2020 Carlosian general election: Difference between revisions
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{{Region icon MusgorociaSC}} | {{Region icon MusgorociaSC}} | ||
{{Infobox election | {{Infobox election | ||
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| opinion_polls = 2020 Carlosian general election#Opinion polling | | opinion_polls = 2020 Carlosian general election#Opinion polling | ||
| registered = | | registered = | ||
| turnout = | | turnout = 77.4% {{increase}} 0.9 {{wpl|percentage point|pp}} | ||
| votes_counted = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign--> | | votes_counted = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign--> | ||
| reporting = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign--> | | reporting = <!-- Use ONE out of votes_counted, reporting or declared, do not include percentage (%) sign--> | ||
| Line 39: | Line 38: | ||
| leaders_seat1 = Madrigal 21st | | leaders_seat1 = Madrigal 21st | ||
| last_election1 = 507 | | last_election1 = 507 | ||
| seats_before1 = | | seats_before1 = 510 | ||
| seats_needed1 = 0 | | seats_needed1 = 0 | ||
| seats1 = | | seats1 = '''446''' | ||
| seats_after1 = | | seats_after1 = | ||
| seat_change1 = | | seat_change1 = {{decrease}} 64 | ||
| popular_vote1 = | | popular_vote1 = | ||
| percentage1 = | | percentage1 = | ||
| swing1 = | | swing1 = | ||
<!-- | <!-- Socialist Republicans --> | ||
| image2 = [[File: | | image2 = [[File:Sáenz de Santamaría se reúne con Inés Arrimadas, portavoz de Ciudadanos en el Parlamento de Cataluña (cropped).jpg|145x200px|border]] | ||
| leader2 = [[ | | leader2 = [[Mariah Contreras]] | ||
| party2 = | | party2 = Socialist Republicans (Carloso) | ||
| alliance2 = | | alliance2 = | ||
| leader_since2 = | | leader_since2 = 2 March 2019 | ||
| leaders_seat2 = | | leaders_seat2 = Madrigal 10th | ||
| last_election2 = | | last_election2 = 30 | ||
| seats_before2 = | | seats_before2 = 27 | ||
| seats_needed2 = | | seats_needed2 = | ||
| seats2 = | | seats2 = 149 | ||
| seats_after2 = | | seats_after2 = | ||
| seat_change2 = | | seat_change2 = {{increase}} 122 | ||
| popular_vote2 = | | popular_vote2 = | ||
| percentage2 = | | percentage2 = | ||
| swing2 = | | swing2 = | ||
<!-- Democratic --> | <!-- Democratic --> | ||
| image4 = [[File:Kris | | image4 = [[File:Kris Peeters (2015).jpg|145x200px|border]] | ||
| leader4 = Elon Básaran | | leader4 = Elon Básaran | ||
| party4 = Democratic Party (Carloso) | | party4 = Democratic Party (Carloso) | ||
| Line 73: | Line 72: | ||
| seats_before4 = 70 | | seats_before4 = 70 | ||
| seats_needed4 = | | seats_needed4 = | ||
| seats4 = | | seats4 = 115 | ||
| seats_after4 = | | seats_after4 = | ||
| seat_change4 = | | seat_change4 = {{increase}} 45 | ||
| popular_vote4 = | | popular_vote4 = | ||
| percentage4 = | | percentage4 = | ||
| swing4 = | | swing4 = | ||
<!-- | <!-- Synarchist Union --> | ||
| image5 = [[File: | | image5 = [[File:Damián Torrero.jpg|145x200px|border]] | ||
| leader5 = [[ | | leader5 = [[Damián Torrero]] | ||
| party5 = | | party5 = Synarchist Union (Carloso) | ||
| alliance5 = | | alliance5 = | ||
| leader_since5 = | | leader_since5 = 13 June 2013 | ||
| leaders_seat5 = | | leaders_seat5 = TBD | ||
| last_election5 = | | last_election5 = 23 | ||
| seats_before5 = | | seats_before5 = 24 | ||
| seats_needed5 = | | seats_needed5 = | ||
| seats5 = | | seats5 = 52 | ||
| seats_after5 = | | seats_after5 = | ||
| seat_change5 = | | seat_change5 = {{increase}} 29 | ||
| popular_vote5 = | | popular_vote5 = | ||
| percentage5 = | | percentage5 = | ||
| Line 105: | Line 104: | ||
| before_election = [[Cárlos Tobón]] | | before_election = [[Cárlos Tobón]] | ||
| before_party = National Salvation (Carloso) | | before_party = National Salvation (Carloso) | ||
| posttitle = | | posttitle = President | ||
| after_election = | | after_election = [[Cárlos Tobón]] | ||
| after_party = | | after_party = National Salvation (Carloso) | ||
}} | }} | ||
{{Politics of Carloso}} | |||
The '''2020 Carlosian general election''' took place on Friday, 11 November 2020. As with previous years, 858 of the 859 seats in the National Assembly were up for election. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran was automatically re-elected. The ruling National Salvation party won in a third consecutive electoral landslide, albeit with a reduced majority compared to 2015. The Socialist Republicans, led by Mariah Contreras, and the Democratic Party, led by Elon Básaran, both made significant gains. Support for the Conservative Party, traditionally Carloso's largest political party, collapsed to well below even its 2010 result, winning only 49 seats. The Synarchist Union also increased its number of seats, campaigning against vulnerable National Salvation candidates. The Communisty Party was wiped out amidst a wave of defections to the Socialist Republicans, and Green Alternative re-entered the National Assembly for the first time since its electoral wipeout in 2005. The number of independents increased slightly from 2015. | |||
