2019 Caldish general election

2019 Caldish general election

18 February 2019
All 399 seats to the Comhthionól Náisiúnta 200 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	87.6 ( 1.2%)
Party Leader % Seats ± Social Democrats Stiofán Mac Suibhne 48.8% 218 +101 Liberty Party Amhlaoibh na Dùnphris 18.4% 89 -67 Nationals Liam Ó Cuillinn 13.6% 57 +34 Centre Cúan Ó Domhnaill 3.1% 12 -21 Labour Nuala Nic Chonmara 4% 8 -20 Greens Colm Ó Corráin Ciara Nic Innes 3% 6 -5 Democrats Máire Ní Briain 2.5% 5 -11 Pensioners Ellie Níc Raghnaill 1.2% 1 0 Homeland Einion ap Calder .2% 1 +1 This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Results of the election by constituency.
Taoiseach before Taoiseach after Amhlaoibh na Dùnphris Liberty Stiofán Mac Suibhne Social Democrats

A snap general election was held in Caldia on 18 February 2019 to elect all 399 members of the Comhthionól Náisiúnta. The elections were called following the collapse of the centre-right coalition government.

The election resulted in a victory for the Social Democratic Party, which won 218 of 399 seats, a parliamentary majority. The Social Democrats' leader Stiofán Mac Suibhne was its candidate for Taoiseach and was invited by King Kenneth IV to form a government. The incumbent Liberty Party, which until January had led a coalition government consisting of the Centre Party and the Caldish Democrats, was defeated. Liberty was reduced to 89 seats, its worst ever performance.

On 19 February, incumbent Taoiseach Amhlaoibh na Dùnphris of the Liberty Party submitted his resignation to the king. Mac Suibhne was tasked with forming the next government. It was sworn in on 27 February after the Comhthionól reconvened. A single-party Social Democratic government took office for the first time since June 1997.

Background

In the 2017 general election, a narrow majority was won by the Liberty Party, Centre Party, and the Caldish Democrats. Together, they won a total of 206 and a centre-right coalition led by the Liberty Party's leader Jimmy O'Reilly was formed. In May 2019, a new government was formed following a diplomatic incident that say O'Reilly lose the support of his coalition partners. Frank Casarnach led a continuation of the coalition following a cabinet shake-up. The coalition had a five-year mandate that ended early when the Centre Party and the Caldish Democrats left the government after Casarnach was implicated in a big-rigging scandal. Despite refusing to resign or call an election, Casarnach was removed from office by King Kenneth IV. His deputy, Amhlaoibh na Dùnphris was invited by the king to form a caretaker government and a snap election was called for 18 February 2019.

Electoral system

Of the 399 members of the Comhthionól, 200 are elected in multi-member constituencies and 199 are selected based on a party's vote share. The presiding officer is automatically re-elected if standing again, but the incumbent had retired meaning all 399 seats were contested.

Members are elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Caldia has XX multi-member constituencies. Each consistency consists of three to five members. Members are selected using a version of single-transferable vote known as the Ní Dochartaigh method. Under this process, voters rank candidates by first and second preference. Unlike other methods of single transferable vote, they can only rank candidates in this order and cannot transfer their vote to more than one additional candidate.

The remaining members are allocated to parties who rank their candidates on an open list in which voters can rank candidates on their own. Voters can either support a party's top candidate or give their vote to another candidate on the list. This could allow a candidate to move up the list. For this to occur, a candidate must receive more than 25% of the total number of votes cast for the party. This allows for parties to retain significant control over candidates elected on the open list.

For a new party to become eligible, it had to register the support of 25,000 registered voters with the Caldish Electoral Board before 18 January. New parties are usually given more time to prepare, but the nature of the snap election reduced the time they had. For a new party to enter the Comhthionól it had to receive more than 2.5% of the national vote share win a seat in a multi-member constituency. Independents only require the support of 10,000 registered voters, making ballot access easier.

Retiring incumbents

The following members of the 32nd Comhthionól did not seek re-election.

Constituency	Departing TD	Party		First elected	Date confirmed
Aerach East	Sarah Pingins		Liberty	1992	14 January 2019
List	Nicolás Cummins		Liberty	1982	12 January 2019
List	Jimmy O'Reilly		Liberty	2007	7 January 2019
Shanbally North	Frank Casarnach		Liberty	2007	5 January 2019

Participating parties

Parties contesting the elections

Party			Leader	Last election
	S	Liberty Party	Amhlaoibh na Dùnphris	TBD	156 seats
	PSD	Social Democratic Party	Stiofán Mac Suibhne	TBD	117 seats
	PL	Centre Party	Cúan Ó Domhnaill	TBD	33 seats
	PLO	Labour Party	Nuala Nic Chonmara	TBD	28 seats
	PN	National Party	Liam Ó Cuillinn	TBD	23 seats
	D	Caldish Democrats	Máire Ní Briain	TBD	16 seats
	G	The Greens	Colm Ó Corráin Ciara Nic Innes	TBD	11 seats
	PMSA	Free Market Party	Muirís Ó Raghallaigh	TBD	7 seats
	PNG	Caldish Independence Party	Maelsheachlainn Mac Seanáin	TBD	6 seats
	Y/AA	Forward	Duane ap Drummond	TBD	1 seat
	PP	Pensioners	Ellie Níc Raghnaill	TBD	1 seat
	M/TD	Homeland	Einion ap Calder	TBD	0 seats
	N	Independents	39 individual candidates	TBD	0 seats

