2023 Azmaran legislative election

2023 Azmaran legislative election

16 April 2023
All 150 seats in Folksmot 76 seats needed for a majority
Majority party Minority party Third party   Leader Sofija Anasdohter Henrik Jorśsun Freidrik Aleksaanderssun Party Workers' Party Sotirian Democrats Gold Flame Leader since 1 July 2020 5 April 2022 19 August 2018 Leader's seat Haadland Westmaark Groonbank Last election 51 seats, 32.1% 16 seats, 10.4% 30 seats, 19.0% Seats won 43 26 25 Seat change 8 10 5 Popular vote 2,062,980 1,296,909 1,307,754 Percentage 26.0% 16.3% 16.5% Swing 6.1pp 5.9pp 2.5pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Ana Freidriksdohter Liis Jonsdohter Hilda Maartensdohter Party The Radicals Green Party Blue and White Leader since 3 September 2018 5 April 2020 6 November 2022 Leader's seat Aalmsted Aalmsted Sompland Last election 19 seats, 13.0% 14 seats, 9.1% 6 seats, 4.0% Seats won 13 12 11 Seat change 6 2 5 Popular vote 734,758 637,874 557,122 Percentage 9.3% 8.0% 7.0% Swing 3.7pp 1.1pp 3.0pp   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader Maarijana Karlsdohter Jorś Leifssun Niina Karlsdohter Party Socialist Party Party for Hytklif Grey Party Alliance Free Alliance 08 Leader since 1 January 2023 19 April 2020 17 June 2010 Leader's seat Ostlaak Hytklif Groonbank Last election 5 seats, 3.2% 4 seats, 2.8% 3 seats, 1.7% Seats won 7 4 4 Seat change 2 1 Popular vote 400,634 225,317 279,361 Percentage 5.1% 2.8% 3.5% Swing 1.9pp 0.0pp 1.8pp
Largest party by fief
Thingspeaker before election Sofija Anasdohter Workers' Elected Thingspeaker TBD

Parliamentary elections were held in the Commonwealth of Azmara on 16 April 2023 to elect 150 members of the Folksmot for the 2023-2026 term.

After the previous 2020 election a centre-left coalition government had been formed by Sofija Anasdohter of the Workers' Party, with The Radicals and the Green Party serving as junior partners. Elections were announced by Anasdohter's government on the 3rd March 2023 in accordance with the Basic Law, and were confirmed on the 8th March as President Harald Alekssun dissolved the Folksmot. Issues of the economy, rural development the future of the welfare state, immigration and climate change dominated a relatively uncontroversial election campaign.

While remaining the largest party with 43 seats and 26.0% of the vote, the Workers' Party took a significant hit in popularity as it lost eight seats from its 2020 result yet retained a plurality of the vote in the provinces of Aalmsted, Westmaark, Sompland and Ostlaak. The party lost its plurality in Groonbank to Gold Flame, who nevertheless lost five seats for a total of 25 seats and finished second in the popular vote with 16.5%. Despite coming third in the popular vote with 16.3%, the Sotirian Democrats under Henrik Jorśsun managed a significant comeback to finish second in seat count with 26 seats, winning a plurality in the sparsely-populated provinces of Hytklif and Nordberg.

Anasdohter's coalition partners also took significant losses to the extent that the incumbent government lost its majority. While retaining its plurality in Haadland, the Radicals lost nearly a third of their 2020 vote share and six seats across the country, finishing fourth with 9.3% of the vote, while the Green Party lost two seats to finish fifth with twelve seats. The two parties finished narrowly ahead of Blue and White, who after rebranding under Hilda Maartensdohter's leadership surged to eleven seats due to a surge of support in the south of Maartensdohter's native Sompland. The Socialist Party also saw mild gains as they rebounded to seven seats.

The country's minor parties saw relatively decent fortunes, with the Grey Party winning an extra seat and doubling its vote share off a strong campaign against raising the minimum pension age while the regionalist Free Alliance 08 managed to maintain its gains from the previous election. Two new parties also made their debut in the legislature - the progressive Generation Azmara coalition, who won a seat each in Aalmsted, Groonbank and Wetmaark, and the localist Liveable Groonbank, who managed to take two seats on a platform promising to tackle the cost of living in suburban Groonbank.