Led by President [[Cárlos Tobón]], National Salvation sought to win a third term in government since the [[Corrective Revolution (Carloso)|Corrective Revolution]]. The party campaigned heavily on its success in economic and social reforms. In foreign policy, Tobón championed Carloso's admission to the [[Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation]] (SACTO) and his opposition to globalism. Early in the campaign, it appeared that the results of the election would be similar to 2015, with the long-standing Conservative Party and Democratic Party making small gains. However, revelations that Raúl Figueroa, Deputy Leader of the Conservative Party, was being investigated by authorities for tax evasion and possession of illegal drugs led to a steady drop in support. Tobón was accused of being 'soft' on the [[CaBI19 pandemic]], and the Synarchist Union benefitted from backlash towards his decision to provide medical assistance to the city-state of [[Kesslerstaadt]]. In the final weeks of the campaign, support for the Socialist Republicans grew significantly as Mariah Contreras emphasised herself as the best person to challenge Tobón. At the same time, support for National Salvation rebounded as Tobón embarked on an aggressive spree of rallies across the country. Nevertheless, there were fears that the country would end up with a hung National Assembly. The disparate opposition parties in the National Assembly hoped to deprive National Salvation of another majority, but failed in this objective. | |||
[[Cárlos Tobón|Tobón]] was re-elected to a third term as [[President of Carloso|President of the Executive Council]], becoming the longest-serving head of government in Carloso's republican history. With [[Jorge Spalderán]]'s decision to not seek a third term as Deputy President, [[Estebán Santander]] succeeded him. National Assemblymen who were successful in the election took their seats on 11 February 2021, forming the 44th National Assembly. Following the collapse in support for the Conservative Party, [[Ferdinand Casares]] immediately announced his resignation as leader. Orlin Almansar replaced him, and served as Senior Leader of the Oppositon for the remainder of the 43rd National Assembly. Upon the formation of the 44th National Assembly, Mariah Contreras succeeded Almansar and became the first woman to hold the role. As the leader of third-largest party, Elon Básaran remained Junior Leader of the Opposition. | |||
==Background== | ==Background== | ||
Functioning as a broad coalition of the right, National Salvation's time in government has been mostly focused on reversing the period of social and economic liberalisation which occured between 2001 and 2011. It became the largest party in the National Assembly in the aftermath of the 2010 general election and preceding [[Corrective Revolution (Carloso)|Corrective Revolution]]. After securing a majority in the National Assembly at the 2015 general election, Tobón began to pursue a programme of tough social and administrative reforms, heavily regulating access to contraception, outlawing divorce and making the execution of an abortion a capital offence under Carlosian law. In foreign affairs, Carloso has shifted from membership of the [[International Freedom Coalition]] (IFC), to geopolitical neutrality, to membership of [[Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation]] from 2017 onwards. Tobón has actively pursued an 'anti-globalist' and 'anti-liberal' foreign policy since then. After Tobón backtracked on his decision to step down as party leader in 2019, opting to run for another term as President of the Executive Council, there was some talk amongst backbenchers of a potential leadership challenge. Tobón's overwhelming popularity amongst party members and voters was apparent, however, and any prospect of a challenge to his position within National Salvation rapidly evaporated. | Functioning as a broad coalition of the right, National Salvation's time in government has been mostly focused on reversing the period of social and economic liberalisation which occured between 2001 and 2011. It became the largest party in the National Assembly in the aftermath of the 2010 general election and preceding [[Corrective Revolution (Carloso)|Corrective Revolution]]. After securing a majority in the National Assembly at the 2015 general election, Tobón began to pursue a programme of tough social and administrative reforms, heavily regulating access to contraception, outlawing divorce and making the execution of an abortion a capital offence under Carlosian law. In foreign affairs, Carloso has shifted from membership of the [[International Freedom Coalition]] (IFC), to geopolitical neutrality, to membership of [[Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation]] from 2017 onwards. Tobón has actively pursued an 'anti-globalist' and 'anti-liberal' foreign policy since then. After Tobón backtracked on his decision to step down as party leader in 2019, opting to run for another term as President of the Executive Council, there was some talk amongst backbenchers of a potential leadership challenge. Tobón's overwhelming popularity amongst party members and voters was apparent, however, and any prospect of a challenge to his position within National Salvation rapidly evaporated. | ||
Oppositon parties have struggled to eat away at National Salvation's popularity amidst constant infighting and organisational chaos. Left-leaning parties and aligned organisations have routinely protested in Carloso's major cities, accusing National Salvation of engaging in electoral intimidation. There have also been sporadic demonstrations against President Tobón's opposition to gay | Oppositon parties have struggled to eat away at National Salvation's popularity amidst constant infighting and organisational chaos. Left-leaning parties and aligned organisations have routinely protested in Carloso's major cities, accusing National Salvation of engaging in electoral intimidation. There have also been sporadic demonstrations against President Tobón's opposition to gay marriage, abortion and his election as President of the Executive Council. This has often manifested in the dissemination of unfounded conspirarcy theories by left-wing activists, including claims that the Nifonese government interfered in the 2015 general election on National Salvation's behalf. Attempts by the Conservative Party, Democratic Party and Socialist Republicans to form an alliance ahead of the 2017 provincial elections ended in failure. Since then, Democratic Party leader Elon Básaran had been negotiating an alliance between left-leaning parties such as the Socialist Republicans, Green Alternative, Communist Party and some independent National Assemblymen. In May 2020, Básaran suggested forming an electoral alliance called 'Republican Alternative', but this was rejected by Socialist Republican leader Mariah Contreras. | ||
