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{{wip}}
{{Region icon MusgorociaSC}}
{{Region icon MusgorociaSC}}
{{Infobox election
{{Infobox election
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| opinion_polls    = 2020 Carlosian general election#Opinion polling
| opinion_polls    = 2020 Carlosian general election#Opinion polling
| registered        =  
| registered        =  
| turnout          =
| turnout          = 77.4% {{increase}} 0.9 {{wpl|percentage point|pp}}
| votes_counted = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign-->
| votes_counted = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign-->
| reporting = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign-->
| reporting = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign-->
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| leaders_seat1    = Madrigal 21st
| leaders_seat1    = Madrigal 21st
| last_election1    = 507
| last_election1    = 507
| seats_before1    = 509
| seats_before1    = 510
| seats_needed1    = 0
| seats_needed1    = 0
| seats1            =  
| seats1            = '''446'''
| seats_after1      =  
| seats_after1      =  
| seat_change1      =  
| seat_change1      = {{decrease}} 64
| popular_vote1    =  
| popular_vote1    =  
| percentage1      =
| percentage1      =
| swing1            =
| swing1            =
<!-- Conservative -->
<!-- Socialist Republicans -->
| image2            = [[File:(Valdis Dombrovskis) Візит Зеленського до інституцій ЄС і НАТО у Брюсселі, 2019, 7 (cropped).jpg|145x200px|border]]
| image2            = [[File:Sáenz de Santamaría se reúne con Inés Arrimadas, portavoz de Ciudadanos en el Parlamento de Cataluña (cropped).jpg|145x200px|border]]
| leader2          = [[Ferdinand Casares]]
| leader2          = [[Mariah Contreras]]
| party2            = Conservative Party (Carloso)
| party2            = Socialist Republicans (Carloso)
| alliance2        =  
| alliance2        =  
| leader_since2    = 3 January 2011
| leader_since2    = 2 March 2019
| leaders_seat2    = Tascay 9th
| leaders_seat2    = Madrigal 10th
| last_election2    = 183
| last_election2    = 30
| seats_before2    = 181
| seats_before2    = 27
| seats_needed2    =  
| seats_needed2    =  
| seats2            =  
| seats2            = 149
| seats_after2      =  
| seats_after2      =  
| seat_change2      =  
| seat_change2      = {{increase}} 122
| popular_vote2    =  
| popular_vote2    =  
| percentage2      =
| percentage2      =
| swing2            =
| swing2            =
<!-- Democratic -->
<!-- Democratic -->
| image4            = [[File:Kris-peeters-1391318830 (cropped).jpg|145x200px|border]]
| image4            = [[File:Kris Peeters (2015).jpg|145x200px|border]]
| leader4          = Elon Básaran
| leader4          = Elon Básaran
| party4            = Democratic Party (Carloso)
| party4            = Democratic Party (Carloso)
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| seats_before4    = 70
| seats_before4    = 70
| seats_needed4    =  
| seats_needed4    =  
| seats4            =  
| seats4            = 115
| seats_after4      =  
| seats_after4      =  
| seat_change4      =  
| seat_change4      = {{increase}} 45
| popular_vote4    =  
| popular_vote4    =  
| percentage4      =
| percentage4      =
| swing4            =
| swing4            =
<!-- Socialist Republicans -->
<!-- Synarchist Union -->
| image5            = [[File:Inés Arrimadas (cropped).jpg|145x200px|border]]
| image5            = [[File:Damián Torrero.jpg|145x200px|border]]
| leader5          = [[Mariah Contreras]]
| leader5          = [[Damián Torrero]]
| party5            = Socialist Republicans (Carloso)
| party5            = Synarchist Union (Carloso)
| alliance5        =  
| alliance5        =  
| leader_since5    = 2 March 2019
| leader_since5    = 13 June 2013
| leaders_seat5    = Madrigal 10th
| leaders_seat5    = TBD
| last_election5    = 30
| last_election5    = 23
| seats_before5    = 27
| seats_before5    = 24
| seats_needed5    =  
| seats_needed5    =  
| seats5            =  
| seats5            = 52
| seats_after5      =  
| seats_after5      =  
| seat_change5      =  
| seat_change5      = {{increase}} 29
| popular_vote5    =  
| popular_vote5    =  
| percentage5      =
| percentage5      =
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| before_election  = [[Cárlos Tobón]]
| before_election  = [[Cárlos Tobón]]
| before_party      = National Salvation (Carloso)
| before_party      = National Salvation (Carloso)
| posttitle        =  
| posttitle        = President
| after_election    =  
| after_election    = [[Cárlos Tobón]]
| after_party      =
| after_party      = National Salvation (Carloso)
}}
}}
{{Politics of Carloso}}
The '''2020 Carlosian general election''' took place on Friday, 11 November 2020. As with previous years, 858 of the 859 seats in the National Assembly were up for election. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran was automatically re-elected. The ruling National Salvation party won in a third consecutive electoral landslide, albeit with a reduced majority compared to 2015. The Socialist Republicans, led by Mariah Contreras, and the Democratic Party, led by Elon Básaran, both made significant gains. Support for the Conservative Party, traditionally Carloso's largest political party, collapsed to well below even its 2010 result, winning only 49 seats. The Synarchist Union also increased its number of seats, campaigning against vulnerable National Salvation candidates. The Communisty Party was wiped out amidst a wave of defections to the Socialist Republicans, and Green Alternative re-entered the National Assembly for the first time since its electoral wipeout in 2005. The number of independents increased slightly from 2015.
Led by President [[Cárlos Tobón]], National Salvation sought to win a third term in government since the [[Corrective Revolution (Carloso)|Corrective Revolution]]. The party campaigned heavily on its success in economic and social reforms. In foreign policy, Tobón championed Carloso's admission to the [[Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation]] (SACTO) and his opposition to globalism. Early in the campaign, it appeared that the results of the election would be similar to 2015, with the long-standing Conservative Party and Democratic Party making small gains. However, revelations that Raúl Figueroa, Deputy Leader of the Conservative Party, was being investigated by authorities for tax evasion and possession of illegal drugs led to a steady drop in support. Tobón was accused of being 'soft' on the [[CaBI19 pandemic]], and the Synarchist Union benefitted from backlash towards his decision to provide medical assistance to the city-state of [[Kesslerstaadt]]. In the final weeks of the campaign, support for the Socialist Republicans grew significantly as Mariah Contreras emphasised herself as the best person to challenge Tobón. At the same time, support for National Salvation rebounded as Tobón embarked on an aggressive spree of rallies across the country. Nevertheless, there were fears that the country would end up with a hung National Assembly. The disparate opposition parties in the National Assembly hoped to deprive National Salvation of another majority, but failed in this objective.


