2021 Etrurian federal election: Difference between revisions

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The [[Social Democratic Party (Etruria)|SD]] had their best result since 2013 at 31% seeing gains in every state except [[Aeolia]] and [[Tarpeia]]; it is also the first time since 2009 that emerged as the official party of opposition (having entered into a {{wp|grand coalition}} in 2013 through to 2016). The SD secured some of the highest recorded swings in constituency seats since they were introduced in 2002, with the highest being 28.95% in [[Dinara|Marsaglia-Cansoira]], which they gained from the Tribune Movement. The SD saw its best results in [[Dinara]], [[Chiastre]] and [[Novalia]] and [[Solaria]]. In Chiastre they seized five of the seven constituency seats, up from three; in Novalia they gained 29 seats, including every seat in [[Dubovica]] and [[Barijerni Otoci]]. In [[Veratia]], the SD captured [[Caxeri]]'s four seats and [[Piavenna]]'s five seats. The SD captured or held 11 of Solaria's 21 seats, making four gains from the Tribune Movement.
The [[Social Democratic Party (Etruria)|SD]] had their best result since 2013 at 31% seeing gains in every state except [[Aeolia]] and [[Tarpeia]]; it is also the first time since 2009 that emerged as the official party of opposition (having entered into a {{wp|grand coalition}} in 2013 through to 2016). The SD secured some of the highest recorded swings in constituency seats since they were introduced in 2002, with the highest being 28.95% in [[Dinara|Marsaglia-Cansoira]], which they gained from the Tribune Movement. The SD saw its best results in [[Dinara]], [[Chiastre]] and [[Novalia]] and [[Solaria]]. In Chiastre they seized five of the seven constituency seats, up from three; in Novalia they gained 29 seats, including every seat in [[Dubovica]] and [[Barijerni Otoci]]. In [[Veratia]], the SD captured [[Caxeri]]'s four seats and [[Piavenna]]'s five seats. The SD captured or held 11 of Solaria's 21 seats, making four gains from the Tribune Movement.


The [[Citizens' Alliance (Etruria)|Citizens' Alliance]] had their worst result since its inception in 2011, losing 110 seats and retaining only 31, predominately through the party list. The party only held 14 constituency seats and saw a 10 point drop in its vote share from 2018.
The [[Citizens' Alliance (Etruria)|Citizens' Alliance]] had their worst result since its inception in 2011, losing 110 seats and retaining only 31, predominately through the party list. The party only held 14 constituency seats and saw a 10 point drop in its vote share from 2018. The Citizens' witnessed a collapse of their vote share across the country, though this was most pronounced in the states of [[Palestrina]], [[Tarpeia]], [[Aeolia]], [[Accadia]] and [[Chiastre]]. In Accadia for example, the Citizens saw as much as a 20 point decrease, to benefit both the SD and the [[Sotirian People's Force]]. In several seats, the increase in the SD vote share was off-set by the failure of the SPF's ability to break through, enabling the Tribune Movement to capture seats through a {{wp|split vote}}. The Citizens' remaining seats were isolated in near totality to urban seats in Etruria's largest cities and the affluent suburban seats of [[Faulia]].
 
The losses suffered by the Citizens' were such, that several prominent {{wp|frontbench}}ers lost their seats including; [[Citizens' Alliance|Giacomo Bruno Verdi]], the spokesman for finance, [[Citizens' Alliance|Mariella Fontana]], spokeswoman for Health and Social Services, [[Citizens' Alliance|Marco Alberici]], spokesman for Industry and Labour Affairs and [[Citizens' Alliance|Donnatella Maria Campitelli]], the Party Treasurer.
 
The [[Farmers and Workers Union]] suffered its worst result since 2009, losing six seats but over 5 points in its share of the popular vote. The party saw the total loss of its seats in [[Dubovica]] and half the seats of Coastal Novalia, notably its majority in [[Supetar]] was slashed by 22,000 votes, the seat widely considered to be its birthplace and stronghold. The party saw its majorities slashed on average by 10,000 votes across all seats it held, while seats it sought to gain from the SD, saw vote shares declined by almost 10%. A vast majority of of voters left the party for the SD, while a smaller percentage defected to the SPF.
 
