2019 Caldish general election
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All 399 seats to the Comhthionól Náisiúnta 200 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 87.6 ( 1.2%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 Results of the election by constituency. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A snap general election was held in Caldia on 18 February 2019 to elect all 399 members of the Comhthionól Náisiúnta. The elections were called following the collapse of the centre-right coalition government.
The election resulted in a victory for the Social Democratic Party, which won 218 of 399 seats, a parliamentary majority. The Social Democrats' leader Stiofán Mac Suibhne was its candidate for Taoiseach and was invited by King Kenneth IV to form a government. The incumbent Liberty Party, which until January had led a coalition government consisting of the Centre Party and the Caldish Democrats, was defeated. Liberty was reduced to 89 seats, its worst ever performance.
On 19 February, incumbent Taoiseach Humphrey Dumfries of the Liberty Party submitted his resignation to the king. Mac Suibhne was tasked with forming the next government. It was sworn in on 27 February after the Comhthionól reconvened. A single-party Social Democratic government took office for the first time since June 1997.
Background
In the 2017 general election, a narrow majority was won by the Liberty Party, Centre Party, and the Caldish Democrats. Together, they won a total of 206 and a centre-right coalition led by the Liberty Party's leader Jimmy O'Reilly was formed. In May 2019, a new government was formed following a diplomatic incident that say O'Reilly lose the support of his coalition partners. Frank Casarnach led a continuation of the coalition following a cabinet shake-up. The coalition had a five-year mandate that ended early when the Centre Party and the Caldish Democrats left the government after Casarnach was implicated in a big-rigging scandal. Despite refusing to resign or call an election, Casarnach was removed from office by King Kenneth IV. His deputy, Humphrey Dumfries was invited by the king to form a caretaker government and a snap election was called for 18 February 2019.
Electoral system
Of the 399 members of the Comhthionól, 200 are elected in multi-member constituencies and 199 are selected based on a party's vote share. The presiding officer is automatically re-elected if standing again, but the incumbent had retired meaning all 399 seats were contested.
Members are elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Caldia has XX multi-member constituencies. Each consistency consists of three to five members. Members are selected using a version of single-transferable vote known as the Ní Dochartaigh method. Under this process, voters rank candidates by first and second preference. Unlike other methods of single transferable vote, they can only rank candidates in this order and cannot transfer their vote to more than one additional candidate.
The remaining members are allocated to parties who rank their candidates on an open list in which voters can rank candidates on their own. Voters can either support a party's top candidate or give their vote to another candidate on the list. This could allow a candidate to move up the list. For this to occur, a candidate must receive more than 25% of the total number of votes cast for the party. This allows for parties to retain significant control over candidates elected on the open list.
For a new party to become eligible, it had to register the support of 25,000 registered voters with the Caldish Electoral Board before 18 January. New parties are usually given more time to prepare, but the nature of the snap election reduced the time they had. For a new party to enter the Comhthionól it had to receive more than 2.5% of the national vote share win a seat in a multi-member constituency. Independents only require the support of 10,000 registered voters, making ballot access easier.
Retiring incumbents
The following members of the 32nd Comhthionól did not seek re-election.
| Constituency | Departing TD | Party | First elected | Date confirmed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerach East | Sarah Pingins | Liberty | 1992 | 14 January 2019 | |
| List | Nicolás Cummins | Liberty | 1982 | 12 January 2019 | |
| List | Jimmy O'Reilly | Liberty | 2007 | 7 January 2019 | |
| Shanbally North | Frank Casarnach | Liberty | 2007 | 5 January 2019 | |
Participating parties
| Party | Leader | Last election | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | Liberty Party | Humphrey Dumfries | TBD | 156 seats | |
| PSD | Social Democratic Party | Stiofán Mac Suibhne | TBD | 117 seats | |
| PL | Centre Party | Cúan Ó Domhnaill | TBD | 33 seats | |
| PLO | Labour Party | Nuala Nic Chonmara | TBD | 28 seats | |
| PN | National Party | Liam Ó Cuillinn | TBD | 23 seats | |
| D | Caldish Democrats | Máire Ní Briain | TBD | 16 seats | |
| G | The Greens | Colm Ó Corráin Ciara Nic Innes |
TBD | 11 seats | |
| PMSA | Free Market Party | Muirís Ó Raghallaigh | TBD | 7 seats | |
| PNG | Caldish Independence Party | Maelsheachlainn Mac Seanáin | TBD | 6 seats | |
| Y/AA | Forward | Duane ap Drummond | TBD | 1 seat | |
| PP | Pensioners | Ellie Níc Raghnaill | TBD | 1 seat | |
| M/TD | Homeland | Einion ap Calder | TBD | 0 seats | |
| N | Independents | 39 individual candidates | TBD | 0 seats | |
Campaign
The campaign officially began when newly-appointed Taoisech Humphrey Dumfries announced he had submitted a writ of dissolution to King Kenneth IV on 5 January 2019. The Comhthionól Náisiúnta, which had been in recess since 17 December 2018, was immediately dissolved. At the time of the Comhthionól's dissolution, Dumfries had only been Taoiseach for several hours. Frank Casarnach, the previous incumbent, had been removed from office after refusing to leave office.
