Corrective Revolution (Carloso)

Corrective Revolution
Part of the Musgorocian Autumn
Date	23 August 2010 (2010-08-23) – 11 February 2011 (5 months, 2 weeks and 5 days)
Location	Carloso
Goals	Resignation of Montero Irisar
Methods	Demonstrations Civil resistance Civil disobedience Online activism Rioting Military rebellion
Resulted in	Opposition victory Military intervene and put President Irisar and Deputy President Galcerán under house arrest for the remainder of their terms Abortion plebiscite is abandoned; electronic voting machines seized and eventually scrapped National Salvation win the 2010 election; Cárlos Tobón is sworn in as President Approximately 10,000 left-wing militants flee to Thouthen and Kesslerstaadt
Parties to the civil conflict
Anti-government protesters Organisation for the Fatherland National Falange for the Unborn Supported by: National Salvation Synarchist Union Social National Party Carlosian Armed Forces Carlosian Army 10 brigades Carlosian Air Force Government of Carloso Montero Irisar Executive Council Law enforcement Madrigal Police Supported by: Conservative Party Democratic Party Socialist Republicans
Lead figures
Cárlos Tobón Jorge Spalderán Estebán Santander Régulo Moran Montero Irisar Michel Galcerán
Number
5 million protesters at peak 50,000 soldiers 350,000 counter-protesters at peak 5,000 militants
Casualties
21 dead, hundreds wounded 278 dead, hundreds wounded

The Corrective Revolution (Carlosian: TBD) was a period of grave civil conflict and general political unrest that occurred in the months leading up to the 2010 Carlosian general election. Though it is still debated when exactly the Corrective Revolution began, most analysts agree that it was the wave of protests which took place on 23 August 2010 against the Conservative–Democratic coalition's plans to hold a referendum on the Constitution of Carloso's total ban on abortion. It is widely agreed that the Corrective Revolution had a profound effect on Carlosian political and civil life, directly responsible for what has been widely regarded as the greatest electoral shock in Carlosian history.

Mass defections and popular uproar over President Irisar's handling of the demonstrations crippled the Conservatives and resulted in the decimation of the two dominant parties; the centre-right Conservatives and centrist Democrats, who had both dominated Carlosian politics since the late 19th century. National Salvation came several seats short of a majority in the 2010 election, but managed to enter a coalition with the newly formed Rural Independents Group and form a government. Spalderán declined to be nominated President, resulting in Tobón being chosen instead.

Background

Democratic-led government

Following the 2000 general election, the Conservative Party, led by President Adán Spalderán, lost its majority in the National Assembly. Michel Galcerán, leader of the Democratic Party, seized the oppurtunity and set about building a rainbow coalition with several smaller parties; the Socalist Republicans, Progressive Conservatives and Green Alternative, to unseat Spalderán and end 35 years of continous Conservative rule in Carloso. Shortly after Galcerán was elected President, Spalderán was defeated in a leadership challenge by Montero Irisar. Unlike Spalderán, Irisar was precieved as being much more socially and economically liberal, breaking from the Conservative tradition of Carlosian nationalism and staunch traditionalism in social matters. His victory marked the beginnings of a rift within the party, especially between Irisar's centrists and the new generation of only recently elected, ambitious National Assemblymen; such as Cárlos Tobón and Jorge Spalderán, who were characterised by their staunch anti-communism and ultranationalist outlook. Not long after entering government, the new coalition published a document setting out a programme of social reforms, including plans to completely abolish the restrictive regulations on the sale of contraceptives, legalise same-sex civil partnerships and abolish the near-zero immigration cap. Additionally, a plan of massive financial deregulation was drawn up, calling for the privatisation of large swathes of state-owned enterprises, such as the electricity network, railways and airlines. The coalition agreed to demands by Green Alternative to introduce a carbon tax and increase duties on petrol and diesel.

From its inception, the governing Democratic-led coalition proved volatile at best. The plans to deregulate large sectors of the economy immediately sparked disquiet within the Socialist Republicans, who had been quite happy to maintain the status quo. An attempt in late 2001 to have the party leader Isador Eguren unseated failed, and the Socialist Republicans remained part of the coalition.

