to carry out.
Background
The island of Chryse was colonized by the Symmerian Empire and remained under Symmerian control until the Fall of the Symmerian Empire, after which it ostensibly fell under the domain of the Symmerian Khanate. Starting around the 14th Century however settlers from Górska began arriving en masse in the northern half of Chryse, displacing the local Syaran inhabitants. Supporting by Slavic Kingdoms of western Eracura, Górskan settlers revolted against Rioni Union and sparked the First Chryse War, splitting the island between Syaran and Górskan rule. In the 1860s a second war between Górska and the Kingdom of Symmeria resulted in 70% of the island falling under Symmerian control. Following the Unification of Syara, Górska feared the rising Republic of Syara would eventually overwhelm Górskan holdings. As a result Górska launched a surprise attack on the Navy of the Syaran Republic and invaded Syaran holdings on Chryse. The resulting Third Chryse War ended with a stalemate on the island and a Syaran victory at sea, resulting in the Treaty of Chryse. Despite the turbulent 20th Century, relations between Syara and Górska remained peaceful, and the treaty was renewed by the Commonality following the Refusal War.
Strategy
The island of Chryse is connected to both Siduri and Eracura through the Chryse Link, the only direct means of land travel between the two continents. Per the Treaty of Chryse, transfer of military personnel and equipment through the Chryse Link is forbidden unless specifically authorized by both parties. Both Syara and Chryse maintained garrisons on the island, with Syara holding the larger of the two as part of Chryse Regional Command. Syara's garrison includes the 3rd Area Defense Brigade, consisting of two mechanized battalions with supporting elements, along with an air defense brigade, a fighter regiment, and several anti-ship missile batteries. The treaty of Chryse allows for Syara to maximize its garrison up to 25,000 personnel; in the event of hostilities between Górska and Syara, the VZS plans to reinforce its holdings on Chryse to a division sized element, if time permits.
Syaran strategy mainly rests upon seizing control of Chryse and utilizing it as leverage to compel Górska to seek terms. The VZS does not consider an invasion of Górska itself feasible, however raids by the Special Troops Brigade and strikes by aircraft and naval forces are considered if the loss of Chryse does not result in Ostrołęka requesting an end to hostilities. Seizing control of the island and cutting off Górska access to the island via their tunnel from Różan to Koszalin, which would leave water craft or airborne forces as the only way for Górska to retain control of the island.
Due to the enclosed waters around Chryse, the Syaran Commonality Navy considers large scale operations within the Sundering and Sanguine Sea highly risky, with warships exposed to threats from Górskan airpower and anti-ship missiles, both of which have the range to reach the coastline of Siduri Syara. Thus the Syaran Navy would position it primarily as a fleet-in-being, forcing the Górskan air force and navy to retain assets on alert for a potential naval strike from the west or south. Destruction of the Górskan navy by the VZS would be considered a high priority and would be achieved through the usage of air, sea, and land based cruise and ballistic missiles.
Due to Górskan neutrality, the VZS does not consider the chance of direct foreign intervention on either side likely; however due to the extreme significance of the Sundering Sea to international trade, immense pressure would be placed upon both Zovahr and Ostrołęka to end the conflict. Syaran planners therefore believe that a rapid seizure of the island coupled with attacks that render Górska unable to resupply its forces on Chryse to be the best route to take. Upon the outbreak of hostilities, Syaran forces of 1st Army would immediately move to reinforce Syaran holdings on the island, with troops from the 47th and 62nd Attack Aviation Regiments deployed to the island, followed by light infantry from the 147th Mountain Infantry Brigade and the 34th Airborne Infantry Brigade from 2nd Army. The Commonality Air Force would follow up with air strikes against Górskan holdings on Chryse and later attacks against Górskan military facilities along the coast. These would be carried out by the approximately 300 aircraft of the 1st Air Division.
Syaran planners expect the initial offensive to be costly for both sides, but reason that Syara's larger pool of troops and resources, coupled with a swift victory on the island and international pressure, would be enough to force Górska to accept Syaran control of Chryse.
Given the remote chance of a conflict actually occurring with Górska, Circe is considered the least likely of Syara's main three Contingencies, behind Typhon and Cetus respectively. The VZS instead believes that a joint defense of the island by Górska and Syara against a foreign power is more probable, which exists as a variation of Cetus Contingency.