The [[Sotirian People's Force]] having entered the election with 51 seats, all drawn from defectors lost 47 seats and retained only four. Its leader, [[Vittore Eugenio Agrella]] was elected to Accadia Centro with a majority of 18,530. As the party of {{wp|Christian Democracy|Sotirian Democracy}}, it scored the worst result for the traditional Etrurian political strain since its emergence in the 1940s and 1950s under the [[Etrurian Third Republic]]. The party's four seats were restricted entirely to [[Accadia (Etruria)|Accadia]] the state, and [[Accadia]] the city.
 
[[Popular Renewal (Etruria)|Popular Renewal]] secured its best result since its foundation in 2010, winning over a million votes and three constituency seats. It won the [[Tarpeia|Tarpeian]] seat of [[Tarpeia|Villa Vicentina-Saciletto]], the [[Faulia|Faulian]] seat of [[Faulia|L'Aquila]] and the seat of [[Stazzona|Borgaccio]] in Stazzona. The party leader, [[Aurelia Favazza]] won the seat of Borgaccio with a majority of 8,699 and her surprise win is credited to the SD candidate falling foul of voters after he was caught paying youngsters to spray anti-Citizens' Alliance graffiti on walls. The party's vote came from predominately ethnic-{{wp|Serbians|Miruvians}} and disenchanted SD voters who felt the party had moved to far to the centre. Popular Renewal's entry into the federal legislature marked the first time a far-left political party had federal representation since the [[United Socialist Worker's Party (Etruria)|United Social Worker's Party]] of the [[Etrurian Third Republic]] (1948-1960).


== Responses ==
== Responses ==

Revision as of 22:37, 11 October 2021

2021 Etrurian federal election

← 2018 October 8, 2021 (2021-10-08)

All 600 seats to the Chamber of Representatives
301 seats needed for a majority
Turnout73.60% (-6.11%)
  First party Second party Third party
  Giuseppe Conte Official.jpg Carmen Calvo 2018 (cropped).jpg Carlo Calenda crop.jpeg
Leader Francesco Carcaterra Chiara Mastromarino Mauro Cesare Capra
Party Tribune Movement/Social Party of the Third Order Social Democratic Party Citizens’ Alliance
Leader since 13 March 2012 10 July 2021
Leader's seat San Metello in Valle San Alessandro III Monteperano
Seats before 402 38 160
Seats won 373 166 31
Seat change Decrease 29 Increase 128 Decrease 110
Popular vote 16,101,865 11,300,449 5,500,863
Percentage 44.20% 31.02% 15.10%
Swing TBD TBD TBD

  Fourth party
  DKcroppedFWU.png
Leader Davor Krstičević
Party Farmers and Workers Union
Leader since 3 February 2015
Leader's seat Kanfanar
Seats before 29
Seats won 23
Seat change Decrease 6
Popular vote 1,129,316
Percentage 3.10%

Etruria Electoral Map.png

President before election

Francesco Carcaterra
Tribune Movement

Elected President

Francesco Carcaterra
Tribune Movement

The 2021 Etruria federal election will take place on November 05, 2021, to elect all 600 members of the Chamber of Represenatives to the XXth Etrurian Senate. The legal documents dissolving the Senate for the period of 05 October to 05 November was accepted by President of the Chamber Ivano Jandroković after President Francesco Carcaterra utilised his constitutional power to call a snap election.

Background

Date

The Articles of Federation (Articoli della Federazione) state under Article 20 that elections for the Chamber of Representatives must be elected no later than 30 days after the fourth or fifth anniversary of the first sitting of the current Chamber (Camera). The dissolution of the current Camera must take place 30 days before election day, excluding public holidays, and the newly elected Camera must hold its first sitting within 14 days of election day, not including public holidays.

