Mabifia food crisis (2019-present)
In 2019, droughts caused an acute shortage of food in the Republic of Mabifia, severely threatening the food security in the regions of the Boual ka Bifie, Central Green Belt, but also affecting major urban centres such as Ouagedji. Controversies over the government's inadequate response, as well as anxieties toward underlying factors of the crisis, led to the crisis escalating into a political and social confrontation in Mabifia. The food crisis ended by September 2020, but civil unrest motivated by dissent against the government of Mahmadou Jolleh Bande continued, contributing significantly to Mabifian political instability in the early 2020s and ultimately the Dewral Revolution.
History
Food security has always been a major area of concern for Mabifia, as much of the country's north is dominated by savannah and desert biomes which are not condusive to agriculture. Much of the northern population is reliant on pastoralism, which has been a response to the irregular weather conditions of the Boual ka Bifie, while the Central Green Belt relies on sedentary cultivation. In the precolonial era, relations between herders and farmers were governed by customary agreements which limited conflict. However, the arrival of Toubacterie introduced Euclean ideas of private property and ownership of land which had not previously existed. Headmen from the Central Green Belt and southern Mabifia now possessed the complete right to their lands and excluded pastoralists. Rising populations, caused by the introduction of modern medicine and other significant urban improvements, also created a need for more reliable agricultural production. These changes cut many Boualic peoples off from their traditional means of subsistence, resulting in a famine in 1887.
The colonial administration did not prioritise the agricultural question. Large swathes of fertile land were bought up by Eucleans to be used to cultivate cash crops such as coffee. This led to food insecurity even in areas which had previously been highly self-sufficient. However, the Gaullicans also introduced new farming practices and technologies which allowed Mabifian farmers to increase their yields. The socialist Mabifian Democratic Republic, which won its independence from Estmere in 1943, opted to nationalise these estates and focus on collective farming as a means of assuring food supplies. While this was initially destructive, the increase in farmed lands would eventually increase agricultural production. These collective farms were highly inefficient and struggled to meet the demands of a growing population, which was one of the major sources of unrest which eventually started the Second Mabifian Civil War.
The second civil war destroyed much of the agricultural capability of the nation, which caused several localised famines. The international community stepped in, with a Community of Nations mission providing food aid to large sectors of the population. The destruction and sale of collective farms led to a return to subsistence farming, which is the largest occupation in Mabifia and source of the vast majority of the country's food. This reliance on local economies and smallholders has left the Mabifian economy vulnerable, especially in regions such as Makania where supply chains are threatened by violence.
Causes
Ecological
Ecological forcings have played a key role in the Mabifia food crisis. Between 2018 and 2020, Mabifia recorded record lows for rainfall in the Boual ka Bifie and Central Green Belt. This decreased rain had a major effect on agricultural yields, as many crops were unable to cope with the dry spells and died. Farmers often harvested their crops prematurely, which diminished their production. Soils dried, which further damaged their agricutural usefulness. In desperation, many farmers overexploited groundwater reserves, which led to subsidence and environmental damage. Though the conditions did not reach those of a drought in the Central Green Belt the mountains of this region are a major watershed for river systems, leading to issues downstream.
A major factor which has impacted upon the precarious ecological situation has been the process of desertification. Climate change has led to increased aridity in many historically dry areas, leaving them at risk of desertification. The increased intensification of agriculture, particularly the expansion of cash crop cultivation encouraged by the Global Institute for Fiscal Affairs as part of a loan, compounded this risk and led to the loss of large tracts of land. The droughts of 2018 led to a feeling of desperation among those most at risk of desertification, and many attemped to grow more crops to protect their livelihoods. On the Boual, traditional watering holes had their vegetation stripped and replaced with short-rooted foodstuff crops. This in turn accelerated desertification, wiping out much of the crops and further pressuring food supplies. Due to the interconnected nature of the crisis, many of these effects have in turn had follow-on consequences such as creating climate refugees who have pressured urban economies.