The election campaign started the following day on 6 January and lasted until polling day on 18 February 2019. Organized political parties and Independent candidates had until 18 January to register with the elections office. Due to the brief period of time between the Comhthionól's dissolution, no new political parties contested the election. All incumbent parties in the Comhthionól except the Free Market Party contested the election. The PMSA voted to dissolve itself on 13 January 2019 and did not nominate any candidates or submit a list. Three of ours seven TCs successfully registered as Independents. Several smaller parties also contested the election.
The campaign mostly focused on corruption and the bid-rigging scandal that surrounded Casarnach and his wife, Claire Nic Haol-Casarnach, who served as Liberty's party chair. Social Democratic Party leader Stiofán Mac Suibhne regularly focused on this issue throughout the early stages of the campaign, association the Centre Party and Caldish Democrats with Casarnach. Mac Suibhne also campaigned on past scandals involving the Liberty-led coalition, citing the involvement of the smaller parties. Liberty struggled throughout the campaign. The party's leader was not well-known and the leadership faced challenges after the party chair was arrested. A number of prominent Liberty politicians announced their retirement in the campaign's early stages, impacting the party's standing.
On 14 January, the country's anti-corruption agency found members of the Casarnach government conspired with the ruling Tribune Movement in Etruria in a diplomatic scandal known as the Pietramontecorvino Incident. Several ministers and senior aides were implicated in the scandal and subsequently charged during the campaign. This resulted in a surge for support for the Social Democrats, who continued campaigning on a message of anti-corruption and good-governance.
Dumfries officially launched his party's campaign on 23 January, weeks after his rivals. The delayed launch was caused by disruption within the party's leadership. A number of resignations complicated efforts to organize Liberty's campaign. In contrast to the Social Democrats' focus on corruption and good governance, Dumfries emphasized his party's record on the economy and his rival's manifesto.
Voter registration closed on 28 January, with a high number of registrations taking place in the final week. Twice the normal amount of registrations were reported, notable given the election was not regularly scheduled.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Dumfries tried to convince voters to abandon other centre-right parties and back Liberty in order to form a opposition to a Social Democratic government. He claimed that it was no longer viable for Liberty to form a government, but argued that a divided opposition would strengthen the position of the Social Democrats. This was rebuked by the leaders of other centre-right parties. National Party leader Liam Ó Cuillinn said Liberty had "proven it could not be trusted". On 17 February, the final day of the campaign, Dumfries urged voters to support Liberty in order to defend the popular flat tax.
Polling
Polls taken prior to the dissolution of the dissolution of the Comhthionól Náisiúnta showed the Social Democratic Party over taking the Liberty Party by an average of over ten percent. Polls conducted in the early stages of the campaign showed the Social Democrats' lead grow to an average of 17%. By the end of the campaign, the Social Democrats had averaged as high as 25%.
Support for the Liberty Party declined steadily throughout the campaign. It dropped significantly after a diplomatic scandal broke in the Caldish press on 14 January 2019. Opinion polls taken during the campaign showed the party lost the bulk of its support to the Social Democrats and the National Party.
Television debates
| 2019 Caldish general election debates | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Broadcaster | Moderator(s) | Participants — Name Participant N Party not invited/did not participate | Notes | ||||||||||
| S | PSD | PL | PLO | PN | D | G | PNG | PP | Y/AA | M/TD | ||||
| 16 Jan | TRN Amháin | Morgan Mac Pherson Raghnaid Nic Dhuibh |
Dumfries | Mac Suibhne | Ó Domhnaill | Nic Chonmara | Ó Cuillinn | Ní Briain | Ó Corráin | Mac Seanáin | Níc Raghnaill | N | N | |
| 20 Jan | GBF One | Mairéad Ní Chuinn Cáitín Ní Mhaonaigh |
Dumfries | Mac Suibhne | Ó Domhnaill | Nic Chonmara | Ó Cuillinn | Ní Briain | Nic Innes | Mac Seanáin | Níc Raghnaill | N | N | |
| 30 Jan | TRN Amháin | Morgan Mac Pherson Raghnaid Nic Dhuibh |
Dumfries | Mac Suibhne | Ó Domhnaill | Nic Chonmara | Ó Cuillinn | Ní Briain | N | N | N | N | N | |
| 6 Feb | GBF One | Pronsiaisín Mac Mhòrdha | Dumfries | Mac Suibhne | N | N | N | N | N | N | N | N | N | |
| 6 Feb | GBF Two | Mairéad Ní Chuinn Cáitín Ní Mhaonaigh |
N | N | Ó Domhnaill | Nic Chonmara | Ó Cuillinn | Ní Briain | Ó Corráin | Mac Seanáin | Níc Raghnaill | N | N | |
| 13 Feb | TRN Amháin | Morgan Mac Pherson Raghnaid Nic Dhuibh |
Dumfries | Mac Suibhne | Ó Domhnaill | Nic Chonmara | Ó Cuillinn | Ní Briain | Ó Corráin | Mac Seanáin | Níc Raghnaill | N | N | |
| 13 Feb | TRN Cyth/Cait | Daffydd Cadwaladr | ap Gruffudd | Nic Dhiarmaid | ap Dafyd | N | Ó Faoláin | N | N | N | N | ap Drummond | ap Calder | Caithian Pride did not participate |
| 16 Feb | GBF One | Mairéad Ní Chuinn Cáitín Ní Mhaonaigh |
Dumfries | Mac Suibhne | Ó Domhnaill | Nic Chonmara | Ó Cuillinn | Ní Briain | Nic Innes | Mac Seanáin | Níc Raghnaill | N | N | |
In total, eight debates were held throughout the campaign. They were broadcast by GBF and TRN. Minor parties were invited to participate in most debates.