Background

The previous election on the 19th April 2020 saw the Workers' Party led by Thingspeaker Eryk Jorśsun win the most seats with 51, five down from the 2017 election. Negotiations would begin between the Workers' Party, The Radicals and the Green Party in order to form a government, with tensions emerging between the Workers' Party and their two prospective coalition partners over the Northern Forum's funding of the Tuaisceart-Süd II pipeline connecting Caldia and Werania, which the latter parties opposed on environmental grounds yet divided Workers' Party parliamentarians and ministers.

After public disputes over the party's environmental policy and mass environmental protests triggered the resignation of three pro-pipeline ministers, Eryk Jorśsun would announce his resignation as Workers' Party leader on 20th May, being succeeded by Internal Affairs Secretary Sofija Anasdohter after an uncontested leadership election on 1st July. After this, a coalition agreement between the three parties would be ratified by the 10th July, with Anasdohter being instituted as Thingspeaker on the 13th July with 84 of 150 Folksmot members voting in favour of her institution.

After the passage of an amendment to the Basic Law of Azmara, the 2023 election became the first election in which 16-17 year olds were able to vote.

Electoral system

The 150 seats of the Folksmot are elected via the Wiljâmssun method of party-list proportional representation in eight constituencies coterminous with the seven provinces of Azmara and the Free City of Aalmsted. Open lists are used and as such voters cast their votes for a specific candidate on a list submitted by a party and party candidates are elected in the order of personal votes they receive proportionally to the share of votes the party receives in the constituency. No national threshold is present and as such any party that receives enough votes for a seat in any constituency is elected.

The 2023 election is the first since the establishment of a national age-based franchise in 1801 in which 16 and 17 year olds are able to vote and stand in after the passage of the 15th Amendment to the Basic Law on the 6th November 2022, which is thought to have enlarged the pool of eligible voters by around 150,000.

Constituency	Seats
Aalmsted	15
Groonbank	38
Haadland	12
Hytklif	8
Nordberg	6
Ostlaak	17
Sompland	24
Westmaark	30

Political parties

For a party or list to stand in the election it needs to present the equivalent amount of signatures from eligible voters as 0.33% of the votes cast in the previous election, or the equivalent of half a seat in the Folksmot - for the 2020 election this was 25,789 eligible voters. This threshold was met by 17 lists by the 26th March nomination deadline, of which 10 have submitted candidates in all eight constituencies. Parties must additionally pay a deposit of €500 per candidate registered and there is a requirement that to stand in a constituency the party must stand at least two candidates.

Party		Ideology	Position	Candidates by province
				Aalmsted	Groonbank	Haadland	Hytklif	Nordberg	Ostlaak	Sompland	Westmaark	Total
				114	276	85	59	39	112	182	231	1098
	Workers' Party of Azmara Arbeiderpartii âb Azmaara	Social democracy Labourism	Centre-left	13	32	10	7	5	14	21	26	128
	Sotirian Democracy of Azmara Sortiren Folksrâgelen âb Azmaara	Sotirian democracy Green conservatism	Centre-right	10	30	9	8	6	12	20	27	122
	Gold Flame – Azmaran Liberal Party Gyldflam – Azmaariś Friihederpartii	Conservative liberalism Economic liberalism	Centre-right	12	33	8	6	4	11	20	25	119
	The Radicals – Azmaran Democrats Radikaalen – Azmaariś Folksrâgeleren	Social liberalism Green liberalism	Centre to centre-left	12	30	10	6	4	10	19	23	114
	Green Party of Azmara Groonpartii âb Azmaara	Green politics Progressivism	Centre-left	11	27	7	5	4	9	17	21	101
	Blue and White – People's Movement Blau en Hyt – Folksstyringen	National liberalism Right-wing populism	Right-wing to far-right	7	21	5	3	3	11	19	19	88
	Socialist Party – Azmaran Left Sośalistiśpartii – Azmaariś Links	Democratic socialism Left-wing populism	Left-wing to far-left	7	19	6	3	3	11	18	18	85
	Grey Party of Azmara Grejpartii âb Azmara	Pensioners' interests Populism	Centre	6	13	5	3	2	9	11	12	61
	Generation Azmara – Vox Euclea Jeślâht Azmaara – Stem Okleja	Youth politics Euclofederalism	Centre-left to left-wing	7	15	4	3	2	4	7	13	55
	New Azmara – Popular Justice Ny Azmaara – Folksrehtstaat	Progressivism Minority rights	Centre-left to left-wing	9	11	3	3	2	4	5	10	47
	Working People's Party Arbeidiś Folkspartii	Revolutionary socialism Anti-capitalism	Far-left	4	11	2	N/A	N/A	5	5	13	40
	Good Governance Party Godrâgelingspartii	Participatory democracy Secular humanism	Centre to centre-left	5	5	5	3	N/A	5	5	5	33
	National Liberal Party Þyydiś Friihedspartii	Azmaran nationalism Right-wing populism	Far-right	4	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	4	5	6	25
	Free Alliance 08 Friibinden 08	Regionalism Federalism	Big tent	N/A	N/A	8	6	2	N/A	7	N/A	23
	Hunters' Party Jaagerenpartii	Agrarianism Social conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	N/A	N/A	3	3	2	3	3	7	21
	Socialist Kingdom Sośalistiś Kyninkryk	Joke party Socialist monarchism	Radical centre	7	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	6	19
	Liveable Groonbank Liibiś Groonbank	Regionalism Populism	Syncretic	N/A	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	17