==Electoral system== | ==Electoral system== | ||
Carloso is divided into 286 constituencies, each with three National Assemblymen each. Each seat approximately represents 420,000 people. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, | Carloso is divided into 286 constituencies, each with three National Assemblymen each. Each seat approximately represents 420,000 people. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, will be automatically re-elected. His constituency, [[Viruna's 8th National Assembly constituency]], will also get one extra seat to make up for the loss in representation during his tenure as Presiding Officer, bringing the total number of seats to 859. Due to this high representative-to-electorate ratio, it has been suggested to establish an upper house or double the size of the National Assembly. As with previous elections, the voting method used will be proportional representation with the single transferable vote (STV) and elimination transfers only. In this process, voters number candidates in order of preference. The ballot papers are counted continuously and the candidate with the lowest number of votes at the end of each count is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the other candidates according to the preferences of the voter. The process continues until the top three (or four) candidates are remaining and these then go forward to be elected National Assemblymen. Since its implementation in the 1955 election, the system has been regarded as being representative of the Carlosian electorate, giving a slight advantage to smaller parties. However, it also means majority governments in Carloso are somewhat uncommon, with the extraordinary exception of the National Salvation government since 2016. | ||
==Constituency changes== | ==Constituency changes== | ||
| Line 143: | Line 146: | ||
|} | |} | ||
</div> | </div> | ||
Since 2011, National Salvation has been the largest party in the National Assembly. In 2016 it managed to obtain a majority, one of the largest in Carlosian electoral history. In 2018 National Salvation also won two by-elections, increasing its majority by two seats. Despite the party's consistent and overwhelming popularity in election results and opinion polls, it is unlikely that National Salvation will be able to increase its majority any further, and it's primary focus will be to loose as few seats as possible and retain command of the National Assembly. It intends to run 572 candidates in total. Should it maintain its majority, then it is almost certain Cárlos Tobón will be sworn in for a third term as President of the Executive Council. [[Estebán Santander]] is likely to become Deputy President, succeeding | Since 2011, National Salvation has been the largest party in the National Assembly. In 2016 it managed to obtain a majority, one of the largest in Carlosian electoral history. In 2018 National Salvation also won two by-elections, increasing its majority by two seats. Despite the party's consistent and overwhelming popularity in election results and opinion polls, it is unlikely that National Salvation will be able to increase its majority any further, and it's primary focus will be to loose as few seats as possible and retain command of the National Assembly. It intends to run 572 candidates in total. Should it maintain its majority, then it is almost certain Cárlos Tobón will be sworn in for a third term as President of the Executive Council. [[Estebán Santander]] is likely to become Deputy President, succeeding Jorge Spalderán. The party has campaigned on its successful economic reforms since 2010, roleback of social liberalisation, proactive and assertive foreign policy; inclusive of Carloso's membership of the [[Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation]] (SACTO) since 2017, and zealous opposition to communist and progressive elements. | ||
Similiar to 2010 and 2015, Tobón has embarked on a campaign of mass rallies across Carloso. | Similiar to 2010 and 2015, Tobón has embarked on a campaign of mass rallies across Carloso. | ||
| Line 193: | Line 196: | ||
===Synarchist Union=== | ===Synarchist Union=== | ||
===Communist Party=== | ===Communist Party=== | ||
===Green Alternative=== | |||
<div style="float:right;"> | |||
{|class="wikitable sortable" | |||
|+ | |||
| colspan=7| [[File:Green Party Carloso.png|center|300px]] | |||
|- | |||
!colspan=4 class="unsortable"| Party | |||
!class="unsortable"|Leader | |||
!class="unsortable"|Deputy Leader | |||
!class="unsortable"|Campaign slogan | |||
|- | |||
| style="background:#1B4D3E;"| | |||
| colspan=3| Green Alternative | |||
| Benjamín Lacasa | |||
| TBD | |||
| Vote green.<br>(''TBD'') | |||
|- | |||
|} | |||
</div> | |||
===Other=== | ===Other=== | ||
| Line 204: | Line 227: | ||
