2023 Weranian federal election: Difference between revisions

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| party1        = [[National Consolidation Party|NKP]]
| party1        = [[National Consolidation Party|NKP]]
| color1        = FF6A00
| color1        = FF6A00
| last_election1 = 244 seats, 36.61%
| last_election1 = 253 seats, 36.61%
| seats_before1  =  
| seats_before1  =  
| seats_needed1  =  
| seats_needed1  =  
| seats1        = 300
| seats1        = 300
| seat_change1  = {{increase}}56
| seat_change1  = {{increase}}47
| popular_vote1  = 13,758,503
| popular_vote1  = 13,758,503
| percentage1    = 41.16%
| percentage1    = 41.16%
Line 83: Line 83:
| party6        = [[Democratic Alternative (Werania)|DA]]
| party6        = [[Democratic Alternative (Werania)|DA]]
| color6        = 116468
| color6        = 116468
| last_election6  = 30 seats, 6.09%
| last_election6  = 30 seats, 9.12%
| seats6        = 9
| seats6        = 9
| seat_change6  = {{decrease}}21
| seat_change6  = {{decrease}}21
| popular_vote6  = 1,018,596
| popular_vote6  = 1,018,596
| percentage6    = 3.05%
| percentage6    = 3.07%
| swing6        = {{decrease}}3.04%
| swing6        = {{decrease}}6.04%


<!-- OSAI -->
<!-- OSAI -->
Line 121: Line 121:
The election saw the incumbent [[National Consolidation Party]]-[[Democratic Alternative (Werania)|Democratic Alternative]] coalition defending a majority against the opposition [[Euclean Werania]] (a merger of the [[Social Democratic Radical Party of Werania|Social Democratic Radical Party]] and [[Modern Centre Party (Werania)|Modern Centre Party]]), the [[Green-Red Alliance]] (an alliance of the [[Greens - Ecological Action|Green Party]] and [[Socialist Workers' Party of Werania]]) and the [[Weranic Section of the Workers' International]]. Following the [[2022 National Consolidation Party leadership election|replacement]] of NKP leader and [[Premier of Werania|Premier]] [[Otto von Hößlin]] with [[Anton Raicevich]] in July 2022 the NKP had risen in the polls and were projected to make gains although the party's ability to gain a majority was questioned.  
The election saw the incumbent [[National Consolidation Party]]-[[Democratic Alternative (Werania)|Democratic Alternative]] coalition defending a majority against the opposition [[Euclean Werania]] (a merger of the [[Social Democratic Radical Party of Werania|Social Democratic Radical Party]] and [[Modern Centre Party (Werania)|Modern Centre Party]]), the [[Green-Red Alliance]] (an alliance of the [[Greens - Ecological Action|Green Party]] and [[Socialist Workers' Party of Werania]]) and the [[Weranic Section of the Workers' International]]. Following the [[2022 National Consolidation Party leadership election|replacement]] of NKP leader and [[Premier of Werania|Premier]] [[Otto von Hößlin]] with [[Anton Raicevich]] in July 2022 the NKP had risen in the polls and were projected to make gains although the party's ability to gain a majority was questioned.  


The disunity of the opposition allowed the NKP to exploit divisions within them, running a {{wp|red scare}} campaign alleging that Euclean Werania and the Green-Red Alliance would form a left-wing coalition with the OSAI. The NKP also continued its appropriation of {{wp|right-wing populism|right-wing populist}} rhetoric and policies thereby taking support from their right including the DA and the [[Weranic Völkisch Freedom Party]].  
The disunity of the opposition allowed the NKP to exploit divisions within them, running a {{wp|red scare}} campaign alleging that Euclean Werania and the Green-Red Alliance would form a left-wing coalition with the OSAI. The NKP also continued its appropriation of {{wp|right-wing populism|right-wing populist}} rhetoric and policies thereby taking support from their right including the DA.


The election saw the NKP secure a majority government, the first time a party has achieved this in Werania since 2003. Notably the NKP went from a coalition to a majority government, the first time this has happened in Weranian history. The NKP gained a strong majority of single-mandate districts with the opposition mainly gaining proportional block seats. Euclean Werania remained the largest opposition party although made no significant progress whilst the Greens lost seats compared to 2019. The OSAI got their best result since 2007 whilst the [[National Coalition for Independence]] gained the most seats in [[Ruttland]]. The DA almost failed to cross the 3% electoral threshold for the proportional block.  
The election saw the NKP secure a majority government, the first time a party has achieved this in Werania since 1995 and the first time the NKP had since 1976. Notably the NKP went from a coalition to a majority government, the first time this has happened in Weranian history. The NKP gained a strong majority of single-mandate districts with the opposition mainly gaining proportional block seats. Euclean Werania remained the largest opposition party although made no significant progress whilst the Greens lost seats compared to 2019. The OSAI got their best result since 2007 whilst the [[National Coalition for Independence]] gained the most seats in [[Ruttland]]. The DA almost failed to cross the 3% electoral threshold for the proportional block.  