The 30 January 2019 debate was the first to exclude minor parties, with TRN inviting the leaders of larger parties to make their case for why they should become taoiseach. GBF hosted the only debate between the two main leaders, Humphrey Dumfries and Stiofán Mac Suibhne.
TRN Cyth/Cait hosted the only debate for Caithian parties on 13 February. It broadcast simultaneously to their debate with the main parties. The final debate was held on 16 February, two days before the election was held.
The debates were primarily about each party's manifesto, while corruption and good governance were also discussed.
Results
The election resulted in a victory for the Social Democratic Party, who won a majority of seats. Social Democratic Party leader Stiofán Mac Suibhne was declared winner in the Caldish press and was expected to become taoiseach. In total, his party won 218 seats and 48.4 percent of first preference votes. It was the best election result for the Social Democratic Party since 1992.
The Social Democrats increased their voter share by over 20 percent and won 101 additional seats. The Liberty Party became the second largest party, winning 89 seats. The party lost a total of 67 seats and received 18.4 percent of first preference votes. The National Party became the third largest party for the first time, winning 57 seats and receiving 13.6 percent of the voter share. They were the only minor party in the Comhthionól Náisiúnta to gain seats. The Centre Party, Labour Party, Caldish Democrats, and Green Party all lost seats. The Caldish Independence Party was eliminated from the Comhthionól, failing to pass the 2.5 percent parliamentary threshold.
The only new party to enter the Comhthionól was Homeland, which won a single seat in Caithia. Forward lost its representation in the Comhthionól as a result. Two Independents were elected, one of which was a former member of the Free Market Party.
| 218 | 89 | 57 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Social Democrats | Liberty | Nationals | Centre | PLO | G | DG | Ind. |
First preference vote share of different parties in the election.
| ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | % | Seats | +/– | ||
| Social Democrats (PSD) | 3,140,869 | 48.8 | 218 | +101 | ||
| Liberty Party (S) | 1,184,262 | 18.4 | 89 | -67 | ||
| National Party (PN) | 875,324 | 13.6 | 57 | +34 | ||
| Labour Party (PLO) | 258,092 | 4 | 8 | -20 | ||
| Centre (PL) | 199,522 | 3.1 | 12 | -21 | ||
| The Greens (G) | 193,086 | 3 | 6 | –5 | ||
| Caldish Democrats (D) | 161,549 | 2.5 | 5 | -13 | ||
| Caldish Independence Party (PNG) | 147,389 | 2.3 | 0 | –6 | ||
| Pensioners' Party (PP) | 75,304 | 1.2 | 1 | – | ||
| Homeland (M/TD) | 12,916 | .2 | 1 | +1 | ||
| Forward (Y/AA) | 10,942 | .2 | 0 | -1 | ||
| Other parties | 95,256 | 1.48 | 0 | - | ||
| Independents | 81,740 | 1.3 | 2 | +2 | ||
| Invalid/blank votes | 37,801 | – | – | – | ||
| Total | 6,474,052 | 100 | 399 | 0 | ||
| Registered voters/turnout | 7,347,270 | 87.6 | – | – | ||
Government formation
On election night, Taoiseach Humphrey Dumfries announced his government would resign the following day. Following consultations with the political parties, King Kenneth IV tasked Stiofán Mac Suibhne of the Social Democratic Party with forming a new government. This was the first time the Social Democratic Party was invited to form a government since the 1997 election.
The process of government formation was brief as the Social Democrats won a majority of seats. The Dumfries government continued in a care-taking capacity until the Comhthionól Náisiúnta reconvened on 27 February 2019. Mac Suibhne was nominated and confirmed as taoiseach and his cabinet was approved by the Comhthionól. In a break with convention, Mac Suibhne nominated several ministers to dual portfolios. It was confirmed on 28 February that ministers would only receive a single salary regardless of the number of cabinet portfolios they held.