Build-up

As part of the deal reached between Irisar and Galcerán, it was agreed that while Irisar would become President of the Executive Council, the Democratic Party and Socialist Republicans would control most of the positions on the Executive Council. Among these, the Democratic Party would be awarded the portfolio of the Minister of Health. Galcerán's choice to fill the role was Esdras Retana (Sargos-5), a general practioner who served as press secretary of the pro-abortion National Organisation for Reproductive Rights (NORR), the main pressure group for the decriminalisation of abortion in Carloso. Despite fierce opposition from the traditionalist wing of the Conservative Party; newly appointed Minister of Finance Cárlos Tobón going so far as refusing to attend Executive Council meetings where Retana was present, in late 2006 he began the process of exploring legal avenues that would result in the watering down and ultimately the elimination of Carloso's abortion laws. Concurrently, the Socialist Republicans were given control of the Department of Education, Estrella Mira (Zararcia-11) becoming Minister of Education and almost immediately expressing her desire to remove the Catholic Church from its position as the main patron of primary and secondary education in Carloso. As part of the programme for government, Irisar and Galcerán released a statement agreeing on a checklist of supposed 'social reforms'. In addition to liberalising the abortion law and secularising education, it was also planned to introduce civil partnerships for same-sex couples.

On 4 January 2007, Retana clandestinely contacted the Regional Director of the World Health Authority in Musgorocia, Célestin Proust, asking him for his organisation's assistance in deploying 'active measures' against a still highly conservative Carlosian populace, noting the success of similar tactics in other jurisdictions. With Tobón in control of the Department of Finance and its civil service gutted in favour of staff loyal to Tobón, Retana found his own department increasingly cash-strapped, unable to pressure for the broader societal change he desired. Desperate for funding, Retana used his links with Proust to access funding from a secretive group of benefactors, the identity of whom remains unknown to this day. Over the course of the next few months, various seemingly organic non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and interest groups were established to lobby for a change in the law, and while the reception to these organisations was initially mixed at first, their increased media exposure began to slowly albeit surely soften Carlosian attitudes to abortion. A major breakthrough would come with the airing of a documentary on RTC which detailed the journeys of several young Carlosian women who had chosen to fly abroad to Thouthen and even as far as Kesslerstaadt to seek an abortion.

Discussion moved from a general relaxing of the penalties for having an abortion to holding a plebiscites on a rectification to remove the prohibition on abortion altogether. While the Conservative Party had retained control of the Department of Justice, with Aitor Curiel (Madrigal-16) serving as Minister of Justice, on 13 July 2008 Retana bypassed Curiel to make a direct request to the Attorney General of Carloso, Nereo Durand, to stop bringing charges against women for travelling abroad to seek abortions or attempting to perform an abortion on themselves, de facto decriminalising the procedure. Durand acquiesced to Retana, despite protest from Curiel, with President Irisar ultimately intervening and directing Curiel to drop the matter. Following this debacle, Curiel quietly resigned; ostensibly on health grounds, and made contact with Tobón declaring his intention to back him should a leadership challenge against Irisar arise in the future, while also expressing the need to consolidate opposition to the accelerating agenda of social liberalisation being pursued by Retana and the other Democratic and Socialist Republican members of the Executive Council. After Deputy President Galcerán threatened to pull out of the coalition if Curiel's successor wasn't from his party, Irisar agreed to his demands to appoint Adrien Calderón (Cartalusia-2). Meanwhile, despite Tobón's reluctance, he agreed to commence holding discussions with sympathetic members within the party in the hopes of eventually ousting Irisar, largely thanks to the encouragement of his friend, businessman Alejandro Hiroyuki.

In response to the effective nullification of criminal penalties for abortion, Esequiel Semprún, Archbishop of Madrigal, directed Catholic priests to deliver sermons condemning the actions of the government. Buoyed by interdenominational co-operation with the more conservative elements of the Church of Carloso and the fundamentalist Free Presbyterian Church, and the support of the ultranationalist Organisation for the Fatherland and catch-all National Falange for the Unborn, it was jointly decided that a massive anti-abortion demonstration would be held in Madrigal on 7 September. Despite the Madrigal Police refusing to issue a permit for the protest, up to 150,000 marched through the streets of Madrigal, bringing traffic to a standstill. In a retaliatory move against Semprún for organising it, Estrella Mira announced that she would begin to forcibly wrest control of schools from the Catholic Church through compulsory purchase. Owing to the protection of private property in the Constitution of Carloso, however, as soon Mira attempted to go about this, she was halted by an injunction from the High Court on petition from Semprún. Soon afterwards, a grouping of conservative solicitors launched a successful action for judicial review against Nereo Durand at the High Court, ordering him to recommence prosecutions for seeking and performing abortions. Durand attempted to appeal the decision at the Supreme Court, however the court refused to hear him, Chief Justice Muruaga Hinostrosa threatening to remove him from office if he did not comply.