Turnout was 70%, the lowest in over a century.   
Turnout was 70%, the lowest in over a century.   
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| {{wp|Conservatism}}, {{wp|Christian Democracy|Sotirian Democracy}}
| {{wp|Conservatism}}, {{wp|Christian Democracy|Sotirian Democracy}}
| [[Anton Raicevich]]
| [[Anton Raicevich]]
| {{Composition bar|244|545|hex=#FF6A00}}
| {{Composition bar|253|545|hex=#FF6A00}}
| {{Y}}
| {{Y}}
|-
|-
Line 254: Line 254:
| {{Composition bar|30|545|hex=#116468}}
| {{Composition bar|30|545|hex=#116468}}
| {{Y}}
| {{Y}}
|-
|{{wp|Far-right politics|Far-right}}
| style="background:#261060" |
| [[File:OVFP logo.png|50px]]
| [[Weranic Völkisch Freedom Party]]
| {{Wp|German nationalism|Weranic nationalism}}, {{wp|Neo-völkisch movements|Neo-völkisch}}
| [[Albrecht Ströher]]
| {{Composition bar|9|545|hex=#261060}}
| {{N}}
|}
|}


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! style="width:45px;"| Seats
! style="width:45px;"| Seats
|-
|-
|style="background:#FF6A00"| ||align=left|[[National Consolidation Party]]||14,856,781||44.32||166||13,758,503||41.16||134||500||{{increase}}56
|style="background:#FF6A00"| ||align=left|[[National Consolidation Party]]||14,856,781||44.32||166||13,758,503||41.16||134||500||{{increase}}47
|-
|-
|style="background:#800080"| ||align=left|[[Euclean Werania]]||7,700,595||22.97||36||6,743,028||20.17||65||101||''New''
|style="background:#800080"| ||align=left|[[Euclean Werania]]||7,700,595||22.97||36||6,743,028||20.17||65||101||''New''
Line 340: Line 331:
|style="background:#26C4EC"| ||align=left|[[United Party (Charlotte Island)|United Party]]||189,656||0.57||1||189,564||0.57||0||1||-
|style="background:#26C4EC"| ||align=left|[[United Party (Charlotte Island)|United Party]]||189,656||0.57||1||189,564||0.57||0||1||-
|-
|-
|style="background:#261060"| ||align=left|[[Weranic Völkisch Freedom Party]]||120,674||0.36||0||370,583||1.11||0||0||{{decrease}}9
|style="background:#DDDDDD"| ||align=left|Others||588,486||1.76||0||1,049,955||3.14||0||0||0
|-
|style="background:#DDDDDD"| ||align=left|Others||467,812||1.40||0||679,372||2.03||0||0||0
|-
|-
|align=left colspan=2|Invalid/blank votes||589,108||–||–||567,843||-||-||-||-
|align=left colspan=2|Invalid/blank votes||589,108||–||–||567,843||-||-||-||-

Latest revision as of 16:36, 25 February 2024

2023 Weranian federal election
← 2019 2 June 2023
All 545 seats to the House of Deputies
273 seats are needed for a majority in the House of Deputies
Turnout33,424,849 (70.1%) Decrease7.81%
  First party Second party Third party
  Эммануэль Макрон (52371529117).jpg Hearing of Věra Jourová (Czech Republic) - Vice president-designate - Values and Transparency (48859288246) (cropped).jpg 180913 Kretschmann Hybrid Faehre 01 (cropped).jpg
Leader Anton Raicevich Luise Höcherl Caspar Schönherr
Party NKP EO Green-Red Alliance
Leader since 30th June 2022 28th September 2021 Candidate for premier
Leader's seat Wittislich Bonnlitz-Ostbrücken Elbenweis
Last election 253 seats, 36.61% New party 80 seats, 18.52%
Seats won 300 101 51
Seat change Increase47 New party Decrease35
Popular vote 13,758,503 6,743,028 4,100,181
Percentage 41.16% 20.17% 12.27%
Swing Increase4.55% New party Decrease6.25%
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  2019-10-27 Wahlabend Thüringen by Sandro Halank–73.jpg Raimonds Vejonis 2019 (cropped).jpg 2018 Karin Kneissl Paul Richard Gallagher (16. Jänner 2018) (24876263787) (cropped).jpg
Leader Peter Lötzsch Žygimantas Navikas Käthe Schickdanze
Party OSAI NNK DA
Leader since 17th May 2012 16th June 2022 18th October 2014
Leader's seat Westbrücken Not contesting Prizen
Last election 22 seats, 5.96% 31 seats, 4.18% 30 seats, 9.12%
Seats won 40 40 9
Seat change Increase18 Increase9 Decrease21
Popular vote 3,357,844 2,085,912 1,018,596
Percentage 10.05% 6.24% 3.07%
Swing Increase4.09% Increase2.06% Decrease6.04%
Blank werania election map2.png
Map of constituency seats won (upper) and of states won in the proportional block (lower).
Premier before election