The '''next Carlosian general election''' will be held on Friday, 11 November 2020. 858 of the 859 seats in the National Assembly will be up for election. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, James R. Moran, will be automatically re-elected unless he chooses to retire. His constituency, Mostona, will also get one extra seat to make up for the loss in representation. [[Cárlos Tobón]] will seek a third term as [[President of Carloso|President of the Executive Council]] and, if successful, will be the longest-serving head of government in Carloso's republican history. National Assemblymen who are successful in the election will take their seats on 11 February 2021.
[[Cárlos Tobón|Tobón]] was re-elected to a third term as [[President of Carloso|President of the Executive Council]], becoming the longest-serving head of government in Carloso's republican history. With [[Jorge Spalderán]]'s decision to not seek a third term as Deputy President, [[Estebán Santander]] succeeded him. National Assemblymen who were successful in the election took their seats on 11 February 2021, forming the 44th National Assembly. Following the collapse in support for the Conservative Party, [[Ferdinand Casares]] immediately announced his resignation as leader. Orlin Almansar replaced him, and served as Senior Leader of the Oppositon for the remainder of the 43rd National Assembly. Upon the formation of the 44th National Assembly, Mariah Contreras succeeded Almansar and became the first woman to hold the role. As the leader of third-largest party, Elon Básaran remained Junior Leader of the Opposition.


==Background==
==Background==
Functioning as a broad coalition of the right, National Salvation's time in government has been mostly focused on reversing the period of social and economic liberalisation which occured between 2001 and 2011. It became the largest party in the National Assembly in the aftermath of the 2010 general election and preceding [[Corrective Revolution (Carloso)|Corrective Revolution]]. After securing a majority in the National Assembly at the 2015 general election, Tobón began to pursue a programme of tough social and administrative reforms, heavily regulating access to contraception, outlawing divorce and making the execution of an abortion a capital offence under Carlosian law. In foreign affairs, Carloso has shifted from membership of the [[International Freedom Coalition]] (IFC), to geopolitical neutrality, to membership of [[Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation]] from 2017 onwards. Tobón has actively pursued an 'anti-globalist' and 'anti-liberal' foreign policy since then. After Tobón backtracked on his decision to step down as party leader in 2019, opting to run for another term as President of the Executive Council, there was some talk amongst backbenchers of a potential leadership challenge. Tobón's overwhelming popularity amongst party members and voters was apparent, however, and any prospect of a challenge to his position within National Salvation rapidly evaporated.
Functioning as a broad coalition of the right, National Salvation's time in government has been mostly focused on reversing the period of social and economic liberalisation which occured between 2001 and 2011. It became the largest party in the National Assembly in the aftermath of the 2010 general election and preceding [[Corrective Revolution (Carloso)|Corrective Revolution]]. After securing a majority in the National Assembly at the 2015 general election, Tobón began to pursue a programme of tough social and administrative reforms, heavily regulating access to contraception, outlawing divorce and making the execution of an abortion a capital offence under Carlosian law. In foreign affairs, Carloso has shifted from membership of the [[International Freedom Coalition]] (IFC), to geopolitical neutrality, to membership of [[Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation]] from 2017 onwards. Tobón has actively pursued an 'anti-globalist' and 'anti-liberal' foreign policy since then. After Tobón backtracked on his decision to step down as party leader in 2019, opting to run for another term as President of the Executive Council, there was some talk amongst backbenchers of a potential leadership challenge. Tobón's overwhelming popularity amongst party members and voters was apparent, however, and any prospect of a challenge to his position within National Salvation rapidly evaporated.