In light of this decision, at the behest of Retana and Galcerán, Irisar announced on 12 January 2009 that a plebiscite would be held coinciding with the next general election on 11 November 2010 on a proposal to delete Article 20.2 from the Constitution. This was despite the fact that opinion polls were consistently showing that there would not be nearly enough support for the proposal to pass, one such survey by the Madrigal Times on 4 April 2009 showing that only 32% of voters supported the complete removal of the ban. Concerned that it would not pass, Retana conspired with the Democratic Minister of Internal Affairs Melitón Saturnino (Valender-8) to announce the procurement of 380,000 electronic voting machines, ostensibly as part of the Democratic Party's push for greater e-democracy. These machines were procured from a non-profit organisation; the Forum for eGovernment, linked to the World Assembly (WA) and advocating for the retirement of paper ballots in favour of electronic and internet-based methods. When the intention to debut these at the abortion plebiscite was revealed, backlash was immediate and fierce, with a large number of Conservative politicians, as well as Synarchist and Communist NAs, accusing Retana and the Democratic Party in general of planning to rig future elections in their favour. A review of similar voting machines by an independent security firm, on behalf of the Secano Sentinel, demonstrated that the machines suffered from many egregious security flaws, including being able to be easily hacked by swapping out their firmware. Despite the opposition, Irisar refused to intervene and allowed Saturnino to proceed with the roll-out of the machines.

Timeline of events

High Court case

As 2009 progressed, various legal scholars warned that the plebiscite might be proven ineffective if a Carlosian court ruled that protections for the unborn extended beyond Article 20.2. In a column for the Madrigal Times, Higinio Landa, a Professor of Jurisprudence at the University of Estregal specifically pointed out several cases that had come before the courts in recent years where complainants sought damages having been born with various physical disabilities after violent assault by the defendant on their mother while they were in utero. This proved to be an accurate assessment, which was realised on 29 July 2010 when the High Court announced its judgement in Beltrán v Marquina. Justice Efrén Cepeda ruled in favour of the complainant, opining that unborn children enjoy the exact same legal protection as a born human being, beyond the provisions of Article 20.2. Referencing a plethora of case law examples from similar circumstances, there was initially some confusion over whether Cepeda's remarks on the extra-constitutional protections of the unborn constituted ratio decidendi or obiter dicta. Regardless, it was now apparent that this precedent threatened to neuter the upcoming plebiscite, and was condemned by those agitating in support of it, with Madrigal Reproductive Alliance (MRA) chairwoman Martina Lépine describing it as "legalistic bullshit". The day of the judgement, pro-abortion demonstrators; mainly students from the University of Madrigal, protested outside the High Court. Cepeda immediately issued an order for the protesters to disperse, accusing them of trying to intimidate the complainant and pervert the operations of the court itself. The 320-strong group refused to disperse, and the Madrigal Police subsequently corralled and arrested all of them on the grounds of contempt of court, each being fined D£1,500 ($3,261). Though the case had finished, the arrests led to over 4,500 pro-abortion demonstrators to protest outside the High Court over the next few days. They eventually opted to disperse peacefully. Conversely, anti-abortion groups and politicians praised Cepeda's reasoning.

On 6 August, Galcerán convened a meeting with Retana, Irisar and Calderón in Morcon, Muron to discuss the implications of the High Court's decision. While Attorney General Durand could appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, the court's previous decision in the judicial review case against him led to the assumption that the predominantly conservative justices would inevitably uphold Cepeda's reasoning. Mindful of the Limitations Statute (1992/4B), which required an appeal to a decision by the High Court to be lodged at the Supreme Court within 28 days of the verdict, on 9 August President Irisar hurriedly appointed four new justices to the Supreme Court, hand-picked by Galcerán and breaking the convention that only nine justices were ever to sit on the court at one time. This exploited a loophole in Carlosian law that did not set any limit for the number of appointees, only stipulating that it had to be an odd number. Only then did Durand lodge the appeal, beginning the Attorney General v Beltrán case. The swiftness of the political manoeuvre; the appointment of the new justices at midnight and the lodging of the appeal happening within 8 hours of each other, sparked uproar from the right-wing of the Conservative Party, driving more support in Tobón's direction. Irisar was roundly attacked in the national media, the traditionally Conservative-supporting Valender Telegraph leading with the headline "National Disgrace". Between the packing of the Supreme Court and the deployment of flawed electronic voting machines, it had become clear to Tobón that those who supported the liberalisation of abortion in Carloso were planning to implement their agenda at any cost. Chief Justice Hinostrosa, though furious, allowed the appeal to go ahead, as while the actions of Irisar were clearly unethical, they were not unconstitutional.