Demographic
Post-civil war Mabifia has faced several significant demographic challenges. During the civil war and subsequent market reforms, many of the jobs in the Villes nouvelles constructed by the regime disappeared almost overnight. This led to major displacement, with many people chosing to return to their traditional villages hoping to farm and achieve a degree of stability. Many also moved to larger urban cities, especially the capital city Ouagedji which grew by almost 20% in the two years after the civil war despite being a scene of major fighting. The increased rural population, and lack of overall oversight which came from the transition to millions of smallholder farmers as collective farming collapsed, placed major pressures on the rural ecological systems. As the situation stabilised, the children of the families who had fled to the rural areas desired employment and began a second wave of urbanisation.
Mabifia's population has also increased rapidly in the years following the civil war, owing to a high fertility rate of 4.65 children per woman. This has led to an increased strain not just because of a rise in people requiring food, but also because Mabifia is a country with a young population which had led to a high dependency rate. This issue is especially pertinent in the urban areas, as the urban population is growing far faster than the rural population due to migration. With a growing proportion of the population moving to urban centres and therefore less able to be agriculturally self-sufficient, the stress on low-level rural agro-economies is increased.
Political
The political situation in Mabifia has had a hand in both the origins of the crisis and its continuation. Mabifia under Mahmadou Jolleh Bande has been referred to as a kleptocracy wherein the government is more concerned with personal enrichment than it is about serving its people. The Bahian Renaissance Party, who have been in power since the end of the civil war, is dominated by the Ndjarendie ethnic group and its members have been accused of enriching themselves through crony capitalism. Corruption is endemic at all levels of the Mabifian political system, which siphons off large amounts of the money budgeted into regional development plans. This political weakness meant that the government was unable to form a cohesive crisis management plan in 2019 when the crisis first emerged. As the crisis has continued, there have been numerous cases of aid money disappearing and complaints that certain groups have had better access to resources than others.
An especially destructive element of the crisis has been the political instability in Mabifia, which has both fed into the crisis and been accentuated by it. A key region of tension is Makania in the north of Mabifia, on the border with Behera. Makania is dominated by the Mirites, an ethnoreligious group who have been historically marginalised by the Ndjarendie and other people groups due to their Sotirian religious beliefs and percieved status as collaborators with the colonial regime. The Makanian Conflict, which has raged since the civil war, has led to massive devastation of the natural resources of the area as it has primarily revolved around grazing rights and other subsistence disputes. The Makanian conflict has also impeded on Mabifia's ability to respond to the crisis, as the region is an important source of revenue due to its petroleum reserves and contains the Mabifian stretch of the Adunis to Mambiza Railway, an important artery for Mabifian exports. The herder-farmer conflicts in the Boual ka Bifie have also impacted upon the food crisis, as the associated violence is centred upon farming and grazing issues and has threatened food supplies. It has also created waves of refugees to urban centres, compounding urban struggles. Banditry, a result of weak central government control in rural areas, has also been blamed for loss of crops and increasing transport costs.
Economic
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The Mabifian economy is generally seen to be one of the weakest in the world, which has had a contributing effect upon the Mabifian food crisis. Half of the country's population is located in rural areas, with the majority of them working in subsistence agriculture. An estimated 80% of Mabifia's agricultural sector is concentrated in smallholders who possess minimal amounts of land, often without legal oversight or regulation. This has complicated the task of managing water consumption and other metrics, which are already made complicated by the corrupt poltical system. These smallholders possess limited capital, meaning that they are more vulnerable to weak returns which can bankrupt them. Rural moneylenders are often unscrupulous, despite Irfan's restrictions on interest and dishonest financial practices, meaning that many of these farmers are also heavily indebted and under additional pressure. The state of poverty in the country also means that the population are less able to respond to rising food prices than those of other countries.
External economic pressures have also played an important role in the Mabifian food crisis. During the 2010s, Mabifia was under financial stress and forced to take a loan from the Global Institute for Fiscal Affairs. One of the preconditions for this loan was a greater investment in cash crops, such as coffee, cocoa and cotton, which were slated as a way of increasing Mabifia's gdp through raising export revenues. While exports and revenues did increase, the intensification of cash crop cultivation lowered food production and increased food shortages. As these cash crops are also highly water-intensive, already threatened water reserves were placed under even more strain.