Oppositon parties have struggled to eat away at National Salvation's popularity amidst constant infighting and organisational chaos. Left-leaning parties and aligned organisations have routinely protested in Carloso's major cities, accusing National Salvation of engaging in electoral intimidation. There have also been sporadic demonstrations against President Tobón's opposition to gay marraige, abortion and his election as President of the Executive Council. This has often manifested in the dissemination of unfounded conspirarcy theories by left-wing activists, including claims that the Nifonese government interfered in the 2015 general election on National Salvation's behalf. Attempts by the Conservative Party, Democratic Party and Socialist Republicans to form an alliance ahead of the 2017 provincial elections ended in failure. Since then, Democratic Party leader Elon Básaran had been negotiating an alliance between left-leaning parties such as the Socialist Republicans, Green Alternative, Communist Party and some independent National Assemblymen. In May 2020, Básaran suggested forming an electoral alliance called 'Republican Alternative', but this was rejected by Socialist Republican leader Mariah Contreras.
Oppositon parties have struggled to eat away at National Salvation's popularity amidst constant infighting and organisational chaos. Left-leaning parties and aligned organisations have routinely protested in Carloso's major cities, accusing National Salvation of engaging in electoral intimidation. There have also been sporadic demonstrations against President Tobón's opposition to gay marriage, abortion and his election as President of the Executive Council. This has often manifested in the dissemination of unfounded conspirarcy theories by left-wing activists, including claims that the Nifonese government interfered in the 2015 general election on National Salvation's behalf. Attempts by the Conservative Party, Democratic Party and Socialist Republicans to form an alliance ahead of the 2017 provincial elections ended in failure. Since then, Democratic Party leader Elon Básaran had been negotiating an alliance between left-leaning parties such as the Socialist Republicans, Green Alternative, Communist Party and some independent National Assemblymen. In May 2020, Básaran suggested forming an electoral alliance called 'Republican Alternative', but this was rejected by Socialist Republican leader Mariah Contreras.


==Electoral system==
==Electoral system==
Carloso is divided into 286 constituencies, each with three National Assemblymen each. Each seat approximately represents 420,000 people. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, James R. Moran, will be automatically re-elected. His constituency, [[Viruna's 8th National Assembly constituency]], will also get one extra seat to make up for the loss in representation during his tenure as Presiding Officer, bringing the total number of seats to 859. Due to this high representative-to-electorate ratio, it has been suggested to establish an upper house or double the size of the National Assembly. As with previous elections, the voting method used will be proportional representation with the single transferable vote (STV) and elimination transfers only. In this process, voters number candidates in order of preference. The ballot papers are counted continuously and the candidate with the lowest number of votes at the end of each count is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the other candidates according to the preferences of the voter. The process continues until the top three (or four) candidates are remaining and these then go forward to be elected National Assemblymen. Since its implementation in the 1955 election, the system has been regarded as being representative of the Carlosian electorate, giving a slight advantage to smaller parties. However, it also means majority governments in Carloso are somewhat uncommon, with the extraordinary exception of the National Salvation government since 2016.
Carloso is divided into 286 constituencies, each with three National Assemblymen each. Each seat approximately represents 420,000 people. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, will be automatically re-elected. His constituency, [[Viruna's 8th National Assembly constituency]], will also get one extra seat to make up for the loss in representation during his tenure as Presiding Officer, bringing the total number of seats to 859. Due to this high representative-to-electorate ratio, it has been suggested to establish an upper house or double the size of the National Assembly. As with previous elections, the voting method used will be proportional representation with the single transferable vote (STV) and elimination transfers only. In this process, voters number candidates in order of preference. The ballot papers are counted continuously and the candidate with the lowest number of votes at the end of each count is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the other candidates according to the preferences of the voter. The process continues until the top three (or four) candidates are remaining and these then go forward to be elected National Assemblymen. Since its implementation in the 1955 election, the system has been regarded as being representative of the Carlosian electorate, giving a slight advantage to smaller parties. However, it also means majority governments in Carloso are somewhat uncommon, with the extraordinary exception of the National Salvation government since 2016.


==Constituency changes==
==Constituency changes==
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|}
|}
</div>
</div>
Since 2011, National Salvation has been the largest party in the National Assembly. In 2016 it managed to obtain a majority, one of the largest in Carlosian electoral history. In 2018 National Salvation also won two by-elections, increasing its majority by two seats. Despite the party's consistent and overwhelming popularity in election results and opinion polls, it is unlikely that National Salvation will be able to increase its majority any further, and it's primary focus will be to loose as few seats as possible and retain command of the National Assembly. It intends to run 572 candidates in total. Should it maintain its majority, then it is almost certain Cárlos Tobón will be sworn in for a third term as President of the Executive Council. [[Estebán Santander]] is likely to become Deputy President, succeeding George Spalding. The party has campaigned on its successful economic reforms since 2010, roleback of social liberalisation, proactive and assertive foreign policy; inclusive of Carloso's membership of the [[Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation]] (SACTO) since 2017, and zealous opposition to communist and progressive elements.
Since 2011, National Salvation has been the largest party in the National Assembly. In 2016 it managed to obtain a majority, one of the largest in Carlosian electoral history. In 2018 National Salvation also won two by-elections, increasing its majority by two seats. Despite the party's consistent and overwhelming popularity in election results and opinion polls, it is unlikely that National Salvation will be able to increase its majority any further, and it's primary focus will be to loose as few seats as possible and retain command of the National Assembly. It intends to run 572 candidates in total. Should it maintain its majority, then it is almost certain Cárlos Tobón will be sworn in for a third term as President of the Executive Council. [[Estebán Santander]] is likely to become Deputy President, succeeding Jorge Spalderán. The party has campaigned on its successful economic reforms since 2010, roleback of social liberalisation, proactive and assertive foreign policy; inclusive of Carloso's membership of the [[Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation]] (SACTO) since 2017, and zealous opposition to communist and progressive elements.
 
Similiar to 2010 and 2015, Tobón has embarked on a campaign of mass rallies across Carloso.