Anton Raicevich
NKP

Elected Premier

TBD

The 49th federal election was held in the Weranian Confederation for the House of Deputies (the lower house of the Bundestag of Werania) on the 2nd June 2023. All 545 deputies were be elected under a mixed-member majoritarian system with 300 through a proportional bloc and 250 through direct mandates.

The election saw the incumbent National Consolidation Party-Democratic Alternative coalition defending a majority against the opposition Euclean Werania (a merger of the Social Democratic Radical Party and Modern Centre Party), the Green-Red Alliance (an alliance of the Green Party and Socialist Workers' Party of Werania) and the Weranic Section of the Workers' International. Following the replacement of NKP leader and Premier Otto von Hößlin with Anton Raicevich in July 2022 the NKP had risen in the polls and were projected to make gains although the party's ability to gain a majority was questioned.

The disunity of the opposition allowed the NKP to exploit divisions within them, running a red scare campaign alleging that Euclean Werania and the Green-Red Alliance would form a left-wing coalition with the OSAI. The NKP also continued its appropriation of right-wing populist rhetoric and policies thereby taking support from their right including the DA.

The election saw the NKP secure a majority government, the first time a party has achieved this in Werania since 1995 and the first time the NKP had since 1976. Notably the NKP went from a coalition to a majority government, the first time this has happened in Weranian history. The NKP gained a strong majority of single-mandate districts with the opposition mainly gaining proportional block seats. Euclean Werania remained the largest opposition party although made no significant progress whilst the Greens lost seats compared to 2019. The OSAI got their best result since 2007 whilst the National Coalition for Independence gained the most seats in Ruttland. The DA almost failed to cross the 3% electoral threshold for the proportional block.

Turnout was 70%, the lowest in over a century.

Electoral process

Werania has since 1960 used a mixed-member majoritarian system. 300 seats are elected by proportional representation with the entire country treated as a single electoral district and a 3% electoral threshold being in place. The other 245 seats are elected via single-member constituencies through a first-past-the-post voting system. The current electoral boundaries for the 245 constituency seats were approved in 2020 by the Electoral Board, with boundaries being decided every 10 years based on census data. Should a party have 273 or more deputies in the House, it has an absolute majority and could thus govern autonomously, without a coalition partner. The constitution can be amended with a supermajority of two-thirds, or 360 deputies.

Voters have to registrar to vote a month before polling day. In order to be eligible to vote one must be over the age of 18, be a citizen of Werania, have a permanent address in Werania and not be currently in prison.

Each party by convention nominates a single "premier candidate" (spitzenkandidat) that leads the party in debates, even if the party has multiple leaders. However only the largest parties spitzenkandidats are considered to be likely to become premier.

Background

In the last federal election in 2019 the incumbent coalition of the centre-left Social Democratic Radical Party and the centrist Modern Centre Party led by premier Josef Felder lost to the centre-right National Consolidation Party led by Otto von Hößlin who formed a coalition with the right-wing Democratic Alternative a month after the federal elections. The coalition came to power on a mandate of tax cuts and limiting migration retaining high popularity after their election. The popularity was unevenly distributed with the NKP seeing a high rise in popularity whilst the DA collapsed in the polls. In the first electoral test for the new coalition in the 2021 upper house election the DA lost all the seats being contested whilst the NKP gained a majority in the chamber.

In mid-2021 the NKP was embroiled in the Furler affair when Defence Minister Ulrich Furler was implicated in lobbying for arms company Volger GmbH. Furler eventually resigned being replaced with Anton Raicevich but the controversy badly damaged the NKP-DA government. In August 2021 the SRPO and PMZ merged to form Euclean Werania (EO) although a minority of the SRPO formed the Socialist Workers' Party of Werania. EO's creation and the Furler Affair contributed to a decline in popularity for the NKP-DA coalition.