| image1 = Flickr - europeanpeoplesparty - EPP Congress Bonn (630) (cropped).jpg | | image1 = Flickr - europeanpeoplesparty - EPP Congress Bonn (630) (cropped).jpg | ||
| image2 = Duarte Freitas PSD Acores 2015.png | | image2 = Duarte Freitas PSD Acores 2015.png | ||
| footer = Outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly | | footer = Outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly Jorge Moran (left), and Officer pro tempore Tomás Ocanas. | ||
}} | }} | ||
The election campaign formally began on 15 August 2020, when the first debate between the parties with seats in the National Assembly was aired lived on RTC 1. On 17 August outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, | The election campaign formally began on 15 August 2020, when the first debate between the parties with seats in the National Assembly was aired lived on RTC 1. On 17 August outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, stated he would contest the election and will therefore be automatically returned, presuming he is still in office on 11 November. | ||
===September=== | ===September=== | ||
| Line 260: | Line 283: | ||
| | | | ||
|- style="background:#EAFFEA;" | |- style="background:#EAFFEA;" | ||
| RTC/ACU | | RTC News/ACU | ||
| 11 November 2020 | | 11 November 2020 | ||
| TBA | | TBA | ||
| Line 288: | Line 311: | ||
| colspan="12" | '''Moratorium on opinion polling''' | | colspan="12" | '''Moratorium on opinion polling''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | RTC News/Melgar Analytics | ||
| 27 October 2020 | | 27 October 2020 | ||
| | | 1,458 | ||
| style="background:#C0DBFC" | ''' | | style="background:#C0DBFC" | '''51.1''' | ||
| | | 7.9 | ||
| | | 13.7 | ||
| | | 16.4 | ||
| | | 5.2 | ||
| | | 0.1 | ||
| | | 2.2 | ||
| | | 3.4 | ||
| style="background:#010720; color:white;"| ''' | | style="background:#010720; color:white;"| '''34.7''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| TBA | | TBA | ||
| Line 343: | Line 366: | ||
| 29 September 2020 | | 29 September 2020 | ||
| TBA | | TBA | ||
| style="background:#C0DBFC" | ''' | | style="background:#C0DBFC" | '''49.8''' | ||
| | | 8.1 | ||
| | | 13.7 | ||
| | | 16.4 | ||
| | | 5.7 | ||
| | | 0.1 | ||
| | | 2.4 | ||
| | | 3.8 | ||
| style="background:#010720; color:white;"| ''' | | style="background:#010720; color:white;"| '''33.4''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| TBA | | TBA | ||
| Line 866: | Line 889: | ||
==Debates== | ==Debates== | ||
===English-language=== | ===English-language=== | ||
{| class="wikitable" style="font-size:98%; text-align:center;" | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="12"| 2020 Carlosian general election debates | |||
|- | |||
!style="white-space:nowrap;" rowspan="3"| {{small|Date}}|| rowspan="3"| {{small|Broadcaster}} || rowspan="3"| {{small|Moderator(s)}} ||scope="col" colspan="6| {{small|Participants — }} {{Colors|black|#90ff90| Name }} {{small|Participant }} {{Colors|black|#ff9090| N }} {{small|Party not invited}} || rowspan="3"| {{small|Notes}} | |||
|- | |||
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|[[National Salvation (Carloso)|NS]]}} | |||
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|{{nowrap|[[Conservative Party (Carloso)|Con]]}}}} | |||
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|[[Democratic Party (Carloso)|Dem]]}} | |||
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|[[Socialist Republicans (Carloso)|SR]]}} | |||
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|{{nowrap|[[Synarchist Union (Carloso)|SU]]}}}} | |||
! scope="col" style="width:4em;"|{{small|[[Communist Party (Carloso)|Com]]}} | |||
|- | |||
! style="background:#010720;"| | |||
! style="background:#00326B;"| | |||
! style="background:#E3BC00;"| | |||
! style="background:#57000E;"| | |||
! style="background:#000000;"| | |||
! style="background:#8F0000;"| | |||
|- | |||
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| 6 October | |||
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| RTC | |||
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Tobón}}'''}} | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Casares}}'''}} | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Básaran}}'''}} | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Contreras}}'''}} | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Torrero}}'''}} | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Batias}}'''}} | |||
| The first debate was held at RTC's national studios in Madrigal. Casares and Batias were criticised for repeatedly interrupting President Tobón | |||
|- | |||
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA | |||
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA | |||
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Tobón}}'''}} | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Casares}}'''}} | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Básaran}}'''}} | |||
|{{No|'''{{small|Contreras}}'''}} | |||
|{{No|'''{{small|Torrero}}'''}} | |||
|{{No|'''{{small|Batias}}'''}} | |||
| Held on the campus of Arteida Circuit University, Secano with the leaders of the three largest parties in the National Assembly present. | |||
|- | |||
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| 5 November | |||
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA | |||
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| TBA | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Tobón}}'''}} | |||
|{{No|'''{{small|Casares}}'''}} | |||
|{{No|'''{{small|Básaran}}'''}} | |||
|{{Yes|'''{{small|Contreras}}'''}} | |||
|{{No|'''{{small|Torrero}}'''}} | |||
|{{No|'''{{small|Batias}}'''}} | |||
