2023 Azmaran legislative election
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Parliamentary elections were held in the Commonwealth of Azmara on 16 April 2023[2] to elect 150 members of the Folksmot for the 2023-2026 term.
After the previous 2020 election a centre-left coalition government had been formed by Sofija Anasdohter of the Workers' Party, with The Radicals and the Green Party serving as junior partners. Elections were announced by Anasdohter's government on the 3rd March 2023 in accordance with the Basic Law[2], and were confirmed on the 8th March as President Harald Alekssun dissolved the Folksmot. Issues of the economy, rural development the future of the welfare state, immigration and climate change dominated a relatively uncontroversial election campaign.
While remaining the largest party with 43 seats and 26.0% of the vote, the Workers' Party took a significant hit in popularity as it lost eight seats from its 2020 result yet retained a plurality of the vote in the provinces of Aalmsted, Westmaark, Sompland and Ostlaak. The party lost its plurality in Groonbank to Gold Flame, who nevertheless lost five seats for a total of 25 seats and finished second in the popular vote with 16.5%. Despite coming third in the popular vote with 16.3%, the Sotirian Democrats under Henrik Jorśsun managed a significant comeback to finish second in seat count with 26 seats, winning a plurality in the sparsely-populated provinces of Hytklif and Nordberg.
Anasdohter's coalition partners also took significant losses to the extent that the incumbent government lost its majority. While retaining its plurality in Haadland, the Radicals lost nearly a third of their 2020 vote share and six seats across the country, finishing fourth with 9.3% of the vote, while the Green Party lost two seats to finish fifth with twelve seats. The two parties finished narrowly ahead of Blue and White, who after rebranding under Hilda Maartensdohter's leadership surged to eleven seats due to a surge of support in the south of Maartensdohter's native Sompland. The Socialist Party also saw mild gains as they rebounded to seven seats.
The country's minor parties saw relatively decent fortunes, with the Grey Party winning an extra seat and doubling its vote share off a strong campaign against raising the minimum pension age while the regionalist Free Alliance 08 managed to maintain its gains from the previous election. Two new parties also made their debut in the legislature - the progressive Generation Azmara coalition, who won a seat each in Aalmsted, Groonbank and Wetmaark, and the localist Liveable Groonbank, who managed to take two seats on a platform promising to tackle the cost of living in suburban Groonbank.
Background
The previous election on the 19th April 2020 saw the Workers' Party led by Thingspeaker Eryk Jorśsun win the most seats with 51, five down from the 2017 election[3]. Negotiations would begin between the Workers' Party, The Radicals and the Green Party in order to form a government, with tensions emerging between the Workers' Party and their two prospective coalition partners over the Northern Forum's funding of the Tuaisceart-Süd II pipeline connecting Caldia and Werania, which the latter parties opposed on environmental grounds yet divided Workers' Party parliamentarians and ministers.
After public disputes over the party's environmental policy and mass environmental protests triggered the resignation of three pro-pipeline ministers[4], Eryk Jorśsun would announce his resignation as Workers' Party leader on 20th May, being succeeded by Internal Affairs Secretary Sofija Anasdohter after an uncontested leadership election on 1st July. After this, a coalition agreement between the three parties would be ratified by the 10th July, with Anasdohter being instituted as Thingspeaker on the 13th July with 84 of 150 Folksmot members voting in favour of her institution.
After the passage of an amendment to the Basic Law of Azmara, the 2023 election became the first election in which 16-17 year olds were able to vote.
Electoral system
The 150 seats of the Folksmot are elected via the Wiljâmssun method of party-list proportional representation in eight constituencies coterminous with the seven provinces of Azmara and the Free City of Aalmsted. Open lists are used and as such voters cast their votes for a specific candidate on a list submitted by a party and party candidates are elected in the order of personal votes they receive proportionally to the share of votes the party receives in the constituency. No national threshold is present and as such any party that receives enough votes for a seat in any constituency is elected.