Campaign

The campaign officially began when newly-appointed Taoisech Amhlaoibh na Dùnphris announced he had submitted a writ of dissolution to King Kenneth IV on 5 January 2019. The Comhthionól Náisiúnta, which had been in recess since 17 December 2018, was immediately dissolved. At the time of the Comhthionól's dissolution, na Dùnphris had only been Taoiseach for several hours. Frank Casarnach, the previous incumbent, had been removed from office after refusing to leave office.

The election campaign started the following day on 6 January and lasted until polling day on 18 February 2019. Organized political parties and Independent candidates had until 18 January to register with the elections office. Due to the brief period of time between the Comhthionól's dissolution, no new political parties contested the election. All incumbent parties in the Comhthionól except the Free Market Party contested the election. The PMSA voted to dissolve itself on 13 January 2019 and did not nominate any candidates or submit a list. Three of ours seven TCs successfully registered as Independents. Several smaller parties also contested the election.

The campaign mostly focused on corruption and the bid-rigging scandal that surrounded Casarnach and his wife, Claire Nic Haol-Casarnach, who served as Liberty's party chair. Social Democratic Party leader Stiofán Mac Suibhne regularly focused on this issue throughout the early stages of the campaign, association the Centre Party and Caldish Democrats with Casarnach. Mac Suibhne also campaigned on past scandals involving the Liberty-led coalition, citing the involvement of the smaller parties. Liberty struggled throughout the campaign. The party's leader was not well-known and the leadership faced challenges after the party chair was arrested. A number of prominent Liberty politicians announced their retirement in the campaign's early stages, impacting the party's standing.

On 14 January, the country's anti-corruption agency found members of the Casarnach government conspired with the ruling Tribune Movement in Etruria in a diplomatic scandal known as the Pietramontecorvino Incident. Several ministers and senior aides were implicated in the scandal and subsequently charged during the campaign. This resulted in a surge for support for the Social Democrats, who continued campaigning on a message of anti-corruption and good-governance.

na Dùnphris officially launched his party's campaign on 23 January, weeks after his rivals. The delayed launch was caused by disruption within the party's leadership. A number of resignations complicated efforts to organize Liberty's campaign. In contrast to the Social Democrats' focus on corruption and good governance, na Dùnphris emphasized his party's record on the economy and his rival's manifesto.

Voter registration closed on 28 January, with a high number of registrations taking place in the final week. Twice the normal amount of registrations were reported, notable given the election was not regularly scheduled.

In the final weeks of the campaign, na Dùnphris tried to convince voters to abandon other centre-right parties and back Liberty in order to form a opposition to a Social Democratic government. He claimed that it was no longer viable for Liberty to form a government, but argued that a divided opposition would strengthen the position of the Social Democrats. This was rebuked by the leaders of other centre-right parties. National Party leader Liam Ó Cuillinn said Liberty had "proven it could not be trusted". On 17 February, the final day of the campaign, na Dùnphris urged voters to support Liberty in order to defend the popular flat tax.

Polling

Polls taken prior to the dissolution of the dissolution of the Comhthionól Náisiúnta showed the Social Democratic Party over taking the Liberty Party by an average of over ten percent. Polls conducted in the early stages of the campaign showed the Social Democrats' lead grow to an average of 17%. By the end of the campaign, the Social Democrats had averaged as high as 25%.

Support for the Liberty Party declined steadily throughout the campaign. It dropped significantly after a diplomatic scandal broke in the Caldish press on 14 January 2019. Opinion polls taken during the campaign showed the party lost the bulk of its support to the Social Democrats and the National Party.