| National Salvation and the Socialist Republicans agreed to a debate between Tobón and Contreras. It is to be held on the campus of Ebon Metropolitan University. | |||
|- | |||
|} | |||
===Carlosian-language=== | ===Carlosian-language=== | ||
| Line 897: | Line 974: | ||
|572 | |572 | ||
|507 | |507 | ||
| | |510 | ||
|{{Composition bar|0|859|#010720|background-color=|per=1}} | |{{Composition bar|0|859|#010720|background-color=|per=1}} | ||
| | | | ||
| Line 972: | Line 1,049: | ||
|{{Composition bar|0|859|#1B4D3E|background-color=|per=1}} | |{{Composition bar|0|859|#1B4D3E|background-color=|per=1}} | ||
| | | | ||
|} | |} | ||
| Line 992: | Line 1,057: | ||
|rowspan=2|Party | |rowspan=2|Party | ||
|'''[[National Salvation (Carloso)|National Salvation]]''' | |'''[[National Salvation (Carloso)|National Salvation]]''' | ||
|'''[[ | |'''[[Socialist Republicans (Carloso)|Socialist Republicans]]''' | ||
|'''[[Democratic Party (Carloso)|Democratic Party]]''' | |'''[[Democratic Party (Carloso)|Democratic Party]]''' | ||
|'''[[Synarchist Union (Carloso)|Synarchist Union]]''' | |'''[[Synarchist Union (Carloso)|Synarchist Union]]''' | ||
|'''[[ | |'''[[Conservative Party (Carloso)|Conservative Party]]''' | ||
|'''[[Green Alternative (Carloso)|Green Alternative]]''' | |'''[[Green Alternative (Carloso)|Green Alternative]]''' | ||
|'''{{wpl|Independent politician|Independent}}''' | |||
|- | |- | ||
| style="background:#010720;"| | | style="background:#010720;"| | ||
| style="background:# | | style="background:#57000E;"| | ||
| style="background:#E3BC00;"| | | style="background:#E3BC00;"| | ||
| style="background:#000000;"| | | style="background:#000000;"| | ||
| style="background:# | | style="background:#00326B;"| | ||
| style="background:#1B4D3E;"| | | style="background:#1B4D3E;"| | ||
| style="background:{{Independent politician/meta/color}};"| | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Leader | |Leader | ||
|<small>[[Cárlos Tobón]]</small> | |<small>[[Cárlos Tobón]]</small> | ||
|<small>[[ | |<small>[[Mariah Contreras]]</small> | ||
|<small>[[Elon Básaran]]</small> | |<small>[[Elon Básaran]]</small> | ||
|<small>[[Damián Torrero]]</small> | |<small>[[Damián Torrero]]</small> | ||
|<small>[[ | |<small>[[Ferdinand Casares]]</small> | ||
|<small>[[Benjamín Lacasa]]</small> | |<small>[[Benjamín Lacasa]]</small> | ||
|<small>N/A</small> | |||
|- | |- | ||
|rowspan=2|1st preference<br />votes | |rowspan=2|1st preference<br />votes | ||
| Line 1,026: | Line 1,092: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||010720}}}} | |{{center|{{percentage bar|0||010720}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0|| | |{{center|{{percentage bar|0||57000E}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||E3BC00}}}} | |{{center|{{percentage bar|0||E3BC00}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||000000}}}} | |{{center|{{percentage bar|0||000000}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0|| | |{{center|{{percentage bar|0||00326B}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||1B4D3E}}}} | |{{center|{{percentage bar|0||1B4D3E}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar|0||DDDDDD}}}} | |||
|- | |- | ||
|rowspan=2|Seats | |rowspan=2|Seats | ||
| | |446 (51.92%) | ||
| | |149 (17.35%) | ||
| | |115 (13.39%) | ||
| | |52 (6.05%) | ||
| | |49 (5.7%) | ||
| | |18 (2.1%) | ||
| | |30 (3.49%) | ||
|- | |- | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar| | |{{center|{{percentage bar|51.92||010720}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar| | |{{center|{{percentage bar|17.35||57000E}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar| | |{{center|{{percentage bar|13.39||E3BC00}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar| | |{{center|{{percentage bar|6.05||000000}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar| | |{{center|{{percentage bar|5.7||00326B}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar| | |{{center|{{percentage bar|2.1||1B4D3E}}}} | ||
|{{center|{{percentage bar| | |{{center|{{percentage bar|3.49||DDDDDD}}}} | ||
|} | |} | ||
{{Kali Yuga timeline}} | {{Kali Yuga timeline}} | ||
[[Category:Carloso]] | [[Category:Carloso]] | ||
Latest revision as of 22:13, 5 September 2023
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858 of 859 seats in the National Assembly 430 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 77.4%  0.9 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| This article is part of a series on the politics and government of the Federal Republic of Carloso |
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The 2020 Carlosian general election took place on Friday, 11 November 2020. As with previous years, 858 of the 859 seats in the National Assembly were up for election. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran was automatically re-elected. The ruling National Salvation party won in a third consecutive electoral landslide, albeit with a reduced majority compared to 2015. The Socialist Republicans, led by Mariah Contreras, and the Democratic Party, led by Elon Básaran, both made significant gains. Support for the Conservative Party, traditionally Carloso's largest political party, collapsed to well below even its 2010 result, winning only 49 seats. The Synarchist Union also increased its number of seats, campaigning against vulnerable National Salvation candidates. The Communisty Party was wiped out amidst a wave of defections to the Socialist Republicans, and Green Alternative re-entered the National Assembly for the first time since its electoral wipeout in 2005. The number of independents increased slightly from 2015.