In early 2022 Premier von Hösslin and Finance Minister Wolfgang Kanther were alleged to have "systematically favoured" the Hosokawa corporation in the awarding of public contracts with up to a fifth of government contracts being awarded to Hosokawa. On the 24th April the Bundestag's Standards Committee has censured von Hösslin and Kanther for failing to ensure that public contracts are handed out "in fairness and in line with public expectations". A day later the Social Affairs Minister Simas Nekrošius from the DA resigned due to "a lack of accountability" from the premier".

The Hosokawa affair led to a decline in popularity for the NKP with the EO often level with them in the polls. As a result in the leadup to the triannual NKP leadership election von Hösslin announced that he would not contest the leadership effectively resigning. Initially the frontrunners for the leadership were Jörg Bullmann and Andrea Däubler, but Bullmann pulled out after a plagiarism scandal with Anton Raicevich leapfrogging to become frontrunner. With the support of Cislanian Minister-President Bartholomäus Stobrawa Raicevich became leader appointing Däubler as deputy leader and Finance Minister.

Timetable

6 April Premier Anton Raicevich announced his intention to dissolve the House of Deputies and hold an election for the 2nd June.
10 April Holder of the Federal Presidency Charlotte II approves of the Premier's request to hold an election.
14 April Formal dissolution of the House of Deputies; start of campaign period.
5 May Last day members of the public could register to vote.
8 May Last day in which members of the public could apply for proxy voting or postal voting.
19 May Last day for candidates to file nomination papers.
2 June Polling day
9 June New House of Deputies Assembled

Parties

Parliamentary
affiliation 		Party Ideology Spitzenkandidat Outgoing
seats 		In government
Left OSAI logo.png Weranic Section of the Workers' International Socialism, Libertarian socialism Peter Lötzsch
22 / 545
 Red XN
Centre-left SAPO logo2.png Socialist Workers' Party of Werania Democratic socialism, Enviromentalism Caspar Schönherr
6 / 545
 Red XN
Green left logo.png Greens - Ecological Action Green politics, Progressivism
80 / 545
 Red XN
Centre AVp logo.png Aldman People's Party Aldman interests, Liberalism N/A[b 1]
2 / 545
 Red XN
RNP logo.png National Coalition for Independence Ruttish separatism, Populism N/A[c 1]
31 / 545
 Red XN
EO logo.png Euclean Werania Social liberalism, Pro-Eucleanism Luise Höcherl
111 / 545
 Red XN
Centre-right SDT logo.png Sotirian Democratic Homeland Ruttish regionalism, Sotirian Democracy N/A[d 1]
9 / 545
 Red XN
VP-PA logo.png United Party Weranian-Charlotte Islander unionism, Conservatism N/A[e 1]
1 / 545
 Green tickY
NKP logo modern.png National Consolidation Party Conservatism, Sotirian Democracy Anton Raicevich
253 / 545
 Green tickY
Right Democratic Alternative.png Democratic Alternative National liberalism, Euclescepticism Käthe Schickdanze
30 / 545
 Green tickY

Campaign

National Consolidation Party leader and Premier Anton Raicevich campaigning in Wiesstadt.

The National Consolidation Party ran a campaign based on emphasising their record in government including a mixture of tax cuts, more stringent law and order policies and reducing migration. The biggest shift from the 2019 platform was a pledge to reform labour and industrial relations legislation with the NKP supporting reforms to make it harder for trade unions to strike in certain circumstances. Another shift from 2019 is a more pro-Euclean policy supporting harmonising towards a single Euclean corporate tax. Additionally the NKP advocated the continued freezing of reconciliation with Valduvia wanting compensation for the Burish genocide to be prioritised and restarted. The NKP ran a presidential campaign putting their leader and incumbent premier Raicevich at the forefront capitalising on his high approval ratings.

Euclean Werania supported continuing some of the policies of the former SRPO-PMZ government including an expanded house building programme, increasing investment in the healthcare service to eliminate waitlists whilst repealing NKP reforms in healthcare and in the education sector to reduce class sizes. EO moved away from both the SRPO and PMZ in supporting the return of the 1982-2001 wealth tax and committing to achieving net zero by 2060. On the international level EO supported greater Euclean cooperation on Tsabara advocating the EC to continue to ensure safe zones in Tsabara and to increase support for Etruria and Paretia to safely house refugees. However unlike the NKP EO supported a harsher stance on rule of law issues in Paretia and Eturia.