Campaign

Issues

The campaign centred heavily on issues of the economy and the welfare state amid speculation of the Azmaran entry entering recession in 2023 as the result of international crises and the release of a report on the 16th February 2023 by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs arguing that the current design of Azmara's state-run defined benefit pension plan was unsustainable and that either the retirement age would have to rise from its current age of 62, employer and employee contributions would have to rise or that the system would need to be reformed. As such, debates would emerge between the main parties between what actions should be taken to mitigate the possibility of a recession and what reforms should be taken to the pension system to maintain its long-term sustainability, with the Workers' Party, Sotirian Democrats and Socialist Party proposing various increases in social insurance contributions and Gold Flame, The Radicals and the Green Party proposing raises in the retirement age alongside additional reforms.

The issue of immigration, integration and asylum also emerged, with parties debating the appropriate response for the Azmaran government to take in response to the Tsabaran refugee crisis, with Blue and White advocating for a strict assimilationist stance and a strict asylum policy, while the Workers' Party and Sotirian Democrats took a stance acknowledging the necessity of taking on refugees while emphasising the limits of Azmara's ability to take on large numbers of refugees and the need for refugees to integrate into Azmaran culture, while Gold Flame, The Radicals, the Green Party and the Socialist Party advocated more liberal approaches and the need to work multilaterally with other countries in Euclea to solve the issue.

Party campaigns

The Workers' Party and Sotirian Democrats both released their manifestos on the 31th March at events in Ostdyyk, Sompland and Mideltuun, Westmaark respectively. The Workers' Party manifesto, nicknamed the "cradle-to-grave manifesto" by the nation's largest papers, focused heavily on education, childcare and social care for the elderly and disabled, with proposed policies including the extension of free childcare to three and four year olds, the introduction of universal free school meals for lower primary school students, improving youth services and mental health support for upper primary and secondary students and investing in courses at work colleges to train larger amounts of carers. The Sotirian Democrats manifesto, meanwhile, focused on rural development with a key flagship policy of creating two new government funds. The first of these, the Agricultural Transition Fund, is proposed to help farmers and fishermen move towards more environmentally sustainable methods, while the second of these, the Rural Azmara Fund, is intended to give support for environmentally sustainable small businesses in rural Azmara and is intended to be combined with a regime of tax breaks for these.

Gold Flame, the Radicals and the Green Party released their manifestos on the 3rd April. Gold Flame's manifesto, released at an event in Ryksby, Groonbank, proposed significant public sector reforms by allowing secondary schools to take more control over their curriculum and administration to encourage specialisation, allowing hospitals within the Universal Healthcare Insurance Scheme more autonomy, reducing restrictions on for-profit hospitals and allowing employees to privately invest portions of their social insurance contributions and receive the returns as part of their pension. The party manifesto also advocated for liberalising employment and business registration law and allowing the private sale of cannabis. The Radical manifesto emphasised strongly Ana Freidriksdohter's work as Foreign Secretary, advocating the continuation of a strongly Euclophilic and human rights-focused foreign policy, with the party pledging to commit the Azmaran government to act on Paretian and Etrurian democratic backsliding. The party also pledged a liberalisation of euthanasia laws and the creation of a specific task force to tackle anti-LGBTQ hate crimes, and received controversy for a proposal to allow residents to block local developments they believed to have a negative effect.