Led by President Cárlos Tobón, National Salvation sought to win a third term in government since the Corrective Revolution. The party campaigned heavily on its success in economic and social reforms. In foreign policy, Tobón championed Carloso's admission to the Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation (SACTO) and his opposition to globalism. Early in the campaign, it appeared that the results of the election would be similar to 2015, with the long-standing Conservative Party and Democratic Party making small gains. However, revelations that Raúl Figueroa, Deputy Leader of the Conservative Party, was being investigated by authorities for tax evasion and possession of illegal drugs led to a steady drop in support. Tobón was accused of being 'soft' on the CaBI19 pandemic, and the Synarchist Union benefitted from backlash towards his decision to provide medical assistance to the city-state of Kesslerstaadt. In the final weeks of the campaign, support for the Socialist Republicans grew significantly as Mariah Contreras emphasised herself as the best person to challenge Tobón. At the same time, support for National Salvation rebounded as Tobón embarked on an aggressive spree of rallies across the country. Nevertheless, there were fears that the country would end up with a hung National Assembly. The disparate opposition parties in the National Assembly hoped to deprive National Salvation of another majority, but failed in this objective.
Tobón was re-elected to a third term as President of the Executive Council, becoming the longest-serving head of government in Carloso's republican history. With Jorge Spalderán's decision to not seek a third term as Deputy President, Estebán Santander succeeded him. National Assemblymen who were successful in the election took their seats on 11 February 2021, forming the 44th National Assembly. Following the collapse in support for the Conservative Party, Ferdinand Casares immediately announced his resignation as leader. Orlin Almansar replaced him, and served as Senior Leader of the Oppositon for the remainder of the 43rd National Assembly. Upon the formation of the 44th National Assembly, Mariah Contreras succeeded Almansar and became the first woman to hold the role. As the leader of third-largest party, Elon Básaran remained Junior Leader of the Opposition.
Background
Functioning as a broad coalition of the right, National Salvation's time in government has been mostly focused on reversing the period of social and economic liberalisation which occured between 2001 and 2011. It became the largest party in the National Assembly in the aftermath of the 2010 general election and preceding Corrective Revolution. After securing a majority in the National Assembly at the 2015 general election, Tobón began to pursue a programme of tough social and administrative reforms, heavily regulating access to contraception, outlawing divorce and making the execution of an abortion a capital offence under Carlosian law. In foreign affairs, Carloso has shifted from membership of the International Freedom Coalition (IFC), to geopolitical neutrality, to membership of Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation from 2017 onwards. Tobón has actively pursued an 'anti-globalist' and 'anti-liberal' foreign policy since then. After Tobón backtracked on his decision to step down as party leader in 2019, opting to run for another term as President of the Executive Council, there was some talk amongst backbenchers of a potential leadership challenge. Tobón's overwhelming popularity amongst party members and voters was apparent, however, and any prospect of a challenge to his position within National Salvation rapidly evaporated.
Oppositon parties have struggled to eat away at National Salvation's popularity amidst constant infighting and organisational chaos. Left-leaning parties and aligned organisations have routinely protested in Carloso's major cities, accusing National Salvation of engaging in electoral intimidation. There have also been sporadic demonstrations against President Tobón's opposition to gay marriage, abortion and his election as President of the Executive Council. This has often manifested in the dissemination of unfounded conspirarcy theories by left-wing activists, including claims that the Nifonese government interfered in the 2015 general election on National Salvation's behalf. Attempts by the Conservative Party, Democratic Party and Socialist Republicans to form an alliance ahead of the 2017 provincial elections ended in failure. Since then, Democratic Party leader Elon Básaran had been negotiating an alliance between left-leaning parties such as the Socialist Republicans, Green Alternative, Communist Party and some independent National Assemblymen. In May 2020, Básaran suggested forming an electoral alliance called 'Republican Alternative', but this was rejected by Socialist Republican leader Mariah Contreras.
Electoral system
Carloso is divided into 286 constituencies, each with three National Assemblymen each. Each seat approximately represents 420,000 people. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, will be automatically re-elected. His constituency, Viruna's 8th National Assembly constituency, will also get one extra seat to make up for the loss in representation during his tenure as Presiding Officer, bringing the total number of seats to 859. Due to this high representative-to-electorate ratio, it has been suggested to establish an upper house or double the size of the National Assembly. As with previous elections, the voting method used will be proportional representation with the single transferable vote (STV) and elimination transfers only. In this process, voters number candidates in order of preference. The ballot papers are counted continuously and the candidate with the lowest number of votes at the end of each count is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the other candidates according to the preferences of the voter. The process continues until the top three (or four) candidates are remaining and these then go forward to be elected National Assemblymen. Since its implementation in the 1955 election, the system has been regarded as being representative of the Carlosian electorate, giving a slight advantage to smaller parties. However, it also means majority governments in Carloso are somewhat uncommon, with the extraordinary exception of the National Salvation government since 2016.
