2022 Hacyinia-Lavana war

2022 Hacyinia-Lavana War
Part of Hacyinian-Lavanan wars and conflicts
Hacyinia in Yellow, Lavana in Purple, and the Yoloten in Red. Pre-November 9th borders of the Yoloten in dashed line.
Date 9–19 November 2022 (2022-11-09 – 2022-11-19) (1 week and 3 days) Location Yoloten DMZ, Hacyinia-Lavana border Result Emessa 2022 Ceasefire agreement New DMZ in the Yoloten Loss of territory in the Yoloten by the PAMFY Strengthening of Hacyinia-Zorasan relations Investigation of Hacyinian Chemical weapons sites
Belligerents
Lavana Yoloten Alleged Chistovodia Supported by Dezevau East Miersa Senria South Kabu	Hacyinia Zorasan Yoloten Loyalist Federation (YLF) (October 1-30) League for the Liberation of the Yoloten (LLY) (October 1-30) Alleged Ajahadya Supported by Nainan Shangea Rwizikuru
Commanders and leaders
Laina Keomany (Premier of Lavana) Kaipo Nhidomou (Minister of Foreign Affairs) Khudus Dhijivodhi (Minister of Defense) Phet Rustemegrath (Chief of Army Staff) Taras Rasuvong (Admiral of Navy Staff) Ligdan Bekbola (Chief of Air Staff) (Gen.)Tsolmon Bakhtzhany (Gen.)Khoril Chanthavong (Gen.)Dastan Khamsomphou (Adm.)Cesrang Vongphakdy	Makbule Arda Khan (Khan of Hacyinia) Taetaerqan Aelborty (Defense Minister) Rahim Ali Haftar (State President of Zorasan) Sadavir Hatami (Defense Minister)
Strength
225,000 soldiers 100 aircraft 35,000 soldiers	250,000 soldiers 53 aircraft 54,000 soldiers 100 aircraft
Casualties and losses
22,000 dead, wounded or missing soldiers 106 Lavanan civilians killed 184 Lavanan civilians injured 6 Lavanan civilians missing 1,535 Lavanans displaced 4,000 dead, wounded or missing soldiers 211 Yoloten civilians killed 842 Hacyinian civilians injured 445 Lavanan civilians missing 98,901 Yolotens displaced	21,000 dead, wounded or missing soldiers 322 Hacyinian civilians killed 4,626 Hacyinian civilians injured 99 Hacyinian civilians missing 240,000 Hacyinians displaced 1,710 soldiers dead, wounded or missing

The 2022 Hacyinia-Lavana War or 2nd Yoloten War was an armed conflict in 2022 that took place in the disputed region of the Yoloten and Hacyinia. It was a major escalation of an unresolved conflict over the region, involving Hacyinia, Lavana, the self-declared Pro-Lavanan breakaway state of the Yoloten, and Zorasan in support of Hacyinia. The Yoloten was a Princely state under a protectorate agreement with Estmere at the time of the Partition of Southeast Coius in 1940. The large Oroqic population, and several prominent politicians in the state desired joining Hacyinia and were assigned to do so by Estmerish authorities. The Badist Kachai Zeja of the state opted to join Lavana instead. Issues regarding partition prompted the 1940 First Galshir conflict, where the Yoloten was legally and internationally recognized to be incorporated into Hacyinia, in contrast with all other territories taken by Hacyinia in 1940. In 1992, Lavana invaded Hacyinia in the First Yoloten War in support of Socialist secessionists, and established the People's Republic of the Yoloten. The war lasted for 10 days and resulted in Hacyinian victory, with the Yoloten ceding territory. The defeat ignited anti-government protests in Lavana. A Demilitarized zone was established by the Community of Nations in the Yoloten, replacing one established previously. This was the first major engagement between Hacyinia and Lavana since the 2004 agreement.

The conflict was preceeded by military buildup was initiated by Lavana responding to the Mei Phong Mall car bomb attack, on October 1st, 2022.(during which 26 people were killed, and 33 were wounded), along with shelling in the breakaway republic of the Yoloten, by Pro-Hacyinian militias. Lavana claimed that Hacyinia had violated the 2004 agreement by failing to properly deal with militias in the demilitarized zone separating the Hacyinian army and the Provisional Administrative and Military Front of the Yoloten (PAMFY), which had launched the attacks. The Yoloten Loyalist Federation (YLF) claimed responsibility on the day of the bombing for the attacks, leading to major Lavanan security operations to catch the perpetrators, and prevent further attacks. Following numerous claims of further attacks.