Another source of economic pressure which has contributed to raising food prices in urban centres is related to the instability in much of the country. Due to the risks posed to shipments by banditry and insurgency, long distance transportation is highly costly. This issue is especially pertinent to Kangesare, the country's second largest city, which is located in the Boual ka Bifie. To supply the population's requirements, food must be brought in from the more fertile south of the country. This has raised living costs, placing many migrants from smaller Boualic towns who have had to move due to a lack of opportunity in their towns in an even more precarious position.
Response
From the Mabifian government
The response from the Mabifian government has been criticised by many as being too little to effectively deal with the situation. In June 2019, when the first major signs of a drought were being recorded, the government dismissed the risks and said that there was no reason for concern. It is alleged that the government feared seeming weak, and opted to posture in lieu of providing actual policy responses in the critical early months of the crisis. Foreign diplomats were reassured that there was no such crisis, and shown carefully selected towns as proof. However, by October 2019, the reports in both local and international media of deserted villages and mass starvation were too much to suppress and the government was forced to respond.
The government's initial response was to increase the budget of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and place price controls on certain staple foods. This had a minimal effect, as the ministry was highly corrupt and unable to affect any significant change. The price controls were also of negligible impact, as the crisis situation in rural areas was such that it was not enforced. Instead, policemen often used the new laws as further reason to claim bribes from already struggling vendors. The government insisted throughout 2019 that while there was a drought occuring, it was nothing out of the ordinary and was being managed by the government. However, as the situation worsened in 2020, the government sought to remove blame from itself. Mahmadou Jolleh Bande spoke about the conditions being a product of anthropogenic climate change, blaming industrialised nations for his country's situation. He also turned on the smaller landholders, decrying the negative effects of unregulated agricultural practices on the water conditions. He was careful not to name any industrialised countries by name, and did not mention the negative effects of the cash crop cultivation encouraged by the GIFA, as he was hoping to solicit aid from abroad.
The government began an abortive campaign against unlicensed landowners in August 2020, a campaign that was marred by accusations of racism against certain ethnic groups. Aiming to exert governmental oversight in the agricultural sector, it instead became a land-grab by predominantly Ndjarendie officials who took land from Ouloume farmers for themselves. As agricultural production fell and a series of large protests against the seizures erupted in the areas affected, the government was forced to reverse its policy and committed to returning siezed land with a registration amnesty. Much of the seized land has still not been returned. Following this failure, the government was forced to backpedal its stance towards foreign aid and requested support "in unprecedented environmental conditions".
The arrival of aid money is seen by some critics to have lowered the government's interest in the crisis, as it allows them to focus elsewhere with confidence that there will be support given to people in precarious conditions. The government has also used the insecurity prompted by the crisis as a cover to deploy more forces into the disputed Makania region, which has been a source of insecurity for many years.
From the world
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Due to the restrictions on reporters in Mabifia, it was the international media outlet Jeune Baïe which first reported the signs of drought in Mabifia. While this initially did not attract much attention, the situation continued to degrade to the point where there were reports of famine in Mabifia in 2019. The government's downplaying of the issue made it difficult for concrete actions to be taken by international governments, but several non-governmental organisations began to fundraise for food aid in Euclea. In the initial stages of the crisis, it was these Euclean and Asterian organisations which provided the bulk of the relief.
Once the government opened up about the crisis, it became much easier for other nations to contribute aid. The Euclean Community initiated a Mabifian Crisis Aid Project, separate from other EC aid missions within the country, with the goal of a short term alleiviaton of hunger which would be able to be cut back once the situation was stabilised. The government's active courting of aid was seen as a potential windfall for the International Forum of Developing States, with nations such as Zorasan and Shangea extending offers of help in the hopes of further swaying the Mabifian government towards their influence. By late 2020 an estimated 90-100 Million Euclos had been donated in aid by all parties, which helped at least in the short term to limit starvation. There have been reports of this food aid being siezed by militant groups and used as a weapon of war.
Significant controversy has surrounded the role of the GIFA in the crisis, with the organisation standing behind its support for cash crop cultivation and repeating the government's claim that the issues have primarily been caused by smallholder farmers overusing the soil. This is likely because Mabifia is one of the largest exporters of palm oil and coffee in the world, and these commodities would increase in price should Mabifian cultivation decline.