The 2023 election is the first since the establishment of a national age-based franchise in 1801 in which 16 and 17 year olds are able to vote and stand in after the passage of the 15th Amendment to the Basic Law on the 6th November 2022, which is thought to have enlarged the pool of eligible voters by around 150,000.
Constituency | Seats |
---|---|
Aalmsted | 15 |
Groonbank | 38 |
Haadland | 12 |
Hytklif | 8 |
Nordberg | 6 |
Ostlaak | 17 |
Sompland | 24 |
Westmaark | 30 |
Political parties
For a party or list to stand in the election it needs to present the equivalent amount of signatures from eligible voters as 0.33% of the votes cast in the previous election, or the equivalent of half a seat in the Folksmot - for the 2020 election this was 25,789 eligible voters. This threshold was met by 17 lists by the 26th March nomination deadline, of which 10 have submitted candidates in all eight constituencies. Parties must additionally pay a deposit of €500 per candidate registered and there is a requirement that to stand in a constituency the party must stand at least two candidates.
Campaign
Issues
The campaign centred heavily on issues of the economy and the welfare state amid speculation of the Azmaran entry entering recession in 2023 as the result of international crises and the release of a report on the 16th February 2023 by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs arguing that the current design of Azmara's state-run defined benefit pension plan was unsustainable and that either the retirement age would have to rise from its current age of 62, employer and employee contributions would have to rise or that the system would need to be reformed. As such, debates would emerge between the main parties between what actions should be taken to mitigate the possibility of a recession and what reforms should be taken to the pension system to maintain its long-term sustainability, with the Workers' Party, Sotirian Democrats and Socialist Party proposing various increases in social insurance contributions and Gold Flame, The Radicals and the Green Party proposing raises in the retirement age alongside additional reforms.
The issue of immigration, integration and asylum also emerged, with parties debating the appropriate response for the Azmaran government to take in response to the Tsabaran refugee crisis, with Blue and White advocating for a strict assimilationist stance and a strict asylum policy, while the Workers' Party and Sotirian Democrats took a stance acknowledging the necessity of taking on refugees while emphasising the limits of Azmara's ability to take on large numbers of refugees and the need for refugees to integrate into Azmaran culture, while Gold Flame, The Radicals, the Green Party and the Socialist Party advocated more liberal approaches and the need to work multilaterally with other countries in Euclea to solve the issue.
Party campaigns
The Workers' Party and Sotirian Democrats both released their manifestos on the 31th March at events in Ostdyyk, Sompland and Mideltuun, Westmaark respectively. The Workers' Party manifesto, nicknamed the "cradle-to-grave manifesto" by the nation's largest papers, focused heavily on education, childcare and social care for the elderly and disabled, with proposed policies including the extension of free childcare to three and four year olds, the introduction of universal free school meals for lower primary school students, improving youth services and mental health support for upper primary and secondary students and investing in courses at work colleges to train larger amounts of carers. The Sotirian Democrats manifesto, meanwhile, focused on rural development with a key flagship policy of creating two new government funds. The first of these, the Agricultural Transition Fund, is proposed to help farmers and fishermen move towards more environmentally sustainable methods, while the second of these, the Rural Azmara Fund, is intended to give support for environmentally sustainable small businesses in rural Azmara and is intended to be combined with a regime of tax breaks for these.
Gold Flame, the Radicals and the Green Party released their manifestos on the 3rd April. Gold Flame's manifesto, released at an event in Ryksby, Groonbank, proposed significant public sector reforms by allowing secondary schools to take more control over their curriculum and administration to encourage specialisation, allowing hospitals within the Universal Healthcare Insurance Scheme more autonomy, reducing restrictions on for-profit hospitals and allowing employees to privately invest portions of their social insurance contributions and receive the returns as part of their pension. The party manifesto also advocated for liberalising employment and business registration law and allowing the private sale of cannabis. The Radical manifesto emphasised strongly Ana Freidriksdohter's work as Foreign Secretary, advocating the continuation of a strongly Euclophilic and human rights-focused foreign policy, with the party pledging to commit the Azmaran government to act on Paretian and Etrurian democratic backsliding. The party also pledged a liberalisation of euthanasia laws and the creation of a specific task force to tackle anti-LGBTQ hate crimes, and received controversy for a proposal to allow residents to block local developments they believed to have a negative effect.