On October 3rd, Lavana launched airstrikes in the DMZ with the knowledge of Hacyinia, prompting condemnation. The attacks quickly made Hacyinian Khan Makbule Arda, to enter into closer relations with Zorasan, obtaining diplomatic support, along with military equipment. Although initially unmoved by such diplomatic moves , a rapid timeline in the deployment of Zorasani equipment and sudden Zorasani military movements, prompted Lavana and the PAMFY to step down. Following major ballistic attacks by Hacyinia on the PAMFY in the 8th, in retaliation for shelling. Zorasan and Hacyinia conducted military training during the next 3 days from the 11th to the 14th of October.

Both countries remained on high alert, and military buildup in the Hacyinian-Lavanan border continued, along with the Yoloten DMZ. On October 30, Hacyinia incorporated the pro-Hacyinian militias into its armed forces prompting the beginning of tensions again. Lavanan authorities claimed that Yoloten militias were to use Chemical Weapons in terrorist attacks against Lavana, several close calls including cyberattacks, and misinformation campaigns by both Hacyinia and Zorasan. Culminating in a major incursion by Hacyinian special forces into Lavana, which were reported to have carried Sarin to perpetrate terrorist attacks in Lavana. The country utilized the threat of Hacyinian chemical terrorism to justify its invasion of Hacyinia.

Prelude

At noon on 1 October 2022, a car bomb exploded on the east side of Mei Phong Mall, close to the eastern entrance of the mall and directly in front of an electronics store. The blast killed 26 people, and 33 were wounded. Among the dead was a Chistovodian woman.

The blast which occurred exactly at 12:04pm, which concurred with Premier Laina Keomany's noon address which had started 4 minutes earlier, in celebration of the countries new Constitution Day holiday. The blast could be heard on national television, and Keomany was dragged by security away from the stage after she stopped her speech in confusion. The car bomb was located close to a series of electronics stores which were playing the speech, the sidewalks near the car bomb were completely filled by watchers of the address which had gathered to watch the event. Authorities struggled to reach the bombsite as the streets of the city were completely blocked by traffic, since Lavana's Independence day was on October 3rd, Lavanan citizens had a 4 day weekend, allowing many to leave the capital for the countryside . Initially as National television was completely blacked out for 35 minutes, reports of a new coup became prevalent, specially as rumors of increased military and police activity in the streets became known. Television announcers reported the attack to Lavanans on national television at 12:40pm, announcing that all Constitution day activities had been cancelled for fear of terrorist attack. The Lavanan security forces were deployed to the streets of all major cities, and Pers was officially cordoned off, as a manhunt for the perpetrators began in Pers.

Smoke rises from the Mei Phong Mall, on October 1st, 2022.

The Yoloten Loyalist Federation (YLF) released a video at 12:40pm claiming responsibility for the car bomb, and decrying Lavanan imperialism and renewed commitment against Oroqics. The demilitarized Zone between Hacyinia and the PAMFY, also experienced shelling as Hacyinian militias began firing against targets in the Yoloten, prompting PAMFY response. Lavana officially requested the Hacyinian ambassador to request Hacyinia uphold the 2004 treaty, which states that Hacyinia must act against militias.. Hacyinia promptly condemned the attacks, but criticized PAMFY shelling of civilian targets in the DMZ, along with aggressive Lavanan posturing who closed all border checkpoints, and threatened to invade Hacyinian airspace. Hacyinia received demands that Lavana demanded that Hacyinia stop the activities of all Hacyinian militias, provide any available intelligence, apprehend the organisation's leaders and their access to all financial assets. Some believed that Lavana gave Hacyinia 72 hours to act, or it would do so unilaterally .