Constituency changes
The constituencies will be the same as they were at the 2015 general election.
Parties and candidates
National Salvation
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| Party | Leader | Deputy Leader | Campaign slogan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Salvation | Cárlos Tobón | Estebán Santander | Keep it Right. (Menténha a Direcha) | |||
Since 2011, National Salvation has been the largest party in the National Assembly. In 2016 it managed to obtain a majority, one of the largest in Carlosian electoral history. In 2018 National Salvation also won two by-elections, increasing its majority by two seats. Despite the party's consistent and overwhelming popularity in election results and opinion polls, it is unlikely that National Salvation will be able to increase its majority any further, and it's primary focus will be to loose as few seats as possible and retain command of the National Assembly. It intends to run 572 candidates in total. Should it maintain its majority, then it is almost certain Cárlos Tobón will be sworn in for a third term as President of the Executive Council. Estebán Santander is likely to become Deputy President, succeeding Jorge Spalderán. The party has campaigned on its successful economic reforms since 2010, roleback of social liberalisation, proactive and assertive foreign policy; inclusive of Carloso's membership of the Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation (SACTO) since 2017, and zealous opposition to communist and progressive elements.
Similiar to 2010 and 2015, Tobón has embarked on a campaign of mass rallies across Carloso.
Conservative Party
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| Party | Leader | Deputy Leader | Campaign slogan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | Ferdinand Casares | Raúl Figueroa | Back to Normal. (TBD) | |||
The Conservative Party is the second largest political party in Carloso. The party has struggled to distinguish itself from National Salvation, which has replaced the Conservatives as the major catch-all party of right-wing politics in the country. Despite recovering some seats at the 2015 general election, mainly at the expense of the embattled Socialist Republicans and Democratic Party; party membership has declined. Party leader Ferdinand Casares was chosen as a presidential candidate at the Conservative Electoral Convention on 28 July 2020.
Democratic Party
Socialist Republicans
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| Party | Leader | Deputy Leader | Campaign slogan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialist Republicans | Mariah Contreras | TBD | Modern Socialism. Modern Carloso. (TBD) | |||
Mariah Contreras has been a leader of the Socialist Republicans since 2 March 2019 and has steered the party in a more left-wing, populist direction. The party has sought to convert working class voters who have supported National Salvation in recent years. It has also benefitted from an influx of members and supporters from the Communist Party.
Synarchist Union
Communist Party
Green Alternative
 | ||||||
| Party | Leader | Deputy Leader | Campaign slogan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Alternative | Benjamín Lacasa | TBD | Vote green. (TBD) | |||
Other
Campaign
August
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The election campaign formally began on 15 August 2020, when the first debate between the parties with seats in the National Assembly was aired lived on RTC 1. On 17 August outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, stated he would contest the election and will therefore be automatically returned, presuming he is still in office on 11 November.
September
The 2020 National Salvation Electoral Convention is scheduled to begin on 1 September and will run until 4 September, where President Tobón will almost certainly be renominated as the party's candidate for President of the Executive Council. The format is expected to be substantially different from the 2015 convention,
October
November
Endorsements
Involvement of other countries
Politicians not standing
Opinion polling
Under present regulations, polling agencies are required to include all political parties which have obtained more than 0.2% of the first-preference vote as of the last general election, provided that party stood in at least 283 constituencies in 18 of Carloso's 24 provinces. Regionalist parties are excluded from national polls. Green Alternative obtained just over 0.2% of the vote in the last general election, and so is always included in national surveys.