===Conservative Party===
===Conservative Party===
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===Synarchist Union===
===Synarchist Union===
===Communist Party===
===Communist Party===
===Green Alternative===
<div style="float:right;">
{|class="wikitable sortable"
|+
| colspan=7| [[File:Green Party Carloso.png|center|300px]]
|-
!colspan=4 class="unsortable"| Party
!class="unsortable"|Leader
!class="unsortable"|Deputy Leader
!class="unsortable"|Campaign slogan
|-
| style="background:#1B4D3E;"|
| colspan=3| Green Alternative
| Benjamín Lacasa
| TBD
| Vote green.<br>(''TBD'')
|-
|}
</div>
===Other===
===Other===


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| image1 = Flickr - europeanpeoplesparty - EPP Congress Bonn (630) (cropped).jpg
| image1 = Flickr - europeanpeoplesparty - EPP Congress Bonn (630) (cropped).jpg
| image2 = Duarte Freitas PSD Acores 2015.png
| image2 = Duarte Freitas PSD Acores 2015.png
| footer = Outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly James R. Moran (left), and Officer pro tempore Tomás Ocanas.
| footer = Outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly Jorge Moran (left), and Officer pro tempore Tomás Ocanas.
}}
}}
The election campaign formally began on 15 August 2020, when the first debate between the parties with seats in the National Assembly was aired lived on RTC 1. On 17 August outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, James R. Moran, stated he would contest the election and will therefore be automatically returned, presuming he is still in office on 11 November.
The election campaign formally began on 15 August 2020, when the first debate between the parties with seats in the National Assembly was aired lived on RTC 1. On 17 August outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, stated he would contest the election and will therefore be automatically returned, presuming he is still in office on 11 November.


===September===
===September===
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|
|
|- style="background:#EAFFEA;"
|- style="background:#EAFFEA;"
| RTC/ACU
| RTC News/ACU
| 11 November 2020
| 11 November 2020
| TBA
| TBA
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| colspan="12" | '''Moratorium on opinion polling'''
| colspan="12" | '''Moratorium on opinion polling'''
|-
|-
| TBA
| RTC News/Melgar Analytics
| 27 October 2020
| 27 October 2020
| TBA
| 1,458
| style="background:#C0DBFC" | '''TBA'''
| style="background:#C0DBFC" | '''51.1'''
|
| 7.9
|
| 13.7
|
| 16.4
|  
| 5.2
|
| 0.1
|
| 2.2
|
| 3.4
| style="background:#010720; color:white;"| '''TBA'''
| style="background:#010720; color:white;"| '''34.7'''
|-
|-
| TBA
| TBA
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| 29 September 2020
| 29 September 2020
| TBA
| TBA
| style="background:#C0DBFC" | '''TBA'''
| style="background:#C0DBFC" | '''49.8'''
|
| 8.1
|
| 13.7
|
| 16.4
|  
| 5.7
|
| 0.1
|
| 2.4
|
| 3.8
| style="background:#010720; color:white;"| '''TBA'''
| style="background:#010720; color:white;"| '''33.4'''
|-
|-
| TBA
| TBA
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==Debates==
==Debates==
===English-language===
===English-language===
{| class="wikitable" style="font-size:98%; text-align:center;"
|-
! colspan="12"| 2020 Carlosian general election debates
|-
!style="white-space:nowrap;" rowspan="3"| {{small|Date}}|| rowspan="3"| {{small|Broadcaster}} || rowspan="3"| {{small|Moderator(s)}} ||scope="col" colspan="6| {{small|Participants&nbsp;—&nbsp;}} {{Colors|black|#90ff90|&nbsp;Name&nbsp;}} {{small|Participant &nbsp;}} {{Colors|black|#ff9090|&nbsp;N&nbsp;}} {{small|Party not invited}} || rowspan="3"| {{small|Notes}}
|-
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|[[National Salvation (Carloso)|NS]]}}
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|{{nowrap|[[Conservative Party (Carloso)|Con]]}}}}
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|[[Democratic Party (Carloso)|Dem]]}}
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|[[Socialist Republicans (Carloso)|SR]]}}
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|{{nowrap|[[Synarchist Union (Carloso)|SU]]}}}}
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|[[Communist Party (Carloso)|Com]]}}
|-
! style="background:#010720;"|
! style="background:#00326B;"|
! style="background:#E3BC00;"|
! style="background:#57000E;"|
! style="background:#000000;"|
! style="background:#8F0000;"|
|-
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| 6 October
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| RTC
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Tobón}}'''}}
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Casares}}'''}}
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Básaran}}'''}}
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Contreras}}'''}}
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Torrero}}'''}}
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Batias}}'''}}
| The first debate was held at RTC's national studios in Madrigal. Casares and Batias were criticised for repeatedly interrupting President Tobón
|-
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Tobón}}'''}}
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Casares}}'''}}
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Básaran}}'''}}
|{{No|'''{{small|Contreras}}'''}}
|{{No|'''{{small|Torrero}}'''}}
|{{No|'''{{small|Batias}}'''}}
| Held on the campus of Arteida Circuit University, Secano with the leaders of the three largest parties in the National Assembly present.
|-
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| 5 November
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Tobón}}'''}}
|{{No|'''{{small|Casares}}'''}}
|{{No|'''{{small|Básaran}}'''}}
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Contreras}}'''}}
|{{No|'''{{small|Torrero}}'''}}
|{{No|'''{{small|Batias}}'''}}
| National Salvation and the Socialist Republicans agreed to a debate between Tobón and Contreras. It is to be held on the campus of Ebon Metropolitan University.
|-
|}


===Carlosian-language===
===Carlosian-language===
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|572
|572
|507
|507
|509
|510
|{{Composition bar|0|859|#010720|background-color=|per=1}}
|{{Composition bar|0|859|#010720|background-color=|per=1}}
|
|
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|{{Composition bar|0|859|#1B4D3E|background-color=|per=1}}
|{{Composition bar|0|859|#1B4D3E|background-color=|per=1}}
|
|
|-
!style="background-color: #000000" |
|Presiding Officer
| style="text-align:left;" data-sort-value="Moran"|James R. Moran
|N/A
|N/A
|N/A
|1
|1
|1
|{{Composition bar|1|859|#000000|background-color=|per=1}}
|0
|}
|}