Lavana proceeded to move its armed to their highest readiness level, and enacted its mobilization plans for major movements towards the border. The capital of Pers was locked down, and for 48 hours the city ground to a halt as thousands of security forces swarmed the city looking for the YLF operatives, which had been identified as Dodai Bortei, and Filib Bekzhangsy, by Lavanan intelligence that afternoon . Misinformation by both Hacyinian militias and unaware Lavanans rumored of further bomb attacks, leading to airports, shipyards, military bases, public events, media organizations, and government buildings to be reinforced or closed down between the 1st of October and the 4th of October. All events planned for Lavana's Independence Day celebrations were shelved nationwide. It was estimated that 50,000 police officers, 10,000 soldiers, 3,000 airmen, and 30,000 National Guard personnel were mobilized to provide security to Lavanan cities and facilities over a two week period following the bombing. Lavana performed its largest mobilization since the 1992 Yoloten War, as it moved forces towards the border with Hacyinia and the Yoloten, in preparation to enter the Yoloten to provide security.

October Standoff

October 1st-9th

The PAMFY which had begun returning fire to militia positions on its territory and DMZ, immediately after being shelled. Lavana gave permission to the PAMFY to launch a full retaliation within the hour. The shelling and fighting between the 1st and 4th of October left a reported 45 dead civilians according to the Hacyinian Ministry of Health. Initial reports stated that Lavana had moved troops into the Yoloten, or aircraft had entered into Hacyinian airspace, all were proven to be false however. A Hacyinian delegation sent to Pers, following the summoning of the Hacyinian ambassador, attempted to calm the situation. Lavana was reported to have demanded Hacyinian action against the militias deployed in the DMZ, while it ordered several units to deploy to the east of the country, prompting Hacyinia to do the same.

PAMFY fighting against militias in the Yoloten and DMZ, escalated to its highest since 2009, which had provoked a Lavanan buildup on the border. Lavana conducted airstrikes against militia positions in the Yoloten in support of the PAMFY, the first such strikes since 2000, Lavana conducted these airstrikes with their aircraft having their transponders on. Reports stated that Hacyinia was aware of the strikes, as they had been informed beforehand. Although of limited impact, it was believed that Lavana had sought to threaten Hacyinia into dealing with their militias or threaten having Lavanan assets enter the Yoloten to attack them. The attack prompted condemnation primarily from Zorasan, as the airstrikes were seen as a violation of Hacyinian airspace. PAMFY forces launched several attacks with armored vehicles and artillery at militia positions from the 4th to 5th of October.

The growing threat of Lavanan forces in Hacyinia, prompted Hacyinian Khan Makbule Arda to travel to Zorasan. Zorasan entered a variety of deals with Hacyinia, aimed at boosting Hacyinia’s military capabilities, and improving mutual trade. Despite Zorasani warnings, PAMFY forces continued attacks with Lavanan air support. Lavana conducted a major airborne operation close to the Horhoo border crossing, where it intercepted and arrested the two wanted bombers, Dodai Bortei, and Filib Bekzhangsy. The escalation prompted harsh comments from Zorasan, who began re arranging deliveries of equipment to Emessa to accomodate a rapid deployment schedule to Hacyinia.

Apartment building struck in the Yoloten on October 11th

Hacyinia conducted a missile strike inside the Yoloten, the first such attack since the 90's. The attack was said to have have close to 200 dead in the Yoloten, while the PAMFY claimed small casualties among its forces instead claiming that Hacyinia had struck civilian areas. This was followed on the heels of aggressive rhetoric from Hacyinia, and perceived Lavanan inaction. Lavana reacted negatively calling Hacyinia a terrorist state, with the Premier claiming that conflict was inevitable if Lavanan security concerns were not met. The relatively calm response of Lavanan authorities to the missile strike in the Yoloten indicated a more worried approach to the matter, and increasing Hacyinian overconfidence. The entry of Zorasan into the crisis is cited as the biggest failure in Lavanan diplomatic history, as Zorasan changed the entire panorama and removed Lavanan freedom of action.

October 10th-29th

Zorasani forces conducting an exercise in western Hacyinia

Fearing possible imminent conflict, Hacyinia and Zorasan conducted joint exercises inside Hacyinia from October 11th to the 14th. With the clear intention of training on countering a Lavanan incursion into Hacyinia. Following the exercise Hacyinia and Zorasan agreed on the temporal deployment of 6,000 Zorasani troops inside Hacyinia, along with the establishment of several anti-air sites over the country. Lavana signalled its intentions to diplomatically resolve the conflict, and negotiations between all parties took place in Senria, such meetings occurred in the backdrop of continuing Lavanan build up in the west of the country as it amassed troops all over the border. Estimates ranged between 100,000 to 150,000 Lavanan troops on the western border. Zorasan continued training, while Hacyinia provided advisors and ammunition to militias fighting the PAMFY. Senria expressed worry at the worsening situation in the Yoloten on October 10.