The Greens ran with the small Socialist Workers Party in this election on a left-wing programme that has emphasised greater moves towards a green economy and reversing the right wing policies of the NKP-DA coalition government. The Greens called for a carbon neutral Werania by 2035, increasing healthcare, education and welfare spending and reforming the housing system both to make housing and private renting more affordable.

Euclean Werania leader Luise Höcherl speaking to reporters.

The Greens also called for banning fossil-fuel automobile sales and production by 2030, expanding electric vehicle production and increasing renewable energy production. The Greens also support banning the opening of new nuclear power plants and closing existing ones by 2028. The Green coalition was the only one to advocate simplifying the process to change one’s legal gender. The Greens nominated Wiesstadt Mayor Caspar Schönherr as spitzenkandidat.

The Democratic Alternative proposed a more right wing platform then in 2019 including a move to repatriate rather than integrate migrants and calling for the return of the death penalty. The Democratic Alternative also supported an in/out referendum on the Euclo and have attacked the political establishment as being too accommodating of the EC. As part of their rightwards shift the DA supported punitive measures in law and order policies and much harsher immigration. The DA wanted to double Weranias nuclear capacity by 2040 and focus more on individual rather than public transportation infrastructure. The DA also pledged to implement a tougher approach to Zorasan and Shangea.

The National Coalition for Independence embarked on a more moderate campaign then in 2019. The NNK supported a referendum on Ruttish sovereignty within the next parliamentary term but also put forward a more conventionally centre left programme calling for increased spending in healthcare, pensions and education as well as opposing changes to federal labour laws. The NNK also supported restricting immigration to Ruttland and the creation of a “Ruttish Charter of Rights” to institutionalise bilingualism and restrict “cultural discrimination” to Ruttland.

Green spitzenkandidat Caspar Schönherr in a pub in Elbenweis.

The Weranic Section of the Workers' International focused their campaign in reducing the cost of living and “overcoming capitalism”. The OSAI supported reforming the Euclean Central Bank to prioritise job creation over anti-inflation, restricting financial speculation and closing tax loopholes in order to raise revenue alongside introducing harsher punishments on tax evasion. The OSAI also supported banning layoffs in companies turning substantial profits and introducing a 35 hour workweek. The OSAI also supported the abolition of the monarchy and wanted reconciliation with MASSOR countries. The OSAI wants sanctions to be applied to Soravia and Etruria and for Werania to end military assistance to Tsabara.

The campaign saw the disunity of the opposition highlighted as the three primary opposition forces - EO, the Green-Red Alliance and the OSAI - were not projectd to overtake the NKP in seats. The NKP ran a red scare campaign stating that the EO and Green-Red Alliance would go into coalition with the OSAI and would seek to introduce a socialist system in Werania.

Opinion Polls

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Results

2023 Weranian bundestag diagram.svg
Party Constituency Propotional Total ±
Votes % Seats Votes % Seats
National Consolidation Party 14,856,781 44.32 166 13,758,503 41.16 134 500 Increase47
Euclean Werania 7,700,595 22.97 36 6,743,028 20.17 65 101 New
Green-Red Alliance 3,216,922 9.60 11 4,100,181 12.27 40 51 Decrease35
Weranic Section of the Workers' International 2,867,566 8.55 8 3,357,844 10.05 32 40 Increase18
National Coalition for Independence 2,245,617 6.70 20 2,085,912 6.24 20 40 Increase9
Democratic Alternative 578,328 1.73 0 1,018,596 3.05 9 9 Decrease21
Sotirian Democratic Homeland 385,975 1.15 2 328,594 0.98 0 2 Decrease7
Aldman People's Party 305,815 0.91 1 224,829 0.67 0 1 Decrease1
United Party 189,656 0.57 1 189,564 0.57 0 1 -
Others 588,486 1.76 0 1,049,955 3.14 0 0 0
Invalid/blank votes 589,108 – – 567,843 - - - -
Total 33,424,849 - 245 33,424,849 - 300 545 -
Registered voters/turnout 47,683,728 70.1% – – - - - -

Aftermath

Outcome

Government formation

  1. ↑ The AVP did not nominate a spitzenkandidat with the party leader Haiko Posthuma representing the party in debates.
  1. ↑ The NNK did not nominate a spitzenkandidat with the party leader Žygimantas Navikas representing the party in debates.
  1. ↑ The SDT did not nominate a spitzenkandidat with the party leader Natalija Saldaitiene representing the party in debates.
  1. ↑ The United Party did not nominate a spitzenkandidat.
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