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|rowspan=2|Party
|rowspan=2|Party
|'''[[National Salvation (Carloso)|National Salvation]]'''
|'''[[National Salvation (Carloso)|National Salvation]]'''
|'''[[Conservative Party (Carloso)|Conservative Party]]'''
|'''[[Socialist Republicans (Carloso)|Socialist Republicans]]'''
|'''[[Democratic Party (Carloso)|Democratic Party]]'''
|'''[[Democratic Party (Carloso)|Democratic Party]]'''
|'''[[Socialist Republicans (Carloso)|Socialist Republicans]]'''
|'''[[Synarchist Union (Carloso)|Synarchist Union]]'''
|'''[[Synarchist Union (Carloso)|Synarchist Union]]'''
|'''[[Communist Party (Carloso)|Communist Party]]'''
|'''[[Conservative Party (Carloso)|Conservative Party]]'''
|'''[[Green Alternative (Carloso)|Green Alternative]]'''
|'''[[Green Alternative (Carloso)|Green Alternative]]'''
|'''{{wpl|Independent politician|Independent}}'''
|-  
|-  
|  style="background:#010720;"|
|  style="background:#010720;"|
|  style="background:#00326B;"|
|  style="background:#57000E;"|
|  style="background:#E3BC00;"|
|  style="background:#E3BC00;"|
|  style="background:#57000E;"|
|  style="background:#000000;"|
|  style="background:#000000;"|
|  style="background:#8F0000;"|
|  style="background:#00326B;"|
|  style="background:#1B4D3E;"|
|  style="background:#1B4D3E;"|
|  style="background:{{Independent politician/meta/color}};"|
|-
|-
|Leader
|Leader
|<small>[[Cárlos Tobón]]</small>
|<small>[[Cárlos Tobón]]</small>
|<small>[[Ferdinand Casares]]</small>
|<small>[[Mariah Contreras]]</small>
|<small>[[Elon Básaran]]</small>
|<small>[[Elon Básaran]]</small>
|<small>[[Mariah Contreras]]</small>
|<small>[[Damián Torrero]]</small>
|<small>[[Damián Torrero]]</small>
|<small>[[Tómas Batias]]</small>
|<small>[[Ferdinand Casares]]</small>
|<small>[[Benjamín Lacasa]]</small>
|<small>[[Benjamín Lacasa]]</small>
|<small>N/A</small>
|-
|-
|rowspan=2|1st preference<br />votes
|rowspan=2|1st preference<br />votes
Line 1,024: Line 1,092:
|-
|-
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||010720}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||010720}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||00326B}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||57000E}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||E3BC00}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||E3BC00}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||57000E}}}}
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||000000}}}}  
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|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||DDDDDD}}}}
|-
|-
|rowspan=2|Seats
|rowspan=2|Seats
|TBA
|446 (51.92%)
|TBA
|149 (17.35%)
|TBA
|115 (13.39%)
|TBA
|52 (6.05%)
|TBA
|49 (5.7%)
|TBA
|18 (2.1%)
|TBA
|30 (3.49%)
|-
|-
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||010720}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|51.92||010720}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||00326B}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|17.35||57000E}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||E3BC00}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|13.39||E3BC00}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||57000E}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|6.05||000000}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||000000}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|5.7||00326B}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||8F0000}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|2.1||1B4D3E}}}}  
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||1B4D3E}}}}
|{{center|{{percentage bar|3.49||DDDDDD}}}}
|}
|}
==Presiding Officer election==
The first order of business for the new National Assembly will be electing a presiding officer. James R. Moran will continue to be Presiding Officer unless another National Assemlbyman is elected to the position.
==Presidential election==
{{main|2021 Carlosian presidential election}}
{{Infobox election
|election_name      = 2021 Carlosian presidential election
|country            = Carloso
|type              = presidential
|image_size        = 200x200px
|ongoing            = no
|previous_election  = 2016 Carlosian presidential election
|previous_year      = 2016
|next_election      = 2026 Carlosian presidential election
|next_year          = 2026
|election_date      = 11 Feburary 2021
|image1            = 37th Carlosian President Portrait.png
|nominee1          = [[Cárlos Tobón]]
|running_mate1      = [[Estebán Santander]]
|party1            = National Salvation (Carloso)
|electoral_vote1    = TBD
|percentage1        = TBD
|title              = President
|before_election    = [[Cárlos Tobón]]
|before_party      = [[National Salvation (Carloso)|National Salvation]]
|after_election    =
|after_party        =
}}
The new President of the Executive Council of Carloso will be elected during a special sitting of the National Assembly on 11 Februrary 2021.