On foot of Durand lodging the appeal, several organisations; the Organisation for the Fatherland, the National Falange for the Unborn, a veterans group the National Restoration Committee, plus several Catholic and Presbyterian organisations, came together to constitute an informal 'war room', calling for massive protests in Madrigal against the government. On the morning of 11 August, an estimated 500,000 protesters descended on Victoria Square and demonstrated at Echegaray Palace, calling on Irisar to resign. While the protests were peaceful, the police struggled to muster the logistics to deal with such a large demonstration, which hadn't been witnessed in the city since the victory parade following Carloso's success in the Bourgougian Blitz in 1987. On 14 August, Tobón met privately with General Régulo Moran; commander of the 1st Field Army and a personal friend of his since the Bourgougian Blitz, and discussed the matter. Moran assured Tobón that many military officers were becoming concerned with the government's actions and had contingency measures in place if the situation were to deteriorate further.

Supreme Court attack

Atrium of the Supreme Court building following the fire.

The beginning of the Supreme Court case galvanised forces on both the pro and anti-abortion side of the argument. At Sunday mass at Madrigal Cathedral on 9 May, Archbishop Semprún proclaimed a 'rosary crusade', calling on Catholics to camp outside the Supreme Court and pray for the defeat of the pro-abortion movement. That afternoon thousands of anti-abortion protesters descended on the Supreme Court, camping overnight as proceedings continued the next day. As the date for the beginning of Supreme Court proceedings on Attorney General v Beltrán drew nearer, the pro and anti-abortion movements were galvanised into mass action. Tens of thousands were drawn to the streets outside the Supreme Court in Madrigal. The police tried to keep the two groups separate, trying to avoid any escalation into violence. The Supreme Court was scheduled to make a ruling on 6 September 2010. Madrigal city centre, including the entirety of the district of Echegaray was shut down to traffic for several weeks as the case continued. Meanwhile, Tobón and his allies in the Conservative Party met in secret and discussed what their next move would be if the Supreme Court ruled in favour of the government and the referendum went ahead.

On 6 September, the Supreme Court ruled 8-5 in favour of the government, including all of the justices recently appointed by Irisar, overruling the decision of the High Court and declaring that the right to life of the unborn did not extend beyond the Article 20.2 of the Constitution. Dissenting Chief Justice Muruaga Hinostrosa shockingly denounced his colleagues in his own oral judgement, and abruptly left the building. The morning of the decision, reports began to emerge that some individuals within the crowd were apparently armed. Almost immediately after the ruling was announced, violence broke out outside between the pro and anti-abortion supporters, the mêlée completely overwhelming the police. Protestors within the pro-abortion camp then scaled the security barriers which had been erected to block off the entrance to the Supreme Court, proceeding to break down the main door and storm the building. Within an hour, a large portion of the building was engulfed in flames after a protestor attempting to light a cigarette in the Chief Justice's office accidently set fire to the curtains. By the time it had been extinguished, the fire had killed 36 people and injured hundreds more. The remaining justices managed to narrowly escape through a back entrance, and were evacuated to Moraila Barracks, a Carlosian Army base in the city centre. As soon as news of the violence had spread, Tobón, Santander, Spalderán and several other Conservative NAs informed Irisar that they were resigning from the party, announcing the formation of National Salvation as a new political entity to stand in the next general election.

Violence spreads and crackdown

National Police on the streets of Madrigal on the night of 7 September.

That evening and throughout the night, violence had began to spread to almost every major city in Carloso. As the cause of the Supreme Court fire was unknown, a multitude of conspiracy theories quickly grabbed hold of the public imagination. Pro-abortion activists accused the anti-abortion protestors of having started the fire in an attempt to kill the justices who had ruled in favour of the government in Attorney General v Beltrán, while anti-abortion activists accused the other side of starting the fire in an attempt to frame them. Archbishop Semprún reiterated his call for Carlosians to descend on Madrigal, joined by other allied organisations. Pro-abortion groups, meanwhile, encouraged their own activists and supporters to descend on the city to counter the anti-abortion demonstrations, which began to swell in number. Madrigal's Chief Minister, Elías Gelista, ordered the police to restore order, but they struggled to do so in the face of the overwhelming numbers of protesters. At 15:05 on 7 September, President Irisar formerly declared a state of emergency, and ordered the National Police in to assist provincial authorities in putting down the unrest. Curiel's replacement as Minister of Justice, Narcisa Réndon (Arascay-11), a member of the left-wing of the Democratic Party, secretly ordered Commissioner René Mercader to disproportionately target the anti-abortion protesters, employing water cannons, tear gas and rubber bullets against them.