The Green Party meanwhile emphasised a comprehensive plan to reform the country's social and environmental policies to reach carbon neutrality by 2035 through a large expansion of wind, solar and tidal energy, introducing a land value tax and building new garden villages to tackle high housing prices in the Bojnersteden region. Blue and White ran a campaign emphasising the need for strict policies on crime and immigration and for cutting the size of Azmaran public sector bureaucracy to allow for tax cuts, while the Socialist Party ran a campaign advocating for stronger redistributive policies including a wealth tax.

Discussion of possible coalitions emerged at various points in the campaign, with Anasdohter stating she would "find it difficult" to work with either Gold Flame or Blue and White in a coalition. Co-operation with Blue and White was also ruled out by the Radicals, Greens, Socialists and Gold Flame, while the latter two parties also ruled out co-operation with each other. Ana Freidriksdohter also stated that she would wish to be Foreign Secretary in any government the Radicals were to serve in. A possible Workers' Party-Sotirian Democrat coalition, termed a "Hennish government" was discussed publicly by Azmara's largest papers, yet when asked about the possibility of the coalition Anasdohter said her preference was "the re-election of the current government to a majority".

Slogans

Party		Original slogan	Estmerish translation
	Workers' Party	Ân beter taakomst, taaśamen!	A better future, together!
	Gold Flame	Stefnest foor kyysen!	Vote for choice!
	The Radicals	Om de haart âb Okleja	At the heart of Euclea
	Sotirian Democrats	Kampen foor Azmaara	Fighting for Azmara
	Green Party	Ân behaagenlyker en sundiśer þyyd.	A nicer and healthier country.
	Blue and White	Horen taa forjeten Azmaariśen	Listening to forgotten Azmarans
	Socialist Party	De rehtiś Azmaariś links	The true Azmaran left
	Grey Party	Reden wyn renten	Let's save our pensions
Sources:

Debates

2023 Azmaran legislative election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present    I  Invitee   S  Surrogate    NI  Not invited
			Ap	GF	R	SF	Gp	BH	Sp	Audience	Ref.
5 April	ARF-1	Frei Henrikssun	P Anasdohter	P Aleksaanderssun	P Freidriksdohter	P Jorśsun	P Jonsdohter	P Maartensdohter	P Karlsdohter
6 April	ARF-3	Maark Jonssun-Leclercq	P Niinassun	P Alanssun	P Mâþeissun	P Johannsun	P Krysdohter	P Maartensdohter	P Karlsdohter
12 April	Kanel-3	Ana Jonsdohter	P Anasdohter	P Aleksaanderssun	P Freidriksdohter	P Jorśsun	P Jonsdohter	P Maartensdohter	P Karlsdohter
14 April	ARF-1	Kaþeriina Eryksdohter	P Anasdohter	P Aleksaanderssun	P Freidriksdohter	P Jorśsun	P Jonsdohter	P Maartensdohter	P Karlsdohter

Opinion polls

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Results

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Workers' Party	2,062,980	25.99	43	-8
	Gold Flame	1,307,754	16.48	25	-5
	Sotirian Democrats	1,296,909	16.34	26	+10
	The Radicals	734,758	9.26	13	−6
	Green Party	637,784	8.04	12	−2
	Blue and White	557,122	7.02	11	+5
	Socialist Party	400,634	5.05	7	+2
	Grey Party	279,361	3.52	4	+1
	Free Alliance 08	225,317	2.84	4	0
	Generation Azmara	201,152	2.53	3	New
	Liveable Groonbank	126,757	1.60	2	New
	New Azmara	40,294	0.51	0	-2
	Socialist Kingdom	23,932	0.30	0	0
	Working People's Party	14,390	0.18	0	0
	National Liberal Party	13,548	0.17	0	0
	Hunters' Party	8,343	0.11	0	0
	Good Governance Party	6,335	0.08	0	0
Total		7,937,370	100.00	150	0
Valid votes		7,937,370	99.39
Invalid/blank votes		48,372	0.61
Total votes		7,985,742	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		8,460,460	94.39
Source: Ministerium foor Inlandssaken