{{Kali Yuga timeline}}
{{Kali Yuga timeline}}
[[Category:Carloso]]
[[Category:Carloso]]

Latest revision as of 22:13, 5 September 2023

2020 Carlosian general election
← 2015 11 November 2020 2025 →
858 of 859 seats in the National Assembly
430 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout77.4% Increase 0.9 pp
  First party Second party
  37th Carlosian President Portrait.png Sáenz de Santamaría se reúne con Inés Arrimadas, portavoz de Ciudadanos en el Parlamento de Cataluña (cropped).jpg
Leader Cárlos Tobón Mariah Contreras
Party National Salvation Socialist Republican
Leader since 7 September 2010 2 March 2019
Leader's seat Madrigal 21st Madrigal 10th
Last election 507 30
Seats before 510 27
Seats won 446 149
Seat change Decrease 64 Increase 122
  Third party Fourth party
  Kris Peeters (2015).jpg Damián Torrero.jpg
Leader Elon Básaran Damián Torrero
Party Democratic Synarchist
Leader since 27 October 2014 13 June 2013
Leader's seat Zararcia 6th TBD
Last election 68 23
Seats before 70 24
Seats won 115 52
Seat change Increase 45 Increase 29
2020 Carlosian election results.png
President before election

Cárlos Tobón
National Salvation

President

Cárlos Tobón
National Salvation

Carloso
Coat of arms of Carloso.png
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
the Federal Republic of Carloso
Constitution
Rectifications
Executive
Legislature
National Assembly
(44th National Assembly)
Judiciary
  • Supreme Court
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Administrative geography
Provinces
Elections


General Elections


Provincial Elections


Circuit Elections


District Elections


Ward Elections


Plebiscites
  • Constitutional Rectifications (1
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  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13
  • 14
  • 15
  • 16
  • 17
  • 18
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  • 20)
  • Advisory Plebiscites (1
  • 2
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Overseas Territories
Foreign relations
  • Foreign policy
Related topics
  • Culture
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  • History

The 2020 Carlosian general election took place on Friday, 11 November 2020. As with previous years, 858 of the 859 seats in the National Assembly were up for election. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran was automatically re-elected. The ruling National Salvation party won in a third consecutive electoral landslide, albeit with a reduced majority compared to 2015. The Socialist Republicans, led by Mariah Contreras, and the Democratic Party, led by Elon Básaran, both made significant gains. Support for the Conservative Party, traditionally Carloso's largest political party, collapsed to well below even its 2010 result, winning only 49 seats. The Synarchist Union also increased its number of seats, campaigning against vulnerable National Salvation candidates. The Communisty Party was wiped out amidst a wave of defections to the Socialist Republicans, and Green Alternative re-entered the National Assembly for the first time since its electoral wipeout in 2005. The number of independents increased slightly from 2015.

Led by President Cárlos Tobón, National Salvation sought to win a third term in government since the Corrective Revolution. The party campaigned heavily on its success in economic and social reforms. In foreign policy, Tobón championed Carloso's admission to the Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation (SACTO) and his opposition to globalism. Early in the campaign, it appeared that the results of the election would be similar to 2015, with the long-standing Conservative Party and Democratic Party making small gains. However, revelations that Raúl Figueroa, Deputy Leader of the Conservative Party, was being investigated by authorities for tax evasion and possession of illegal drugs led to a steady drop in support. Tobón was accused of being 'soft' on the CaBI19 pandemic, and the Synarchist Union benefitted from backlash towards his decision to provide medical assistance to the city-state of Kesslerstaadt. In the final weeks of the campaign, support for the Socialist Republicans grew significantly as Mariah Contreras emphasised herself as the best person to challenge Tobón. At the same time, support for National Salvation rebounded as Tobón embarked on an aggressive spree of rallies across the country. Nevertheless, there were fears that the country would end up with a hung National Assembly. The disparate opposition parties in the National Assembly hoped to deprive National Salvation of another majority, but failed in this objective.

Tobón was re-elected to a third term as President of the Executive Council, becoming the longest-serving head of government in Carloso's republican history. With Jorge Spalderán's decision to not seek a third term as Deputy President, Estebán Santander succeeded him. National Assemblymen who were successful in the election took their seats on 11 February 2021, forming the 44th National Assembly. Following the collapse in support for the Conservative Party, Ferdinand Casares immediately announced his resignation as leader. Orlin Almansar replaced him, and served as Senior Leader of the Oppositon for the remainder of the 43rd National Assembly. Upon the formation of the 44th National Assembly, Mariah Contreras succeeded Almansar and became the first woman to hold the role. As the leader of third-largest party, Elon Básaran remained Junior Leader of the Opposition.

Background

Functioning as a broad coalition of the right, National Salvation's time in government has been mostly focused on reversing the period of social and economic liberalisation which occured between 2001 and 2011. It became the largest party in the National Assembly in the aftermath of the 2010 general election and preceding Corrective Revolution. After securing a majority in the National Assembly at the 2015 general election, Tobón began to pursue a programme of tough social and administrative reforms, heavily regulating access to contraception, outlawing divorce and making the execution of an abortion a capital offence under Carlosian law. In foreign affairs, Carloso has shifted from membership of the International Freedom Coalition (IFC), to geopolitical neutrality, to membership of Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation from 2017 onwards. Tobón has actively pursued an 'anti-globalist' and 'anti-liberal' foreign policy since then. After Tobón backtracked on his decision to step down as party leader in 2019, opting to run for another term as President of the Executive Council, there was some talk amongst backbenchers of a potential leadership challenge. Tobón's overwhelming popularity amongst party members and voters was apparent, however, and any prospect of a challenge to his position within National Salvation rapidly evaporated.

Oppositon parties have struggled to eat away at National Salvation's popularity amidst constant infighting and organisational chaos. Left-leaning parties and aligned organisations have routinely protested in Carloso's major cities, accusing National Salvation of engaging in electoral intimidation. There have also been sporadic demonstrations against President Tobón's opposition to gay marriage, abortion and his election as President of the Executive Council. This has often manifested in the dissemination of unfounded conspirarcy theories by left-wing activists, including claims that the Nifonese government interfered in the 2015 general election on National Salvation's behalf. Attempts by the Conservative Party, Democratic Party and Socialist Republicans to form an alliance ahead of the 2017 provincial elections ended in failure. Since then, Democratic Party leader Elon Básaran had been negotiating an alliance between left-leaning parties such as the Socialist Republicans, Green Alternative, Communist Party and some independent National Assemblymen. In May 2020, Básaran suggested forming an electoral alliance called 'Republican Alternative', but this was rejected by Socialist Republican leader Mariah Contreras.