Article 21 of the Articles of Federation grants the Etrurian executive the right to dissolve the sitting Camera and hold an election at any point of their choosing within the 5-year maximum period. Should an early election be called it must be held on the first friday of any given month. The dissolution of the Camera maybe pre-announced according to Article 21.2 - for example, the 2021 election was declared in August and the current Camera was to be dissolved on 5 October, exactly 30 days before the dated election on 5 November. The government may dissolve the Camera without a parliamentary vote.

Electoral system

Following the passing of the 2021 Legislative and Electoral Reform Law on 23 August 2021, the electoral system was radically overhauled. The Chamber of Representatives was reduced in size from 680 to 600 and the electoral voting system was also changed. Of the 600 members, 500 are elected by first past the post to single-member constituencies, while the remaining 100 are elected by party list to a single national constituency. How the party list results are calculated was also changed in the law, ending state-level results being collated, to now the seats being awareded on the basis of the national vote from FPTP seats.

Since 2004, Etruria's elections have operated a 5% electoral threshold for parties to be awarded seats on the party-list, this is the same for coalitions of any size. FPTP seats are distributed across Etruria's fifteen states in line population with Veratia, the most populous, holding 189 seats and Il Dogado, the smallest, only 8. Seat apportionment is subject to non-binding review every four years, and officially reviewed with changes every decade following a national census.

The required majority to form a government is 301 seats. Prior to 2017, when all of Etruria's seats were elected under the party-list system, coalitions and agreements were necessary for governments to be formed. However, the 2017 Etrurian constitutional referendum introduced FPTP to 400 seats and enabled the Tribune Movement (incumbent government since 2016) to be elected in 2018, as the first single-party government since the end of the Military junta and restoration of democracy in 1984.

Parties and leaders

The 2017 constitutional amendments also included changes to the requirements for parties to compete in federal elections. In order to officially be registered, a political party must hold seats at the state and local level, both of which are set at a minimum of 10 seats. Candidates for constituency seats must also pay a ₣2,680 deposit, while those competing for party-list seats need to pay ₣1,200, which are returned if a candidate secures more than 5% of votes. It has been consistently rare for local/state level parties to compete federally, often campaigning on behalf of a national party that shares similar agendas or ideological beliefs.

The Federal Electoral Commission reported on 20 September that four parties had officially registered candidates to compete in the election and had met the requirements.

Parties/Coalitions represented in the XXth Chamber of Representatives
Party/Coalition
Style
Ideology Leader(s) 2018 result Current
seats
Votes (%) Seats
Patria Tribune Movement
Movimento Tribvne
Right-wing populism Francesco Carcaterra 53.66%
414 / 680
402 / 680
Farmers and Workers Union
UAL
National conservatism Davor Krstičević
29 / 680
29 / 680
Social Party of the Third Party
Partito Sociale del Terz'Ordine
Syncretic
Sotirian socialism (economic), Sotirian right (social)
[[ ]] Did not exist
0 / 680
Citizens' Alliance
AC
Classical liberalism Mauro Cesare Capra 28.58%
160 / 680
160 / 680
Sotirian People's Force
Forza Popolare Sotiriana
Sotirian democracy Vittore Eugenio Agrella Did not exist
51 / 680
Social Democratic Party
SD
Social democracy Chiara Mastromarino 15.76%
38 / 680
38 / 680
Extra-parliamentary parties participating in the 2021 federal election
Party Leader Main ideology Position 2017 result Regions
contesting
Votes (%)
Popular Renewal
PR
Giorgio Begović Democratic socialism Left-wing 1.02% 485
Veratian National Party
Partito Nazionale Veraziani
Enrico Fattoiani Regionalism Centre-right 0.60% 23
Green Future
Futuro Verde
Alissa Santorini/Mario Giorgini Green socialism Left-wing 0.34% 105
Together for Carvagna
Insieme
Caterina D'Angeli Regionalism Centre-left 0.04% 39