Television debates

2019 Caldish general election debates
Date	Broadcaster	Moderator(s)	Participants —   Name  Participant    N  Party not invited/did not participate											Notes
			S	PSD	PL	PLO	PN	D	G	PNG	PP	Y/AA	M/TD
16 Jan	TRN Amháin	Morgan Mac Pherson Raghnaid Nic Dhuibh	na Dùnphris	Mac Suibhne	Ó Domhnaill	Nic Chonmara	Ó Cuillinn	Ní Briain	Ó Corráin	Mac Seanáin	Níc Raghnaill	N	N
20 Jan	GBF One	Mairéad Ní Chuinn Cáitín Ní Mhaonaigh	na Dùnphris	Mac Suibhne	Ó Domhnaill	Nic Chonmara	Ó Cuillinn	Ní Briain	Nic Innes	Mac Seanáin	Níc Raghnaill	N	N
30 Jan	TRN Amháin	Morgan Mac Pherson Raghnaid Nic Dhuibh	na Dùnphris	Mac Suibhne	Ó Domhnaill	Nic Chonmara	Ó Cuillinn	Ní Briain	N	N	N	N	N
6 Feb	GBF One	Pronsiaisín Mac Mhòrdha	na Dùnphris	Mac Suibhne	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
6 Feb	GBF Two	Mairéad Ní Chuinn Cáitín Ní Mhaonaigh	N	N	Ó Domhnaill	Nic Chonmara	Ó Cuillinn	Ní Briain	Ó Corráin	Mac Seanáin	Níc Raghnaill	N	N
13 Feb	TRN Amháin	Morgan Mac Pherson Raghnaid Nic Dhuibh	na Dùnphris	Mac Suibhne	Ó Domhnaill	Nic Chonmara	Ó Cuillinn	Ní Briain	Ó Corráin	Mac Seanáin	Níc Raghnaill	N	N
13 Feb	TRN Cyth/Cait	Daffydd Cadwaladr	ap Gruffudd	Nic Dhiarmaid	ap Dafyd	N	Ó Faoláin	N	N	N	N	ap Drummond	ap Calder	Caithian Pride did not participate
16 Feb	GBF One	Mairéad Ní Chuinn Cáitín Ní Mhaonaigh	na Dùnphris	Mac Suibhne	Ó Domhnaill	Nic Chonmara	Ó Cuillinn	Ní Briain	Nic Innes	Mac Seanáin	Níc Raghnaill	N	N

In total, eight debates were held throughout the campaign. They were broadcast by GBF and TRN. Minor parties were invited to participate in most debates.

The 30 January 2019 debate was the first to exclude minor parties, with TRN inviting the leaders of larger parties to make their case for why they should become taoiseach. GBF hosted the only debate between the two main leaders, Amhlaoibh na Dùnphris and Stiofán Mac Suibhne.

TRN Cyth/Cait hosted the only debate for Caithian parties on 13 February. It broadcast simultaneously to their debate with the main parties. The final debate was held on 16 February, two days before the election was held.

The debates were primarily about each party's manifesto, while corruption and good governance were also discussed.

Results

The election resulted in a victory for the Social Democratic Party, who won a majority of seats. Social Democratic Party leader Stiofán Mac Suibhne was declared winner in the Caldish press and was expected to become taoiseach. In total, his party won 218 seats and 48.4 percent of first preference votes. It was the best election result for the Social Democratic Party since 1992.

The Social Democrats increased their voter share by over 20 percent and won 101 additional seats. The Liberty Party became the second largest party, winning 89 seats. The party lost a total of 67 seats and received 18.4 percent of first preference votes. The National Party became the third largest party for the first time, winning 57 seats and receiving 13.6 percent of the voter share. They were the only minor party in the Comhthionól Náisiúnta to gain seats. The Centre Party, Labour Party, Caldish Democrats, and Green Party all lost seats. The Caldish Independence Party was eliminated from the Comhthionól, failing to pass the 2.5 percent parliamentary threshold.

The only new party to enter the Comhthionól was Homeland, which won a single seat in Caithia. Forward lost its representation in the Comhthionól as a result. Two Independents were elected, one of which was a former member of the Free Market Party.

↓

218	89	57	12	8	6	5	1	1	2
Social Democrats	Liberty	Nationals	Centre	PLO	G	DG			Ind.

First preference vote share of different parties in the election.

  Social Democrats (48.8%)

  Liberty Party (18.4%)

  National Party (13.6%)

  Centre Party (4%)

  Labour Party (3.1%)

  The Greens (3%)

  Caldish Democrats (2.5%)

  Pensioners' Party (1.2%)

  Homeland (0.2%)

  Other (5.2%)

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Social Democrats (PSD)	3,140,869	48.8	218	+101
	Liberty Party (S)	1,184,262	18.4	89	-67
	National Party (PN)	875,324	13.6	57	+34
	Labour Party (PLO)	258,092	4	8	-20
	Centre (PL)	199,522	3.1	12	-21
	The Greens (G)	193,086	3	6	–5
	Caldish Democrats (D)	161,549	2.5	5	-13
	Caldish Independence Party (PNG)	147,389	2.3	0	–6
	Pensioners' Party (PP)	75,304	1.2	1	–
	Homeland (M/TD)	12,916	.2	1	+1
	Forward (Y/AA)	10,942	.2	0	-1
	Other parties	95,256	1.48	0	-
	Independents	81,740	1.3	2	+2
Invalid/blank votes		37,801	–	–	–
Total		6,474,052	100	399	0
Registered voters/turnout		7,347,270	87.6	–	–

Government formation

On election night, Taoiseach Amhlaoibh na Dùnphris announced his government would resign the following day. Following consultations with the political parties, King Kenneth IV tasked Stiofán Mac Suibhne of the Social Democratic Party with forming a new government. This was the first time the Social Democratic Party was invited to form a government since the 1997 election.

The process of government formation was brief as the Social Democrats won a majority of seats. The na Dùnphris government continued in a care-taking capacity until the Comhthionól Náisiúnta reconvened on 27 February 2019. Mac Suibhne was nominated and confirmed as taoiseach and his cabinet was approved by the Comhthionól. In a break with convention, Mac Suibhne nominated several ministers to dual portfolios. It was confirmed on 28 February that ministers would only receive a single salary regardless of the number of cabinet portfolios they held.