The Green Party meanwhile emphasised a comprehensive plan to reform the country's social and environmental policies to reach carbon neutrality by 2035 through a large expansion of wind, solar and tidal energy, introducing a land value tax and building new garden villages to tackle high housing prices in the Bojnersteden region. Blue and White ran a campaign emphasising the need for strict policies on crime and immigration and for cutting the size of Azmaran public sector bureaucracy to allow for tax cuts, while the Socialist Party ran a campaign advocating for stronger redistributive policies including a wealth tax.
Discussion of possible coalitions emerged at various points in the campaign, with Anasdohter stating she would "find it difficult" to work with either Gold Flame or Blue and White in a coalition. Co-operation with Blue and White was also ruled out by the Radicals, Greens, Socialists and Gold Flame, while the latter two parties also ruled out co-operation with each other. Ana Freidriksdohter also stated that she would wish to be Foreign Secretary in any government the Radicals were to serve in. A possible Workers' Party-Sotirian Democrat coalition, termed a "Hennish government" was discussed publicly by Azmara's largest papers, yet when asked about the possibility of the coalition Anasdohter said her preference was "the re-election of the current government to a majority".
Slogans
Party | Original slogan | Estmerish translation | |
---|---|---|---|
Workers' Party | Ân beter taakomst, taaśamen! | A better future, together! | |
Gold Flame | Stefnest foor kyysen! | Vote for choice! | |
The Radicals | Om de haart âb Okleja | At the heart of Euclea | |
Sotirian Democrats | Kampen foor Azmaara | Fighting for Azmara | |
Green Party | Ân behaagenlyker en sundiśer þyyd. | A nicer and healthier country. | |
Blue and White | Horen taa forjeten Azmaariśen | Listening to forgotten Azmarans | |
Socialist Party | De rehtiś Azmaariś links | The true Azmaran left | |
Grey Party | Reden wyn renten | Let's save our pensions | |
Sources: |
Debates
Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | P Present[n 3] I Invitee S Surrogate[n 4] NI Not invited | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ap | GF | R | SF | Gp | BH | Sp | Audience | Ref. | ||||
5 April | ARF-1 | Frei Henrikssun | P Anasdohter |
P Aleksaanderssun |
P Freidriksdohter |
P Jorśsun |
P Jonsdohter |
P Maartensdohter |
P Karlsdohter |
|||
6 April | ARF-3[n 5] | Maark Jonssun-Leclercq | P Niinassun |
P Alanssun |
P Mâþeissun |
P Johannsun |
P Krysdohter |
P Maartensdohter |
P Karlsdohter |
|||
12 April | Kanel-3 | Ana Jonsdohter | P Anasdohter |
P Aleksaanderssun |
P Freidriksdohter |
P Jorśsun |
P Jonsdohter |
P Maartensdohter |
P Karlsdohter |
|||
14 April | ARF-1 | Kaþeriina Eryksdohter | P Anasdohter |
P Aleksaanderssun |
P Freidriksdohter |
P Jorśsun |
P Jonsdohter |
P Maartensdohter |
P Karlsdohter |
Opinion polls
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Results
Party | Votes | % | Seats | +/– | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Workers' Party | 2,062,980 | 25.99 | 43 | -8 | |
Gold Flame | 1,307,754 | 16.48 | 25 | -5 | |
Sotirian Democrats | 1,296,909 | 16.34 | 26 | +10 | |
The Radicals | 734,758 | 9.26 | 13 | −6 | |
Green Party | 637,784 | 8.04 | 12 | −2 | |
Blue and White | 557,122 | 7.02 | 11 | +5 | |
Socialist Party | 400,634 | 5.05 | 7 | +2 | |