Impact
Health
The crisis had seen major impacts upon the health of Mabifia's citizens. Children in particular have been adversely affected, with an estimated 35-40% of all children in Mabifia experiencing malnutrition. In some areas, this proportion is much higher. Many people have passed away due to starvation, with thousands of excess deaths estimated. As with many health issues in Mabifia, it is hard to determine accurate numbers for this. The crisis has also led many people to die of other health conditions such as malaria, as their undernourished bodies are less able to resist the virus. Though children are more vulnerable to this type of fatality, parents have also been impacted. Many children have been orphaned by the crisis. Shantytowns have emerged in most major urban centres to accomodate the waves of migrants. These areas have very little infrastructure, often being without medical care or safe drinking water.
Cholera outbreaks have been linked to the crisis, as increasingly desparate people are forced to drink from unclean water sources because of the dorught conditions. Unsafe food sources have also been associated with the crisis. A report by Aide aux Enfants found that many families have turned to foraging to sustain themselves, and many have come to clinics with serious food poisoning after eating plants which are poisonous. Bushmeat has also become even more important to many people's diet, bringing with it issues around disease. Accounts of scavenging roadkill and other carcasses have also been substantiated in certain areas.
Economic
As the majority of Mabifia's export revenue is due to petroleum and other mining related exports, the country's gross domestic product has remained stable for much of the crisis. The government's decision to prioritise export industries over the domestic food situation, due to pressures from the GIFA and other external financial bodies, has aggravated the crisis. Mabifia has been forced to take out more loans in order to secure short term food reserves in the country, resulting in a higher budget deficit. Certain voices on the left have expressed concern that this will lock Mabifia into a debt bondage relationship, as the need to pay off these loans will translate to greater investment in export-facing economic production, which will lead to a worsening food production situation, in turn forcing the government to take out more loans and creating a vicious cycle.
On the personal level, the crisis has been catastrophic for much of the population. Small landowners, who make up the bulk of the country's rural population, have been made destitute by poor yields and higher prices for water. Many have been pushed towards taking out loans, which are often administered fraudulently especially in rural areas where illiteracy is common and moneylenders will often have a close relationship with the police. This has forced many to surrender their lands and migrate to urban centres, or enter into conditions which have been compared to modern-day slavery. The government's seizure of unregistered rural property was similarly destructive, destroying the livelihoods of thousands. Compensation for illegally seized land has been slow and often nonexistent. In urban centres, many small vendors have been unable to continue to sell food as it is hard to obtain it. This has disproportionally affected women, particularly widows who make up a large proportion of the small urban vendors. Women's rights non-governmental organisations have warned that prostitution and human trafficking have become more widespread, preying on these women in precarious situations. Unemployment has risen, and as social services in Mabifia are chronically underfunded most unemployed people have been forced into the informal economy.
Political
The crisis has been a major blow to the popularity of both president Mahmadou Jolleh Bande and the Bahian Renaissance Party, who have taken the bulk of the blame for the food insecurity in the country. Issues such as corruption and repression, which were already unpopular with the population, have been associated with the present hardships and become even less popular. Though the Mabifian press is restricted and political opposition under constant threat of disappearance, the popularity of opposition candidates such as Fanta Diallo has been read by many commentators as a sign of rising discontent which could threaten the BRP regime.
Numerous protests have taken place in the country. The most significant of these was in Ouagedji in late August 2021, when more than 10,000 protestors came out to demand the government's resignation and more support to those affected by the crisis. Groups such as the People's Coalition for Makanian National Sovereignty have stepped up their efforts in Makania, decrying the government's handling of the crisis in the Makania region as tantamount to genocide. Other Insigahanga groups in the east of the country have also been involved in anti-government violence, which has sparked fears of a return to violence in Mabifia. This has been swelled by instability in neighbouring Yemet, where anti-government violence has been rising. The worry is that a situation of civil war in the neighbouring country would create refugees and place more strain on the already weakened Mabifian state, which could be a catalyst for violence.