2020
| Polling firm | Last day of polling | Sample size | 
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Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 general election | 11 November 2020 | – | |||||||||
| RTC News/ACU | 11 November 2020 | TBA | |||||||||
| Madrigal Times/MMU | 11 November 2020 | TBA | |||||||||
| Moratorium on opinion polling | |||||||||||
| RTC News/Melgar Analytics | 27 October 2020 | 1,458 | 51.1 | 7.9 | 13.7 | 16.4 | 5.2 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 34.7 |
| TBA | 20 October 2020 | TBA | TBA | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 13 October 2020 | TBA | TBA | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 6 October 2020 | TBA | TBA | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 29 September 2020 | TBA | 49.8 | 8.1 | 13.7 | 16.4 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 33.4 |
| TBA | 22 September 2020 | TBA | 50.1 | 8.2 | 13.2 | 16.1 | 5.8 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 34.0 |
| TBA | 15 September 2020 | TBA | 49.9 | 8.7 | 13.9 | 15.6 | 6.1 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 34.3 |
| TBA | 8 September 2020 | TBA | 50.2 | 9.3 | 13.4 | 15.3 | 5.9 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 34.9 |
| TBA | 1 September 2020 | TBA | 49.5 | 9.6 | 13.8 | 14.7 | 6.0 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 34.8 |
| TBA | 25 August 2020 | TBA | 48.2 | 9.8 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 7.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 33.0 |
| TBA | 18 August 2020 | TBA | 50.0 | 8.5 | 13.7 | 15.3 | 6.0 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 34.7 |
| TBA | 11 August 2020 | TBA | 49.6 | 9.1 | 14.9 | 14.3 | 5.7 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 34.7 |
| TBA | 4 August 2020 | TBA | 48.2 | 10.5 | 15.1 | 14.2 | 5.6 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 33.1 |
| TBA | 28 July 2020 | TBA | TBA | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 21 July 2020 | TBA | TBA | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 14 July 2020 | TBA | TBA | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 7 July 2020 | TBA | TBA | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 30 June 2020 | TBA | 46.1 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 23 June 2020 | TBA | 45.7 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 16 June 2020 | TBA | 45.9 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 9 June 2020 | TBA | 46.1 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 2 June 2020 | TBA | 47.1 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 26 May 2020 | TBA | 47.3 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 19 May 2020 | TBA | 46.9 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 12 May 2020 | TBA | 46.6 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 5 May 2020 | TBA | 46.8 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 28 April 2020 | TBA | 47.2 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 21 April 2020 | TBA | 47.1 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 14 April 2020 | TBA | 46.7 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 7 April 2020 | TBA | 46.3 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 31 March 2020 | TBA | 46.6 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 24 March 2020 | TBA | 46.7 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 17 March 2020 | TBA | 45.6 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 10 March 2020 | TBA | 50.2 | TBA | |||||||
| TBA | 3 March 2020 | TBA | 51.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | TBA | |||||
| TBA | 25 February 2020 | TBA | 51.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | TBA | |||||
| TBA | 18 February 2020 | TBA | 51.8 | 8.8 | 4.2 | TBA | |||||
| TBA | 11 February 2020 | TBA | 52.1 | 9 | 2.9 | TBA | |||||
| TBA | 4 February 2020 | TBA | 53.2 | 8.8 | 1.7 | TBA | |||||
| TBA | 28 January 2020 | TBA | 51.8 | 17.2 | 8.5 | 1.3 | TBA | ||||
| TBA | 21 January 2020 | TBA | 52.5 | 19.3 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 32.1 |
| TBA | 14 January 2020 | TBA | 55.3 | 20.4 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 34.9 |
| TBA | 7 January 2020 | TBA | 54.7 | 19.9 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 34.8 |
| 2015 general election | 11 November 2015 | – | 57.8 | 19.7 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 38.1 |
2019
Debates
English-language
| 2020 Carlosian general election debates | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Broadcaster | Moderator(s) | Participants — Name Participant N Party not invited | Notes | |||||||
| NS | Con | Dem | SR | SU | Com | ||||||
| 6 October | RTC | TBA | Tobón | Casares | Básaran | Contreras | Torrero | Batias | The first debate was held at RTC's national studios in Madrigal. Casares and Batias were criticised for repeatedly interrupting President Tobón | ||
| TBA | TBA | TBA | Tobón | Casares | Básaran | Contreras | Torrero | Batias | Held on the campus of Arteida Circuit University, Secano with the leaders of the three largest parties in the National Assembly present. | ||
| 5 November | TBA | TBA | Tobón | Casares | Básaran | Contreras | Torrero | Batias | National Salvation and the Socialist Republicans agreed to a debate between Tobón and Contreras. It is to be held on the campus of Ebon Metropolitan University. | ||
Carlosian-language
Results
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| Party | Leader | First-preference votes | Seats | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % FPv | Swing (pp) | Cand. | 2015 | Out. | Elected 2020 |
Change | |||
| National Salvation | Cárlos Tobón | 572 | 507 | 510 | 0 / 859 (0%)
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| Conservative Party | Ferdinand Casares | TBD | 183 | 181 | 0 / 859 (0%)
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| Democratic Party | Elon Básaran | TBD | 68 | 70 | 0 / 859 (0%)
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| Socialist Republicans | Mariah Contreras | TBD | 30 | 27 | 0 / 859 (0%)
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| Synarchist Union | Damián Torrero | TBD | 24 | 23 | 0 / 859 (0%)
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| Communist Party | Tómas Batias | TBD | 18 | 14 | 0 / 859 (0%)
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| Green Alternative | Benjamin Amaral | TBD | 0 | 0 | 0 / 859 (0%)
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| Party | National Salvation | Socialist Republicans | Democratic Party | Synarchist Union | Conservative Party | Green Alternative | Independent |
| Leader | Cárlos Tobón | Mariah Contreras | Elon Básaran | Damián Torrero | Ferdinand Casares | Benjamín Lacasa | N/A |
| 1st preference votes |
TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA |
| Seats | 446 (51.92%) | 149 (17.35%) | 115 (13.39%) | 52 (6.05%) | 49 (5.7%) | 18 (2.1%) | 30 (3.49%) |