Campaign

Debates

Etrurian federal election debates, 2021
Date Organisers Channel     P  Present    A  Absent invitee   NI  Non-invitee  Notes
MT/PSTO SD AC UAL FPS RP
23 September Orrizonte Media Orrizonte24 P
Carcaterra
P
Mastromarino
P
Capra
NI
Krstičević
P
Agrella
NI
Favazza
01 October ARE ARE P
Carcaterra
P
Mastromarino
P
Capra
NI
Krstičević
P
Agrella
P
Favazza

Endorsements

Newspapers and magazines

National newspapers

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
Telegrafo Solariano Tribune Movement
La Leone Tribune Movement
Il Popolo Social Democratic Party
Il Messaggero Aventino Social Democratic Party
L'Osservatore Tirrenio Tribune Movement
La Rassegna Finanziaria Citizens' Alliance Called for voters to back the party the most "mature and competent" economic plan.
l'Araldo Tribune Movement

National political magazines

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
Albero della Liberta Social Democratic Party Left-wing/Centrist political magazine
La Reppublica Social Democratic Party Left-wing political magazine
Occulus Tribune Movement Right-wing political magazine

Individuals

Tribune Movement

Social Democratic Party

Citizens' Alliance

Sotirian People's Force

Popular Renewal

Organisations and political parties

Tribune Movement
Social Democratic Party

Opinion polls

Pre-2021 election

Rolling national average from the previous federal election to the beginning of the 2021 election.

Results

Results for constituency results were released on the night of the election through to the early hours of the 9 October. The first seat to declare its result was San Casciano supra Mecurio at 23.40pm, the last seat to declare was Savudrija at 12.04pm the next day due to ten recounts taking place. By 04.27am, the Tribune Movement was officially declared the winner of the election after it exceeded 301 declared seats, with the Social Democratic Party being confirmed as the Party of Opposition shortly after at 04.29am, after the last Citizens' Alliance seat was declared. The Party List results were announced at 09.00am on the 9 October by the Federal Election Commission.

The Tribune Movement won 373 seats, down from 402 prior to the election (due to both the reduction of lawmakers from 650 to 600 and net losses to the SD), exceeding the exit poll by 5 seats. The SD won 166 seats, a net gain of 128 seats, exceeding the exit poll by 9 seats. The Citizens' Alliance won 31 seats, a net loss of 110 seats, securing less seats than the exit poll predicted. The Farmers and Workers Union won 23 seats, down by 6, the UAL defied the exit poll by three seats, the Sotirian People's Force which entered the election with 51 seats (all defections from the Tribune Movement and the defunct Democratic Alternative for Etruria), lost 47 seats to retain 4, though exceeding the exit poll by one seat. Popular Renewal entered the federal legislature for the first time, winning three seats.

373 166 31 23 4 3
MT/PSTO SD Citizens' UAL FPS RP
Chamber of Representatives 2021.png
Party Votes % Party list Constituency Total
Seats Seats Seats ±
MT/PSTO 16,101,865 44.20% (-4.62%) 49 324 373 -29
Social Democratic Party 11,300,449 31.02% (+17.84%) 34 132 166 +128
Citizens' Alliance 5,500,863 15.10% (-10.24%) 17 14 31 -110
Farmers and Workers Union 1,129,316 3.10% (-5.85%) 0 23 23 -6
Sotirian People's Force 1,165,745 3.20% (new) 0 4 4 -51
Popular Renewal 1,129,309 3.10% (+2.08) 0 3 3 +3
Green Future 49,582 0.13% (-0.13) 0 0 0 N/C
Veratian National Party 36,112 0.09% (-0.51) 0 0 0 N/C
Together for Carvagna 16,308 0.04% (N/C) 0 0 0 N/C

Analysis

While the election returned the Tribune Movement to government with a landslide majority of 146 seats, it also saw a 4.62% drop in its share of the popular vote from 2018. Tribune majorities in constituency seats were slashed by an average minimum of 5%, while in sixteen seats in Dinara, Peravia and north-central Veratia, the majorities to slashed by over 10 points to just mere hundreds of votes. While across many seats the SD surged to second place, the majority of votes lost by the Tribunes went over to the Sotirian People's Force, while a sizeable minority went to the SD. According to official research, these lost voters were near exclusively drawn from the upper-middle class, whom the Tribunes gained in 2018 and a smaller percentage came from the lower-middle class who form what many consider to the be the Tribune base. While the party lost 29 seats, the Tribune's share of the vote stands as their second best result after 2018, higher than 2016 when they first entered government. The Tribunes scored their best results in Carinthia winning every seat bar three outside of Praproče.