Grey Party | 279,361 | 3.52 | 4 | +1 | |
Free Alliance 08 | 225,317 | 2.84 | 4 | 0 | |
Generation Azmara | 201,152 | 2.53 | 3 | New | |
Liveable Groonbank | 126,757 | 1.60 | 2 | New | |
New Azmara | 40,294 | 0.51 | 0 | -2 | |
Socialist Kingdom | 23,932 | 0.30 | 0 | 0 | |
Working People's Party | 14,390 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | |
National Liberal Party | 13,548 | 0.17 | 0 | 0 | |
Hunters' Party | 8,343 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | |
Good Governance Party | 6,335 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | |
Total | 7,937,370 | 100.00 | 150 | 0 | |
Valid votes | 7,937,370 | 99.39 | |||
Invalid/blank votes | 48,372 | 0.61 | |||
Total votes | 7,985,742 | 100.00 | |||
Registered voters/turnout | 8,460,460 | 94.39 | |||
Source: Ministerium foor Inlandssaken |
By province
Region | Workers' | SF | GF | Radical | Green | B&H | Socialist | Grey | FB08 | JA | LG | Total seats | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | ||
Aalmsted | 25.6 | 4 | 3.2 | - | 18.8 | 3 | 18.3 | 3 | 14.0 | 2 | 1.0 | - | 5.6 | 1 | 5.7 | 1 | 7.2 | 1 | 15 | ||||
Groonbank | 24.8 | 10 | 10.0 | 4 | 27.1 | 11 | 5.8 | 2 | 6.1 | 2 | 5.3 | 2 | 4.9 | 2 | 4.9 | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | 6.4 | 2 | 38 | ||
Haadland | 18.6 | 2 | 11.0 | 1 | 8.8 | 1 | 25.0 | 3 | 13.0 | 2 | 6.5 | 1 | 6.5 | 1 | 0.5 | - | 7.9 | 1 | 0.8 | - | 12 | ||
Hytklif | 20.2 | 2 | 23.9 | 2 | 13.9 | 1 | 9.3 | 1 | 1.7 | - | 2.9 | - | 1.4 | - | 5.0 | - | 20.7 | 2 | 0.4 | - | 8 | ||
Nordberg | 28.1 | 2 | 36.7 | 3 | 11.7 | - | 3.8 | - | 2.9 | - | 1.4 | - | 2.0 | - | 12.0 | 1 | 0.5 | - | 0.7 | - | 6 | ||
Ostlaak | 31.3 | 6 | 16.9 | 3 | 13.3 | 2 | 5.3 | 1 | 9.8 | 2 | 11.0 | 2 | 8.0 | 1 | 2.0 | - | 1.0 | - | 17 | ||||
Sompland | 27.4 | 8 | 17.5 | 5 | 9.5 | 2 | 6.8 | 1 | 9.0 | 2 | 13.8 | 4 | 4.8 | 1 | 2.0 | - | 6.7 | 1 | 0.9 | - | 24 | ||
Westmaark | 27.6 | 9 | 25.6 | 8 | 14.3 | 5 | 8.0 | 2 | 6.3 | 2 | 6.8 | 2 | 4.4 | 1 | 2.0 | - | 3.7 | 1 | 30 | ||||
Azmara | 26.0 | 43 | 16.3 | 26 | 16.5 | 25 | 9.3 | 13 | 8.0 | 12 | 7.0 | 11 | 5.1 | 7 | 3.5 | 4 | 2.8 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 1.6 | 2 | 150 |
Voter demographics
Demographic | Size | Workers' | GF | SF | Radical | Green | BeH | Socialist | Others | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total vote | 100% | 26% | 16% | 16% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 12% | |||
Gender | ||||||||||||
Men | 49% | 24% | 17% | 18% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 13% | |||
Women | 51% | 28% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 12% | |||
Age | ||||||||||||
16–24 years old | 11% | 21% | 18% | 7% | 15% | 17% | 3% | 7% | 12% | |||
25–49 years old | 41% | 26% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 11% | |||
50–64 years old | 25% | 25% | 16% | 18% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 14% | |||
65 and older | 23% | 29% | 12% | 25% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 10% | |||
Educational attainment | ||||||||||||
Did not graduate | ||||||||||||
High school (ARWP/SWP) | ||||||||||||
High school (GWP) | ||||||||||||
University graduate | ||||||||||||
Occupation | ||||||||||||
Blue collar | ||||||||||||
White collar/entrepreneur | ||||||||||||
Public sector | ||||||||||||
Self-employed | ||||||||||||
Source: JuGov exit poll |
Aftermath and government formation