Negotiations in Senria continued over several days with limited success. Lavanan diplomats travelled the world looking to obtain reassurances from allies, and other parties in what increasingly became a cooling down of relations. The PAMFY claimed that fighting between October 16th, and 19th had left 1 civilian dead, and another two injured after militia use of mortars on residential areas.

Lavanan forces continued amassing on the western border throughout October.

Hacyinia called on Lavana to stop the buildup in the border, as it created unnecessary tension between both countries. Hacyinia stated that 200,000 Lavanan troops had been deployed to the border, along with their heavy equipment. Zorasan supported those statements, and provided satellite footage of units regularly deployed in eastern Lavana 10km's from the Hacyinian border. Lavana responded by claiming that it held the right as a sovereign state to move troops within its border as it saw fit.

Many analysts believed that Lavana was attempting to bully Hacyinia into turning in the militias, however it had been too aggressive and forced Hacyinia to meet with Zorasan. Lavana was forced to maintain an expensive mobilization in the west of the country to ensure its demands were met positively. Other analysts believed that Lavana was looking to only enter the Yoloten, rather than engage Hacyinian forces elsewhere. Online video and images confirmed the presence of elite Lavanan units in the west of the country, with a Le Monde article detailing the movement of the 101st Guards Armored Brigade, the premier unit in Pers to the Lavanan city of Hatgna. Satellite imagery also showed a buildup of Lavanan air assets in the west of the country, along with the bolstering of logistical hubs and transportation routes. Analysts noted that Lavana could had conducted a full scale invasion on October 30th, but opted against such an option to continue improving its logistics, along with improving weather conditions. Due to the nature of Lavanan diplomatic posture, it made no attempt to hide its buildup.

October 30th-November 8th

On October 30th, Hacyinia announced the creation of volunteer battalions to bolster its forces, the move legalized and incorporated paramilitary and militia forces into the Hacyinian military. The move absolutely undermined Lavanan demands that such militias turned over for legal proceedings in both Lavana and the Yoloten. The move seemed in Lavanan eyes to justify and normalize terrorist actions, and voided the 2004 ceasefire agreement. Which most prominently kept Lavanan troops out of the Yoloten. Lavana warned that such a move could allow paramilitary, and terrorists to gain access to Chemical Weapons and target Lavana. This was followed by numerous claimed terror threats, and general fear regarding terrorist attacks on the country, which only increased tensions. At the same time, the Lavanan military cancelled all leave, and called on its reservists, in a move mirrored by Zorasan and Hacyinia. Lavanan forces were reported to be completely concentrated on the western border, with Zorasan politically preparing for conflict, with public calls for war with Lavana reported in numerous cities. Likewise Shangea and Senria announced their support and opposition to the crisis. A speech by the Khan of Hacyinia Makbule Arda Khan, resulted in renewed heightened tensions.

Incident in Vinalian Chess tournament

To signify the scale of the conflict, a minor chess tournament in Vinalia was involved in the tensions. When a Lavanan and a Hacyinian player were involved in an altercation on November 2nd. The use of the controversial En passant move, prompted an exchange between the two players. Lavana had regularly branded Hacyinia as a terrorist state in international competitions. In some instances, refusing to showcase Hacyinian delegations or players.

Casualties

On October 1st, on the Mei Phong Mall car bomb attack 26 dead, and 33 wounded.

576 Zorasans killed, 5 Officers killed

322 Hacyinian, 102 Lavanan, and 211 Yoloten civilians killed 99 Hacyinian, 6 Lavanan, and 201 Yoloten civilians missing 4,626 Hacyinian, 184 Lavanan, and 842 Yoloten civilians injured 99 Hacyinian, 3 Lavanan, and 445 Yoloten civilians captured YY XXXX and YY XXXX journalists injured 240,000 Hacyinians and 50,000 Yolotens displaced.

International reactions

• Ajahadya Ajahadya expressed the need for peace and calm in the region. But its support was firmly behind Hacyinia. Although not involved directly in the conflict. Lavana and the Yoloten claimed to have been attacked by Ajahadyan soldiers in the North Yoloten, stating that they wore Zorasani uniforms.