Electoral system

Carloso is divided into 286 constituencies, each with three National Assemblymen each. Each seat approximately represents 420,000 people. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, will be automatically re-elected. His constituency, Viruna's 8th National Assembly constituency, will also get one extra seat to make up for the loss in representation during his tenure as Presiding Officer, bringing the total number of seats to 859. Due to this high representative-to-electorate ratio, it has been suggested to establish an upper house or double the size of the National Assembly. As with previous elections, the voting method used will be proportional representation with the single transferable vote (STV) and elimination transfers only. In this process, voters number candidates in order of preference. The ballot papers are counted continuously and the candidate with the lowest number of votes at the end of each count is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the other candidates according to the preferences of the voter. The process continues until the top three (or four) candidates are remaining and these then go forward to be elected National Assemblymen. Since its implementation in the 1955 election, the system has been regarded as being representative of the Carlosian electorate, giving a slight advantage to smaller parties. However, it also means majority governments in Carloso are somewhat uncommon, with the extraordinary exception of the National Salvation government since 2016.

Constituency changes

The constituencies will be the same as they were at the 2015 general election.

Parties and candidates

National Salvation

Logo of National Salvation.png
Party Leader Deputy Leader Campaign slogan
National Salvation Cárlos Tobón Estebán Santander Keep it Right.
(Menténha a Direcha)

Since 2011, National Salvation has been the largest party in the National Assembly. In 2016 it managed to obtain a majority, one of the largest in Carlosian electoral history. In 2018 National Salvation also won two by-elections, increasing its majority by two seats. Despite the party's consistent and overwhelming popularity in election results and opinion polls, it is unlikely that National Salvation will be able to increase its majority any further, and it's primary focus will be to loose as few seats as possible and retain command of the National Assembly. It intends to run 572 candidates in total. Should it maintain its majority, then it is almost certain Cárlos Tobón will be sworn in for a third term as President of the Executive Council. Estebán Santander is likely to become Deputy President, succeeding Jorge Spalderán. The party has campaigned on its successful economic reforms since 2010, roleback of social liberalisation, proactive and assertive foreign policy; inclusive of Carloso's membership of the Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation (SACTO) since 2017, and zealous opposition to communist and progressive elements.

Similiar to 2010 and 2015, Tobón has embarked on a campaign of mass rallies across Carloso.

Conservative Party

Conservative Party of Carloso logo.png
Party Leader Deputy Leader Campaign slogan
Conservative Party Ferdinand Casares Raúl Figueroa Back to Normal.
(TBD)

The Conservative Party is the second largest political party in Carloso. The party has struggled to distinguish itself from National Salvation, which has replaced the Conservatives as the major catch-all party of right-wing politics in the country. Despite recovering some seats at the 2015 general election, mainly at the expense of the embattled Socialist Republicans and Democratic Party; party membership has declined. Party leader Ferdinand Casares was chosen as a presidential candidate at the Conservative Electoral Convention on 28 July 2020.

Democratic Party

Socialist Republicans

Socialist Republicans logo.png
Party Leader Deputy Leader Campaign slogan
Socialist Republicans Mariah Contreras TBD Modern Socialism. Modern Carloso.
(TBD)

Mariah Contreras has been a leader of the Socialist Republicans since 2 March 2019 and has steered the party in a more left-wing, populist direction. The party has sought to convert working class voters who have supported National Salvation in recent years. It has also benefitted from an influx of members and supporters from the Communist Party.

Synarchist Union

Communist Party

Green Alternative

Green Party Carloso.png
Party Leader Deputy Leader Campaign slogan
Green Alternative Benjamín Lacasa TBD Vote green.
(TBD)

Other

Campaign

August

Outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly Jorge Moran (left), and Officer pro tempore Tomás Ocanas.

The election campaign formally began on 15 August 2020, when the first debate between the parties with seats in the National Assembly was aired lived on RTC 1. On 17 August outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, stated he would contest the election and will therefore be automatically returned, presuming he is still in office on 11 November.

September

The 2020 National Salvation Electoral Convention is scheduled to begin on 1 September and will run until 4 September, where President Tobón will almost certainly be renominated as the party's candidate for President of the Executive Council. The format is expected to be substantially different from the 2015 convention,

October

November

Endorsements

Involvement of other countries

Politicians not standing

Opinion polling

Under present regulations, polling agencies are required to include all political parties which have obtained more than 0.2% of the first-preference vote as of the last general election, provided that party stood in at least 283 constituencies in 18 of Carloso's 24 provinces. Regionalist parties are excluded from national polls. Green Alternative obtained just over 0.2% of the vote in the last general election, and so is always included in national surveys.