The results saw the Workers' Party take further losses after having spent six years in power, with Anasdohter commenting that the results were "disappointing" but noted that the party was "still unambiguously the country's largest political movement", stating that she would aim to continue on as Thingspeaker. Losses sustained by her coalition partners in the Radicals and the Green Party meant that the outgoing government lost its parliamentary majority - the Radicals lost six seats and the Greens lost two.
Despite having surged in opinion polls in early 2021 to nearly a quarter of the vote, Gold Flame made a loss of five seats on their 2020 performance, a result about which Aleksaanderssun commented that the party had "failed to communicate the need for pro-choice reforms to the Azmaran government" but that the party would "not apologise for its defence of liberal values". Conversely, the similarly centre-right Sotirian Democrats made significant gains in the election for their best performance in both seat count and popular vote share since 2008, with Henrik Jorśsun's leadership and popularity in rural Azmara attributed to the party's improvement in performance. Westmaark Today's Hank Lorenssun commented that, in comparison to the party's disastrous 2020 campaign, the party had "learned how to successfully weld populism with the values of Sotirian democracy."
Blue and White experienced a significant breakthrough in Hilda Maartensdohter's native Sompland, with Maartensdohter being receiving the second-most individual votes of any candidate after Sofija Anasdohter. Maartensdohter in an interview stated that traditional Workers' Party voters in Sompland and Ostlaak, where her party also saw a strong result, had "had enough of the party's half-measures and inability to stick up for them against Bojnersteden elites". She also stated that while she did not expect to be invited to government formation talks, she and her party would "stick up for forgotten Azmarans in the halls of power".
Leif Freissun of the Workers' Party was re-elected as President of the Folksmot on 17th April, receiving votes from the outgoing government parties, the Socialist Party, Generation Azmara and Liveable Groonbank, as well as the Sotirian Democrats in exchange for the Workers' Party supporting their candidate Alana Stefansdohter as Deputy President. This move led to speculation by many journalists that the two parties were in negotiations to form a government, yet this was denied by Anasdohter, who said that she would send out a questionnaire to all ten other party leaders asking about their compatibility in policy "over the next few days".
Government formation
Investiture Freidrik Aleksaanderssun (Gold Flame) | ||
Ballot → | 5 July 2023 | |
---|---|---|
Required majority → | 76 out of 150 | |
Yes
|
78 / 150
| |
No
|
74 / 150
| |
Abstentions | 0 / 545
| |
Absentees | 0 / 545
|
Notes
References
- ↑ "Henrik Jorśsun selected as new leader of Sotirian Democrats after vote at weekend conference". De Aalmsted Heraald. 2022-04-05. Retrieved 2023-01-21.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 "Anasdohter announces intention to dissolve Folksmot for elections". De Aalmsted Heraald. 2020-04-21. Retrieved 2023-01-21.
- ↑ "Results breakdown: What happened in your province?". De Aalmsted Heraald. 2020-04-21. Retrieved 2023-01-21.
- ↑ "Ministers resign as protests rage on". De Aalmsted Heraald. 2020-05-08. Retrieved 2023-01-21.