The SD had their best result since 2013 at 31% seeing gains in every state except Aeolia and Tarpeia; it is also the first time since 2009 that emerged as the official party of opposition (having entered into a grand coalition in 2013 through to 2016). The SD secured some of the highest recorded swings in constituency seats since they were introduced in 2002, with the highest being 28.95% in Marsaglia-Cansoira, which they gained from the Tribune Movement. The SD saw its best results in Dinara, Chiastre and Novalia and Solaria. In Chiastre they seized five of the seven constituency seats, up from three; in Novalia they gained 29 seats, including every seat in Dubovica and Barijerni Otoci. In Veratia, the SD captured Caxeri's four seats and Piavenna's five seats. The SD captured or held 11 of Solaria's 21 seats, making four gains from the Tribune Movement.

The Citizens' Alliance had their worst result since its inception in 2011, losing 110 seats and retaining only 31, predominately through the party list. The party only held 14 constituency seats and saw a 10 point drop in its vote share from 2018. The Citizens' witnessed a collapse of their vote share across the country, though this was most pronounced in the states of Palestrina, Tarpeia, Aeolia, Accadia and Chiastre. In Accadia for example, the Citizens saw as much as a 20 point decrease, to benefit both the SD and the Sotirian People's Force. In several seats, the increase in the SD vote share was off-set by the failure of the SPF's ability to break through, enabling the Tribune Movement to capture seats through a split vote. The Citizens' remaining seats were isolated in near totality to urban seats in Etruria's largest cities and the affluent suburban seats of Faulia.

The losses suffered by the Citizens' were such, that several prominent frontbenchers lost their seats including; Giacomo Bruno Verdi, the spokesman for finance, Mariella Fontana, spokeswoman for Health and Social Services, Marco Alberici, spokesman for Industry and Labour Affairs and Donnatella Maria Campitelli, the Party Treasurer.

The Farmers and Workers Union suffered its worst result since 2009, losing six seats but over 5 points in its share of the popular vote. The party saw the total loss of its seats in Dubovica and half the seats of Coastal Novalia, notably its majority in Supetar was slashed by 22,000 votes, the seat widely considered to be its birthplace and stronghold. The party saw its majorities slashed on average by 10,000 votes across all seats it held, while seats it sought to gain from the SD, saw vote shares declined by almost 10%. A vast majority of of voters left the party for the SD, while a smaller percentage defected to the SPF.

The Sotirian People's Force having entered the election with 51 seats, all drawn from defectors lost 47 seats and retained only four. Its leader, Vittore Eugenio Agrella was elected to Accadia Centro with a majority of 18,530. As the party of Sotirian Democracy, it scored the worst result for the traditional Etrurian political strain since its emergence in the 1940s and 1950s under the Etrurian Third Republic. The party's four seats were restricted entirely to Accadia the state, and Accadia the city.

Popular Renewal secured its best result since its foundation in 2010, winning over a million votes and three constituency seats. It won the Tarpeian seat of Villa Vicentina-Saciletto, the Faulian seat of L'Aquila and the seat of Borgaccio in Stazzona. The party leader, Aurelia Favazza won the seat of Borgaccio with a majority of 8,699 and her surprise win is credited to the SD candidate falling foul of voters after he was caught paying youngsters to spray anti-Citizens' Alliance graffiti on walls. The party's vote came from predominately ethnic-Miruvians and disenchanted SD voters who felt the party had moved to far to the centre. Popular Renewal's entry into the federal legislature marked the first time a far-left political party had federal representation since the United Social Worker's Party of the Etrurian Third Republic (1948-1960).

Responses

Domestic

International

Controversies

Political violence

Misinformation and social media

Polling day