2020

Graph of opinion polls conducted since 1 January 2020.
Polling firm Last day of polling Sample size National Salvation Conservative Party Democratic Party Socialist Republicans Synarchist Union Communist Party Green Alternative Other Lead
2020 general election 11 November 2020 –
RTC News/ACU 11 November 2020 TBA
Madrigal Times/MMU 11 November 2020 TBA
Moratorium on opinion polling
RTC News/Melgar Analytics 27 October 2020 1,458 51.1 7.9 13.7 16.4 5.2 0.1 2.2 3.4 34.7
TBA 20 October 2020 TBA TBA TBA
TBA 13 October 2020 TBA TBA TBA
TBA 6 October 2020 TBA TBA TBA
TBA 29 September 2020 TBA 49.8 8.1 13.7 16.4 5.7 0.1 2.4 3.8 33.4
TBA 22 September 2020 TBA 50.1 8.2 13.2 16.1 5.8 0.2 2.6 3.8 34.0
TBA 15 September 2020 TBA 49.9 8.7 13.9 15.6 6.1 0.2 2.7 2.9 34.3
TBA 8 September 2020 TBA 50.2 9.3 13.4 15.3 5.9 0.1 2.2 3.6 34.9
TBA 1 September 2020 TBA 49.5 9.6 13.8 14.7 6.0 0.2 2.7 3.5 34.8
TBA 25 August 2020 TBA 48.2 9.8 14.1 15.2 7.2 0.1 2.3 3.1 33.0
TBA 18 August 2020 TBA 50.0 8.5 13.7 15.3 6.0 0.1 2.4 4.0 34.7
TBA 11 August 2020 TBA 49.6 9.1 14.9 14.3 5.7 0.2 2.1 4.1 34.7
TBA 4 August 2020 TBA 48.2 10.5 15.1 14.2 5.6 0.3 1.9 4.2 33.1
TBA 28 July 2020 TBA TBA TBA
TBA 21 July 2020 TBA TBA TBA
TBA 14 July 2020 TBA TBA TBA
TBA 7 July 2020 TBA TBA TBA
TBA 30 June 2020 TBA 46.1 TBA
TBA 23 June 2020 TBA 45.7 TBA
TBA 16 June 2020 TBA 45.9 TBA
TBA 9 June 2020 TBA 46.1 TBA
TBA 2 June 2020 TBA 47.1 TBA
TBA 26 May 2020 TBA 47.3 TBA
TBA 19 May 2020 TBA 46.9 TBA
TBA 12 May 2020 TBA 46.6 TBA
TBA 5 May 2020 TBA 46.8 TBA
TBA 28 April 2020 TBA 47.2 TBA
TBA 21 April 2020 TBA 47.1 TBA
TBA 14 April 2020 TBA 46.7 TBA
TBA 7 April 2020 TBA 46.3 TBA
TBA 31 March 2020 TBA 46.6 TBA
TBA 24 March 2020 TBA 46.7 TBA
TBA 17 March 2020 TBA 45.6 TBA
TBA 10 March 2020 TBA 50.2 TBA
TBA 3 March 2020 TBA 51.3 8.6 5.1 TBA
TBA 25 February 2020 TBA 51.5 8.9 3.8 TBA
TBA 18 February 2020 TBA 51.8 8.8 4.2 TBA
TBA 11 February 2020 TBA 52.1 9 2.9 TBA
TBA 4 February 2020 TBA 53.2 8.8 1.7 TBA
TBA 28 January 2020 TBA 51.8 17.2 8.5 1.3 TBA
TBA 21 January 2020 TBA 52.5 19.3 14.6 8.4 1.1 0.2 2.3 1.6 32.1
TBA 14 January 2020 TBA 55.3 20.4 11.1 7.8 0.9 0.4 2.2 1.9 34.9
TBA 7 January 2020 TBA 54.7 19.9 11.4 8.2 1.1 0.4 2.1 2.2 34.8
2015 general election 11 November 2015 – 57.8 19.7 8.1 3.3 3.1 2.1 0.2 5.7 38.1

2019

Debates

English-language

2020 Carlosian general election debates
Date Broadcaster Moderator(s) Participants —   Name  Participant    N  Party not invited Notes
NS Con Dem SR SU Com
6 October RTC TBA Tobón Casares Básaran Contreras Torrero Batias The first debate was held at RTC's national studios in Madrigal. Casares and Batias were criticised for repeatedly interrupting President Tobón
TBA TBA TBA Tobón Casares Básaran Contreras Torrero Batias Held on the campus of Arteida Circuit University, Secano with the leaders of the three largest parties in the National Assembly present.
5 November TBA TBA Tobón Casares Básaran Contreras Torrero Batias National Salvation and the Socialist Republicans agreed to a debate between Tobón and Contreras. It is to be held on the campus of Ebon Metropolitan University.

Carlosian-language

Results

Carlosian general election – 11 November 2020
Façade du British Museum.svg
Party Leader First-preference votes Seats
Votes % FPv Swing (pp) Cand. 2015 Out. Elected
2020 		Change
National Salvation Cárlos Tobón 572 507 510
0 / 859 (0%)
Conservative Party Ferdinand Casares TBD 183 181
0 / 859 (0%)
Democratic Party Elon Básaran TBD 68 70
0 / 859 (0%)
Socialist Republicans Mariah Contreras TBD 30 27
0 / 859 (0%)
Synarchist Union Damián Torrero TBD 24 23
0 / 859 (0%)
Communist Party Tómas Batias TBD 18 14
0 / 859 (0%)
Green Alternative Benjamin Amaral TBD 0 0
0 / 859 (0%)


Party National Salvation Socialist Republicans Democratic Party Synarchist Union Conservative Party Green Alternative Independent
Leader Cárlos Tobón Mariah Contreras Elon Básaran Damián Torrero Ferdinand Casares Benjamín Lacasa N/A
1st preference
votes 		TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA
Seats 446 (51.92%) 149 (17.35%) 115 (13.39%) 52 (6.05%) 49 (5.7%) 18 (2.1%) 30 (3.49%)
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