By province

Region	Workers'		SF		GF		Radical		Green		B&H		Socialist		Grey		FB08		JA		LG		Total seats
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Aalmsted	25.6	4	3.2	-	18.8	3	18.3	3	14.0	2	1.0	-	5.6	1	5.7	1			7.2	1			15
Groonbank	24.8	10	10.0	4	27.1	11	5.8	2	6.1	2	5.3	2	4.9	2	4.9	2			2.8	1	6.4	2	38
Haadland	18.6	2	11.0	1	8.8	1	25.0	3	13.0	2	6.5	1	6.5	1	0.5	-	7.9	1	0.8	-			12
Hytklif	20.2	2	23.9	2	13.9	1	9.3	1	1.7	-	2.9	-	1.4	-	5.0	-	20.7	2	0.4	-			8
Nordberg	28.1	2	36.7	3	11.7	-	3.8	-	2.9	-	1.4	-	2.0	-	12.0	1	0.5	-	0.7	-			6
Ostlaak	31.3	6	16.9	3	13.3	2	5.3	1	9.8	2	11.0	2	8.0	1	2.0	-			1.0	-			17
Sompland	27.4	8	17.5	5	9.5	2	6.8	1	9.0	2	13.8	4	4.8	1	2.0	-	6.7	1	0.9	-			24
Westmaark	27.6	9	25.6	8	14.3	5	8.0	2	6.3	2	6.8	2	4.4	1	2.0	-			3.7	1			30
Azmara	26.0	43	16.3	26	16.5	25	9.3	13	8.0	12	7.0	11	5.1	7	3.5	4	2.8	4	2.5	3	1.6	2	150

Voter demographics

Demographic		Size	Workers'	GF	SF	Radical	Green	BeH	Socialist	Others
Total vote		100%	26%	16%	16%	9%	8%	7%	5%	12%
Gender
Men		49%	24%	17%	18%	7%	6%	8%	7%	13%
Women		51%	28%	15%	14%	12%	10%	6%	3%	12%
Age
16–24 years old		11%	21%	18%	7%	15%	17%	3%	7%	12%
25–49 years old		41%	26%	19%	13%	10%	9%	8%	4%	11%
50–64 years old		25%	25%	16%	18%	10%	6%	7%	4%	14%
65 and older		23%	29%	12%	25%	5%	5%	7%	7%	10%
Educational attainment
Did not graduate
High school (ARWP/SWP)
High school (GWP)
University graduate
Occupation
Blue collar
White collar/entrepreneur
Public sector
Self-employed
Source: JuGov exit poll

Aftermath and government formation

The results saw the Workers' Party take further losses after having spent six years in power, with Anasdohter commenting that the results were "disappointing" but noted that the party was "still unambiguously the country's largest political movement", stating that she would aim to continue on as Thingspeaker. Losses sustained by her coalition partners in the Radicals and the Green Party meant that the outgoing government lost its parliamentary majority - the Radicals lost six seats and the Greens lost two.

Despite having surged in opinion polls in early 2021 to nearly a quarter of the vote, Gold Flame made a loss of five seats on their 2020 performance, a result about which Aleksaanderssun commented that the party had "failed to communicate the need for pro-choice reforms to the Azmaran government" but that the party would "not apologise for its defence of liberal values". Conversely, the similarly centre-right Sotirian Democrats made significant gains in the election for their best performance in both seat count and popular vote share since 2008, with Henrik Jorśsun's leadership and popularity in rural Azmara attributed to the party's improvement in performance. Westmaark Today's Hank Lorenssun commented that, in comparison to the party's disastrous 2020 campaign, the party had "learned how to successfully weld populism with the values of Sotirian democracy."

Blue and White experienced a significant breakthrough in Hilda Maartensdohter's native Sompland, with Maartensdohter being receiving the second-most individual votes of any candidate after Sofija Anasdohter. Maartensdohter in an interview stated that traditional Workers' Party voters in Sompland and Ostlaak, where her party also saw a strong result, had "had enough of the party's half-measures and inability to stick up for them against Bojnersteden elites". She also stated that while she did not expect to be invited to government formation talks, she and her party would "stick up for forgotten Azmarans in the halls of power".

Leif Freissun of the Workers' Party was re-elected as President of the Folksmot on 17th April, receiving votes from the outgoing government parties, the Socialist Party, Generation Azmara and Liveable Groonbank, as well as the Sotirian Democrats in exchange for the Workers' Party supporting their candidate Alana Stefansdohter as Deputy President. This move led to speculation by many journalists that the two parties were in negotiations to form a government, yet this was denied by Anasdohter, who said that she would send out a questionnaire to all ten other party leaders asking about their compatibility in policy "over the next few days".