While many areas of the city were successively cleared, the heavy-handedness of the response provoked public outrage. In the afternoon of 8 September, an incident occurred on Ursua Square in Madrigal where a 11 year-old girl, Arabela Líra, was fatally wounded by a rubber bullet, the scenes of her dying in the arms of her mother causing uproar and widespread disgust. The immediate aftermath of the killing was caught by nearby television camera, and was aired around the world. At this point, the protests began to take on another dimension entirely, moving from opposition to the Supreme Court ruling on abortion to general discontent with the conduct of the authorities and general grievances with the state of the country and its economy. That night, ant-government protesters began to actively attack law enforcement, torching police stations and vehicles, while hurling Molotov cocktails and other projectiles at riot police. Gun stores and police arsenals were looted, and running battles between armed gunmen and police resulted in numerous deaths and injuries.

Military intervention

See also: Battle of Madrigal (2010)

General Régulo Moran surrounded government buildings with armoured vehicles and ordered the military to protect demonstrators.

By the morning of 9 September, it became apparent that the Madrigal Police were unable to effectively counteract the demonstrations. Overnight riots had spread to the suburbs of Madrigal and there were widespread reports of arson and looting. Mass protests and violence had also broken out in cities across Carloso. At 11:55 Irisar contacted Madrigal's Chief Minister Elías Gelista, informing him that he would be taking control of the Madrigal Provincial Guard in order to put down the demonstrations and restore order in Madrigal. Gelista informed Irisar that he had already made contact with General Báptiste Mulero, commander of the Provincial Guard, earlier that morning, and indicated to him that he would refuse to comply with any orders issued. At 13:07 President Irisar contacted General Régulo Moran; commander of the 1st Field Army, directly and ordered him to put down the demonstrations in Madrigal. Moran refused to obey Irisar's orders. He was immediately dismissed as Commander of the 1st Field Army but Moran refused to acknowledge this. Irisar later attempted to get in contact with the commanders of the 2nd and 3rd Field Armies, but neither responded to his phone calls. According to witness accounts from his aides at the time, Irisar began to fear that the military were working with the opposition and that they would attempt to execute a coup.

Within an hour, Moran had ordered armoured vehicles to enter the city and surround government department buildings. Tanks rolled down the Avenue to the Federal Republic and sealed off the Palace of the Parliament. The swiftness of the operation caught the central government completely off guard. Irisar denounced Moran's intervention as a "coup d'état", threatening publicly to have him court-martialled for treason. By 18:39 the First Army had seized control of all roads leading into the city and soldiers had been deployed to protect anti-abortion demonstrators from law enforcement. At this stage, the city was being placed under de facto martial law. The Madrigal Metropolitan Police Service was effectively disarmed by the military and officers were ordered back into their stations. Several incidences of armed clashes between soldiers and police officers who refused to demobilise were reported, with the most serious occurring in the suburb of East Bethsaida. Five police and one soldier were killed, with many more injured.

In the early hours of 10 September, an army patrol caught President Irisar and Minister for External Affairs Thomas MacFhearchair trying to escape Madrigal via a back road. While Irisar was swiftly returned to the Presidential Palace and placed under house arrest, MacFhearchair was interrogated by military police, revealing that the two men had planned to flee Carloso and seek asylum in neighbouring Agostinia. Moran held a press conference outside the Palace of the Parliament and informed news media about Irisar's attempt to leave Carloso. Overnight, Irisar's approval ratings plummeted. The same day, Tobón made a fiery speech atop a FV5295 Cerberus tank destroyer to 100,000 supporters at the entrance to the Parliament of Carloso, denouncing Irisar as a "coward" and a "thundering disgrace", demanding he resign from office immediately.

Aftermath

To ensure courting-packing could not occur in future, coinciding with the ward elections on 6 June 2011, a plebiscite was held to permanently set the number of Supreme Court justices at 9. It passed overwhelmingly in favour, 79.4% in favour. On the same day a non-binding vote on Carloso leaving the World Assembly was held, with 63.3% in favour. Carloso subsequently withdrew from the WA later that year, declaring all its employees persona non grata.